June 20, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
0-0*  ?
66%
9%
8%
4%
3%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 253
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Monday 3:01 AM
Go bold or go home.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:05 AM
Brand new game, we are the First Non Dealer.

We have a trio of interesting two-card combos: 2-3, 7-8, and J-J. We could hold Six Points and Keep (2 3 J J) and Toss (7 8), or maybe we could 'hedge' and Toss (8 J).

A gambler might even try to Keep (2 3 7 8) and Toss (J J)! If we attempt to be safe rather than sorry, it 'costs' us dearly, since we go from Six Points all the way down to Two Points to begin the day.

Therefore, I think I'll risk Toss (7 8) today.

After the Black Ten "T" Card Cut, we now have Eight Points in our Hand. Let's lead a Jack from our PAIR.

omg I got a score of 93 in WordPlay this morning, with my all-time best try, just TWO GUESSES!

WordPlay.com
Score: 93 2/6

⬜🟨🟨🟨⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Play the game:
https://wordplay.com/shr/655433742

Wordle does not 'grade' each puzzle, but it does maintain the number of days you have found the answer in six or fewer guesses; I am up to Twenty-Two Days in-a-row now! And yet today's puzzle was slightly more difficult; I still like to use crazy starting words that often yield me NOTHING:

Wordle 366 5/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨🟨⬛
🟨🟨⬛⬛🟩
🟨🟩⬛🟨🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Eolus619 says: JQT …for me/us the toughest part of Wordle is when multiple first letters can fit the same last four …taint. saint, paint, faint …sometimes I/we run out of guesses
JQT says: There are no five-letter words with 'FPT' in any order, but guessing 'H' can often 'suss out' if a 'PH' or 'TH' occurs. Words with 'F' usually have two vowels except 'DRAFT/DRIFT/AWFUL' (those might all be good puzzle words).
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:06 AM
Win or lose on the first deal. Lead the Jack?
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:53 AM
All of those pairs look like top five possibilities for opponent. Ras what are the chances that 7-8 goes only four to five points? dec
mfetchCT425
1400 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:01 AM
I’m keeping this hand intact. Other more defensive tosses just destroy our hand potential too much today IMO. Lots of cut opportunities for 9 through 13 points.
scottcrib
1637 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 4:09 AM
I...just...can't...do...it.
Sally3 says: Thanks for making me laugh :)
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Monday 4:22 AM
Depends who I am playing. This occasion I am chicken.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:45 AM
Choosing offense as first n/d, 7-8 has to go even though it scores a mighty big crib on average (6.671) on the other side of the board. Considered only 7-8 and 8-J as discards. Tossing 7-8 has the edge by more than half point because of the high potential hand score. If someplace else on the board, having a positional advantage, choosing defense to include the pegging, discarding 8-J has the edge by a whisker.
Ras2829 says: N/d got past the first hurdle - didn't cut 6-7-8-9. Since choosing offense, lead a Jack with a blush and take pegs as offered.
wasa says: ... and this is why I am a bad pegger. 100% of the time I would lead the 3 from the 2-3 combo so I could get my 15-2 after opponent plays a T-K on my 3. Guess I fall in to the lead from a 4-A or 2-3 combo group of people. So, why do I lead a J? When opponent plays a 5, do I respond with a 2 or another J where they then play their 6 for 31-2?
MiketheExpert says: Personally, I'd play the deuce next if dealer 15's my opening J lead, rather than the all too common J-5-J-6 to complete the 4-0 sweep (with at least one more pegging pt to come for dealer.) Much better chance to score a go with the 3 next, and who knows...maybe the other J could come into play for another score on the next round, though it is most likely as a hinderance (I usually might give up another run of 3, so hopefully I can limit the dealer to only his 1 remaining peg if so)
Ras2829 says: Hi wasa. Choice of strategy determines the lead. If defense to include the pegging, the trey or four from the small cards is correct. In a defense strategy n/d is satisfied with two points for scoring a 15-2. If choosing offense, n/d is going after runs later in the pegging sequence or enticing dealer to pair the Jack from hands such as 9-10-10-J, J-J-Q-K, or similar. Important to be flexible enough to accommodate the changes those differing strategies would suggest. Strategy choice should determine cards retained, those discarded, lead, and subsequent cards played in pegging sequences. Admittedly sometimes, the plan will not produce the intended results. Occasionally the results will "backfire" immensely. That in no way should deter one from engaging in the same strategy in similar circumstances another time. Overtime, you will improve your winning percentage by consistent strategy choices. Offer this as proof that it works. Have averaged 261 points in GR play over 32 official seasons. This season my batting average was .611 over 36 official nine-game tournaments. Am not looking for any kudos - it works, and the results demonstrate that. The other great advantage to adherence to strategy, it eliminates poorly founded assumptions, pet approaches, and the "riverboat gambler" syndrome applied to such a wonderfully complex game. There's so much to learn regarding this game. Have played this game for 81 years and I'm still thumbing through the Table of Contents. One lifetime is not enough to learn this amazing game, though it can be a most rewarding journey.
MiketheExpert says: Exactly as Ras mentioned, choice of strategy determines the next I'd make, which could mean different things at any board position, and sometimes it even changes from CARD to CARD!...So would it be correct to play the deuce or J next after dealer 15's your opening lead? The answer for me is it depends on the situation and your need! As an example, after giving up an opening 15, I'm evaluating the situation given my hand, my throw into opponent's crib (7 8), and likely outcomes. I'm not so keen now on the possibility of giving up many pegging pts without scoring (even on deal one), so I am downshifting DURING the course of pegging, and would be satisfied with scoring my go if it only meant limiting dealer to one more peg. Ras and others may disagree (as continuing with the J maintains more offense in the sense that you could trap a small card, (3 or 4), and potentially score 2 or even 4 here!) And, in some situations, this in fact may be required..Hence, I'm sure some of this just comes down to differences in people's personal playing styles, and acceptance or aversion of associated risk.) There is truly so many variables and unique situations, that the possibilities are endless!
MiketheExpert says: Playing the less aggressive pegging style could "backfire" as well ---- Take this potential scenario...You open with J, and the continuance is this....J-5-2-6-?? You are now left with (3-J) in hand, and guess what...we are forced to play the 3. J(10)-5(15)-2(17)-6(23)-3(26)..leaving the door open to giving up a 4(30) for run of 5 and go! And what is worse..he has shown (4-5-6) with a 10 cut card for a minimum 7-pt hand with 1 unknown card remaining! Along with a (7 8) in the crib...Giving up 4 pts by playing the J now seems to pale in comparison :)....In fact, I think I may have just talked myself into playing the J next after all!!
Fender Bass
373 votes

