May 11, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
12*-23  ?
57%
38%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 259
Inushtuk1Second game against Cribbage Classic Pro. 3-3-4-5 is one of my favourite double runs, but I love putting a 5 in my crib as well. Pone would certainly keep the 3-3-4-5, and be ecstatic to do so, as it often turns out very well, with only an Ace cut not improving that hand. Tossing (2-9) has some negative delta attached with us retaining a 4.
Goatman
1977 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Wednesday 3:04 AM
Can’t pass up the possible 20-21 hand…call me selfish.
james500
3227 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Wednesday 3:06 AM
Keeping 3-3-4-5 deprives me of the two "five" combos I could have from 2-3c and 2-3sp.
JQT
3455 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Wednesday 3:07 AM
We dealt ourselves some fine cards as the Dealer, and that's the good news. But the rest of the news is rather troublesome: Pone has amassed nearly DOUBLE our score; and if this continues, we'll possibly get Double SKUNKED!

We have a few choices of Double RUNS today, namely Keep (2 3 3 4) or Keep (3 3 4 5). The former 'coughs up' a few less 'static' points, but allows us to get a 5 Card in our Crib, while the latter has us begin with Ten Points in Hand.

Keep (2 3 3 4) is hard to beat, as it's helped quite a bit by Thirty-Five Cuts (222, 33, 444, 6666, 8888, 999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK). Meanwhile, Keep (3 3 4 5) is helped quite handsomely by Twenty Cuts (33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888).

Since Toss (5 9) ensures that we'll have at least Two Points in our Crib, I think there's no question that Keep (2 3 3 4) and Toss (5 9) is slightly but clearly superior today.

After the Queen Cut, we hold a Dozen Points in our Hand, and at least Two Points, and probably more, in our Crib. If we peg reasonably well, we should 'reel in' our Opponent rather nicely today, and level the score.
Eolus619 says: JQT…..28-33*…38*-49…54-59*….64*-75
JQT says: With AVERAGE scoring, we avert even a regular SKUNK; however, if our Opponent continues to score TWICE AS MUCH as we do (as has occurred thus far), then the game will end with us only having traveled half way to the end of the board!
dec
5633 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Wednesday 3:48 AM
Keeping this I could have 20/21. dec
Gougie00
5013 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Wednesday 4:19 AM
Even though the 3345 is very powerful, in this case I'll hold on to the 2334. Everything helps.
mfetchCT425
1114 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Wednesday 4:34 AM
Very rarely break up 3-3-4-5, but this double run is helped by every cut and should peg well too. Any face card cut will give us a dozen in hand and at least 2 in crib, which is more combined points than holding 3-3-4-5 and 2-9 in crib.
Samgash33
77 votes

Joined: December 2017

   
Wednesday 4:35 AM
2334 makes a lot of 12s and 16s. 59 is 2+, hopefully more in the crib. Play some fierce offense.
scottcrib
927 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Wednesday 5:03 AM
Since everything helps this hold and I see no As, off go the 9-5.
Eolus619 says: nice to see u posting again!
Sally3 says: Congrats on SILVER in ACC Monday night, Scott :)
cribbagepogo says: Grass Roots. ACC does Master Points.
Sally3 says: and MRP doesnt do silver. Everyone knows that I mean IRP when I congratulate someone. just as important
JQT says: For some, it's TMI (Too Much Information), and for others, it's TMA (Too Many Acronyms). The rigid structure of the military is where the proliferation of the use of many acronyms is thought to have started. It would begin as early as over a century ago, during registration, when gathering all of the names of the young soldiers was performed, and in the box titled "Middle Initial" they would frequently encounter a young recruit who had no middle name, and so rather than leave this field blank, they would instead write in "N.M.I." which stood for "No Middle Initial"! Incidentally, what are often called "Acronyms" are in fact properly called "Initialisms" such as ATM or PTA or TMI or yes, even N.M.I., for to be an actual acronym, the abbreviated term must be utterable, as in SCUBA or NAFTA or NASA, while an initialism is merely an assemblage of letters.
MiketheExpert
419 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Wednesday 5:40 AM
I assume it is only between trying to decide which double-run to start off with (i.e. 2 pts less and tossing a 5 in your crib, or 10-pt run and tossing the inferior (2 9). With a (2-3-3) combo in my hand while still being able to throw a 5 in the crib, even though it is a weaker (5 9), I still like our combined chances more although I am starting with an 8-pt hand.
Jazzselke
2076 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Wednesday 6:07 AM
3345 is one of the best starting hands, but in today's puzzle would choose 2334 with a 5 being thrown to the crib, albeit not crazy about the 59 combination. I consider this a very close call; the possibility of a 20 or 21 hand is very tempting.
wasa
2344 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Wednesday 6:13 AM
Like others, I debated the 3-3-4-5 vs the 2-3-3-4. I really like a 5 in my crib, and with no face cards in my hand, a higher probability of a T,J,Q, or K card cut, plus my opponent may toss me a T-K (one can hope).
jmath714
1108 votes

Joined: January 2012

   
Wednesday 6:17 AM
The difference between 5-9 and 2-9 is not enough to make up for the potential in holding this game changing hand. Particularly since you have the double 3, you have 8 cuts at 20 or more.

