January 13, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
11*-15  ?
54%
28%
11%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 264
Inushtuk1Three viable options. Two potential crib flushes.
JQT
3542 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 3:00 AM
We are just Flailing our Floundering Way along on First Street (FoFWaoFS) at Hole 11 while Pone is Eating Our Lunch and Chomping at the Bit while sitting at that half-way station at Hole 15 on First Street. It's enough to make even a calm mind stutter.

This means that while we are now Dealer and Seven Holes 'shy' of having yet reached the First Street Par Hole 18, our Opponent will almost do so with certainty, and in fact become the First Dealer at or beyond this much-coveted target.

And, while we can do little or nothing to prevent this, what we can do to mitigate this 'gloom and doom' reality and perhaps, as Thoreau would admonish us, is to at least try to avoid the beginnings of evil, and thus let us attempt to score as much as possible ourselves in the interim struggle.

How might we do this, given that we dealt ourselves this maddening arrangement of cards, which has a 2-3-4 Run that might stand well alongside either a 6 Card with Toss (9 9), or even possibly do better dwelling alongside a 9 Card after we Toss (6 9), or; perchance we instead might retain a 6-9-9 trio while enjoying a splendid Toss (2 3) accoutrement, and embellish ourselves with all that this entails!?

I'm surprised that we don't have a Deuce of Clubs here instead of the Deuce of Spades, to add more complexity and further FLUSH our confusion! But let's not give this 'Mike the Man' guy any (more) gruesome ideas!

Once upon a moment in space and in time, I made the strangest statement ever uttered in all of Cribbagedom (and I assure you that I was NOT being sarcastic or facetious): "As the Dealer in Cribbage, any time Toss (2 3) is indeed possible, a player might actually just do so, and probably be none the worse for it in the end." And lo and behold: I think this puzzle arrangement could be "Exhibit A" with regards to my hypothesis!

Why study this crazy, silly card game for five decades, and read all of those massive missives, those treacherous tombs and treatises on Cribbage, when we can just resort to "Pithy Plinths and Pleasing Platitudes" and a "Rules-Based Debauchery" of the Fleshing Out of the game of Cribbage, and just say, if you can Toss (2 3), do so?! If it precludes us from having to analyze the subtleties of Toss (9 9) vs Toss (6 9), and from even having to consider the vagaries of Toss (3 4), I mean, why NOT?! (Note: This entire paragraph should probably be a footnote. So much for trying to keep it under five hundred words; how does this keep happening?!)

Actually, both "Schools of Thought" scream out at us today, and they both beseech us to Toss (2 3) today. It's not only our Gut-Based Mantra to "Toss-Two-Three," but it's also well-known that Toss (2 3) is a clear Two Points superior in Crib Value to anything alongside a 9 Card (unless said Nifty 9 Card can be 'packed away' with a Heavenly 5 Card), and so: our work is done here before it even got started!

