Thursday 3:00 AM

We are just Flailing our Floundering Way along on First Street (FoFWaoFS) at Hole 11 while Pone is Eating Our Lunch and Chomping at the Bit while sitting at that half-way station at Hole 15 on First Street. It's enough to make even a calm mind stutter.

This means that while we are now Dealer and Seven Holes 'shy' of having yet reached the First Street Par Hole 18, our Opponent will almost do so with certainty, and in fact become the First Dealer at or beyond this much-coveted target.

And, while we can do little or nothing to prevent this, what we can do to mitigate this 'gloom and doom' reality and perhaps, as Thoreau would admonish us, is to at least try to avoid the beginnings of evil, and thus let us attempt to score as much as possible ourselves in the interim struggle.

How might we do this, given that we dealt ourselves this maddening arrangement of cards, which has a 2-3-4 Run that might stand well alongside either a 6 Card with Toss (9 9), or even possibly do better dwelling alongside a 9 Card after we Toss (6 9), or; perchance we instead might retain a 6-9-9 trio while enjoying a splendid Toss (2 3) accoutrement, and embellish ourselves with all that this entails!?

I'm surprised that we don't have a Deuce of Clubs here instead of the Deuce of Spades, to add more complexity and further FLUSH our confusion! But let's not give this 'Mike the Man' guy any (more) gruesome ideas!

Once upon a moment in space and in time, I made the strangest statement ever uttered in all of Cribbagedom (and I assure you that I was NOT being sarcastic or facetious): "As the Dealer in Cribbage, any time Toss (2 3) is indeed possible, a player might actually just do so, and probably be none the worse for it in the end." And lo and behold: I think this puzzle arrangement could be "Exhibit A" with regards to my hypothesis!

Why study this crazy, silly card game for five decades, and read all of those massive missives, those treacherous tombs and treatises on Cribbage, when we can just resort to "Pithy Plinths and Pleasing Platitudes" and a "Rules-Based Debauchery" of the Fleshing Out of the game of Cribbage, and just say, if you can Toss (2 3), do so?! If it precludes us from having to analyze the subtleties of Toss (9 9) vs Toss (6 9), and from even having to consider the vagaries of Toss (3 4), I mean, why NOT?! (Note: This entire paragraph should probably be a footnote. So much for trying to keep it under five hundred words; how does this keep happening?!)

Actually, both "Schools of Thought" scream out at us today, and they both beseech us to Toss (2 3) today. It's not only our Gut-Based Mantra to "Toss-Two-Three," but it's also well-known that Toss (2 3) is a clear Two Points superior in Crib Value to anything alongside a 9 Card (unless said Nifty 9 Card can be 'packed away' with a Heavenly 5 Card), and so: our work is done here before it even got started!

The discard maketh itself in its own manner, and playeth itself also goeth the pegging.

   

Thursday 3:06 AM

I wouldn't keep the run here.

   

Thursday 3:52 AM

I will follow the 'rules' regarding 2-3 but I can see that keeping the 2-3-4-6 would be a better pegging hand. This problem is too close to call!!

   

Thursday 3:54 AM

A favorite hand, so I gravitated towards it. Never even considered the 4699, so will learn today.

   

Thursday 4:07 AM

The 2-3-4-6 keep is better as a pegging hand for non-dealer. So, it's the 2-3 for me and play off on the pegging and hopefully await that dozen in the crib. dec

   

Thursday 4:11 AM

2-3 too powerful a throw to dealer crib to pass up.

   

Thursday 4:17 AM

Like the 2/3 to the crib here-breaking up the 699 would create negative delta to the crib-a 2 or 4 cut would hit the spot today

   

Thursday 4:18 AM

Keeping 2-3-4-9 for great improvement potential.

   

Thursday 4:20 AM

2349 can be a great pegging hand for the dealer, with a magic 11 and possible 5 trap with the 34. But when you have a close call and one of the options is 23, that is very often the answer and my choice here with points to be made up. (Although DeLynn does choose 69 in his book). If we were in a defensive position I would retain the 2349.