Joined: July 2021
 
 
 
Monday 5:00 AM
I'm the lone ranger today.
mrob2199
1436 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:42 AM
Nice thinker Dan-gotta risk the 78 or we completely destroy any hand potential
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 5:59 AM
It's a new day. fresh start, and only good opportunites ahead....that is until we get dealt a hand like this...this type of hand seems all too familiar NOT when you get the first deal, but as FHP...In fact, this very same distribution seems to be firmly implanted in my memory banks, as one I believe I've seen more than my fair share. As first hand, it's torpedoes away, and toss the unfortunate ( 7 8). Might think differently if changed one of those J's into a Q or K, but here the alternative tosses don't improve the situation any more in leaving us with a dud of a hand. I might vary up the opening lead as well with this one...Today I think I'll try from the pair of J's and hope for something direct after this crib throw.
MiketheExpert says: Btw, if did not see my 2nd question and reply on my post yesterday --- I would also triple the 6 after getting this cut and a 16-pt hand.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 6:03 AM
More A,2,3,4,5 or X cuts than there are 6,7,8 or 9 cuts. Still a reluctant 7-8 discard though.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 6:21 AM
On CHOD I toss the 7-8. If it was a real game, I'd probably toss the 8-J as giving up a 24 point crib on the first hand is a bad thing.
Eolus619
1342 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Monday 6:36 AM
Very appropriate a Jazz puzzle shows up today after his successs in Las Vegas this past weekend. He made two mains and finished second in one of them. Way to go Dan. As to this puzzle, Ras has pointed out that 3 of 10 cribbage games are lost on the first hand. With 9-10 hands left in the game, I chose not to help that statistic with a 7-8 discard. Tossing the 8-J and getting cut help from 11/13 ranks. I also accept the fact that Colvert is wagging his finger at me this AM.

joekayak says: 12/13 ranks. Only a 9 doesn't help
Sally3
303 votes

Joined: October 2021
 
 
 
Monday 6:42 AM
Hearing your coaching in my head, and Joy's as well
fentesk
1203 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Monday 7:26 AM
Offense as first pone means sending the dangerous 7-8 to dealer.

It wasn't too hard to convince myself to do this here where I don't have ~10 deals to live with my choice, but in an actual game, I imagine I would be far more hesitant.
Duby86
223 votes

Joined: May 2022
 
 
 
Monday 8:31 AM
It was difficult to give up 2points and an open end but it worked out !
winesteward48
835 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 8:36 AM
I just could not destroy this hand out of fear of a big crib.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
Monday 8:38 AM
If the facecards were not a pair or adjoining I might not throw the 78. But with a possible 12 or 13 hand I will risk it.
Eolus619 says: congrats on Las Vegas results Dan …
Ras2829 says: Hi Jazzselke: Glad to hear of your successes in Vegas and sorry to miss you in Reno this weekend. Good puzzle as well!
Jazzselke says: Thanks all!
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:18 PM
I think we must look at 2-3-J-J (7-8), 2-3-8-J (7-JH) and 2-3-7-J (8-JD):

2-3-J-J: 6pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = -1½pts

2-3-8-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.68) = -2½pts

2-3-7-J: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = -2½pts

Potential:

2-3-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts. Plus 22 heart and diamond cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 22/46 = 0.48pt.

2-3-8-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 777, 888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 5/6/7pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-3-7-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts. Plus 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense to try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-7-J and 2-3-8-J will peg better than 2-3-J-J.

Summary:

2-3-J-J has the best starting value by 1pt. and it has an extra ¼pt potential for the two Jacks. However 2-3-7-J has the best number of cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 5-8pts which is a big increase over 2pts. 2-3-J-J has 20 cuts for 9-12pts. Although we're playing Offense and 2-3-J-J has the best maximum I think I'll go with the better potential of 2-3-7-JH. So I'll throw 8-JD.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:56 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-J-J____8.91+1.30+(-7.47)=2.74____26.8____21.0
2-3-8-JD___4.89+1.63+(-4.46)=2.06____19.5____19.8
2-3-7-JH___4.89+1.50+(-4.39)=2.00____19.8____20.4

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-J-J_______44.4____54.7
2-3-8-JD______36.8____53.2
2-3-7-JH______36.4____52.7

2-3-J-J is best for expected averages by 0.68pt. and is considerably best for Win %s. It is, however, very much worse for Loss %s because of the risk of the 7-8. Even so I'll select the 7-8 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead a J and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Pts.
J____________________1.50
3____________________1.18
2____________________0.96
farleysma
318 votes

Joined: March 2022
 
 
 
Monday 5:17 PM
Usually I tend to play more defensively but I’m not willing to break up the pair of jacks. 7-8 to the crib, and hope for the best - with luck it’ll only be a 2-point crib. Without luck, hey, they’ve got a great crib and you have the whole game to catch up.