Tuesday 3:16 AM

duh I saw the a446 and the flush...missed the a44 10

   

Tuesday 3:41 AM

Both the flush and A44T are worth six points before the cut, and both guarantee a minimum of two points in the crib. I'm interested to see how close the voting goes, and what thoughts are in the minds of the commentators.

   

Tuesday 4:34 AM

Really torn between the flush and A44T. Going with the flush for the slightly better A4 crib toss.

   

Tuesday 5:03 AM

There is nothing in it. But I need a 12 point hand so I am not keeping the flush.

   

Tuesday 5:05 AM

I see this as similar to having an extra nickel or splitting my nickels and tossing one in the crib.

   

Tuesday 5:59 AM

This was close for me. Liked the A-4 in my crib slightly better than 6-9. But I liked the pegging potential better the other way and any face would have given us 10/12. The flush is helped by a bunch of cuts (A,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,J), and any club, but some of these only provide slight help. Nice puzzle James.

   

Tuesday 6:02 AM

More cuts for 10 or more with an A, 4 or any of the remaining 15 face cards (20 cards). With the flush: 5, 6,9 and the 8 or J of clubs (12 cards).

   

Tuesday 6:35 AM

There really isnt a good answer for this puzzle. I will be giving up points to hold 6 measly points no matter what. I will chance the A4 and hope for useful starter.

A brisk 4 degrees here in northern Massachusetts. I suppose you have to expect that in January.

   

Tuesday 6:39 AM

Prefer the A-4 over the 6-9 in the crib, so went this direction.

   

Tuesday 6:40 AM

I like the flush. A-4 to my crib is not bad either. Didn't really put the A-4-4-6 in the same class as either A-4-4-T or the flush.

   

Tuesday 6:41 AM

The expected averages before pegging between the A4 and 69 toss are within a tenth of a point. So which hold pegs better?

   

Tuesday 6:46 AM

Although I "technically" maintain a positional advantage pending the results of this hand, I am still a dozen pts behind on the board, and I'm looking for the best chances of scoring an overall great hand to advance quickly, but at the same time my next goal is to hold pone to no more than his average. A 12-pt hand would be most valuable to me, so I will forgo the flush, although it may have more "cuts" to improve if you include all the suited clubs, keeping (A 4 4 10) while tossing the (6 9) seems to offer more opportunity for a MAX score.

Happy with my decision after the 10 cut and a 12-pt hand, and at least my 2-pt (6 9) throw in the crib with a "touching" cut card and possibilities to improve, I will slant towards defense and be opportunistic with the pegs, concentrating my next effort on being "stingy" with the pegs.

   

Tuesday 7:34 AM

two choices today. Prolly would have quickly tossed the 6/9 in a game but I thought about if for a minute and kept the flush.

   

Tuesday 7:43 AM

In a game I like the 5 of clubs to help both hands. Sometimes in a game I would need some more time prob thirty seconds, no rush.dec

   

Tuesday 8:32 AM

As the Dealer, we are just beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70, but Pone is well within striking the Fourth Street Par Hole 96 by completion of this deal. We are therefore in a very difficult Relative Position.

This calls for some active DEFENSE during the pegging, so we want to be prepared after the Cut to peg very carefully.

We could retain the FLUSH and Toss (A 4) or we could Keep (A 4 4 T) and Toss (6 9). Both of these Crib Ideas seem weak, but I think Toss (A 4) might out-perform.

The issue is, however, will this particular FLUSH peg very defensively? Usually, a FLUSH is a good defensive option, but just because it's a FLUSH, does not necessarily mean it's a good defensive pegging hand!

I prefer Keep (A 4 4 T) and Toss (6 9) today, as it is more spread out, and should be better during the pegging. After the Ten "T" Card Cut, we'll plan to Play Off and reduce Pone's ability to peg.

   

Tuesday 3:09 PM

I think it's between the flush and A-4-4-10 (6-9):

4C-6-9-10: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 11¼pts

A-4-4-10: 6pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 11¼pts

Potential:

4C-6-9-10: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/13pts with 5555, 666, 8888, 999, JJJJ = 18 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt. extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-4-4-10: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 7777 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12pts with AAA, 44 + 15xXs = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts past positional hole and Pone is 2pts short of where they would like to be so I think we should play Defense.

Pegging:

The flush should peg well and be hard to read but playing Defense I think A-4-4-10 will peg slightly better.

Summary:

4C-6-9-10 and A-4-4-10 both have the same starting value (although Schell puts A-4-4-10 at 0.30pt better). A-4-4-10 also has slightly more cuts for improvement with 20 cuts for 10/12pts compared to 18 cuts for 9-13pts with the flush. So although the flush has an extra 0.20pt potential for a club cut I'll throw the 6-9 to my crib.

   

Tuesday 3:19 PM

At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-4-4-10___8.57+(-2.07)+5.11=11.61____15.4____30.9
4C-6-9-10__8.37+(-2.15)+5.27=11.49____15.2____30.8

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
A-4-4-10_______42.2____59.4
4C-6-9-10______42.9____60.0

A-4-4-10 is better for expected averages by 0.12pt. and is very slightly better for Win %s and very slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play a SAFE strategy to the lead.

   

Tuesday 4:14 PM

N/D of this hand needs to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99) for upcoming deal. So, it's defense at all decison points, play off the lead, take safe pegs. The A-4-4-10 gives up fewer pegs by just a bit, has a bit of an edge on both potential hand and crib values. The choice of defense is further emphasized in knowing that dealer has 12 points in hand, one guaranteed peg, and a minimum of two in the crib. Two-four pegs would be a nice thing for dealer if can be taken with reasonable safety.