May 14, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by joekayak
0-0*  ?
62%
30%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 215
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:01 AM
It's usually a bad idea to give your Opponent your best two cards.

Still, Toss (2 3) is somewhat tempting, and I'm sure many will try it, not so much to retain the Double RUN for Eight Points, but in order for a Dozen Cuts (5555, TT, JJJ, QQQ) to give us Fifteen Points or more!

And yet if we Keep (2 3 T T), we begin with Six Points, and we still have Thirty Cuts (AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, TT, JJJ, QQQ, KKKK) that start us off with Eight Points or more.

Mathematically, it's like asking, "Do we want to add Four Points after Toss (2 3) or do we want to add Five Points and Toss (J Q)?" It's not too close if we examine it in this manner, so I'm inclined to Toss (J Q).

However, Toss (2 3) is probably not a mistake or even wrong. Positionally, we start out with a 6% less chance of winning as the First Non Dealer, and we often look to "close that gap" by playing aggressively. It's just that when it comes to Toss (2 3), I'm sorry, but my heart's not in it.

After the Deuce of Hearts Cut, yes, we gave away 'Nobs' today, but we now have a Dozen Points, since any Cut Card that 'matches' any card in a hand like Keep (2 3 T T) instantly Doubles such a Hand.

Let's lead the Trey.
jmudge says: This is the type of critical thinking I lack as a novice player (I took the bait and threw the 23, and after seeing the cut, I regretted it). Thanks, JQT!
JQT says: Thanks for the kind words. Even though the program doesn't agree with us today, this is the start of a new game, and almost by definition, that means this is the most difficult place on the board to project ahead. The guideline I use in Cribbage is that, after when studying all information from strong players and programs about a particular idea, which discard would I then be likely to play in the same or a similar position in the future? Some have posited that a certain proportion of games are won or lost on the first deal, and if we Toss (2 3) and don't get our cut today, we may end up losing. The question then presents itself: can we come out ahead holding the Double Run more than 50% of the time? I think it may actually be quite close, but I would probably still caution against Toss (2 3), since (as I enumerated above) we're still betting on only a Dozen Cuts.
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 3:05 AM
Keeping two 10s the JQ seem to be a fairly safe toss, unless I’m playing Jim Tuning (Club 232). The man lives with 5s in his cribs.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:50 AM
Congrats to Hillchem on his victory yesterday, and his high league position. Just two more weeks to go!

2-3 is too risky and T-Q hurts my hand too much, so J-Q it is.
Hillchem says: Thanks so much. To explain to others, James and I faced off on competitive Cribbage Pro yesterday. I was blessed with terrific hands when I needed them. I spent most of the game playing offensive and often got double runs that would peg well. Good game,James.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:52 AM
Now where did I leave those twos and threes in the deck? Card sorting. Seriously other situations I would do 2-3 not here with chances for a dozen still. dec
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 4:36 AM
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 4:37 AM
Not optimal but not certain disaster and more upside to the double run.
Samgash33
128 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 5:05 AM
Willing to take some risk - especially early and as first nondealer.
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
Saturday 5:48 AM
Throw QJ without thinking about it!!
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 6:34 AM
From a mathematical standpoint, I know that (J Q) is the right discard, as it has a higher expected hand value and a safer discard than (2 3), so I did select it. But I don't like a (J Q) suited discard either, and I may not be afraid of (2 3) as some are, despite the inherent danger. In reality, if I was in a "fighting" mood early, or in desperation for a win, I might "chance" the toss of (2 3) on the first hand with a double run made of face cards occasionally...but not as a rule!
Sally3
303 votes

