May 20, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
63-60*  ?
50%
28%
13%
4%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 228
JQT
3488 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:03 AM
We are Pone, sitting safely ensconced just Seven Holes away from attaining the Third Street Par Hole 70.

Meanwhile, the Dealer is Ten Holes 'shy' of this very same critical target. We need to step-on-it, and reach as far beyond Hole 70 as possible by the completion of this deal.

We could either: Toss (3 Q), Toss (3 6), or Toss (9 Q). I initially tend to like these in the order listed, since Keep (A 5 6 9) looks to be our most powerful hand.

Toss (9 Q) is what we would consider if we were defending, but it might also allow us to peg quite a bit, and 'make up' the difference for only starting with Two Points, and so I don't dismiss it quite readily today.

Toss (3 6) would be a "balanced" approach, as it leaves us with a widely-spaced bunch, but we should prefer a more aggressive approach here.

Let's Keep (A 5 6 9) and Toss (3 Q).

After the Trey Cut, we now still hold Four Points.

We would normally lead the 6 Card from such a hand, after which we could peg on Twenty-One replies (AAA, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888, 999).

But in this Relative Position, it's probably more aggressive if we lead our 9 Card, after which we can still peg on several replies (AAA, 555, 666), and probably score more by the time the pegging is all over.
JQT says: While any of these Top Three Discard Choices should likely allow us to reach our Target Hole 70 today, remember: Our chances of winning go up *dramatically* for every single hole we can secure ABOVE AND BEYOND our Positional Target(s).
JQT says: I'm allowed to make one error per month, and so I should have said in my posting above that: After the Trey Cut, we now hold Six (not Four) Points.
JQT says: As noted by many, Keep (A 5 6 9) begins with an extra Two Points over Keep (A 3 5 6), and so the first hand gets us the highest Expected Value of 6.83 Points, while the latter hand only reaches 5.48 Points. Starting with less, it can therefore never fully make up for those 'lost' Two Points. The difference is 1.35 Points, and being a Full Extra Point beyond the Par Hole will boost our chances of winning considerably.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. Now that you see we have 6, are you still being as aggressive with the 9 lead. And why is it better in your opinion if being aggressive than the 6?
JQT says: When we are at or near a critical zone or par hole, we seek to play aggressively, with less regard for our Opponent's movement. And when we have a hand with one higher-ranking card and three cards that are lower-ranking, leading the higher-ranking card essentially back-loads our scoring opportunities, at the cost of probably also yielding or giving up more points to our opponent. But in this instance, when we find ourselves at or near a par hole, we generally prefer such a tradeoff, as it stands to benefit us more than our opponent. The 9 Card Lead, as well as Toss (3 Q) itself, may not always produce more points for us as Pone (and it may seem that I was indicating this above; that's not quite correct), but these do both tend to optimize for this. A 6 Card Lead allows us to score on nearly half of all replies in the remaining deck (21 cards), and after a 9 Card Response and (15=2) from the Dealer, we can PAIR it and push the Count up safely to Twenty-Four. If we lead the 9 Card however, now we actually have fewer responses after which we can score immediately, and if the Dealer plays a 6 Card for (15=2), now we can only score by PAIRING the 6 Card and bringing the Count up to Twenty-One, where the Dealer can more easily obtain (32=2). But in most instances, the 9 Card Lead "trades off" those higher early chances to parry the Dealer, and also gives the Dealer a better opportunity to score against us, all the while aiming for the much better chances of us later scoring even more points with our lower-ranking cards. Note that against four Ten (or "X") Cards, that if Dealer holds three-of-a-kind, leading the 9 Card actually risks us losing the pegging battle by a margin of Two Points to Seven Points! Or if the "X" Cards form a Run, we could lose by a margin of Two Points to Four Points. Leading the 6 Card would probably limit the damage to be a margin or One Point for Two Points. But with many (if not most) Dealer Hands, leading the 9 Card today should maximize the absolute value of our own pegging, and this should help us.
JQT says: The term (32=2) above should of course read (31=2). "It's good to find that, when we are 'off' or 'miss,' that we don't miss by much."
james500
3260 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:04 AM
Four points initially with most cuts adding more, so I *should* be able to reach hole 69 or beyond for the next deal.
Ace lead.
Gougie00
5045 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:31 AM
Thought about 9Q. Need an escape card. Lead the ace
Samgash33
101 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 3:44 AM
I tend to lead the A here but suspect that is not the best course.
bbaer1
3073 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Friday 3:49 AM
This hand improves with every cut, has a balking crib toss to boot. After the cut I need to peg one to hit hole #70, and I didn’t feed their crib.
dec
5665 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:15 AM
Fine line between defense and offense here. Maybe not be the overall best in averages. They are gonna need a boot load of fives for the crib. Pegging Lead the ace and hope they do not have an A-2-2-3 arrangement. dec
Sally3
221 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Friday 4:27 AM
Echo Brian and Dan.


