Wednesday 3:02 AM

Let's see where James500 places us today: Trailing by Seven Holes as Pone on the "sad" end of Third Street, while the Dealer sits at Hole 95, ready to beat us into oblivion. Just tell us, James500: Are you trying to start another American Revolution?

Do we have any chance of salvaging this game? Help will have to come in the form of "awful cards" to our Opponent! Let's hope that it happens. At least there is no risk of getting SKUNKED.

Meanwhile, we have either Six Points with Keep (6 6 9 T) and Toss (T T), or also Six Points via the potential Triple RUN after Keep (9 T T T) and Toss (6 6). It seems to be: "Which PAIR should we 'fork-over' to our Opponent?"

Or, we could also Keep (6 9 T T) and Toss (6 T) and attempt to use DEFENSE as a way to get through this mess. It's just a shame that two of those Ten Cards were not Diamond Suited (small laughter).

We also have that very weird idea of retaining Two PAIRS (after all, in North America, PEARS are now coming into season!) and this means Keep (6 6 T T) and Toss (9 T), but I am often loath to throw "Touching Cards" in a Defensive Attempt.

We might savor the Bartlett (green) variety, or the very firm, sumptuous, and crunchy Bosc (brown) variant, or even the sweet Anjou (which, like New Mexico Chiles, come in green or red). Wait, what is this description about PEARS doing is a Cribbage Discarding Puzzle? I'm so sorry!

Some might surmise that things are so bad here in CribTown, that Toss (6 6) is worth a shot. Others will say that the only way to have any chance in such a tortured Relative Position is to Toss (6 T), and attempt to 'put on the brakes.'

In spite of our awful predicament today, we do have to contemplate DEFENSE, and I'm thinking that Toss (T T) might be our best path forward. Toss (6 T) really doesn't "solve" the dire nature of our dilemma, and if a 5 Card Cut occurs, we are probably up James500 Crick without a flippin' paddle.

Let's do as James500 often does and "think outside the box" and Toss (T T) today, and see what misery doth happen. And you thought that this would be all about PEARS: shame on you!

After the 4 Card Cut, we demand a re-cut! Actually, we still have Six Points, and we might have only given away a Crib of Two Points, so it's not yet time for total despair. Let's lead a 6 Card from our PAIR and think of the smell of finely-ripened summer PEACHES.

Did you ever try just-ripe, Red Haven Freestone Peaches, thinly sliced, and served over cold, Perry's Vanilla-Bean Ice Cream? (If you cannot find Perry's, the Wegmans Brand is also made by Perry's in disguise in nearby Akron, New York.)

It's important to always serve crystal-clean, sparkling water on ice with any ice cream dish, and you might wish to also pair the dessert dish with some French-Press Espresso, or something similar that suits your own taste or fancy. It won't help you WIN those difficult Cribbage Endgames, but it sure improves the sad taste of losing. 🍐 🍦 🍑

   

Wednesday 3:02 AM

I need to get down the board. However I don’t want the dealer moving either. I want to slow the dealer down so it’s defense for me.

   

Wednesday 3:16 AM

I cannot afford to give the dealer any points. I'll toss 6-10 and hope that thwarts his progress. Lead the 10? I don't want to peg.

   

Wednesday 3:43 AM

Defense. Six lead. Never give in. dec

   

Wednesday 3:44 AM

Nice puzzle James-with the dealer already at 95 we have to sacrifice a couple points here to slow his progress to 121-it’s always a bit easier to make up a few points on offense on 4th street when we need to than hinder the opponents progress when he gets near the 110 hole-lead the 6 and hopefully keep the pegging to a minimum here

   

Wednesday 3:48 AM

Defense from me today. Live to play another hand.

   

Wednesday 4:34 AM

Defense!

   

Wednesday 4:59 AM

Would like to play our position first here, but our opponent also needs to be stopped as well. This is the type of scenario that I believe is the most difficult - so a great puzzle and I will be interested at the end of the day to review all responses.

   

Wednesday 5:17 AM

Based on scant empirical evidence, discarding 6-10 and 10-10 are within a few hundredths of a point the same in combined value (-pegs, =had score, - crib score). RAS has opted for the 6-10 because of the much lower crib average with 6-10 at 4.224 and 10-10 at 6.187. Will lead the 6D take any pegs that appear reasonably safe. Got to focus on the tow things over which n/d has some control (discard and the pegging). At hole 95 dealer can have a 12-point hand, 0-2 in crib, and the guaranteed peg, and still reach 108-110. That's the plan on which to improve n/d chances to win this game.