The discard maketh itself in its own manner, and playeth itself also goeth the pegging.
Inushtuk1 says: "I'm surprised that we don't have a Deuce of Clubs..." Hey don't blame me. I didn't make this one up. Mr Colvert did. I just didn't agree with him is all. Always a risky business I know.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. What do you think of Dan's idea, of keeping the 2-3-4-9, if on defense this cold morning?
JQT says: I think it might depend greatly upon what we are defending. Let me explain: If we were merely skirmishing over a Relative Position with regards to a Critical Zone early on in a game, say in a tussle surrounding the First or Second Street Par Hole, then similar as in our desire for adopting an Offensive Posture in today's Relative Position, the Toss (2 3) Dealer Crib is just so much stronger than that of Toss (9 9) or Toss (6 9), that Toss (2 3) is actually still best for DEFENSE as well as OFFENSE, in that it should put us that much further ahead of our Opponent by completion of this deal. However, if we were to define our Defensive Stand (yes, even and especially upon this cold morning) as during that of an Endgame Pegging Battle, in which we were concerned with how many *absolute* (as opposed to relative) pegs we surrender to Pone, now I actually believe that Keep (2 4 9 9) and Toss (3 6) choice begins to have some real value or merit for DEFENSIVE pegging. This might be therefore termed as "SAFE" rather than DEFENSE by the program, if we were 'way down yonder' on Fourth Street at say (108*-111), still Dealer, and still trailing by a few holes, but now having to "Boldly Defend" the Finish Line and attempt to prevail and WIN. In this kind of Endgame Battle scenario, now we are less concerned with the relative strength of the more powerful Toss (2 3) Crib, and more concerned with not getting all 'jammed up' during the pegging. I don't see Keep (2 3 4 9) ever really being any better while defensively pegging as any hand with a PAIR in it; remember, "Safety in Numbers" is a proven pegging avoidance tactic! A RUN with one 'out' card is not really very safe: after all, if Pone leads a "Small" Card, we would have to reply with the 'out' card, and then we are 'stuck' trying to peg defensively with 2-3-4! Even Keep (2 6 9 9) is much safer, and as long as we didn't need the points in the Crib, I'd probably retain this bunch before I would ever consider holding either Keep (2 3 4 9) or Keep (2 3 4 6) in a defensive Endgame Pegging Battle!
james500
3308 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Thursday 3:06 AM
I wouldn't keep the run here.
Andy (muesli64)
2118 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 3:52 AM
I will follow the 'rules' regarding 2-3 but I can see that keeping the 2-3-4-6 would be a better pegging hand. This problem is too close to call!!
Sally3
254 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 3:54 AM
A favorite hand, so I gravitated towards it. Never even considered the 4699, so will learn today.
dec
5721 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 4:07 AM
The 2-3-4-6 keep is better as a pegging hand for non-dealer. So, it's the 2-3 for me and play off on the pegging and hopefully await that dozen in the crib. dec
joekayak
1724 votes

Joined: May 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 4:11 AM
2-3 too powerful a throw to dealer crib to pass up.
mrob2199
1028 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 4:17 AM
Like the 2/3 to the crib here-breaking up the 699 would create negative delta to the crib-a 2 or 4 cut would hit the spot today
smokeytroll42
151 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 4:18 AM
Keeping 2-3-4-9 for great improvement potential.
Jazzselke
2141 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 4:20 AM
2349 can be a great pegging hand for the dealer, with a magic 11 and possible 5 trap with the 34. But when you have a close call and one of the options is 23, that is very often the answer and my choice here with points to be made up. (Although DeLynn does choose 69 in his book). If we were in a defensive position I would retain the 2349.
Jazzselke says: Last 5 posters almost at the same time
Inushtuk1 says: I should have known Dan Selke would spot this. Dan did you spot yesterday's as well? All I did yesterday was change it to being Dealer as opposed to Pone.
Jazzselke says: I did not remember yesterday's. But I had the exact hand on eCribbage last night and parlayed all 3 aces!
Inushtuk1 says: That's so great when that happens. I don't suppose you trapped Pone's case Ace?
Jazzselke says: Nope. Still 10 pegs to 0.
Sally3 says: Too much thinking on your vacation lol
Rosemarie44
2020 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 5:15 AM
Prefer tossing 2-3 which is valued at over 7 points. This hand also starts at 6 points vs. 5 points if choosing 2346. But to choose the hand that increases with every cut we have to accept the pair of nines.
Dealer needs to catch up on first street.
zeke76
1163 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Thursday 5:24 AM
Seems pretty clear.
scottcrib
1011 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 5:48 AM
Hmmm, my inexperience is showing here.
Fender Bass says: Ya scratching my head, too.
mfetchCT425
1149 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Thursday 6:06 AM
2-3 in our crib too powerful to pass up here. Agree with Dan above if we needed a strong defensive pegging hand, 2-3-4-9, might be the way to go.
Inushtuk1
913 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Thursday 6:51 AM
Yes. (2-3) almost always the right toss. And it’s even suited today. What could possibly go wrong? Well, DeLynn chose the suited (6-9). Actually I like the 2-3-4-6(9-9) if there were no suited discards. 2-3-4-6 may be better for Pone, but it’s still a Magic 11, and improves on all cuts.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 7:03 AM
Hmmm...I thought this would be the most preferred way this morning.
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 7:06 AM
Okay, we keep the run which includes a 15 and throw points into our crib. I still like it.
wasa
2425 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Thursday 7:23 AM
I love the 2-3-4-6 as pone - not as much as dealer. The 2-3 is just so powerful in my crib that it's hard to toss a pair (let alone a pair of 9s) instead of a 2-3. Cut favours those tossing the 9s but my ESP wasn't working this morning
MiketheExpert
504 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 7:50 AM
Can't pass up the 2nd strongest crib throw (2 3) and the starting 6 pts here, imo. For pegging purposes, keeping a hand such as (2 3 4 6) is better as pone than as dealer, and the cut cards which will form this into a double run could be just as or more useful for the crib after tossing (2 3). The combined value is quite superior for playing offense in this situation, and I'm looking for a hand that is ideally well above average.

