May 13, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
77*-79  ?
65%
23%
7%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 247
Goatman
1977 votes

Joined: March 2017

   
Friday 3:07 AM
Not my favorite throw to my crib…but want to keep A22 together with the 10. While writing this it dawned on me the A46 10 may have been the better choice. Live and learn.
james500
3227 votes

Joined: June 2013

   
Friday 3:11 AM
A few cuts will give me 8+ points, and I can escape any runs during the pegging with the 10 card. It also forms an 11 with the Ace.
Unlikely that my opponent will give me a 5 card, but X-A, X-6 or X-9 are all possible.
Bottomfeeder
80 votes

Joined: February 2022

   
Friday 3:16 AM
Only 3 cuts don’t improve this hold, gives sone pegging cards, and 2s in the crib creates a lot of opportunity for my opponent to regret their throw.
JQT
3455 votes

Joined: October 2008

   
Friday 3:17 AM
Once again, we are the Dealer, but this time with a deficit of Two Points on Third Street. Luckily, we are Dealer from well beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70, which in spite of our small deficit, gives us the Positional Advantage.

It looks like we could Toss (4 6), Toss (2 2), Toss (2 6), or maybe Toss (6 T). Only Toss (2 2) puts points in our Crib, but it comes at a cost of splitting up the A-2-2.

Toss (2 6) breaks up our only PAIR. I think it comes down to Toss (2 2) or Toss (4 6). Toss (4 6) is bound to go nowhere in our Crib, unless we Cut a 5 Card, but I am loath to throw the PAIR of Deuces into the Crib, too.

In the end, I prefer to retain the A-2-2 together as Pegging Fuel. Therefore, let's Toss (4 6), and who knows: maybe we'll Cut a 5 Card, or get a 5 Card from Pone!

After the Queen Cut, we now have Six Points in Hand, and a whole lot of probably nothing in our Crib. But we can dream! Try to unload the Ten "T" Card early, and score with that A-2-2 trio during the latter stages of the pegging.
JQT says: It's interesting to note that: Many people liked (3 3 4 5) a few days back, because Eight Cuts (33, 444, 555) added an additional Three or Four Points, when compared to those same cuts and what they added to (2 3 3 4); while today, many people refrain from (A 2 2 T), which gets *at least* Four Points (or often more, sometimes even DOUBLE, or Eight Points more!) of added help from a Dozen Cuts (AAA, 22, 3333, TTT), when compared with (A 4 6 T).
Eolus619 says: JQT..it is obvious you have good math skills. But we all can benefit from some self improvement no matter our skill level. Here is a 4 minute video tutorial from Lou Costello to sharpen your math talents. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzxVyO6cpos
mrob2199
959 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 3:25 AM
Not thrilled with this keep but this gives us some added pegging flexibility while providing a few extra cuts that could help either our hand or crib-just can’t stomach the 4/6 to our own crib here unless we had a very good hand to keep-the A2210 doesn’t qualify as such
Gougie00
5013 votes

Joined: March 2008

   
Friday 3:36 AM
Another meh hand.
Fender Bass
327 votes

Joined: July 2021

   
Friday 5:12 AM
Tossing the 4/6 was my first impulse. I might have overthought this one.
Fender Bass says: K, here's why I when this way. I figured opp wouldn't donate a 5 and probably wouldn't cut a 5 so lets put the 2's in and hope for a 3 or maybe a 2/4 or 3/4. 6/4 didn't seem as promising.
mfetchCT425
1114 votes

Joined: February 2009

   
Friday 5:19 AM
It was close for me between 2-2 or 4-6. Like the 2-2 better in the crib as opp is most likely not tossing us a 5, and it leaves some maneuverability in the pegging (with a 3-card magic 11 as well), but in the end, liked the A-2-2 intact allowing for some decent to excellent hands with any A, 2, or 3 cut. If the nickel happens to get cut, it would provide a little help to our hand and a potential powerful crib.
wasa
2344 votes

Joined: November 2014

   
Friday 5:23 AM
Only considered the 4-6 or the 2-2. I prefer putting odd cards in my crib when possible, but never really considered tossing myself A-4 and keeping the 2-2-6-T (which, it would appear as of 8:30 EDT no one did).
scottcrib says: I like the idea of A-4.
MiketheExpert
419 votes

