Friday 3:00 AM

We awaken to another splendid Puzzle by RAS, a little something to whet our appetite over a cup of hot coffee, and perhaps wet our beak if we are wont to gamble and wager and WIN. And as consolation: At least it's not Friday the Thirteenth! (That will have to wait until May this year, if you're wondering.)

We're in a precarious place this morning, and what else is new? Pone is poised to procure VICTORY against us if Eleven Points can be traversed by a combination of Pegging plus First Hand Show, to which Pone is entitled, if we cannot peg out FIRST.

And while we are the Dealer and do enjoy the Pegging Advantage, even with the unlikely 6.5% odds of getting a Jack Cut and "His Heels" to help us, it's exceedingly unlikely that we shall ever be able to peg Nine (or even Seven) Holes, although stranger this happen in Cribbage (and in Life) all of the time!

But if we do try to peg those Nine Points necessary to rip VICTORY right out of the Jaws of Defeat, what we'll likely end up doing more often than not is stumbling ahead just a few holes, and meanwhile, allowing Pone to peg those additional holes needed in order to secure the WIN right out from under us!

Now that we have assayed the Relative Scores, and the 'Lay of the Land' (or POSITION), what say we take a look-see at what we have dealt ourselves this fine, winter morning? I see a PAIR, a few "Touching" Cards, a few "Gapped" Cards, a Jack, and betwixt and between it all, a FLUSH!

All of these possibilities usually portend hope when we are the Dealer, but at this intricate score, we are really looking for a hand that can 'put the brakes' on Pone's Pending Pegging, an endeavor that can perhaps be prescribed as potentially part pernicious and possibly equally part perspicacious, if that makes any sense.

And a FLUSH can sometimes do that! Other possible choices today that look dangerous come after Keep (2 3 3 J) and Toss (5 7), which only has the Jack as an 'out' card; we might get 'jammed up' while pegging that Deuce alongside those two Treys.

Also, Keep (3 3 5 7) and Toss (2 J) looks even more dangerous for the pegging, and who wishes to 'wrap up' a Deuce and a Jack to later "open" in our Crib? It's long past Christmas Day, and there's no need to stick ourselves with such a "White Elephant" gift in our Crib!

Keep (3 5 7 J) and Toss (2 3) looks almost like a viable idea, but with Three Key Connectors such a 3-5-7 in our Hand, we'll be like sitting ducks on a pond during a sunny day when Pone comes over that hill with his hunting hounds and twelve gauge full of semi-automatic lead, raining down its death!

And probably even worse is probably Keep (2 3 3 7) and Toss (5 J)! Remember, our goal here is NOT to maximize our Hand, or our Crib, or to even care at all about the POINTS! It's all about Defensive Pegging today!

Therefore, as complicated as this promises to get during the pegging, I'm thinking that if we wish to peg with reasonable safety, and retain a strong 'Hand plus Crib' combination, our Discarding Decision could actually be quite straightforward here, and we might simply hold onto the FLUSH via Keep (2s 3s 5s Js) and Toss (3d 7d). But WAIT!

Must we "color within the lines" so predictably today? We're only Nine Points away from VICTORY, and if we can prevent Pone from going out with First Hand Show, we shall have both our Hand and Crib coming our way.

Shouldn't we therefore more specifically be looking for our absolutely-best Defensive Pegging Hand here, regardless of how many points are in either our resultant Hand or Crib? Answer: YES! And if that is indeed the FLUSH, then sobeit; but let's at least look for something ... anything ... better.

Is Keep (3 3 7 J) and Toss (2 5) a safer Pegging Hand than the FLUSH? My oh my: It looks so ugly; this could be our candidate! Remember our goal that we set earlier: we must "put on the brakes" such that Pone cannot peg. Period. Pone tends to average Ten Points, and Two Points typically come from the PEGGING done by Pone. We need to NUKE that!

If we reduce our task to one specific thing here, this would be it: We wish to REDUCE and MINIMIZE Pone's Pegging! And the PAIR of Treys, via the principle of "Safety in Numbers" happen to be our safest two cards! That's it: We'll Toss (2 5), and try to DEFEND our way toward VICTORY! Points? We'll let those points we need take care of themselves: "Let the dead bury the dead."

To worry about holding enough points in such Relative Positions is like worrying about packing an adequate lunch when you're being air-dropped behind enemy lines for a pre-dawn raid on an anti-aircraft gun with nothing but a parachute and three sticks of dynamite and a fuse.

It is a bit comical that Toss (2 5) is probably our WORSE option for scoring points today, but just for kicks, I looked up the Expected Average of Keep (3 3 7 J) and it's just under Four Points, and Toss (2 5) has a Crib Value of well over Five Points, and so our AVERAGE points should chime in at a total of Nine Points, and in addition, the Dealer *always* pegs at least One Hole!

