Saturday 3:03 AM

Looking for X card. It’s do or die time. Drads looks like we’re dead.

Saturday 3:27 AM

As Pone needing Thirteen Points to WIN, we have to be very concerned with a Dealer sitting at Hole 105, and this is because our Opponent only requires Sixteen Points (or the Dealer Average) to 'swipe' this VICTORY right out from under our shocked noses.

Keep (5 5 T J) and Toss (6 7), with its instant Ten Holes of assurance ostensibly looks better than the Double Run after Keep (5 5 6 7) and Toss (T J), but I believe there is a 'trick' or illusion here. Let's figure this out!

Both Toss (6 7) and Toss (T J) start off with Zero Points in the Enemy Crib, but including Toss (3 4), these three "Discard Cousins" (as I have dubbed them), especially Toss (6 7), can often equal or exceed the Crib Value of many High PAIRS, such as Toss (K K), Toss (Q Q), and even Toss (T T) or Toss (A A).

Keep (5 5 6 7) is an especially interesting Hand, as it gets help from ALL BUT Four Cuts (the Aces), which means after Toss (T J), we'll begin with less than Ten Points only about 9% of the time!

This means that while Keep (5 5 T J) is indeed a wonderful Hand, Keep (5 5 6 7) is remarkably even better, and also, it allows us to throw the 'lesser of two evils' over the board in this very strategic endgame position.

Let's retain the Double Run and Toss (T J) today.

After the 8 Card Cut, we now hold a Dozen Points in our Hand, still needing to peg One Hole! Let's lead a 5 Card from our PAIR in order to retain the Maximum Variety, which should optimize our prospects for pegging that One Point we so desperately need to secure the WIN.

Saturday 3:28 AM

Initially two points fewer, but many more cuts for 12 points this way than with 5-5-T-J:

3,4,5,6,7,8 and X, (34), vs 5 and X, (16).

Saturday 3:33 AM

More cuts, more options to try to peg out whether we need one or three. Lead the five and hopefully we can get that seven for a one pointer. dec

Saturday 4:32 AM

Need 13 to win. Tempting to take the 10 and bet on a X cut. But if I take the 8 points, while there are a few less cuts that put me over outright, there are a lot more cuts to get points that get me up to 10 and 12 points. Combined with a better pegging hand, I'm doing at or better than keeping 55TJ. And final selling point, if I'm going to end up sitting at 120, I much rather put 10,J than 6,7 in dealer's crib.

Saturday 5:59 AM

If holding 5-5-10-J, twenty cards (5-5-9-9-9-9-10-10-10-J-J-J-Q-Q-Q-Q-K-K-K-K) give you the win outright (40%), plus there are seven more Spades not already accounted for (14%). If you hold 5-5-6-7, twelve cuts (4-4-4-4-5-5-6-6-6-7-7-7) give you the win (24%), twenty-two cuts (3-3-3-3-8-8-8-8-10-10-10-J-J-J-Q-Q-Q-Q-K-K-K-K) give you twelve points (44%), and eight cuts (2-2-2-2-9-9-9-9) give you ten points (16%). On this basis, 5-5-6-7 has an 84% to 54% advantage. But in my experience, it can be extremely hard to peg with 5-5-6-7, especially in end-game situations, so I am holding 5-5-10-J today and would dearly love for the dealer to be holding all face cards; the first pegging sequence (i.e., X-X-5-go-5) would give me the win. Other pegging combos work as well; for example: X-A-5-X-5. Barring this, I hope that the dealer hasn't added middle cards to the 6-7 I threw in her crib. (Sorry for the longer post today; I hope I got all the math right!)

Saturday 6:21 AM

A very interesting discussion about 6-7 verse 10-J. Only one cut misses the double run and 34 get me to at least 120 or out. If i miss on my keep points + pegging , at least the 10-J to dealer crib is a lower average and may help in holding dealer under 16 total points.

Saturday 6:30 AM

5567 benefits from everything except an ace. Lead the 7.

Saturday 8:12 AM

12 points so close !

Saturday 8:15 AM

I am coming late to the party today. Nice puzzle... The pair of 5s with two 10 cards looks attractive. But on this site, I have painfully learned reaching for bright and shiny things may not be the more profitable decision. Kept the double run and the cut is gravy.

Saturday 9:49 AM

This keep is almost equal to 5-5-10-J but, 10-J seems a little safer to the crib, if we miss.

Saturday 2:38 PM

I think its a straight choice between 5-5-6-7 (10-J) and 5-5-10-J (6-7):

5-5-6-7: 8pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = +2¼pts

5-5-10-J: 10pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = +4pts

Potential:

5-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xxs = 42 cuts = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17pts with 3333, 4444, 55, 666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 34 cuts.

5-5-10-J: Improves with 55, 9999 + 14xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 13/14/16/17/20pts with all cuts. Plus 11 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

We need 13pts to go out. If we hold 10pts with 5-5-10-J and don't get a cut then 3pts is a lot to peg as Pone. If we hold the double-run then there 42 cuts to improve and 34 cuts for 12pts or more. If we just achieve 12pts the 1pt is much more likely to be able to Peg.

Pegging:

I think 5-5-6-7 will peg better than 5-5-10-J.

Summary:

For all the above reasons I'll opt for throwing the 10-J.

Saturday 2:43 PM

At 108-105* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___Win %___Loss %
5-5-6-7____11.57+1.20+(-5.31)=7.46____68.8____31.2
5-5-10-J___11.43+1.26+(-5.72)=6.97____65.5____34.5

5-5-6-7 is better for expected averages by 0.49pt. and is better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s so I'll select 10-J to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead a 5 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
5_________________1.44
7_________________1.29
6_________________1.04

Saturday 3:33 PM

Funny looking J-10 discard... need correction all three parameters go in as a J-10 discard. Five lead still makes sense. dec