Fender Bass
363 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Friday 4:32 AM
Always like to toss Q/9 and lots of cut and pegging possibilities.
mrob2199
991 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 5:06 AM
I like the more offensive keep of A569 here-we want to get as close to 70 as we can and only a 2 cut keeps us short of at least a 6 point hand
JQT says: I am curious about which card you might lead today?
mrob2199 says: I vary it up between the A or 9 here-I would like to get over the 70 mark here so I’ll lead the 9-if dealer has a 3 picture and 5 hand we will peg 4 to his 1
scottcrib
961 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Friday 5:40 AM
A-3 is too potent to toss, so Q-3 it is. Lead the A.
wasa
2376 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 5:52 AM
If this wasn't a RAS hand, I would have tossed the 3-Q. But because it's a RAS hand, bet you $0.01 that he's trying to teach me something. Guessing it's that the A-3-5-6 pegs so much better than any other combo and I will make up the 2 points by tossing the 9-Q.

At least I think that's today's lesson.
LoneStarPegger
727 votes

Joined: January 2008

 
 
 
Friday 6:23 AM
Choosing Defense here, so only keeping 2 with many options for 6 and some pegs. Will lead the 3.
MiketheExpert
452 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:49 AM
This score calls for some aggression, being only seven points shy of 3rd street CPZ, but with a below average hand. (9 Q) is still not bad, leaving you with only a 2-pt starting hand, but still pretty good pegging prospects. I think, however, this score requires you keep your most powerful starting hand, which is (A 5 6 9), so I will toss (3 Q). The 3 cut increases our holding to 6 pts, thus I feel pretty confident I will earn a point or more by leading the A. I have a scoring 15 response based on a "favoured" 5 reply, and may pick off a run quite easily towards the end of pegging.
MiketheExpert says: Don't mind the 6 lead either here, as I can score a pair directly off a 9 for 15-2, but I think the A is even more aggressive.
Eolus619
679 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 7:00 AM
63-60*…73*-76…99*-102….choosing offense…toss 3-Q and only a deuce cut doesn’t help the keep.
fentesk
552 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Friday 8:05 AM
Spooked by seeing it's a puzzle from Ras. I'll take the better starting hand and toss Q-3. The desire for offensive pegging makes me look at A-3-5-6, but I don't peg well enough to take advantage (if there is an advantage to have).
winesteward48
229 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 8:38 AM
When I have this assortment I usually select this. So far so good.
Coeurdelion
4951 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 2:41 PM
We can hold 4pts with A-5-6-9 (3-Q) and 5-6-9-Q (A-3) and perhaps A-3-5-6 (9-Q) is worth looking at too:

A-5-6-9: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = -½pt

5-6-9-Q: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt

A-3-5-6: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts

Potential:

A-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 = 20 cuts.

5-6-9-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 7/8/9pts with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 999, QQQ = 19 cuts.

A-3-5-6: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 = 27 cuts.

Position:

We're only 7pts away from 3rd street positional hole but if Dealer scores the average they will reach 76pts. They are likely to be ahead of us but 10pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

With three low cards and a middle card I think A-3-5-6 will peg best.

Summary:

A-5-6-9 has the best starting value by ½pt over 5-6-9-Q and 1½pts over A-3-5-6. It also has a good number of cuts for improvement but is not guaranteed improvement like A

-3-5-6 is. It also has 20 cuts for 7-10pts while A-3-5-6 has 27 cuts for 5-8pts which is a big increase on 2pts. It also should peg best. Will it catch up the 1½pts? I think it may well so I'll throw the excellent defensive discard 9-Q.
HalscribCLX
4677 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 2:50 PM
At 63-60* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W4 %____W5 %
A-5-6-9____6.83+1.46+(-4.48)=3.81____18.8____49.9
A-3-5-6____5.48+2.09+(-3.98)=3.59____17.1____48.3
5-6-9-Q____6.39+1.54+(-4.91)=3.02____18.6____49.6
A-5-9-Q____6.00+1.35+(-4.47)=2.88____15.7____46.1

Offense______L4 %____L5 %
A-5-6-9_______14.4____28.5
A-3-5-6_______12.9____28.9
5-6-9-Q_______14.4____28.4
A-5-9-Q_______13.6____30.9

A-5-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt. and is very slightly best for Win %s and is very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-Q to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
9_____________________1.62
6_____________________1.53
A_____________________1.26
5_____________________1.14
Ras2829
4493 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 7:31 PM
Submitted this puzzle as thought few would see just how close holding A-3-5-6 was to this keep. The A-3-5-6 is helped by every cut and out pegs other choices by a good margin. Dealer has the deck 9 holes short of 3rd street CPZ; so seems ideal to move down the board for n/d. That means offense to include the pegging. After seeing the starter card, knowing n/d has six points, lead the 9 and take pegs as offered. N/d already knows will have minimal 3rd street positional advantage with the upcoming deal at hole 69 or beyond. Two-three pegs would be a good thing. Taking two pegs here and giving up six would be a good exchange. If playing defense the A can be pegged only with another Ace. The 5 is the second most defensive lead as it breaks the two card sequence, avoids pegging runs by doing so, and the worst thing that can happen if choosing defense is for dealer to score two pegs.
Ras2829 says: Not suggesting that n/d should play a defense strategy on this deal -just wanted to show how pegging choices reverse themselves. If you turn HalscribCLX pegging chart above upside down, then you can see the better defensive pegging choices at the top of the list. This is true most every day; the best defensive pegging choices will be at the bottom of the Halscrib chart if an offense strategy has been selected and vica versa.