May 22, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
84-67*  ?
43%
40%
4%
2%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 209
JQT
3488 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:03 AM
We are Pone at Hole 84, trying to enjoy our Seventeen-Point Lead. If we can become Next Dealer from at or beyond the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, we shall have a fairly good chance of SKUNKING our Opponent.

Our Opponent is however the Dealer, just Three Holes 'shy' of the Third Street Par Hole 70, and so with the right amount of blundering by us, we could still quite easily lose this game.

We could Toss (2 7), or Toss (9 Q), or we could even Toss (7 Q). The three-card "Sweet Sixteen" of 2-5-9 after we Toss (7 Q) is an interesting find, and after leading either a Deuce or a 9 Card, we are ready if the Dealer unloads a 5 Card.

Aggressive pegging is what may either secure us a SKUNK, or ruin us, today. However, I'm interested in seeing the Cut Card before I get all excited and lead a 9 Card or a 7 Card from such a potentially volatile pegging hand.

We really don't want to have the Dealer scoring an extended RUN, or a PAIRS Royal with 5 Cards, especially after we see something such as a 5 Card Cut, for example!

While Keep (A 5 9 Q) and Toss (2 7) does allow us to begin with a 'static' Four Points, I'm not too wild about the Toss (2 7) discard idea. There are simply too many cards (222, 6666, 777, 8888) that add immediate points to such a discard.

Thus, I think it's a choice between Toss (9 Q) and Toss (7 Q) here, and I believe that Toss (9 Q) is the clear choice today. As you can probably ascertain, I find the pegging aspects of both yesterday's and today's puzzles at least as intriguing as the discarding decisions!

After the Trey Cut, we now hold Seven Points (it's easy to miscount this!) in our Hand. Let's lead the Deuce, since, unlike any other card, this allows us to score somewhat safely after Ten Replies (333, 777, 8888, 999) by the Dealer.

It looks dangerous if the Dealer entices us with a Trey Reply (remember that "blundering" I warned about earlier), but after we score A-2-3, we do have a 5 Card for: A-2-3-4-5 for (15-7)!

And, should it go even further, we also have a 7 Card as our final rejoinder: A-2-3-4-5-6-7 for (28-7 or 28-8)! After which, we would simply have to HOPE that the Dealer isn't holding yet another Trey!
JQT says: Two teensy errors: "score somewhat safely after Ten Replies" should read "... after Thirteen Replies," and; if we lead a Deuce to begin the LONG Run Sequence as indicated, the Dealer would score 'bigly' (30=8) with a final Deuce, and not with another Trey.
james500
3260 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 3:10 AM
Every cut is helpful to me, and there's very little synergy between a black Queen and a red 7.

2 lead from the 2-5-9 combo:
2(2)-5(7)-5(12/2)-X(22)-9(31/2).
wasa
2376 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 3:18 AM
Balk opponent's crib
mrob2199
991 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 4:05 AM
We have to try to get past 90 here for our next deal-it would be a nice added benefit to keep dealer down but we have to keep our max points here-lead the Q and be willing to match a 5 response and hopefully score a 31 too
Gougie00
5045 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:11 AM
My goal is 95, but 90 is certainly attainable. Lousy cut. Lead the Queen and we might stumble into a few points pegging.
Ras2829
4493 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:12 AM
Like several hands recently, playing two points is preferable to playing four points when a low-scoring discard possible. Today it is the 9-Q which scores 0-2 points 42.224%. Lead the deuce and peg with caution, Dealer is short of 3rd street CPZ (69-73) and needs 28 to reach 4th street CPZ (95-99). So, defense it is to include the pegging to retain n/d relative positional advantage. The positional advantage is much smaller than the 17-point lead would suggest. all cuts improve A-2-5-7
MiketheExpert
452 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 5:09 AM
We have a 17-pt lead on the board which is not quite as big as it appears. Even here, we are not on pace to deal from hole 95 on the next hand, and dealer is dealing fom short of where he would like to be, so though the inclination may be to want to push ahead and separate ourselves even more, I think we will be best served by continuing to hold current dealer back, and a great defensive discard such as (9 Q) is quite worth the opening hand 2-pt "sacrifice" in my opinion. I also like the pegging hand if (A 2 5 7) and potential to improve significantly better, so double the reason on this day for me to choose the (9 Q) throw.
MiketheExpert says: Like many of the others so far, I also do like the deuce lead best playing a defense strategy, whereas the 7 would be more appropriate for offense, and I am also choosing defense to include the pegging.
dec
5665 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:16 AM
So, we need 37 more points. That sounds like we need four more deals let's keep them back seeing they would need five deals . Defense. Two lead here. dec
Fender Bass
363 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 5:18 AM
Q/9 a good toss and some cut and pegging possibilities.
scottcrib
961 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 5:23 AM
Playing defense here. Only a 4 doesn't help me. Cut gives me seven so I'm up to 91 already. Peg cautious defense. Lead the A.
fentesk
552 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 6:36 AM
I like hands I can use highly defensive discard while also keeping one of the better scoring 4-card combos. Today that's Q-9. While only starting with 2, as long as I dodge the 4 cut, I get at least 4.

