August 3, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by James500
88-95*  ?
35%
21%
17%
10%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Total votes: 268
JQT
3542 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:02 AM
Let's see where James500 places us today: Trailing by Seven Holes as Pone on the "sad" end of Third Street, while the Dealer sits at Hole 95, ready to beat us into oblivion. Just tell us, James500: Are you trying to start another American Revolution?

Do we have any chance of salvaging this game? Help will have to come in the form of "awful cards" to our Opponent! Let's hope that it happens. At least there is no risk of getting SKUNKED.

Meanwhile, we have either Six Points with Keep (6 6 9 T) and Toss (T T), or also Six Points via the potential Triple RUN after Keep (9 T T T) and Toss (6 6). It seems to be: "Which PAIR should we 'fork-over' to our Opponent?"

Or, we could also Keep (6 9 T T) and Toss (6 T) and attempt to use DEFENSE as a way to get through this mess. It's just a shame that two of those Ten Cards were not Diamond Suited (small laughter).

We also have that very weird idea of retaining Two PAIRS (after all, in North America, PEARS are now coming into season!) and this means Keep (6 6 T T) and Toss (9 T), but I am often loath to throw "Touching Cards" in a Defensive Attempt.

We might savor the Bartlett (green) variety, or the very firm, sumptuous, and crunchy Bosc (brown) variant, or even the sweet Anjou (which, like New Mexico Chiles, come in green or red). Wait, what is this description about PEARS doing is a Cribbage Discarding Puzzle? I'm so sorry!

Some might surmise that things are so bad here in CribTown, that Toss (6 6) is worth a shot. Others will say that the only way to have any chance in such a tortured Relative Position is to Toss (6 T), and attempt to 'put on the brakes.'

In spite of our awful predicament today, we do have to contemplate DEFENSE, and I'm thinking that Toss (T T) might be our best path forward. Toss (6 T) really doesn't "solve" the dire nature of our dilemma, and if a 5 Card Cut occurs, we are probably up James500 Crick without a flippin' paddle.

Let's do as James500 often does and "think outside the box" and Toss (T T) today, and see what misery doth happen. And you thought that this would be all about PEARS: shame on you!

After the 4 Card Cut, we demand a re-cut! Actually, we still have Six Points, and we might have only given away a Crib of Two Points, so it's not yet time for total despair. Let's lead a 6 Card from our PAIR and think of the smell of finely-ripened summer PEACHES.

Did you ever try just-ripe, Red Haven Freestone Peaches, thinly sliced, and served over cold, Perry's Vanilla-Bean Ice Cream? (If you cannot find Perry's, the Wegmans Brand is also made by Perry's in disguise in nearby Akron, New York.)

