Saturday 3:05 AM

I'd start with all six points in hand.
4-7 isn't terrible, and is just one card away from becoming four points.

   

Saturday 3:15 AM

Tough one today Ras-you can make compelling cases for both logical holds but I slightly prefer the better pegging potential of 2-3-4-7 as dealer-reasonable chance of a 6 or 8 point crib with the K-K discard

   

Saturday 3:39 AM

As the game's First Dealer, we are at that familiar score of Zero-to-Zero, having played what can only be considered to be a perfect game so far! Our goal should be to continue in this same manner and fashion. (A wee bit o' Cribbage Humor; Does anybody remember laughter?)

We have a RUN, and a 'Voted Most Eligible' (for several years now) very Lonely-Looking Middle Card, and a PAIR of Kings, which means this could be a dangerous Poker Hand; or maybe "King Me!" as in playing Checkers; or, a complicated Chess Composition; or, it could be a the beginnings of a glorious Cribbage Conundrum, emblematic of the one-eyed, axe-wielding Monarch of Diamonds of one nation standing alongside and perhaps handing off (or abandoning?) the task of leadership to the two-eyed Monarch of Spades, who holds his own similar freshly-forged bludgeoning instrument of death and destruction, another Axe-Man who intends to lead the next generation. (Where do I keep finding these magnificent metaphors? I'm Super Cereal: Somebody should be writing these down!)

Do we 'split up' those two powers, and Toss (7 K), and recoup those 'would-be lost' points from the broken PAIR by adding a (15-2) to our Hand? Or, a third idea emerges: We could Keep (2 3 K K) and let Two Kings rule the nation, while we Toss (4 7) into the Crib, something for a rainy day. And yes, we could even Toss (2 3), only because somewhere, someone said that if you could do this, then you might do it, and receive positive results.

There are reasons we might put forth for pursuing any of these ideas, and let's examine the straightforward Keep (2 3 4 7) and Toss (K K), which should peg well, with our two-card "Magic Eleven" of 4-7, and its superset, the four-card 2-3-4-7 "Sweet Sixteen"! The former is easy to see: an Opponent who holds mostly Ten Cards (or "X") leads a Ten (or "X") Card, and we respond with our 7 Card in order to 'boost' the Count above and beyond Fifteen, and then Pone 'drops' another Ten (or "X") Card, after which we 'grab the low-hanging fruit' and play our 4 Card in order to score (31=2).

The "Sweet Sixteen" is slightly more complex, and it involves using three or four cards that 'add up' to Sixteen, and using them against an Opponent who holds not just Ten (or "X") Cards, but a 5 Card (or Cards) as well, or both "Nickels and Dimes"! If Pone has a 5 Card, and wishes to 'unload' it early, or perhaps even Leads the 5 Card from Keep (5 X X X), we might see the Count reach the mystical value of Twenty-Two, and now we can frequently "mop up" the joint by playing our 4 Card, followed by our Trey, followed by our Deuce, and score (31=5)! (Unless they have another 5 Card, and steal it away from us!)

Toss (K K) is not the most attractive 'Belle of the Ball' as Dealer Discards go, but it's not terrible either, and it probably beats either Toss (4 7) or Toss (7 K) in an Offensive Capacity; so, Keep (2 3 4 7) and Toss (K K) is something many might find viable today. And, since it "answers" to the tune of at least Two Points (more) after *every* Cut Card, we begin with a 'static' Seven Points which, when added to the minimum One Hole Pegged for Good Behavior (at least, that's what I was told it's for...), we would always complete This Deal by reaching Hole 8 or beyond, and hey: that's HALF our average tally as Dealer, so you know, not half bad. (At least we wouldn't be moving BACKWARDS!)

And yet Defensively, another 'plain vanilla' idea alluded to earlier is Keep (2 3 K K) and Toss (4 7), which is very basic: Every place has its thing, and every thing is in its place. This is New Game, First Dealer, First Hand, Basic 'Cribbage 101' Type Stuff! Let's start with Half-a-Dozen Points, and any Cut Card that matches any currently-held card in our Hand, well: it instantly DOUBLES our Hand to become a Delightful Dozen.

It's hard to imagine a Cut that doesn't help us, unless we imagine a 6 Card or a 9 Card; so, we'll imagine anything *except* that, if you don't mind! Toss (4 7): Who Knew?!

That 5 Card Cut had better help ... our Crib, I mean. And please, don't forget, as james500 says, "Toss (4 7) isn't terrible"!

