November 28, 2021

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
68-65*  ?
42%
18%
14%
9%
5%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 207
dec
5514 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Sunday 3:05 AM
Keep the 2-3-3 intact but the seven stays. 8-9 away. Three of spades lead. dec
james500
3111 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Sunday 3:48 AM
Thought 2-8 or 2-9 were a little too cautious, which is something I'm often guilty of being.
A brave 8-9 today.
Sally3
96 votes

Joined: October 2021

   
Sunday 4:10 AM
The Selke hold that he taught me. Congrats on your Consolation win yesterday, Dan!!! Good luck in the playfs of the second main today
Jazzselke says: Thanks!
Jazzselke says: Well I better choose the same combination!
Andy (muesli64)
2065 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Sunday 4:29 AM
Looks good for 8-9.
JQT
3338 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Sunday 4:40 AM
While Toss (2 9) might be sufficiently good enough in order for us as Pone to easily reach the Third Street Par Hole 70 with ease by completion of this deal, Toss (8 9) leaves us with a much superior hand, so I'll choose the latter over the former.

After the Jack Cut, we have Eight Points in Hand, and I'll lead a Trey.

Did RAS and I just possibly just post back-to-back 100% puzzles? We must be running low of ideas!
JQT says: If that 8 of Clubs were an 8 of Hearts, I wonder if that would tempt anyone to Toss (2 3) today?
MiketheExpert says: Strange enough, even though I picked the safest toss 2 9), holding both the flush and run of (7-8-9) is SO much better that it would probably entice me to throw (2-3)
Inushtuk1 says: Hey you guys. Someone should submit *that* as a CHOD puzzle. What the heck! I'll do it myself.
Jazzselke
1985 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Sunday 4:55 AM
ATTENTION: Keep Bruce (Eolus) in your thoughts. He will be on a ventilator the next 4-5 days. I will update later in the week.
scottcrib says: Thanks for letting us know.
Sally3 says: on no, no, no :(
Rosemarie44 says: Let's all send positive healing thoughts to Bruce for a quick recovery.
JQT says: New treatments and therapies are now available to help people in this difficult situation. Here on "Hand of the Day," Eolus619 has no pending puzzles in the current queue, but he did post the puzzle that appeared on these pages on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday 25 Nov 2021. He had posted a response two days prior on Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021, and we are all looking forward to more future activity from him. I especially enjoy it when he either comments on my occasional musical links, and when he adds some of his own. Let these be continued on into 2022!
MiketheExpert says: Sorry to hear that, my best thoughts are with him. Plus, I accidentally called him by the wrong name earlier on that day. So now I will remember Bruce for sure!
fentesk says: All the best to Bruce for a rapid and full recovery!
Inushtuk1 says: Best wishes to Bruce.
james500 says: In agreement all the kind comments above. Scary news for all his friends and family.
Ras2829 says: Sorry to hear of Bruce's condition. One very fine kind fellow for sure. Hope to see him back on CHOD very soon.
wasa
2224 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Sunday 5:15 AM
Keeping the 233 together
Gougie00
4894 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Sunday 6:09 AM
I like the 233 together and the 89 have the least chance of going *BOOM* in the crib. Lead the 3 and play cautious offense.
scottcrib
811 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Sunday 6:26 AM
Every cut helps this hand and I don't want to miss out on the X cuts by breaking up the 233.
usacoder
833 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Sunday 6:37 AM
Me and my algo are with all the commentors.
Fender Bass
210 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Sunday 6:54 AM
Keep the run and minimize the crib. I think 2/3 is more dangerous than 3/3.
MiketheExpert
302 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Sunday 7:43 AM
At this position, I tossed wide with (2 9). I can be content with my hand of (3 3 7 8). I am ensured of dealing from beyond hole 70, at the same time, I can play defensively since he is already short of his position. Unless he has a killer hand and crib, I should be dealing from a positional advantage next hand.

(8 9) is not a bad idea, holding (2 3 3 7), but I'll try to avoid tossing the touchies if there is a safer alternative.

Lead the 3H and only take safe pegs. I'd still triple here if he pairs my opening lead as this is what the percentages dictate, but part of me would be tempted to play off with the 7 as well, and I would have done so if dealer was a few pegs more advanced here.
JQT says: Although around 2% of the voters have chosen it as of 2:30 p.m. EST, nobody has posted comments after choosing Keep (2 3 7 8) and Toss (3 9) which, if one is seeking to minimize the Dealer's Crib, according to the tools by both C. Liam Brown and Craig Hessel this discard of Toss (3 9) actually has the lowest Crib Average (probably due to Negative Delta) today!
MiketheExpert says: It is an interesting pick, although only starting with 2 pts, it is guaranteed improvement to at least 4, whereas toss (2 9) starts with 4 pts, but does not get any improvement on an X-card cut. I'd still slightly rather start with the 4 pts, and get a few more helpful cuts other than the face cards in this situation. Horus93 below also makes an interesting decision, willing to toss (7 9), but not (8 9) as being too dangerous. My 2nd choice today would still be (8 9), as once again I'd rather start with the 4-pt hand, and perhaps the 0.5 pt or so difference between (7 9) and (8 9) is not enough for me to start with 2 points less. Both (3 9) and (7 9) are interesting decisions to me which I did not really take into consideration.
MiketheExpert says: The next batch of tosses which include (2 7), (3 9), and (7 9) I think are overall relatively close in value, so I suppose I'll lump these all into the "set of possibilities" here.
Inushtuk1
784 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Sunday 9:29 AM
We are +8. Dealer is -5. Our strategy is optimal. But I believe Halscrib will toss (8-9) on any strategy. What if we were dealing? The 2-3-3 is so powerful that we must toss (7-8). Remember the other day JQT said that (2-3) was almost always the best toss for Dealer. This is an exception. What if the hand was 2-3-3-7-8-8 and we are Pone? Again the 2-3-3 is so powerful that we must keep 2-3-3-7 and toss (8-8).
Inushtuk1 says: If dealing with 2-3-3-7-8-8, *then* dealer tosses (2-3).
fentesk
400 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Sunday 9:30 AM
Bruce likes to remind us of where the score will if following the 26-Theory averages:

78*-81
94-91*
104*-107
120-117*

I see this as being somewhere between clear offense and clear defense. I'd normally choose defense, but I always choose defense, so today I want to try to jump on my advantage. I give up an extra point on average for 8-9 over 2-9, but gain an extra 2-points minimum as 2-3-3-7 is guaranteed to gain something from the cut.

Seeing the J cut, I'll peg cautiously, trying to pick up a few safe points. Lead a 3 and hope this isn't one of those 8-9 cribs that explode.
horus93
776 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Sunday 9:41 AM
A quick look at the score suggests defense - we're 8 points beyond par and our opponent is 5 points short of his. But it is too early to take our surplus for granted and breaking up the 2-3-3 seems, to me, to be overly defensive and risk leaving us dealing from a shaky ~*73.

Toss 8-9 seems too dangerous, 2-7 and 2-9 seem too defensive. I take the toss I made to be a sort of goldilocks. The average hand score may mislead you to think it is, itself, too defensive, but look at the distribution. This keep is about 5% less likely than 3-3-7-8 to be worth 4 or less. It also has a solid ~18% chance to be worth 10 or 12 points, where 3-3-7-8 maxes out at 9 and only has a ~6.5% chance of hitting that.

Dealing with a positional advantage is good but you always have to remember how fragile that advantage is in as chancy a game as cribbage and with nearly half the game to go. The difference between a 6 or 7 point positional advantage and a 2 or 3 point advantage coming into third street could well decide the game.

With all that said, I do see the case for 3-3-7-8. I do not see a case for the other keeps. 8-9 is substantially more dangerous than 7-9. A "mere" 0.5 difference in crib values represents a much larger proportion of big cribs - swings in crib value are fairly small because cribs are so variable and 0.5 is a serious difference. It is not a good choice at this RP.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi horus93. Don't forget the negative delta of the (8-9), with us holding a 7. Not to mention all those X-cards, none of which we have seen so far.
31for14
502 votes

Joined: May 2019

   
Sunday 11:11 AM
Don't need much here. So I will try to balk the crib.
zeke76
1127 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Sunday 12:52 PM
With the majority here.
zeke76 says: Well plurality
Coeurdelion
4801 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Sunday 4:32 PM
I'll examine 2-3-3-7 (8-9) and 2-7-8-9 (3-3):

2-3-3-7: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.83) = -1¾pts

2-7-8-9: 5pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -1½pts

Potential:

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 16xXs = 36 cuts.

2-7-8-9: Improves with 222, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts.

Position:

We only need 2pts to reach 3rd street positional hole while Dealer is 5pts short of it. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 2-3-3-7 will peg better than 2-7-8-9.

Summary:

2-7-8-9 is better for starting value by ¼pt but 2-3-3-7 has guaranteed improvement and 36 cuts for 8-12pts. It also should peg better. So I'll throw 8-9.
HalscribCLX
4531 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Sunday 4:41 PM
At 68-65* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib____Total_____W4 %____W5 %
2-3-3-7____8.09+(-2.70)+(-5.26)= 0.13____48.3____64.1
3-3-8-9____6.02+(-2.26)+(-4.29)=(-0.53)___32.4____55.8
3-3-7-8____6.28+(-2.63)+(-4.29)=(-0.64)___34.7____57.7
2-3-3-8____6.22+(-2.46)+(-4.67)=(-0.91)___38.7____58.7
3-3-7-9____5.72+(-2.30)+(-4.33)=(-0.91)___31.2____54.9
2-3-3-9____8.00+(-2.37)+(-7.08)=(-1.45)___44.5____55.5
2-3H-7-8___5.33+(-2.63)+(-4.21)=(-1.51)___34.2____57.4
2-7-8-9____7.24+(-2.76)+(-6.16)=(-1.68)___38.0____54.1

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
2-3-3-7________28.9____19.1
3-3-8-9________25.1____26.8
3-3-7-8________25.2____25.2
2-3-3-8________27.1____23.9
3-3-7-9________25.0____27.7
2-3-3-9________36.0____27.2
2-3H-7-8_______25.9____25.7
2-7-8-9________32.6____28.9

2-3-3-7 is 0.66pt best for expected averages and is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-9 to discard.

After the J cut I'll a 3 and play a SAFE strategy:

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
3____________________(-2.33)
2____________________(-2.37)
7____________________(-2.77)
MiketheExpert says: I did have a feeling that HAL would select the (8 9) discard, but I have a hard time seeing the gap between this selection and all the rest of them to be this big, especially at this stage of the game. Shows what I know, sometimes!