It's important to always serve crystal-clean, sparkling water on ice with any ice cream dish, and you might wish to also pair the dessert dish with some French-Press Espresso, or something similar that suits your own taste or fancy. It won't help you WIN those difficult Cribbage Endgames, but it sure improves the sad taste of losing. 🍐 🍦 🍑
Eolus619 says: We live on the western slope of Colorado during the summer. The peach orchards are located in a town named Palisades near Grand Junction. Annually, a volunteer makes the 3.5 hour one way drive to the orchards…100s of dollars of cash in hand ..to pick up tens of crates for tens of neighbors. …upon return the immediate consumption is in pies, cobblers and dishes with ice cream. But a great many find their way into the timeless mason jar to become canned preserves. There are few food “treats” more satisfying than to open a jar on Feb. 1 , with outside temperatures hovering near zero …and have a serving of peaches.
JQT says: During my somewhat limited travels throughout my sixty-four years, the Western Slope of Colorado is one of the nicest places I've ever been. We used to visit my former wife's half-sister and what is now her former husband (I call him my "Brother In-or-Out-of-Law!) in Glenwood Springs, usually once a year at either Thanksgiving or Christmastime. Some years, our respective parents would come, and I would make the drive to Aspen or Grand Junction to pick up or drop off some family, and since we drove in from either New Mexico or Idaho (via Utah), we saw a bit of the surrounding area, and we passed right through Palisade dozens of times! We even thought of moving to this area, and what appealed to me are the numerous trout streams and, unlike the Eastern Slope, the Western Slope of Colorado has much more sunshine in the winter and relatively more rainfall in the summer. Her sister had moved there in the mid-1970s, and their three children now have many kids of their own, and although many of them live north of Seattle where my own son resides, a few, including her sister, still live in the same home in Glenwood Springs, which was well over one hundred years old when we first visited there in 1979! Like this area, lots of fruit is grown in that area, but we had always visited during the ski season: I believe I got an all-day lift ticket at Aspen for under $20 the one time we skied there! My aforementioned Bro-in-Law taught third and fourth grade in Carbondale for over thirty years. These days, I try to find at least one perfect specimen of peaches each summer at the farmer's market, and then get a bunch for my neighbors. And it's great just having a small bushel of perfect peaches in the car, and handing them out one- or two-at-a-time to various people during the day's travels.
Goatman
2209 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:02 AM
I need to get down the board. However I don’t want the dealer moving either. I want to slow the dealer down so it’s defense for me.
Gougie00
5097 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:16 AM
I cannot afford to give the dealer any points. I'll toss 6-10 and hope that thwarts his progress. Lead the 10? I don't want to peg.
dec
5721 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:43 AM
Defense. Six lead. Never give in. dec
mrob2199
1028 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:44 AM
Nice puzzle James-with the dealer already at 95 we have to sacrifice a couple points here to slow his progress to 121-it’s always a bit easier to make up a few points on offense on 4th street when we need to than hinder the opponents progress when he gets near the 110 hole-lead the 6 and hopefully keep the pegging to a minimum here
scottcrib
1011 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:48 AM
Defense from me today. Live to play another hand.
Samgash33
127 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:34 AM
Defense!
Jazzselke
2141 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:59 AM
Would like to play our position first here, but our opponent also needs to be stopped as well. This is the type of scenario that I believe is the most difficult - so a great puzzle and I will be interested at the end of the day to review all responses.
Ras2829
4548 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:17 AM
Based on scant empirical evidence, discarding 6-10 and 10-10 are within a few hundredths of a point the same in combined value (-pegs, =had score, - crib score). RAS has opted for the 6-10 because of the much lower crib average with 6-10 at 4.224 and 10-10 at 6.187. Will lead the 6D take any pegs that appear reasonably safe. Got to focus on the tow things over which n/d has some control (discard and the pegging). At hole 95 dealer can have a 12-point hand, 0-2 in crib, and the guaranteed peg, and still reach 108-110. That's the plan on which to improve n/d chances to win this game.
Ras2829 says: Sorry "=had" should be "+hand".
wasa
2425 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:20 AM
Full defence
james500
3308 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:25 AM
I'm very grateful for the kind words that have been written this morning.

I'll risk handing over T-T, (in mitigation, another 10 and a 9 are accounted for). This leaves me a hand that stands a fair chance of getting my front peg to a good position from which to begin the next hand. I just need to play defensively and hope that the Fates are against my opponent.
Eolus619 says: Certainly trying to solve this very challenging puzzle does not equal Euro Cup stress..but we may need a Chloe Kelly/ Bobby Zamora moment at the end…well and truly done today James500. .
james500 says: Hi Bruce, hope you're well. I must admit that I didn't get the, (I would say, "obscure"), Bobby Zamora reference initially, but a quick YouTube search has filled me in. https://youtu.be/7zI8zvhQ4Jc I am unashamedly biased here, but I much prefer this one: https://youtu.be/6TnKvlQ2h7s
Eolus619 says: James500….now THAT is a massive turn around of events ..whew btw..i only mention Zamora because the last time Chloe was in Wembley Zamora scored THE goal that got Q R promoted …and just before she took the field for the Euro game she told her family she was going to have a Zamora moment today…
Eolus619 says: i believe that should be QPR promoted
Eolus619
729 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:49 AM
dec & Jazz frequently remind us to never give up..which today is a good thing to remind us to do. 88-95*..98…111…so i will attempt to extend the game by playing defense this hand. Even after JQT’s eloquent and enticing discussion about peaches & Pears I am only convinced to eat them. today. If my hand arrangement and board position allows, I try to only toss paired Qs & Ks across the board. So, today it is the 6-10 & try to make this a game two more hands after this one.

http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm
Eolus619 says: one other observation about cut help..keep 6-6-9-10 does allow for several point gainers over 6-9 -10-10..a trey adds two and another six adds +4..while a ten for 6-9-10-10 adds the +4.
MiketheExpert
504 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:59 AM
This decision is basically forced, in my opinion we can just not afford to throw a pair or even (6 9) into the opponent's crib. Tons of negative delta with the defensive (6 10) crib throw. Unfortunately we did not get a good cut with the 4, but if the dealer has thrown a 5 in his crib, he now has a minimum of 7 points here instead of a known 12 by tossing (6 6) or a likely monster with the (10 10) crib throw (little consolation, I know). Our only chance now is stifling defense, and to hope we can perform above average ourselves and put us into a position to count out as pone once again 2 hands from now.
MiketheExpert says: Because I cannot even afford to give up a 15-2 (and I am hoping his 5 is in the hand instead of the crib), because the crib still has a chance for 0-2 pts, my choice of lead here is the 6D. I'll try to fish that 5 out for minimal damage (i.e. just a go). And you never know...if he does have that case 10, I could get lucky and trap it for a badly needed 6 pts!
mfetchCT425
1149 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:17 AM
Will play my position first today although completely see the logic of 6-10. W
mfetchCT425 says: Can ignore the extra “W”. Traveling on vacation and doing this on the road, lol.
Sally3 says: Enjoy~
Sally3
254 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:25 AM
yay! I got it right. Am getting rid of the go big or go home" approach thanks to all of you.
cwed
1260 votes

