January 11, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by James500
72*-84  ?
57%
36%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 265
Sally3
96 votes

Joined: October 2021

   
Tuesday 3:16 AM
duh I saw the a446 and the flush...missed the a44 10
james500
3111 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Tuesday 3:41 AM
Both the flush and A44T are worth six points before the cut, and both guarantee a minimum of two points in the crib. I'm interested to see how close the voting goes, and what thoughts are in the minds of the commentators.
smokeytroll42
107 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Tuesday 4:34 AM
Really torn between the flush and A44T. Going with the flush for the slightly better A4 crib toss.
Andy (muesli64)
2065 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Tuesday 5:03 AM
There is nothing in it. But I need a 12 point hand so I am not keeping the flush.
scottcrib
811 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Tuesday 5:05 AM
I see this as similar to having an extra nickel or splitting my nickels and tossing one in the crib.
Sally3 says: CONGRATS on BRONZE last night in ACC, Scott :)
scottcrib says: Thanks Sally!
mfetchCT425
1042 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Tuesday 5:59 AM
This was close for me. Liked the A-4 in my crib slightly better than 6-9. But I liked the pegging potential better the other way and any face would have given us 10/12. The flush is helped by a bunch of cuts (A,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,J), and any club, but some of these only provide slight help. Nice puzzle James.
Jazzselke
1985 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Tuesday 6:02 AM
More cuts for 10 or more with an A, 4 or any of the remaining 15 face cards (20 cards). With the flush: 5, 6,9 and the 8 or J of clubs (12 cards).
Gougie00
4894 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Tuesday 6:35 AM
There really isnt a good answer for this puzzle. I will be giving up points to hold 6 measly points no matter what. I will chance the A4 and hope for useful starter.

A brisk 4 degrees here in northern Massachusetts. I suppose you have to expect that in January.
zeke76 says: Growing up in Michigan, weather maps always made the temps feel better. Everything to the West where the weather was coming from (WI. MN, the Dakotas, and Canadian Prairie Provinces) was substantially colder. Currently, I get a kick out of NYC weather forecasters that think anything in the 20s is brutal cold. If it has two digits and no negative sign in Fahrenheit, it isn't brutal.
Gougie00 says: Single digits means no snow. It has to get up to the mid-20s for snow to happen. Only gets this cold in the single digits in Northern Massachusetts a handful of times per year. Today is one of those days.
zeke76 says: Yeah, that was always the thing in Michigan. It was warmer but we got snow (Lake Effect). Chicago was much colder, but got very little snow. That said, it can snow in the single digits. Check out the Adirondacks weather. They get both snow and deep cold--regularly.
Sally3 says: Michigan here!
fentesk
400 votes

Joined: January 2021

   
Tuesday 6:39 AM
Prefer the A-4 over the 6-9 in the crib, so went this direction.
wasa
2224 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Tuesday 6:40 AM
I like the flush. A-4 to my crib is not bad either. Didn't really put the A-4-4-6 in the same class as either A-4-4-T or the flush.
zeke76
1127 votes

Joined: August 2018

   
Tuesday 6:41 AM
The expected averages before pegging between the A4 and 69 toss are within a tenth of a point. So which hold pegs better?
MiketheExpert
302 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Tuesday 6:46 AM
Although I "technically" maintain a positional advantage pending the results of this hand, I am still a dozen pts behind on the board, and I'm looking for the best chances of scoring an overall great hand to advance quickly, but at the same time my next goal is to hold pone to no more than his average. A 12-pt hand would be most valuable to me, so I will forgo the flush, although it may have more "cuts" to improve if you include all the suited clubs, keeping (A 4 4 10) while tossing the (6 9) seems to offer more opportunity for a MAX score.

Happy with my decision after the 10 cut and a 12-pt hand, and at least my 2-pt (6 9) throw in the crib with a "touching" cut card and possibilities to improve, I will slant towards defense and be opportunistic with the pegs, concentrating my next effort on being "stingy" with the pegs.
Fender Bass
210 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Tuesday 7:34 AM
two choices today. Prolly would have quickly tossed the 6/9 in a game but I thought about if for a minute and kept the flush.
dec
5514 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Tuesday 7:43 AM
In a game I like the 5 of clubs to help both hands. Sometimes in a game I would need some more time prob thirty seconds, no rush.dec
JQT
3338 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Tuesday 8:32 AM
As the Dealer, we are just beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70, but Pone is well within striking the Fourth Street Par Hole 96 by completion of this deal. We are therefore in a very difficult Relative Position.

This calls for some active DEFENSE during the pegging, so we want to be prepared after the Cut to peg very carefully.

We could retain the FLUSH and Toss (A 4) or we could Keep (A 4 4 T) and Toss (6 9). Both of these Crib Ideas seem weak, but I think Toss (A 4) might out-perform.

The issue is, however, will this particular FLUSH peg very defensively? Usually, a FLUSH is a good defensive option, but just because it's a FLUSH, does not necessarily mean it's a good defensive pegging hand!

I prefer Keep (A 4 4 T) and Toss (6 9) today, as it is more spread out, and should be better during the pegging. After the Ten "T" Card Cut, we'll plan to Play Off and reduce Pone's ability to peg.
zeke76 says: Thanks for the pegging analysis. I thought the AA4T would peg better, but I know flushes often peg well and my analysis of pegging is POOR.
MiketheExpert says: Agree it is better for defensive purposes, and beyond the better chances for a dozen, this is also another reason in favour of this keep at this very tenuous relative position.
Coeurdelion
4801 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Tuesday 3:09 PM
I think it's between the flush and A-4-4-10 (6-9):

4C-6-9-10: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

A-4-4-10: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

Potential:

4C-6-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/13pts with 5555, 666, 8888, 999, JJJJ = 18 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt. extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-4-4-10: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 44 + 15xXs = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts past positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be so I think we should play Defense.

Pegging:

The flush should peg well and be hard to read but playing Defense I think A-4-4-10 will peg slightly better.

Summary:

4C-6-9-10 and A-4-4-10 both have the same starting value (although Schell puts A-4-4-10 at 0.30pt better). A-4-4-10 also has slightly more cuts for improvement with 20 cuts for 10/12pts compared to 18 cuts for 9-13pts with the flush. So although the flush has an extra 0.20pt potential for a club cut I'll throw the 6-9 to my crib.
HalscribCLX
4531 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Tuesday 3:19 PM
At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-4-4-10___8.57+(-2.07)+5.11=11.61____15.4____30.9
4C-6-9-10__8.37+(-2.15)+5.27=11.49____15.2____30.8

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
A-4-4-10_______42.2____59.4
4C-6-9-10______42.9____60.0

A-4-4-10 is better for expected averages by 0.12pt. and is very slightly better for Win %s and very slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play a SAFE strategy to the lead.
Gougie00 says: Its a virtual wash. But the takeaway is tossing the 69 is the smarted play.
Ras2829
4343 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Tuesday 4:14 PM
N/D of this hand needs to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99) for upcoming deal. So, it's defense at all decison points, play off the lead, take safe pegs. The A-4-4-10 gives up fewer pegs by just a bit, has a bit of an edge on both potential hand and crib values. The choice of defense is further emphasized in knowing that dealer has 12 points in hand, one guaranteed peg, and a minimum of two in the crib. Two-four pegs would be a nice thing for dealer if can be taken with reasonable safety.
Ras2829 says: I dealer only gets that minimum peg; next hand will be at least hole 87. So, play SAFE as HalscribCLX admonishes.