   

Saturday 4:09 AM

Since I like my pegging game, I can see some trap plays here. Not the biggest advocate of Kings discard but maybe there's a third joining my crib. dec

   

Saturday 4:24 AM

Pretty stumped on this one. Keeping the run and tossing some garbage to the crib.

   

Saturday 6:41 AM

The KK toss averages a full point more than the 47 to my crib which makes up for the loss of one point in the hand. Also, tossing KK means the cut is guaranteed to help me. This is also a friendlier pegging hand (for me, not the pone, ha!) and pone often tosses Ks to dealer's crib anyway.

The 5 cut is a nice bonus.

   

Saturday 7:11 AM

Very close call, at first glance I would lean towards holding the 6 points, a very common hand. However, I am not crazy about the negative delta of holding 47. And I like the Magic 11 by holding 47, and other pegging prospects, as already covered. And 2347 improves on any cut.

   

Saturday 7:27 AM

This is another one of those hands that improves on every cut. Is anyone compiling a list of all 78? Plus the Magic 11, and Sweet 16. With the Starter 5, definitely defense to the lead.

   

Saturday 7:34 AM

Starting with my 6-pt hand would seem to have quite the best value, and is quite a better defensive pegging hand (2 3 K K) than starting with only a run of 3 (2 3 4 7) and tossing a low-valued pair (K K) into the crib. Although having a pair of K's in the crib should score better than the other X-valued cards other than the J's, (4 7) is not that terrible a throw, and I am getting a connector card in there along with a "close to gapped" other card, and there a plenty of open-ended possibilities for runs with the cut card and pone's 2-card throw. And with (2 3 4 K) and (7 K) toss, you are only starting with 5 pts and a much inferior crib toss.

You don't lose much at all by giving up the double-run chance (as a 2 or 3 cut would help your holding just as much, and a 4 cut would be good for the crib toss).

Play defense to the opening lead after the nice 5 cut.

   

Saturday 7:50 AM

This is how I would play it. Let's see what the experts say.

   

Saturday 8:31 AM

I think this hold has a bit more upside.

   

Saturday 9:46 AM

Where to put the Kings? In the crib, its probably just 2 points. But in the hand I have 6 points and the 4-7 has some potential. Arguably.

   

Saturday 10:03 AM

better pegger. All cuts help. Should make up for 1 point "loss". Ready for any lead.

   

Saturday 10:20 AM

Every cut helps this keep. Maybe the pone tossed K-10 or K-9 with glee and was that a big moan when we turned the crib over?

   

Saturday 11:08 AM

Not wanting to trash my crib when I can still hold 6 points.

   

Saturday 2:52 PM

Keeping 6. Don't like non-5 pairs in my crib

   

Saturday 4:47 PM

I think it's between 2-3-K-K (4-7) and 2-3-4-K (7-K):

2-3-K-K: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.72) = 10pts

2-3-4-K: 5pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.26) = 8¼pts

Potential:

2-3-K-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, KK = 19 cuts.

2-3-4-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, KK = 19 cuts.

Position:

We're First Dealer so positional hole is at 8pts. Therefore I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well playing Defense, I think, but perhaps 2-3-K-K slightly better.

Summary:

2-3-K-K is better for starting value by 1¾pts and although 2-3-4-K has many more cuts for improvement it only has 19 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 19 cuts for 9-12pts with 2-3-K-K. So I'll throw the 4-7.

   

Saturday 4:53 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
2-3-K-K____8.37+(-2.13)+3.85=10.09____35.5____49.6
2-3-4-K____7.98+(-2.13)+3.12= 8.97____34.3____47.0
2-3-4-7____6.50+(-2.13)+4.49= 8.86____34.2____45.9

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-K-K________24.8____24.2
2-3-4-K________27.6____27.3
2-3-4-7________29.1____28.7

2-3-K-K is best for expected averages by 1.12pts and is slightly best for Win %s and appreciably lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 4-7 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Saturday 8:27 PM

One of reasons for submitting this puzzle as it flip-flops when choosing offense as do about 1/3 of all hands. Here as opening dealer, defense is the call and holding the six points is the way to go. AS Inushtuk1 alludes to, had score been 12*-19, dealer choice would likely be offense then 2-3-4-7 with K-K is the superior choice considering discards of K-K, 7-K, 4-K, and 4-7. Play off the lead. So, it is important to be flexible enough to adapt based on strategy chosen.

   

Saturday 8:31 PM

Get the picture?

   

Sunday 2:19 AM

Hi RAS :) The issue for me was that I wasn't clicking the "to your crib" button, before clicking the "see results" button. Maybe you're doing the same without realizing it?