To me, position this early is mostly immaterial, I’m playing optimal (and aggressively) and pairing most lead cards, including the 5, unless my opponent acts quite strangely pre-cut. If so, then it’s highly plausible they have 555X, in which case I would play the 4 to exert maximum pressure.
Fender Bass
327 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Wednesday 6:20 AM
Keep the 2s and 3s together and send a 5. All good.
Eolus619
647 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Wednesday 6:43 AM
All the good reasons for my choice…see above. When GFD, earns 23 points and has more than a 7 point lead , he / she has a 70+ % chance to win the game. This could easily be a Ras game where 3 of 10 games are lost (or won) on first deal.
Sally3
199 votes

Joined: October 2021

   
Wednesday 7:26 AM
What Fetech annd Jazz man said...echo :)
usacoder
930 votes

Joined: August 2019

   
Wednesday 10:26 AM
As you can see, I kept 3345. My algorithm said to keep 2334 which scores 20.79. My toss averages 20.49. We don't want to break up any double run.
Ras2829
4461 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Wednesday 12:33 PM
The 3-3-4-5 was such a highly favored hold of mine that it took RAS a decade to learn that the 5-? from this hand and holding the smaller double run produced the greater combined value (pegs, hand and crib scores). You can learn that all in a single day right here. The 5-9 discard has such a greater crib value than does 2-9 holding the smaller double run has nearly a full point edge. Peg values are almost identical for either double run here. Choosing offense to include the pegging will play on the lead and take any pegs offered.
JQT says: Exactly! By the time you take Keep (3 3 4 5), and add up all Eight Cuts (33, 444, 555) for 20 or 21, and those 31 Cuts (222, 6666, 7777, 8888, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) for 12 or 14, and then . . . compare it with Keep (2 3 3 4), and now add up all Thirty-Eight Cuts (222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) for 12 or 15 or 16 or 17, you'll find that Keep (3 3 4 5) indeed does come out better, by about One Point. But then, Toss (2 9) comes up about Two Points LESS than Toss (5 9) in our Crib, for a NET LOSS of, as RAS points out, close to a FULL point!
Coeurdelion
4919 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Wednesday 1:59 PM
I think it's between 2-3-3-4 (5-9), 3-3-4-5 (2-9) and perhaps 2-3-3-9 (4-5) is worth looking at:

2-3-3-4: 8pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 13¼pts

3-3-4-5: 10pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.71) = 13¾pts

2-3-3-9: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 10½pts

Potential:

2-3-3-4: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts.

3-3-4-5: Improves with 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 14/20/21pts with 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 = 20 cuts.

2-3-3-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 6666, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/14pts with AAAA, 33, 444, 999 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

Position:

If we reach 34pts we'll be on par to reach 2nd street positional hole in two deals time. But we need to score 22pts or more this deal. We have a good hand so should be on target to achieve this.

Pegging:

If we get a good cut I'll play Defense, if not Offense.

Summary:

3-3-4-5 has the best starting value by ½pt. over 2-3-3-4 but 2-3-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 12-17pts compared to 20 cuts for 14-21pts with 3-3-4-5. So I'll throw 5-9.
HalscribCLX
4650 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Wednesday 2:17 PM
At 12*-23 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W7 %____W8 %
2-3-3-4____12.39+3.78+5.56=21.73____16.0____34.1
3-3-4-5____13.78+3.74+3.27=20.79____15.1____32.6
2-3-3-9_____7.87+3.37+6.30=17.54____10.0____24.9

Offense_______L7 %____L8 %
2-3-3-4________20.2____37.2
3-3-4-5________19.1____37.5
2-3-3-9________19.1____43.9

2-3-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.94pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and although 3-3-4-5 is very slightly lower for Loss %s I'll select the 5-9 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
JQT says: The question for many will be, can this be calculated "on the fly" or must this be memorized? Well, if we do some very quick approximations: with three of the thirteen card ranks indeed boosting (3 3 4 5) an extra four points, this means that slighly less than 25% (3/13) of the cuts will add four points, and 25% of four is one, however; with (2 3 3 4) and a 5 Card in our Crib, we shall get two more points 100% of the time. And two minus one means that (2 3 3 4) should net us an extra point each time we Toss (5 9).
Andy (muesli64)
2112 votes

Joined: August 2009

   
Wednesday 2:51 PM
No need to go for the very big one. We are somewhat behind but it is early days.
Inushtuk1
874 votes

Joined: July 2016

   
Wednesday 4:50 PM
I was leaning this way, then tapped on the Cribbage Classic Hint Button. It said toss (2-9). That made me decide to do just the opposite. The cut was the 10c. I had 12 in my hand. Pegging went thus. J-4(14)-A(15-2)-3(18)-Q(28)-3(31-2). Second series he played his 4 and I got I for last card. Opponent had 10 points with the right J. He tossed 8-9 to man crib. Final score. 37-35*. I regained board position but needed to continue on offence.