May 23, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Inushtuk1
0-0*  ?
41%
20%
15%
14%
6%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 255
Inushtuk1Cribbage Classic Pro Hint said toss (2-5). I don't think so.
Goatman
2061 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Monday 3:02 AM
Like keeping the 2445 here. Should be able to peg a few.
Goatman
2061 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Monday 3:03 AM
Cribbage Pro never heard of the word “defense “.
james500 says: I agree. The advice given by Cribbage Classic is to always hold the most gross points in hand and to take every peg possible during the play, warning of, "suboptimal", play when you don't. The game is a little more nuanced than that, as you well know. It doesn't seem to have had any discard value tables programmed in, for example, it sees all discarded pairs equally as worth two points, whether they be 5-5 or K-K. Neither does it recognise that 2-3, A-4 or 5-? guarantee two points when discarded, and will admonish you for making such discards if they reduce hand value. I find Cribbage Pro by Fuller systems to be a better app, although I tend to play online rather than against the software. I know some on here like to use Cribbage JD by JD software. I found this very easy to defeat even at the top "crazy ninja", level. I think the developers have recognised this to be the case though, as two new, harder, levels have appeared: "insane monkey", and, "impossible". There is also an app simply called "Cribbage" by Goodsoft that I quite like. It's very basic, but it does allow you to switch to the 5 card version of the game which I enjoy playing. My phone is Android, but I assume these are also available for Apple/Microsoft phones and tablets should you require it.
Ras2829 says: Most of the cribbage tutorials are designed by folks who understand computer mechanics, are good at graphics, and understand how to design algorithms. Few are even average cribbage players; so would not even notice some of the built-in problems with their cribbage programs. Hal Mueller was the one exception to that and Hal tossed in the towel a few years ago. Fortunately he left behind Halscrib, REX, and the Cribbage Prof. Unfortunately, those copyrighted programs can no longer be found, and most have no access.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi James. I trust you are well. I just installed Cribbage JD on my iPhone. I only have Easy, Medium. and Hard levels. In fine print below, it says, "More levels will unlock if you win against the highest level at a 40% win rate or higher." So that may be what happened with you, after you destroyed the app at the " crazy. ninja" level. Way to go. I cannot get "Cribbage" by Goodsoft on my iPhone.
james500
3260 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 3:15 AM
I'll rule out 2-5 and 2-4c straight away as too risky.

J-A is interesting because I know a pair of fours and a 5 are all out of circulation, so there's a wee bit of negative delta working in my favour. A different X card, and I think I might have chosen it.

445J still benefits from the open ended double run chance that 2445 has, but retains the Jack for that 25 percent chance at a bonus point. Avoid cutting an 8 or 9, and my hand will become more valuable.
Gougie00
5045 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:22 AM
Let's go wide. A 3 or 6 would be nice. Lead the 4.
usacoder
956 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Monday 3:31 AM
My algorithm's choice was A-J toss which scored the toss at 6.73. I was thinking of doing a 2-J toss, in which the algorithm scores 5.13.

The algorithm scores A-2 toss at 5.57 and 2-5 at 5.4.

With the Jack show card, I was right for once.
wasa
2376 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Monday 3:48 AM
Second choice was to toss the A-2, my third choice was the 2-J
dec
5665 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:49 AM
You look at your cards and say if it was my crib I would... (5-2) . Here I almost did A-2 instead, but if another four gets cut along with a three or a six. Lead a four pair me now! dec
JQT
3488 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:00 AM
We are no doubt 90% sure that we've had this hand before, and we're certainly 100% sure we've been in this position.

We could begin with Four Points after Toss (A J) or Toss (A 2), or we could start with Six Points, but only after we Toss (2 5).

The problem with Toss (2 5) is not so much that it allows our Opponent to have the 5 Card, per se, but that it 'splits' up the 4 Card PAIR from the 5 Card.

If we retain the 4-4-5 trio, then Toss (A J) looks like the safer of the two alternatives, although it shouldn't go unnoticed that giving away a Jack both reduces our own potential and boosts that of our Opponent, due to the 25% chance of the Cut Card being a Diamond Suit and thus the propensity for "Knave Noddy" or "Knave Nobs" or just plain Nobs.

Technically, the odds of cutting a Diamond Suit are 11 DIV 46 equals 0.23913 or about 24%, and not 25%, since we were dealt two Diamond Suits today. And the fact that Toss (A J) means we must 'pitch' two cards of the Same Suit 'over the board' don't mean diddly. Crib FLUSHES are so rare in Cribbage, they can virtually be ignored.

In spite of all those Jack Concerns and possible Diamond Suit Cuts, I still believe that Toss (A J) is the way to proceed here. Now that we have had a closer look in fact, Toss (2 J) is maybe another discard choice we could consider.

After we Keep (2 4 4 5) and Toss (A J), lo and behold, we Cut not a Diamond Suit but a Club Suit, and a Jack after all. Therefore, we now hold Six Points in our Hand, and we know of a PAIR of Jacks in the Enemy Crib.