   

Thursday 5:15 AM

Prefer tossing 2-3 which is valued at over 7 points. This hand also starts at 6 points vs. 5 points if choosing 2346. But to choose the hand that increases with every cut we have to accept the pair of nines.
Dealer needs to catch up on first street.

   

Thursday 5:24 AM

Seems pretty clear.

   

Thursday 5:48 AM

Hmmm, my inexperience is showing here.

   

Thursday 6:06 AM

2-3 in our crib too powerful to pass up here. Agree with Dan above if we needed a strong defensive pegging hand, 2-3-4-9, might be the way to go.

   

Thursday 6:51 AM

Yes. (2-3) almost always the right toss. And it’s even suited today. What could possibly go wrong? Well, DeLynn chose the suited (6-9). Actually I like the 2-3-4-6(9-9) if there were no suited discards. 2-3-4-6 may be better for Pone, but it’s still a Magic 11, and improves on all cuts.

   

Thursday 7:03 AM

Hmmm...I thought this would be the most preferred way this morning.

   

Thursday 7:06 AM

Okay, we keep the run which includes a 15 and throw points into our crib. I still like it.

   

Thursday 7:23 AM

I love the 2-3-4-6 as pone - not as much as dealer. The 2-3 is just so powerful in my crib that it's hard to toss a pair (let alone a pair of 9s) instead of a 2-3. Cut favours those tossing the 9s but my ESP wasn't working this morning

   

Thursday 7:50 AM

Can't pass up the 2nd strongest crib throw (2 3) and the starting 6 pts here, imo. For pegging purposes, keeping a hand such as (2 3 4 6) is better as pone than as dealer, and the cut cards which will form this into a double run could be just as or more useful for the crib after tossing (2 3). The combined value is quite superior for playing offense in this situation, and I'm looking for a hand that is ideally well above average.

After 4 cut, although I have missed on a double-run in the hand and a dozen pts, our (2-3-4) run puts us in great shape for the crib. Fifteen a 6 lead, and I would probably pair a 9 opening lead here rather than playing the 6 for 15. However, I might hesitate on pairing a 4 lead, as the rest of my hand becomes quite dangerous if pone should be able to triple this.

   

Thursday 8:48 AM

Went with the 2 3 into the crib. Hope everyone is staying warm.

   

Thursday 8:50 AM

My cribbage algorithm scores this as almost a tie with the 2-3 toss. The 9's toss gets a 16.58 score, while the 2-3 toss scores an average of 16.57.

With the 4 turn-card, that helps a lot to get to the possible 16 points.

   

Thursday 8:54 AM

I wasn't crazy about tossing myself 69 or 99, so I tossed 2-3 instead and will hope for some pin action in the crib. Admittedly, had I known the 4 would be the starter, then I would have tossed 69 suited. The problem is the back of the cards are all the same, and you cannot tell until you flip them over.

   

Thursday 10:25 AM

One of the challenges in this great game is keeping a poker face when discarding 2-3 or 5-5 into your own crib.

   

Thursday 5:14 PM

I think it's likely to be between 2-3-4-6 (9-9), 2-3-4-9D (6-9) or 4-6-9-9 (2-3):

2-3-4-6: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.16) = 10¼pts

2-3-4-9: 5pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.13) = 10¼pts

4-6-9-9: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4-6: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/11/12pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 99 = 18 cuts.

2-3-4-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 666, 99 = 18 cuts.

4-6-9-9: Improves with 222, 444, 5555, 666, 99 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 10/11/12pts with 222, 5555, 666, 99 = 12 cuts.

Position:

It looks like we were First Pone and scored 1pt more than average while First Dealer scored 1pt fewer. Positionally we are still well behind so I'll continue to play Offense..

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 2-3-4-6 will peg best with lower cards and a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

4-6-9-9 is best for starting value by 2½pts but it has few cuts for improvement and 12 cuts for 10-12pts. 2-3-4-6 is guaranteed improvement and has 18 cuts for 9-12pts. Also it will peg best. So will this catch up the 2½pts? I think it may well so I'll throw the 9-9.