Joined: October 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 6:41 AM
I agree with Andy, and most others :)
usacoder
968 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 6:45 AM
It's early & never give up a double run.
Sally3 says: I used to think that way before I came to this site several years ago. Now I pay more attention to how many cuts will help my hand, and what damage my toss could do. So, it;s orth giving up 2 points to start with since less cuts help the double run, and more damage from the wicked 2-3.
Sally3 says: The beauty of this site is that the "big boys" let us into their head, which has helped me make "smarter" decisions when I'm actually playing and has to make quick assessments. Forever grateful :)
james500 says: Hi both, hope you're well. I wholeheartedly agree with your second posting Sally. I'm also very grateful for the insight I've gained from those on this site.
Eolus619
1343 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 6:55 AM
Recently Ras counseled there will be occasions, from GFD, when not to apply Colvert’s admonition for Pone to be on all out offense. That would be today. Have a look @ the ten most frequent dealer discards in order…half of the first six most frequent discards give immediate help to a 2-3..AND 2-3 happens to be the second most frequent dealer discard to own crib.
fentesk
1204 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 8:48 AM
Came down to 2-3, Q-10, or J-Q for me. As first pone I want to play offense and am willing to take more risk to avoid the lower scoring Q-10. I'm not thrilled with sending either of the other two, and while the J-Q is safer than 2-3, avoiding pegging with four X cards pushed me to keep the 2-3 and send the J-Q.

I'm happy with the cut and leading a 3.
winesteward48
835 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 9:09 AM
If we were dealer what a nice hand. Alas we are not. So let's keep 6 points and send J-Q to the crib. 2-3 too dangerous. Plus 10-10 may keep the J-Q from blooming into a large crib. Might even peg a point or two with this keep.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 10:16 AM
Choosing offense strategy, holding the X-point double run has the edge. Had the hand been 10-J-J-Q, 2-3 would be the toss. Doesn't work that way with J-Q or 10-J discards. Lead a ten spot and take any pegs offered. Neither choice (2-3-10-10 or 10-10-J-Q pegs 1.5 points on average for n/d; so it comes down to the much greater potential hand value of the double run. Considered only combined value (pegs, hand score, less the crib score). Did not consider win/loss %. Wouldn't you know? Cut that lousy deuce!
MiketheExpert says: Hi Ras. For me, had the hand been (10-J-J-Q), I would have been even LESS inclined to toss (2-3), as I much prefer tossing (10-Q) to (J-Q), especially with 2 J's in my hand. I am quite surprised to learn that the numbers playing an offense strategy would still support throwing the 2-3 here.
Ras2829 says: H MiketheExpert: Very sorry, my message above is haywire. Agree with your assessment. Above "2-3 would be the toss", that should read "10-Q would be the toss." Sorry. My fingers didn't key what my mind was saying.
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 10:54 AM
Got it now, thanks! :)
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 12:33 PM
I think it's between 2-3-10-10 (J-Q) and the double-run 10-10-J-Q (2-3):

2-3-10-10: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.46) = +¼pt

10-10-J-Q: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = +½pt

Potential:

2-3-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 12xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 1010 = 20 cuts.

10-10-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 9999 + 12xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 15/16pts with 5555, 1010, JJJ, QQQ = 12 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

As First Pone I'll play Offense and try to reach positional hole at 18pts or more.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 2-3-10-10 will peg better than 10-10-J-Q.

Summary:

10-10-J-Q is better for starting value by ¼pt but 2-3-10-10 has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 9-12pts. 10-10-J-Q has fewer cuts for improvement and fewer cuts for a good to very good hand but 12 cuts for 15/16pts. And although I think 2-3-10-10 will peg slightly better than 10-10-J-Q the latter has an extra approx. ¼pt nob potential. So I will risk the 2-3.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 12:56 PM
never break up a double run ... well now ... not always ...
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 2:02 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
10-10-J-Q__10.63+1.13+(-7.05)=4.71____30.9____23.6
2-3-10-10___8.35+1.30+(-5.39)=4.26____25.6____24.2
2-3-10-J____7.09+1.35+(-4.39)=4.05____23.4____23.5

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
10-10-J-Q_____44.5____52.6
2-3-10-10_____37.9____50.2
2-3-10-J______36.1____50.1

10-10-J-Q is best for expected averages by 0.45pt and is considerably best for Win %s. 10-10-J-Q is significantly worst for Loss %s because of the very risky 2-3. Even so I'll select this to discard.

After the 2H cut I'll lead a 10 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
10__________________1.26
Q___________________1.13
J___________________1.03