Let's lead a 4s Card from our motley PAIR, and hope that the Dealer has ONE (and only ONE) 4 Card, and doth decide to PAIR us, right-out-the-gate.
scottcrib
961 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Monday 4:12 AM
The dangerous A-2 toss is not worth keeping the J, IMO.
Jazzselke
2102 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 5:03 AM
Generally speaking I avoid tossing a Jack if the choices are close. In this case I agree with Scott regarding A2 vs. AJ: A2 doesn't look that dangerous, but 23 is the second-most frequent throw after 78.
Fender Bass
363 votes

Joined: July 2021

 
 
 
Monday 5:10 AM
Six points for an X card cut and maybe cut a 6 or 3. J/2 even numbers for opp's crib. Good pegging possibilities.
Ras2829
4493 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 5:25 AM
Choosing an offense strategy to include the pegging, only considered tossing A-J or 2-J. The 2-4-4-5 is a nifty four-pint hand which is often helped very substantially by the starter card. And A-J is the lowest scoring of any discard form this hand even if considering the potential added value of the Jack to the crib.
Ras2829 says: Lead the four of clubs and take any pegs offered. Might as well have chance to fake a flush if dumping 5C next play. Faking a flush is not so noticeable with adjacent cards as it is if showing a suited 10-K, 6-K, or 9-Q. Sorry about the four-pint hand reference above. I'm not up to a single pint this early in the morn!
Ras2829 says: Sorry "four of clubs" above should read "four of spades". Then the verbiage to follow makes sense.
fentesk
552 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Monday 5:25 AM
I liked keeping the 4-4-5 together if practical, and the 2 building in a 15-2 makes it more attractive.

2-5 gives up too much for me today, even wanting to play offense from the start. I'm not particularly worried about the J in the crib. Sure, it is worth ~0.25 points, but that value is built in to the discard tables, and A-J is one of, if not the, least valuable crib tosses possible from these cards (similar to J-4, but that leaves us a zero start, but it does improve with every cut, which I like, but not nearly enough today).
Eolus619
679 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Monday 7:07 AM
Keep 2-4-4-5 gets cut help from 12/13 ranks. Although 4 of the top ten most frequent dealer discards to crib contribute immediate points, A-J should yield an average crib.
Eolus619
679 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Monday 7:09 AM
Keep 2-4-4-5 gets cut help from 12/13 ranks. Although 4 of the top ten most frequent dealer discards to crib contribute immediate points, A-J should yield an average crib.
Eolus619 says: Hope I only voted once!
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: Think you're protected from multiple votes. On this site, no matter how many times you pull the voting machine lever, you only get counted once.
Sally3
221 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Monday 7:26 AM
Ack! Never even considered the choice most of you made. Filed it away in my cribbage brain now lol
MiketheExpert
452 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Monday 8:01 AM
Throwing the (2 5) on first deal is not actually as "crazy" as it appears on first glance. After all, there are quite a few cuts with (A 4 4 J) that will propel you quite a bit further along the board, and as far as crib throws go with a 5, (2 5) is not all that scary. But I can't break apart the (4-4-5) combo, both with the cut and pegging potential. The other part which might give you pause for consideration is throwing the J in the enemy crib, which I don't like doing in general. However, compared to (A 2), the 0.2 extra I will give away is not much of a contest. So it really came down to (A J) or (2 J), and I would prefer to start with 4 pts instead of 2 and a better crib throw.
Samgash33
101 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Monday 10:37 AM
Well, maybe I’m the only crazy one. But buying risk early in the game can be good. I know 2445 is better net, but I’m just starting out looking to maximize the hand. Can’t take position away as 1st pone unless you try. Hopefully I won’t have shot myself in the foot by giving ‘just enough’ points to a dealer who was going to fall off the pace. Either way, there’s enough game left to change tactics.
MiketheExpert says: I didn't dismiss this throw right away. In fact, I can see a case in some tournaments or matches that it would be plausible to make this risk at first deal...if I absolutely needed a win, it might cover "more bases" so to speak..But the improvement upon a 3 or 6 cut with keeping a strong 4-4-5 just about negates this line of thinking.
Coeurdelion
4951 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 3:48 PM
I think it's between 2-4-4-5 (A-J) and 4-4-5-J (A-2):

2-4-4-5: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = -¾pt

4-4-5-J: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = -1pt

Potential:

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/12/14pts with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 9999 = 20 cuts.

4-4-5-J: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/10/14pts with 3333, 44, 555, 6666, JJJ = 16 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense to try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

2-4-4-5 has four small cards and a 3-card magic eleven so I think it will peg better.

Summary:

2-4-4-5 is better for starting value by ¼pt and has more cuts for improvement plus 20 cuts for 8-14pts compared to 16 cuts for 8-14pts with 4-4-5-J. Also it should peg better so I'll throw th A-J.
HalscribCLX
4677 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:51 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-4-4-5____7.78+2.07+(-4.33)=5.52____27.3____25.7
A-4-4-5____6.83+2.35+(-4.71)=4.47____26.4____24.6
4-4-5-J____7.41+1.57+(-4.67)=4.31____25.4____23.9

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-4-4-5_______37.0____48.8
A-4-4-5_______37.6____49.8
4-4-5-J_______37.7____50.3

2-4-4-5 is best for expected averages by 1.05pts and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-J to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 4S and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
4____________________2.13
2____________________1.85
5____________________1.73