We need Nine Holes, and we'll average to score Ten Holes: the important detail is that our critical need is to inhibit Pone's Pegging, PERIOD. Those who are worried about holding 'enough points' will miss the "essence" of what this puzzle is all about. Just for additional kicks, I played out several dozens of this candidate hand, and tried to lose by not having enough points: I could not do it! As long as Pone does not peg out, relax; we'll be just fine with our two Treys, a 7 Card, and a Jack ... Trust Me!

Remember that our Opponent's main burden today is that Pone must score One Point ABOVE the average normally tallied by Pone, and this means that the Hand we face will most likely be optimized for its power in POINTS, and *not* for its PEGGING prowess!

Therefore, if we retain some garishly 'gnarly' Pegging Cards as the Dealer here, we should be able to 'throw a spanner' (another Highly Technical Cribbage Term) into the works and thwart Pone's hopes and ambitions. And nothing in all of Cribbage beats seeing a grown, experienced player Cry Out Loud when being denied what was thought to be an Easy WIN!

After the Ten of Clubs Cut, we shall peg as though our life depends upon it, because if we wish to be the first player to cross that Finish Line, it is all riding on our ability to peg defensively this morning. And we shall have to further hope that Pone does not have enough points in Hand to beat us with First Hand Show (but that is an inherent risk with *any* decision we might make on our side of the board today).

   

Friday 3:03 AM

I went with keeping some points, getting rid of the 5 and J to crib, and leading a 3.

   

Friday 3:39 AM

Hide the 5 in the crib where it can't be trapped.
With two of the four threes dealt to me, it's less likely my opponent could pair one during the pegging, so I'll keep both.
3S lead, but need to get rid of the two ASAP so that my cards are widely spaced. (If only I'd thought of 3-3-7-J (2-5) like John, I wouldn't have that problem).

   

Friday 4:18 AM

I’m apparently way off today. Trying to keep ND from pegging while keeping enough points to win.

   

Friday 4:29 AM

Keeping the J as my escape card. Ditching the 5 in my crib. Play off!

   

Friday 4:49 AM

Interesting position puzzle Ras-we are going to score our needed 9 points here with whatever we keep,except possibly the 337j-so what’s the best hold to keep the pone from scoring 11? At first glance it appears that 3-5-7-J would provide pretty good cover but we could easily be forced into giving up 2 points with pone matching our 5 on the second series of pegging,which could enable him to go out-the 2337 should provide us a safe go on the first round and cover on the 2nd-provided pone has a hand such as 4 pictures or 3 pictures and a 5-we can’t cover every hand but that is probably the most likely to keep to score 11 points

   

Friday 5:34 AM

Every cut will give us two more points plus as long as pone doesn't go out one more. So, it's the defensive keep here we do not need to peg stay out of traps. dec

   

Friday 5:45 AM

From 11 out the opponent has about a 33 percent chance to win regardless of how smart I am. I will bank on him not having enough. Play off unless a 3 is led.

   

Friday 6:27 AM

Storing the 5 in the crib with the J to keep both cards out of the pegging. This hold is helped by all cuts so guaranteed at least 6. And with 2 in crib and guaranteed 1 peg, we will have enough to go out if we can hold pone from going out. I like this arrangement as it protects against all “X” card hands and the 5-X-X-X card hands. Pone will get zero pegs with those common hands with this hold.

   

Friday 6:28 AM

I flushed, but this is well above my paygrade. Obviously, we need to go out and also peg defensively. My second choice was throwing the J5, which on further review would have been a better choice. I also didn't sufficiently consider the 75 toss.

I suppose the 5 can only get me in trouble in pegging. Sigh. I should be smarter than this.

   

Friday 6:38 AM

I went this way because:
1) I have enough to go out.
2) I can disguise my hand.
3) I have a spread out selection.

   

Friday 6:55 AM

prolly should have kept the flush but went with my first impulse

   

Friday 7:29 AM

Very interesting, and actually very challenging puzzle today submitted by RAS. My number one priority is to prevent pone from pegging points if possible, as he is just outside his average of points scored today after 1st count. There are quite a few situations in which my holding won't matter, as pone will be able to come up with the "goods" so to speak around 38-40% of the time, and there is a not a darn thing we'll be able to do about it. But it is those hands for which we CAN contain him that we should be worried about, and the majority of the time our 9 pts will take care of themselves.

So I'm not worried about my hand score at all, and I think the only way we could possibly fail is by keeping (3 3 7 J), although this is probably the best overall DEFENSIVE or SAFE hand to keep to prevent pone pegs, and the odds of scoring our 9 are still very high, as I believe (2 5) averages a crib of around 5 pts.

