Sunday 3:02 AM

Like keeping 566. Can’t toss 23 to dealer to keep the 9 so 92 to dealer. Got the cut I was looking for.

   

Sunday 3:12 AM

I'll keep all eight points.

To yesterday's list of five letter words with only three different letters, I'll offer Mummy, Daddy, Nanny, Lolly, Fluff, Cocoa, Llama, Toots and Hooch. Whether any of those are likely to feature on Wordle, I don't know.

   

Sunday 3:49 AM

Wish I knew in advance that the 4 would be the starter. The pregnant 3s gives me 8 and since its all about me, I kept the points.

It'll be a cold day in June before I do that. Well, its 49 here. Yikes.

   

Sunday 4:18 AM

I always like combinations of 3 6 9. Playing to my strengths today.

   

Sunday 4:37 AM

Still on first street. Attempt to slow down opponent and hope to reverse on second street in our favor. Six or hearts lead. dec

   

Sunday 5:14 AM

For hands like this I look to see if there is a viable way to not give up a 5, which today means either breaking the 2-3 or sending 6-9.

3-5-6-6 has about half the deck to get to 8+ points and outside shot at getting us back with the 4 while also holding dealer back with the weak 2-9.

Surprised (and pleased) with the cut.

   

Sunday 5:29 AM

This was probably a mistake. But with opponent 14 points behind next critical hole, I tossed 2-3 and hoped for the best. With this cut, we will be at hole 36+ dealing, so getting closer to taking back position. So I’ll lead a 6 and hope to trap a 4 for 5-point 31.

   

Sunday 5:30 AM

I see no reason to toss the dealer points. I still have several helpful cuts available and if the 4 is cut to help the crib, then it probably helps me more.

   

Sunday 5:34 AM

We are trailing the Dealer by Ten Holes on First Street, but there is some small consolation in that we have also passed the First Street Par Hole 18 by a few holes. Still, our Relative Position is "pants on fire"!

We were dealt a rather nice bunch of cards, which makes for a tricky discard, since we cannot Toss (2 3)! What can we risk?

The puzzle is clearly baiting us to Toss (2 5) and hold the Eight Points, and I'm tempted to take the bait today. Our main problem is that we need to get our own pegs MOVING, and after Toss (2 5), it should meet this objective.

We also have Keep (3 5 6 6) and Toss (2 9), which puts a damper on our own score, but also puts the brakes on what we give the Dealer. Those closely-knit cards offer us some real hope if we can get any of a Baker's Dozen or Thirteen fortunate Cut Cards (333, 4444, 66, 7777).

After the 4 Card Cut, those who decided to Toss (2 5) might want to scream, topple the game board, and pull the fire alarm. Those who decided to Toss (6 9) off-suit did okay!

But we got ourselves Sixteen Points! Yippee, but we're probably still losing. Let's lead a 6 Card from our PAIR.

   

Sunday 5:35 AM

I don’t love this as a pegging hand, but I’ll reduce by two points to avoid giving the dealer 2-3 in the crib.

   

Sunday 6:13 AM

It was either this or the 3669 discarding 2/5-prefer the more defensive toss with the open ended 566 here-just too much board remains to get too aggressive

   

Sunday 6:44 AM

*Happy Father's Day!* I'm keeping my points here. Not so worried about 2-5. Keith Widener always says that a 5 yields only 4 points in the crib 70% of the time. I cut wrong--this time.

   

Sunday 7:29 AM

This is a very good board position puzzle imo. Pone is being forced to decide to play O or D here….20-30*…30*-46…46-56*…56*-72…72-82*. Current dealer will be dealing first from CPZ #2 & #3 if things don’t change. Keep 3-5-6-6 gets cut help from 3,4,5,6,7,9 & all Xs.

   

Sunday 8:09 AM

Eight points is good

   

Sunday 8:50 AM

2/3 isn't always bad in opp's crib and I think there are more cuts available this way.

   

Sunday 8:56 AM

I decided to start with max points.

   

Sunday 9:53 AM

Note that the trouble has started early, but in no way should we exasperate things by throwing a discard such as (2 3). There is still plenty of time in this game, and we are at least over hole 18, and this should tell us that although we are in need of pegs to advance on the board, we should also concentrate on slowing dealer's movement just as much. Throwing the safe (2 9) seems to potentially accomplish both objectives the best, and also keeps intact many cuts for substantial improvement, including the bingo 4 cut for max 16 pts which we achieved on CHOD today if we chose to keep this hand. After the great cut, let's lead a 6 from our pair. Next puzzle of the day: If dealer continues by pairing this 6 lead, what is your next play?

   

Sunday 11:06 AM

*choke*

   

Sunday 2:02 PM

I think it's between 5-6-6-9 (2-3), 3-6-6-9 (2-5) and 3-5-6-6 (2-9):

5-6-6-9: 6pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = -1½pts

3-6-6-9: 8pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.11) = +1¾pts

3-5-6-6: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = -¾pt

Potential:

5-6-6-9: Improves with 333, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12/16pts with 4444, 66, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.

3-6-6-9: Improves with 333, 66, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/18pts with all cuts.

3-5-6-6: Improves with AAAA, 333, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/16pts with AAAA, 333, 4444, 66, 7777 = 17 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is likely to be at 2nd street positional hole first and we're well behind. I think our best tactic will be to play Defense and try to hold Dealer back.

Pegging:

I think playing Defense 3-6-6-9 will peg best.

Summary:

3-6-6-9 is best for starting value by 2½pts over 3-5-6-6 but it has very few cuts for improvement although the 8 will score 14/18pts. 3-4-6-6 has more cuts for improvement with 17 cuts for 8-16pts compared to 13 cuts for 12/16pts with 5-6-6-9. I also think it will peg slightly better than 5-6-6-9. So I'll throw the fairly Defensive 2-9.

   

Sunday 2:08 PM

At 20-30* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W6 %___W7 %
3-5-6-6____7.78+1.63+(-4.28)=5.13____2.2____10.8
3-6-6-9____9.22+1.13+(-6.22)=4.13____2.5____12.0
2-5-6-6____5.87+1.83+(-4.27)=3.43____2.0_____9.5
5-6-6-9____9.17+1.52+(-7.39)=3.30____2.7____12.1

Offense______W6 %___W7 %
3-5-6-6________9.9___44.2
3-6-6-9_______11.4___46.7
2-5-6-6_______10.0___44.8
5-6-6-9_______14.5___50.9

3-5-6-6 is best for expected averages by 1.0pt over 3-6-6-9 and although it doesn't have the best Win %s it is lowest for Loss %s. As it's early in the game I'll put the main emphasis on the expected averages so I'll select 2-9 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 6D and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
6__________________1.51
3__________________1.18
5__________________0.73

   

Sunday 8:35 PM

With dealer at hole 30, it's aggressive offense. That means not giving dealer 2-3 or 2-5; and it comes down then to a hand that can score 16 points; so, it has with that nifty four spot on the deck. Agree with lead of 6D and take any pegs offered. As noted by scottcrib above HalscribCLXchoice of 2-5-6-6 is a unique choice. Why? Because it does not allow 2-3 or 2-5 to dealer crib -so combined value favors holding a mere two points, not reduced by big crib total of 2-3 or 2-5. It would have been my third choice as well.