Thursday 3:10 AM

Magic Eleven in the hand, and (7-8) in the crib with three cards to come.

   

Thursday 3:26 AM

Let’s plant the 87 and see what grows.

   

Thursday 3:52 AM

We are the Dealer with a small lead on First Street, but we're still not anywhere near the First Street Par Hole 18. This means that while we do have a significant Positional Advantage, we have not quite "jumped the cycle" and so the game may still proceed as a typical game.

It looks as though we can immediately reduce our Discard Choices down to just two: either Toss (7 8) or Toss (T J). Both discards involve "Touching" Cards, although Toss (7 8) also has points associated with the inherent (15-2).

This arrangement strangely does not "ring a bell" nor do I recall having dealt with anything like this, which makes for an interesting puzzle.

Since we get three cards of "help" in the Crib, it is tempting to Toss (7 8) and try to "leverage" the (15-2) possibilities, since Pone is less likely to throw us any 5 Cards.

Toss (7 8) also allows us to retain a two-card "Magic Eleven" of A-X, and a Queen Cut would create a four-card RUN in our Hand, so Toss (7 8) seems to be the better discard, especially in a Defensive Scenario (0*-0).

But I think Toss (T J) is more likely to receive help from our Opponent, and since we're already underway at (9*-7), let's play more aggressively and Toss (T J). Perhaps Pone will give us the ubiquitous Toss (9 Q) today!

After the Jack Cut, we take Two for His Heels, and we have just Two Points in our Hand, and also at least Two Points in our Crib, and hopefully a Double RUN!

   

Thursday 3:57 AM

Time to root for a cut of 4 through 9 here

   

Thursday 4:24 AM

Playing the crib.

   

Thursday 4:39 AM

Yuck

   

Thursday 4:47 AM

I measure this at 11.99 by putting the 7-8 in the crib or 11.90 by tossing in the Ten-Jack. J-K comes in at 11.19.

Brutal hand Ras; it's a good thing it's happening early in the game.

   

Thursday 5:05 AM

Maybe something good will happen in the crib.

   

Thursday 5:50 AM

Not seeing anything I like on this menu. Further, it the pone helps my crib then he probably has 8 or more points in his hand. Not looking good for the home team. I don't see much of any teaching moments with this puzzle.

   

Thursday 6:06 AM

Why not?

   

Thursday 6:33 AM

To quote Rob, after Ganes first deal…both players are down in the muck. Slightly worse is GFD who managed to give up his/her board position advantage. I have a Ras list of the ten most frequent Pone discards to crib. Six of the ten help the 7-8 in some way.

   

Thursday 7:04 AM

Been said above. Pondered the 7-8 or T-J to my crib. But with 3 additional cards helping my crib and only 1 additional card helping my hand, I think this is RAS's small hand rule. While I haven't memorized the numbers, 7-8 is an awesome toss to our crib, while T-J is good, it's not "awesome" (RAS's xx-star discards I believe say the same).

If I toss the T-J I'm left with a stray K in my hand that doesn't work with the 7-8. As mrob says, cuts of 4 through 9 are most helpful (hand/crib) but A,4,5,6,7,8,9,T,J,Q,K) will either help my hand or crib

   

Thursday 7:43 AM

No strong preference either way. I'll be interested to see what Hal's numbers say.

   

Thursday 8:31 AM

When I have two good friends in my hand that seem to not be having a good time I like to send them to the crib and hope there is a better party there for them to enjoy.

   

Thursday 8:52 AM

Starting to think about defense and maybe keeping opponent short of 18.

   

Thursday 9:52 AM

I am definitely going to try the (7 8) suited in my crib here...It seemms like it will have much more potential to explode in my crib, and although I am not particularly fond of the remaining hand with a lone A, I like the prospects of being able to pair a face card followed by the A for 31-2. Otherwise, I will navigate according to pone lead, and play A early in the pegging round if appropriate. 4,5,9,or Q cut is helpful to the hand, while mid-range cards such as 6,7,8 which do not improve the hand may give us a killer crib.

   

Thursday 2:24 PM

I think it's between A-7-8-K (10-J) and A-10-J-K (7-8):

A-7-8-K: 2pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.61) = 6¾pts

A-10-J-K: 0pt + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 6½pts

Potential:

A-7-8-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, KKK = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 5/6/7/8pts with 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 14 cuts.

A-10-J-K: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5555, 9999, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 3/4/5/6pts with 4444, 5555, 9999, QQQQ = 16 cuts. Plus 12 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

We're well short of positional hole at 18pts and have been dealt a poor hand so I think we must play Defense.

Pegging:

I think both these hands will peg well playing Defense but I prefer the flexibility of A-7-8-K.

Summary:

A-7-8-K has an extra ¼pt in starting value but A-10-J-K has an extra ¼pt for nob potential so they're pretty even. They both have the same number of cuts for improvement but A-7-8-K has 14 cuts for 5-8pts while A-10-J-K has 16 cuts for 3-6pts. I think A-7-8-K may peg a little better and generally I prefer A-7-8-K so I'll throw 10-J.

   

Thursday 2:27 PM

At 9*-7 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs___Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-7-8-K____3.96+ 0.59 +4.56=9.11____51.3____48.0
A-10-J-K___2.43+(-0.59)+6.80=8.65____52.5____49.7
A-7-8-10___4.04+ 0.54 +3.97=8.56____49.8____46.9

Optimal______L9 %____L10 %
A-7-8-K_______44.5____30.1
A-10-J-K______43.2____28.2
A-7-8-10______44.7____31.2

A-7-8-K is best for expected averages by 0.46pt. and although A-10-J-K is slightly best for Win %s and lower for Loss %s as it's very early in the game I decide on expected averages and select 10-J to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Thursday 3:11 PM

Have to admit discarding 10-J is counter intuitive for most who look at these six cards. Note there is little difference in the pegs if choosing an optimal strategy as HalscribCLX recommends. My choice is offense and A-7-8-K pegs better than A-10-J-K if choosing that strategy to include the pegging. Add the potential hand value and discarding 10-J does even better. Have only played the hand this way in recent years. Will not have the greater combined value if discards were 10-Q, 10-K, or Q-K. In those cases, toss the 7-8.

   

Thursday 5:05 PM

Agree on the pegging could get a little complicated trying to peg with an Ace and three ten cards. It looks like a failure for the first dealer here. dec

   

Thursday 6:15 PM

My thinking matched dec above. 7-8 and 10-J looked pretty similar, and since I wanted some pegging points I didn't want A-X-X-X, so the 7-8 stayed, and 10-J went looking for a Q-9 opponent discard.