Friday 3:07 AM

Not my favorite throw to my crib…but want to keep A22 together with the 10. While writing this it dawned on me the A46 10 may have been the better choice. Live and learn.

   

Friday 3:11 AM

A few cuts will give me 8+ points, and I can escape any runs during the pegging with the 10 card. It also forms an 11 with the Ace.
Unlikely that my opponent will give me a 5 card, but X-A, X-6 or X-9 are all possible.

   

Friday 3:16 AM

Only 3 cuts don’t improve this hold, gives sone pegging cards, and 2s in the crib creates a lot of opportunity for my opponent to regret their throw.

   

Friday 3:17 AM

Once again, we are the Dealer, but this time with a deficit of Two Points on Third Street. Luckily, we are Dealer from well beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70, which in spite of our small deficit, gives us the Positional Advantage.

It looks like we could Toss (4 6), Toss (2 2), Toss (2 6), or maybe Toss (6 T). Only Toss (2 2) puts points in our Crib, but it comes at a cost of splitting up the A-2-2.

Toss (2 6) breaks up our only PAIR. I think it comes down to Toss (2 2) or Toss (4 6). Toss (4 6) is bound to go nowhere in our Crib, unless we Cut a 5 Card, but I am loath to throw the PAIR of Deuces into the Crib, too.

In the end, I prefer to retain the A-2-2 together as Pegging Fuel. Therefore, let's Toss (4 6), and who knows: maybe we'll Cut a 5 Card, or get a 5 Card from Pone!

After the Queen Cut, we now have Six Points in Hand, and a whole lot of probably nothing in our Crib. But we can dream! Try to unload the Ten "T" Card early, and score with that A-2-2 trio during the latter stages of the pegging.

   

Friday 3:25 AM

Not thrilled with this keep but this gives us some added pegging flexibility while providing a few extra cuts that could help either our hand or crib-just can’t stomach the 4/6 to our own crib here unless we had a very good hand to keep-the A2210 doesn’t qualify as such

   

Friday 3:36 AM

Another meh hand.

   

Friday 5:12 AM

Tossing the 4/6 was my first impulse. I might have overthought this one.

   

Friday 5:19 AM

It was close for me between 2-2 or 4-6. Like the 2-2 better in the crib as opp is most likely not tossing us a 5, and it leaves some maneuverability in the pegging (with a 3-card magic 11 as well), but in the end, liked the A-2-2 intact allowing for some decent to excellent hands with any A, 2, or 3 cut. If the nickel happens to get cut, it would provide a little help to our hand and a potential powerful crib.

   

Friday 5:23 AM

Only considered the 4-6 or the 2-2. I prefer putting odd cards in my crib when possible, but never really considered tossing myself A-4 and keeping the 2-2-6-T (which, it would appear as of 8:30 EDT no one did).

   

Friday 5:59 AM

Purely because of board position, and not because I'm particularly fond of tossing the pair of 2's in my crib. I think (A 4 6 10) will give me more flexibility to peg defensively with both a magic 11 and a sweet 16, at the same time avoiding much damage on the other side of the board, which is key here for me. After the Q cut which gives me a minimum combined 7 points (4 hand + 2 crib + 1 peg), let's be opportunistic and play a safe strategy for the pegging.

   

Friday 6:35 AM

Dislike 46 to the crib, and we have good pegging cards, including a possible 5-trap with that 46 on the second series. Deuces the 4th best pair to throw to the crib.

   

Friday 6:40 AM

same reasons as Fetch

   

Friday 7:40 AM

103*-105…119-115*…current dealer will not get 16 points from this hand so the plot thickens . It’s between 4-6 & 2-2. I liked the A-4 in my keep to link to the ten. The keep A-4-6-10 gets cut help from 10/13 ranks. Either toss gets very little direct help from Pone’s most frequent discards to crib.

   

Friday 1:35 PM

I'm not really attracted to any other hand than A-2-2-10 (4-6) but I'll also look at 2-2-6-10 (A-4) and A-4-6-10 (2-2):

A-2-2-10: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.85) = 8pts

2-2-6-10: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

A-4-6-10: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.72) = 7¾pts

Potential:

A-2-2-10: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 444, 5555 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 3333, 101010 = 12 cuts.

2-2-6-10: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 5555, 666, 7777, 9999, 101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6pts with 22, 3333, 5555, 7777 = 14 cuts.

A-4-6-10: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/8/9pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010 = 13 cuts.

Position:

We're 7pts past 3rd street positional hole and Pone is 7pts short of where they would like to be so I think we should play Defense.

Pegging:

A-2-2-10 will peg well with 3 low cards and a high card but also A-4-6-10 should with two low cards a middle card and a high card together with a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

A-2-2-10 is best for starting value by ¼pt over A-4-6-10. However A-4-6-10 is best for cuts for improvement and has 13 cuts for 6-9pts compared to 12 cuts for 8-14pts with A-2-2-10 while 2-2-6-10 has 14 cuts for only 6pts. I think with the best starting value and 12 cuts for 8-14pts clinches it and it will also peg well so I'll throw the suited 4-6.

   

Friday 1:40 PM

At 77*-79 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-4-6-10___4.52+(-1.91)+5.44=8.05____21.9____50.5
A-2-2-10___6.57+(-2.33)+3.75=7.99____22.3____50.7
2-2-6-10___3.78+(-2.02)+5.34=7.10____16.6____47.4

Defense______L3 %____L4 %
A-4-6-10______22.3____34.6
A-2-2-10______21.5____34.1
2-2-6-10______20.8____37.8

A-4-6-10 is best for expected averages by a slim 0.06pt. but A-2-2-10 is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. As we're at a critical board position I'll decide based on the Win/Loss
%s and select the suited 4-6 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Friday 1:56 PM

Opponent needs 16 points for upcoming deal (4th street CPZ 95-99); so, my choice is cautious offense (optimal). Combined values pointed to this choice (pegs, hand, and crib scores). Would play the six on a 9 for 15-2, if n/d pairs, score 31-2 with the 10. Also play the 6 on a X-lead, hoping to close the count with the 4-A for 31-2. So be it!

   

Saturday 1:53 AM

Defense. dec