After 4 cut, although I have missed on a double-run in the hand and a dozen pts, our (2-3-4) run puts us in great shape for the crib. Fifteen a 6 lead, and I would probably pair a 9 opening lead here rather than playing the 6 for 15. However, I might hesitate on pairing a 4 lead, as the rest of my hand becomes quite dangerous if pone should be able to triple this.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Mike for pointing out the danger of pairing the 4 lead. This is where I am weak in pegging. . I don't think far enough ahead.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Mike. This decision is also made a little tougher by the fact that the cut card is also a 4, so he would have to have the "case" 4 in order to triple it, but nevertheless it still exists for the one card remaining. Sometimes playing the "safe" 9 could be best as a pre-caution depending on our absolute need for scoring pts, and it is still early being the 2nd hand of the game. Also, if pone happens to decide to pair after we respond with the 9, (4-9-9), then of course we have another 9 for 31-8!. So we have transferred the pressure/risk of pegging onto the other side :-)
Inushtuk1 says: Duly noted. I think the computer will show that the top three picks will be close.
jmudge
469 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Thursday 8:48 AM
Went with the 2 3 into the crib. Hope everyone is staying warm.
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Thursday 8:50 AM
My cribbage algorithm scores this as almost a tie with the 2-3 toss. The 9's toss gets a 16.58 score, while the 2-3 toss scores an average of 16.57.

With the 4 turn-card, that helps a lot to get to the possible 16 points.
Gougie00
5097 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Thursday 8:54 AM
I wasn't crazy about tossing myself 69 or 99, so I tossed 2-3 instead and will hope for some pin action in the crib. Admittedly, had I known the 4 would be the starter, then I would have tossed 69 suited. The problem is the back of the cards are all the same, and you cannot tell until you flip them over.
winesteward48
275 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Thursday 10:25 AM
One of the challenges in this great game is keeping a poker face when discarding 2-3 or 5-5 into your own crib.
Coeurdelion
4997 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Thursday 5:14 PM
I think it's likely to be between 2-3-4-6 (9-9), 2-3-4-9D (6-9) or 4-6-9-9 (2-3):

2-3-4-6: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 10¼pts

2-3-4-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 10¼pts

4-6-9-9: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4-6: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/11/12pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 99 = 18 cuts.

2-3-4-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 666, 99 = 18 cuts.

4-6-9-9: Improves with 222, 444, 5555, 666, 99 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 10/11/12pts with 222, 5555, 666, 99 = 12 cuts.

Position:

It looks like we were First Pone and scored 1pt more than average while First Dealer scored 1pt fewer. Positionally we are still well behind so I'll continue to play Offense..

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 2-3-4-6 will peg best with lower cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

4-6-9-9 is best for starting value by 2½pts but it has few cuts for improvement and 12 cuts for 10-12pts. 2-3-4-6 is guaranteed improvement and has 18 cuts for 9-12pts. Also it will peg best. So will this catch up the 2½pts? I think it may well so I'll throw the 9-9.
Sally3 says: I feel better now lol. I lalways learn a lot from the way you break down into your 3 P's: Potential, Position and Pegging. Thanks much :)