We're too far away from 96+ to choose a hand for full offense, and while the 2-7 discard gives us a true 4-point start, it's not nearly strong enough to have a great preference for, and I'd rather discard Q-9 over 2-7.

After the cut I'm 5 short of 96, no reason to push for it here, so I'll play defense and lead the 2.
Eolus619
679 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 6:56 AM
…84-67*…94*-83…110-93*…More concerned about not losing this game than earning a skunk. Would like to be at least +1 to the averages two hands from now . 9-Q #3 on Ras’s list of top ten
Pone discards for earning 0-2. Only a four cut does not help my keep. hmmm ..a three cut , while helpful for five more points( now 7 total) seems likely to make this a game of three more hands
Eolus619 says: BTW..if you have not read Ras’s late post yesterday suggest you do…and re read JQT’s while you are there
Eolus619 says: whoops….upon further review ..the four does help ..so 13/13 ranks
Eolus619 says: second guessed myself..can’t add..where is Rosemarie when she is needed ..four does not help
Samgash33
101 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 7:37 AM
Given the tough path to the CPZ, I’ll go for a great defensive toss without sacrificing much upside. Hopefully we can keep opponent from taking away position. Willing to take some safe pegs certainly.
Coeurdelion
4951 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 1:42 PM
I think it's between A-5-9-Q (2-7) and A-2-5-7 (9-Q):

A-5-9-Q: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

A-2-5-7: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts

Potential:

A-5-9-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/10pts with AAA, 555, 999, QQQ = 12 cuts.

A-2-5-7: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/7/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 = 24 cuts.

Position:

We're only 2pts short of the ideal position of 86pts to reach 4th street positional hole at 96pts with the average 10pts as Pone. Dealer is 3pts short of 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think A-2-5-7 should peg better with three low cards and a middle card.

Summary:

A-5-9-Q is better for starting value by 1pt. but A-2-5-7 has more cuts for improvement and 24 cuts for 6-8pts which is a big increase on 2pts compared to 12 cuts for 8/10pts with A-5-9-Q. Also A-2-5-7 should peg better so I'll throw the good defensive 9-Q.
HalscribCLX
4677 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 1:46 PM
At 84-67* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W3 %____W4 %
A-2-5-7____5.17+2.07+(-4.04)=3.20____32.3____73.1
A-5-9-Q____6.04+1.35+(-4.75)=2.65____31.8____70.9
A-5-7-9____4.87+1.80+(-4.51)=2.16____28.7____69.5

Offense______L3 %____L4 %
A-2-5-7_______5.4_____19.1
A-5-9-Q_______6.4_____20.9
A-5-7-9_______6.1_____21.6

A-2-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.55pt. and it is appreciably best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 9-Q to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
7___________________1.89
2___________________1.76
5___________________1.73
A___________________1.54
Sally3
221 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 2:39 PM
ditto