I might be wrong, but I'm just not willing to go this far and keep only a 2-pt hand that can stay at 2 pts on so many cuts, have my guaranteed 1 pegging pt, and then rely on the crib to bring me home. (I may do so if pone were at hole 113 or higher to start, as then it is absolutely critical I prevent pone from pegging ANY if possible).

If I'm not choosing to keep this, then the next best adequate defensive keep I can see is the flush (2 3 5 J). My chances of getting caught and giving up a high pegging score are just too great with the likes of (2 3 3 7) or (2 3 3 J), as I'll likely have to play my only escape card very early, (the 2 3 3 7) being worse as I can hardly even consider the 7 an escape card.

So the flush it is, and I'll do my best to dodge and parry any card which pone leads and prevent score during the course of pegging.

If goal is to prevent pegging at all costs, this is how I would begin on all pone leads with (2 3 5 J) flush. (You may disagree, but this is the best way I can see, so feel free to comment or suggest something else if you disagree.)

A lead - respond with 2 (remember you have already seen 2 treys in your hand, and playing your escape card the J here could leave you in a real bind. Keep the most spread out cards (3 5 J) for later in the pegging.

2 lead - respond with the 5 and hold on to your escape card.

3 lead (the worst one) - I would probably have to take a chance by pairing and hope he does not have the "case" 3 to win right now.

4 lead - similar to the A, play "OFF" with the deuce, as you know the location of 2 treys, and hold on your escape card for later in the pegging.

5 or 6 lead - play the deuce holding onto (3 5 J)

7 lead - respond with the trey.

8 lead - play your escape card (J) as count should be high enough and gap from deuce to 5 remaining to prevent the HUGE peg.

Any lead from 9 through K - play off with the deuce making the count 11 or 12, and try to navigate the rest of pegging with your spread (3 5 J).

As you can see, the large majority of opening leads would require laying the 2 upon next response (A, 4, 5, 6, 9 through K).

Very interested to see the final results and answer suggested by RAS and co. on this day!

   

Friday 8:38 AM

I'm in zeke76's boat. This is above my paygrade. The flush is hard to read. But the 5 and the J are the most likely cards to be trapped. All this advice is self-contradictory in these end game scenarios. What's a poor Inuit supposed to do but throw his hands in the air and pray.

   

Friday 8:39 AM

I was tempted to keep the flush; went with this instead.

   

Friday 9:11 AM

Every card working for me and the most trapped card in cribbage tucked away in my crib.

   

Friday 5:13 PM

I think its between the flush, 2-3-3-J (5-7) and perhaps 3-5-7-J (2-3S):

2-3S-5-J: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 11½pts

2-3-3-J: 6pts + 6pts (Schell: 6.01) = 12pts

3-5-7-J: 4pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 10¾pts

Potential:

2-3S-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/12/14pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 31 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for his nob and 1pt for the flush = 2x9=18/46 = 0.39pt.

2-3-3-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 555, 777, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444 + 15xXs = 28 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.


3-5-7-J: Improves with 222, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8/10pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts. Plus 9 spades for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We only need 9pts to go out but Pone only needs 11pts so I'll play ultra-defence.

Pegging:

I think all three hands should peg well but playing Defence I think 3-5-7-J may well peg best.

   

Friday 5:16 PM

Summary:

All three hands are likely to get us out so the most important factor will be how well we can play Defence in the pegging. The flush will be hard to read, 2-3-3-J has the benefit of the pair and 3-5-7-J has a good spread of cards. I think I'm inclined to go for the 3-5-7-J so I'll throw the suited 2-3.

   

Friday 5:23 PM

At 112*-110 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Optimal________Win %_____Loss %
3-3-7-J________62.3_______37.7
3-3-5-7________58.6_______41.4
3D-5-7-J_______57.6_______42.4
2-3-7-J________55.8_______44.2
2-5-7-J________55.6_______44.4
2-3-3-J________55.5_______44.5
3-3-5-J________55.2_______44.8
2-3S-5-J_______53.1_______46.9
2-3-5-7________48.1_______51.9
2-3-3-5________46.8_______53.2
2-3-3-7________46.5_______53.5

3-3-7-J is best for chances of Winning so I'll select 2-5 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Friday 8:32 PM

Thanks for the fine level of participation and thought-filled contributions. RAS had queried this hand so knew what HalscribCLX suggested. Sorry cannot bring myself to hold two points, needing nine to win. So, my choice is to hold fairly wide spaced cards with no cards of sequence. Think have enough spread to play off on any lead. N/D does need 11 points to win and average for n/d with pegs is 9-10. So with peg avoidance, am counting on the high-scoring 2-3 to crib to put me over the finish line and leave n/d on tthe board.

   

Friday 8:34 PM

Now you get the picture?