Sunday 3:05 AM

Keep the 2-3-3 intact but the seven stays. 8-9 away. Three of spades lead. dec

   

Sunday 3:48 AM

Thought 2-8 or 2-9 were a little too cautious, which is something I'm often guilty of being.
A brave 8-9 today.

   

Sunday 4:10 AM

The Selke hold that he taught me. Congrats on your Consolation win yesterday, Dan!!! Good luck in the playfs of the second main today

   

Sunday 4:29 AM

Looks good for 8-9.

   

Sunday 4:40 AM

While Toss (2 9) might be sufficiently good enough in order for us as Pone to easily reach the Third Street Par Hole 70 with ease by completion of this deal, Toss (8 9) leaves us with a much superior hand, so I'll choose the latter over the former.

After the Jack Cut, we have Eight Points in Hand, and I'll lead a Trey.

Did RAS and I just possibly just post back-to-back 100% puzzles? We must be running low of ideas!

   

Sunday 4:55 AM

ATTENTION: Keep Bruce (Eolus) in your thoughts. He will be on a ventilator the next 4-5 days. I will update later in the week.

   

Sunday 5:15 AM

Keeping the 233 together

   

Sunday 6:09 AM

I like the 233 together and the 89 have the least chance of going *BOOM* in the crib. Lead the 3 and play cautious offense.

   

Sunday 6:26 AM

Every cut helps this hand and I don't want to miss out on the X cuts by breaking up the 233.

   

Sunday 6:37 AM

Me and my algo are with all the commentors.

   

Sunday 6:54 AM

Keep the run and minimize the crib. I think 2/3 is more dangerous than 3/3.

   

Sunday 7:43 AM

At this position, I tossed wide with (2 9). I can be content with my hand of (3 3 7 8). I am ensured of dealing from beyond hole 70, at the same time, I can play defensively since he is already short of his position. Unless he has a killer hand and crib, I should be dealing from a positional advantage next hand.

(8 9) is not a bad idea, holding (2 3 3 7), but I'll try to avoid tossing the touchies if there is a safer alternative.

Lead the 3H and only take safe pegs. I'd still triple here if he pairs my opening lead as this is what the percentages dictate, but part of me would be tempted to play off with the 7 as well, and I would have done so if dealer was a few pegs more advanced here.

   

Sunday 9:29 AM

We are +8. Dealer is -5. Our strategy is optimal. But I believe Halscrib will toss (8-9) on any strategy. What if we were dealing? The 2-3-3 is so powerful that we must toss (7-8). Remember the other day JQT said that (2-3) was almost always the best toss for Dealer. This is an exception. What if the hand was 2-3-3-7-8-8 and we are Pone? Again the 2-3-3 is so powerful that we must keep 2-3-3-7 and toss (8-8).

   

Sunday 9:30 AM

Bruce likes to remind us of where the score will if following the 26-Theory averages:

78*-81
94-91*
104*-107
120-117*

I see this as being somewhere between clear offense and clear defense. I'd normally choose defense, but I always choose defense, so today I want to try to jump on my advantage. I give up an extra point on average for 8-9 over 2-9, but gain an extra 2-points minimum as 2-3-3-7 is guaranteed to gain something from the cut.

Seeing the J cut, I'll peg cautiously, trying to pick up a few safe points. Lead a 3 and hope this isn't one of those 8-9 cribs that explode.

   

Sunday 9:41 AM

A quick look at the score suggests defense - we're 8 points beyond par and our opponent is 5 points short of his. But it is too early to take our surplus for granted and breaking up the 2-3-3 seems, to me, to be overly defensive and risk leaving us dealing from a shaky ~*73.

Toss 8-9 seems too dangerous, 2-7 and 2-9 seem too defensive. I take the toss I made to be a sort of goldilocks. The average hand score may mislead you to think it is, itself, too defensive, but look at the distribution. This keep is about 5% less likely than 3-3-7-8 to be worth 4 or less. It also has a solid ~18% chance to be worth 10 or 12 points, where 3-3-7-8 maxes out at 9 and only has a ~6.5% chance of hitting that.

Dealing with a positional advantage is good but you always have to remember how fragile that advantage is in as chancy a game as cribbage and with nearly half the game to go. The difference between a 6 or 7 point positional advantage and a 2 or 3 point advantage coming into third street could well decide the game.

With all that said, I do see the case for 3-3-7-8. I do not see a case for the other keeps. 8-9 is substantially more dangerous than 7-9. A "mere" 0.5 difference in crib values represents a much larger proportion of big cribs - swings in crib value are fairly small because cribs are so variable and 0.5 is a serious difference. It is not a good choice at this RP.

   

Sunday 11:11 AM

Don't need much here. So I will try to balk the crib.

   

Sunday 12:52 PM

With the majority here.

   

Sunday 4:32 PM

I'll examine 2-3-3-7 (8-9) and 2-7-8-9 (3-3):

2-3-3-7: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -1¾pts

2-7-8-9: 5pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -1½pts

Potential:

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 16xXs = 36 cuts.

2-7-8-9: Improves with 222, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts.

Position:

We only need 2pts to reach 3rd street positional hole while Dealer is 5pts short of it. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 2-3-3-7 will peg better than 2-7-8-9.

Summary:

2-7-8-9 is better for starting value by ¼pt but 2-3-3-7 has guaranteed improvement and 36 cuts for 8-12pts. It also should peg better. So I'll throw 8-9.

   

Sunday 4:41 PM

At 68-65* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total_____W4 %____W5 %
2-3-3-7____8.09+(-2.70)+(-5.26)= 0.13____48.3____64.1
3-3-8-9____6.02+(-2.26)+(-4.29)=(-0.53)___32.4____55.8
3-3-7-8____6.28+(-2.63)+(-4.29)=(-0.64)___34.7____57.7
2-3-3-8____6.22+(-2.46)+(-4.67)=(-0.91)___38.7____58.7
3-3-7-9____5.72+(-2.30)+(-4.33)=(-0.91)___31.2____54.9
2-3-3-9____8.00+(-2.37)+(-7.08)=(-1.45)___44.5____55.5
2-3H-7-8___5.33+(-2.63)+(-4.21)=(-1.51)___34.2____57.4
2-7-8-9____7.24+(-2.76)+(-6.16)=(-1.68)___38.0____54.1

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
2-3-3-7________28.9____19.1
3-3-8-9________25.1____26.8
3-3-7-8________25.2____25.2
2-3-3-8________27.1____23.9
3-3-7-9________25.0____27.7
2-3-3-9________36.0____27.2
2-3H-7-8_______25.9____25.7
2-7-8-9________32.6____28.9

2-3-3-7 is 0.66pt best for expected averages and is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the J cut I'll a 3 and play a SAFE strategy:

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3____________________(-2.33)
2____________________(-2.37)
7____________________(-2.77)