Joined: October 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:34 AM
I don't feel I can afford to hold only four points, so if I'm gonna throw dangerously, I'm gonna hold the hand that gives me the best potential. Ergo: toss 6-6. I'm holding one 9 that goes with the 6s. After that cut, now I hope the dealer didn't toss 5-5.
winesteward48
275 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:10 AM
I am going to try to prevent points in the crib. If we add up the choices of 6-9-10-10 without regard to suit it seems the most popular.
JCM
885 votes

Joined: April 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 10:53 AM
I tossed 6-6, keeping 9TTT, in hopes of making the triple run. Not defensive, I know - but seemed a necessary risk to take, despite the board position.

Maybe I only give Opp a 2 or 4 point crib, and I get 15. If the result is the other way round, I was likely to lose anyway, at 88-95*.

Interested in all the comments - this may be learning day for me.



Eolus619 says: hello JCM…good to know what potential damage tossing pairs across the board might do…Qs & Ks are best for least damage http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm
Eolus619 says: hello JCM…good to know what potential damage tossing pairs across the board might do…Qs & Ks are best for least damage http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm
JCM says: So, Keep 9TTT is in fact best for win %, but it is worst for loss % because of discarding a pair, and so is rejected. Am still unsure, though, when 9TTT would become the best overall keep. Any advice from anyone? Thanks!
JCM says: So, Keep 9TTT is in fact best for win %, but it is worst for loss % because of discarding a pair, and so is rejected. Am still unsure, though, when 9TTT would become the best overall keep. Any advice from anyone? Thanks!
JRCeagle78
1054 votes

Joined: June 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:26 PM
Since I do not have enough points to peg out, I'll have to slow the dealer down as best I can. This hand is a lousy pegging hand no matter which way you keep it. DEFENSE.
Coeurdelion
4997 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 1:21 PM
I think there are 3 likely choices here - 6-6-9-10 (10-10), 9-10-10-10 (6-6) and 6H-9-10-10 (6D-10):

6-6-9-10: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 6.08) = +¼pt

9-10-10-10: 6pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = -¾pt

6H-9-10-10: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -¼pt

Potential:

6-6-9-10: Improves with 3333, 5555, 66, 8888, 999. 10, JJJJ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 9/12pts with 66, 8888, 999, JJJJ = 13 cuts.

9-10-10-10: Improves with 5555, 66, 8888, 999, 10, JJJJ = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 12/15pts with 5555, 8888, 10, JJJJ = 13 cuts.

6H-9-10-10: Improves with 5555, 66, 8888, 999, 10, JJJJ = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 8/10pts with all cuts.

Position:

Opponent is virtually at 4th street positional hole while we're behind on the board and well behind in position so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 6-6-9-10 may have a slight edge.

Summary:

6-6-9-10 is best for starting value by ½pt over 6H-9-10-10 and it has the most cuts for improvement and it has 13 cuts for 9/12pts although 9-10-10-10 has 13 cuts for 12/15pts and 6-9-10-10 has 18 cuts for 8/10pts. Even so I'll throw a 10-10.
HalscribCLX
4724 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 1:33 PM
At 88-95* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense____Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
6H-9-10-10__5.91+(-2.91)+(-3.91)=(-0.91)___0.0____3.9
6-6-9-10____7.57+(-2.63)+(-5.86)=(-0.92)___0.0____4.7
9-10-10-10__8.43+(-3.11)+(-6.69)=(-1.37)___0.0____5.8

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
6H-9-10-10_____1.7____35.8
6-6-9-10_______4.4____46.6
9-10-10-10_____6.6____51.0

6H-9-10-10 is very slightly best for expected averages by 0.01pt. and although it is not best for Win %s it is very much lowest for Loss %s because of the safer 6D-10 so I'll select this to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead______________Net Pegging Pts________Loss %
6_____________________(-1.17)_____________0.6
10____________________(-1.21)_____________0.6
9_____________________(-1.43)_____________0.5

Although the 6 lead is best for Net Pegging Points the 9 lead is slightly lower for Loss %s.