Joined: April 2021

   
Friday 5:59 AM
Purely because of board position, and not because I'm particularly fond of tossing the pair of 2's in my crib. I think (A 4 6 10) will give me more flexibility to peg defensively with both a magic 11 and a sweet 16, at the same time avoiding much damage on the other side of the board, which is key here for me. After the Q cut which gives me a minimum combined 7 points (4 hand + 2 crib + 1 peg), let's be opportunistic and play a safe strategy for the pegging.
Jazzselke
2076 votes

Joined: March 2009

   
Friday 6:35 AM
Dislike 46 to the crib, and we have good pegging cards, including a possible 5-trap with that 46 on the second series. Deuces the 4th best pair to throw to the crib.
Sally3
199 votes

Joined: October 2021

   
Friday 6:40 AM
same reasons as Fetch
Eolus619
647 votes

Joined: June 2020

   
Friday 7:40 AM
103*-105…119-115*…current dealer will not get 16 points from this hand so the plot thickens . It’s between 4-6 & 2-2. I liked the A-4 in my keep to link to the ten. The keep A-4-6-10 gets cut help from 10/13 ranks. Either toss gets very little direct help from Pone’s most frequent discards to crib.
Coeurdelion
4919 votes

Joined: October 2007

   
Friday 1:35 PM
I'm not really attracted to any other hand than A-2-2-10 (4-6) but I'll also look at 2-2-6-10 (A-4) and A-4-6-10 (2-2):

A-2-2-10: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.85) = 8pts

2-2-6-10: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

A-4-6-10: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 7¾pts

Potential:

A-2-2-10: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 444, 5555 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 3333, 101010 = 12 cuts.

2-2-6-10: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 5555, 666, 7777, 9999, 101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6pts with 22, 3333, 5555, 7777 = 14 cuts.

A-4-6-10: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/8/9pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010 = 13 cuts.

Position:

We're 7pts past 3rd street positional hole and Pone is 7pts short of where they would like to be so I think we should play Defense.

Pegging:

A-2-2-10 will peg well with 3 low cards and a high card but also A-4-6-10 should with two low cards a middle card and a high card together with a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

A-2-2-10 is best for starting value by ¼pt over A-4-6-10. However A-4-6-10 is best for cuts for improvement and has 13 cuts for 6-9pts compared to 12 cuts for 8-14pts with A-2-2-10 while 2-2-6-10 has 14 cuts for only 6pts. I think with the best starting value and 12 cuts for 8-14pts clinches it and it will also peg well so I'll throw the suited 4-6.
HalscribCLX
4650 votes

Joined: February 2008

   
Friday 1:40 PM
At 77*-79 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-4-6-10___4.52+(-1.91)+5.44=8.05____21.9____50.5
A-2-2-10___6.57+(-2.33)+3.75=7.99____22.3____50.7
2-2-6-10___3.78+(-2.02)+5.34=7.10____16.6____47.4

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-4-6-10______22.3____34.6
A-2-2-10______21.5____34.1
2-2-6-10______20.8____37.8

A-4-6-10 is best for expected averages by a slim 0.06pt. but A-2-2-10 is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. As we're at a critical board position I'll decide based on the Win/Loss
%s and select the suited 4-6 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829
4461 votes

Joined: November 2008

   
Friday 1:56 PM
Opponent needs 16 points for upcoming deal (4th street CPZ 95-99); so, my choice is cautious offense (optimal). Combined values pointed to this choice (pegs, hand, and crib scores). Would play the six on a 9 for 15-2, if n/d pairs, score 31-2 with the 10. Also play the 6 on a X-lead, hoping to close the count with the 4-A for 31-2. So be it!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Why not the 10 on a K lead, and the Ace on other X leads? This leaves the 5-Card trap for the second play series. Or is that only for offence?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: If choosing offense to include the pegging, the 5-trap is a very good choice. Playing the 10 on a king lead when holding 4-6 is a highly successful pegging maneuver. Look for opportunities to make that work when choosing offense. If pegging is high priority, might even play the ten-spot on any X-point lead, taking the 31-2 with the Ace, still holding the 4-6 to pick off a five in the next pegging sequence.
dec
5633 votes

Joined: April 2008

   
Saturday 1:53 AM
Defense. dec