Monday 3:02 AM

Like keeping the 2445 here. Should be able to peg a few.

   

Monday 3:03 AM

Cribbage Pro never heard of the word “defense “.

   

Monday 3:15 AM

I'll rule out 2-5 and 2-4c straight away as too risky.

J-A is interesting because I know a pair of fours and a 5 are all out of circulation, so there's a wee bit of negative delta working in my favour. A different X card, and I think I might have chosen it.

445J still benefits from the open ended double run chance that 2445 has, but retains the Jack for that 25 percent chance at a bonus point. Avoid cutting an 8 or 9, and my hand will become more valuable.

   

Monday 3:22 AM

Let's go wide. A 3 or 6 would be nice. Lead the 4.

   

Monday 3:31 AM

My algorithm's choice was A-J toss which scored the toss at 6.73. I was thinking of doing a 2-J toss, in which the algorithm scores 5.13.

The algorithm scores A-2 toss at 5.57 and 2-5 at 5.4.

With the Jack show card, I was right for once.

   

Monday 3:48 AM

Second choice was to toss the A-2, my third choice was the 2-J

   

Monday 3:49 AM

You look at your cards and say if it was my crib I would... (5-2) . Here I almost did A-2 instead, but if another four gets cut along with a three or a six. Lead a four pair me now! dec

   

Monday 4:00 AM

We are no doubt 90% sure that we've had this hand before, and we're certainly 100% sure we've been in this position.

We could begin with Four Points after Toss (A J) or Toss (A 2), or we could start with Six Points, but only after we Toss (2 5).

The problem with Toss (2 5) is not so much that it allows our Opponent to have the 5 Card, per se, but that it 'splits' up the 4 Card PAIR from the 5 Card.

If we retain the 4-4-5 trio, then Toss (A J) looks like the safer of the two alternatives, although it shouldn't go unnoticed that giving away a Jack both reduces our own potential and boosts that of our Opponent, due to the 25% chance of the Cut Card being a Diamond Suit and thus the propensity for "Knave Noddy" or "Knave Nobs" or just plain Nobs.

Technically, the odds of cutting a Diamond Suit are 11 DIV 46 equals 0.23913 or about 24%, and not 25%, since we were dealt two Diamond Suits today. And the fact that Toss (A J) means we must 'pitch' two cards of the Same Suit 'over the board' don't mean diddly. Crib FLUSHES are so rare in Cribbage, they can virtually be ignored.

In spite of all those Jack Concerns and possible Diamond Suit Cuts, I still believe that Toss (A J) is the way to proceed here. Now that we have had a closer look in fact, Toss (2 J) is maybe another discard choice we could consider.

After we Keep (2 4 4 5) and Toss (A J), lo and behold, we Cut not a Diamond Suit but a Club Suit, and a Jack after all. Therefore, we now hold Six Points in our Hand, and we know of a PAIR of Jacks in the Enemy Crib.

Let's lead a 4s Card from our motley PAIR, and hope that the Dealer has ONE (and only ONE) 4 Card, and doth decide to PAIR us, right-out-the-gate.

   

Monday 4:12 AM

The dangerous A-2 toss is not worth keeping the J, IMO.

   

Monday 5:03 AM

Generally speaking I avoid tossing a Jack if the choices are close. In this case I agree with Scott regarding A2 vs. AJ: A2 doesn't look that dangerous, but 23 is the second-most frequent throw after 78.

   

Monday 5:10 AM

Six points for an X card cut and maybe cut a 6 or 3. J/2 even numbers for opp's crib. Good pegging possibilities.

   

Monday 5:25 AM

Choosing an offense strategy to include the pegging, only considered tossing A-J or 2-J. The 2-4-4-5 is a nifty four-pint hand which is often helped very substantially by the starter card. And A-J is the lowest scoring of any discard form this hand even if considering the potential added value of the Jack to the crib.

   

Monday 5:25 AM

I liked keeping the 4-4-5 together if practical, and the 2 building in a 15-2 makes it more attractive.

2-5 gives up too much for me today, even wanting to play offense from the start. I'm not particularly worried about the J in the crib. Sure, it is worth ~0.25 points, but that value is built in to the discard tables, and A-J is one of, if not the, least valuable crib tosses possible from these cards (similar to J-4, but that leaves us a zero start, but it does improve with every cut, which I like, but not nearly enough today).

   

Monday 7:07 AM

Keep 2-4-4-5 gets cut help from 12/13 ranks. Although 4 of the top ten most frequent dealer discards to crib contribute immediate points, A-J should yield an average crib.

   

Monday 7:09 AM

Keep 2-4-4-5 gets cut help from 12/13 ranks. Although 4 of the top ten most frequent dealer discards to crib contribute immediate points, A-J should yield an average crib.

   

Monday 7:26 AM

Ack! Never even considered the choice most of you made. Filed it away in my cribbage brain now lol

   

Monday 8:01 AM

Throwing the (2 5) on first deal is not actually as "crazy" as it appears on first glance. After all, there are quite a few cuts with (A 4 4 J) that will propel you quite a bit further along the board, and as far as crib throws go with a 5, (2 5) is not all that scary. But I can't break apart the (4-4-5) combo, both with the cut and pegging potential. The other part which might give you pause for consideration is throwing the J in the enemy crib, which I don't like doing in general. However, compared to (A 2), the 0.2 extra I will give away is not much of a contest. So it really came down to (A J) or (2 J), and I would prefer to start with 4 pts instead of 2 and a better crib throw.

   

Monday 10:37 AM

Well, maybe I’m the only crazy one. But buying risk early in the game can be good. I know 2445 is better net, but I’m just starting out looking to maximize the hand. Can’t take position away as 1st pone unless you try. Hopefully I won’t have shot myself in the foot by giving ‘just enough’ points to a dealer who was going to fall off the pace. Either way, there’s enough game left to change tactics.

   

Monday 3:48 PM

I think it's between 2-4-4-5 (A-J) and 4-4-5-J (A-2):

2-4-4-5: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = -¾pt

4-4-5-J: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt

Potential:

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/12/14pts with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 9999 = 20 cuts.

4-4-5-J: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/14pts with 3333, 44, 555, 6666, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense to try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

2-4-4-5 has four small cards and a 3-card magic eleven so I think it will peg better.

Summary:

2-4-4-5 is better for starting value by ¼pt and has more cuts for improvement plus 20 cuts for 8-14pts compared to 16 cuts for 8-14pts with 4-4-5-J. Also it should peg better so I'll throw th A-J.

   

Monday 3:51 PM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-4-4-5____7.78+2.07+(-4.33)=5.52____27.3____25.7
A-4-4-5____6.83+2.35+(-4.71)=4.47____26.4____24.6
4-4-5-J____7.41+1.57+(-4.67)=4.31____25.4____23.9

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-4-4-5_______37.0____48.8
A-4-4-5_______37.6____49.8
4-4-5-J_______37.7____50.3

2-4-4-5 is best for expected averages by 1.05pts and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-J to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 4S and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
4____________________2.13
2____________________1.85
5____________________1.73