   

Wednesday 5:20 AM

Full defence

   

Wednesday 5:25 AM

I'm very grateful for the kind words that have been written this morning.

I'll risk handing over T-T, (in mitigation, another 10 and a 9 are accounted for). This leaves me a hand that stands a fair chance of getting my front peg to a good position from which to begin the next hand. I just need to play defensively and hope that the Fates are against my opponent.

   

Wednesday 6:49 AM

dec & Jazz frequently remind us to never give up..which today is a good thing to remind us to do. 88-95*..98…111…so i will attempt to extend the game by playing defense this hand. Even after JQT’s eloquent and enticing discussion about peaches & Pears I am only convinced to eat them. today. If my hand arrangement and board position allows, I try to only toss paired Qs & Ks across the board. So, today it is the 6-10 & try to make this a game two more hands after this one.

http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm

   

Wednesday 6:59 AM

This decision is basically forced, in my opinion we can just not afford to throw a pair or even (6 9) into the opponent's crib. Tons of negative delta with the defensive (6 10) crib throw. Unfortunately we did not get a good cut with the 4, but if the dealer has thrown a 5 in his crib, he now has a minimum of 7 points here instead of a known 12 by tossing (6 6) or a likely monster with the (10 10) crib throw (little consolation, I know). Our only chance now is stifling defense, and to hope we can perform above average ourselves and put us into a position to count out as pone once again 2 hands from now.

   

Wednesday 7:17 AM

Will play my position first today although completely see the logic of 6-10. W

   

Wednesday 7:25 AM

yay! I got it right. Am getting rid of the go big or go home" approach thanks to all of you.

   

Wednesday 8:34 AM

I don't feel I can afford to hold only four points, so if I'm gonna throw dangerously, I'm gonna hold the hand that gives me the best potential. Ergo: toss 6-6. I'm holding one 9 that goes with the 6s. After that cut, now I hope the dealer didn't toss 5-5.

   

Wednesday 9:10 AM

I am going to try to prevent points in the crib. If we add up the choices of 6-9-10-10 without regard to suit it seems the most popular.

   

Wednesday 10:53 AM

I tossed 6-6, keeping 9TTT, in hopes of making the triple run. Not defensive, I know - but seemed a necessary risk to take, despite the board position.

Maybe I only give Opp a 2 or 4 point crib, and I get 15. If the result is the other way round, I was likely to lose anyway, at 88-95*.

Interested in all the comments - this may be learning day for me.

   

Wednesday 12:26 PM

Since I do not have enough points to peg out, I'll have to slow the dealer down as best I can. This hand is a lousy pegging hand no matter which way you keep it. DEFENSE.

   

Wednesday 1:21 PM

I think there are 3 likely choices here - 6-6-9-10 (10-10), 9-10-10-10 (6-6) and 6H-9-10-10 (6D-10):

6-6-9-10: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 6.08) = +¼pt

9-10-10-10: 6pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = -¾pt

6H-9-10-10: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -¼pt

Potential:

6-6-9-10: Improves with 3333, 5555, 66, 8888, 999. 10, JJJJ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 9/12pts with 66, 8888, 999, JJJJ = 13 cuts.

9-10-10-10: Improves with 5555, 66, 8888, 999, 10, JJJJ = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 12/15pts with 5555, 8888, 10, JJJJ = 13 cuts.

6H-9-10-10: Improves with 5555, 66, 8888, 999, 10, JJJJ = 18 cuts = 18/46 = 39.1% up to 8/10pts with all cuts.

Position:

Opponent is virtually at 4th street positional hole while we're behind on the board and well behind in position so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 6-6-9-10 may have a slight edge.

Summary:

6-6-9-10 is best for starting value by ½pt over 6H-9-10-10 and it has the most cuts for improvement and it has 13 cuts for 9/12pts although 9-10-10-10 has 13 cuts for 12/15pts and 6-9-10-10 has 18 cuts for 8/10pts. Even so I'll throw a 10-10.

   

Wednesday 1:33 PM

At 88-95* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense____Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W1 %___W2 %
6H-9-10-10__5.91+(-2.91)+(-3.91)=(-0.91)___0.0____3.9
6-6-9-10____7.57+(-2.63)+(-5.86)=(-0.92)___0.0____4.7
9-10-10-10__8.43+(-3.11)+(-6.69)=(-1.37)___0.0____5.8

Defense_______L1 %___L2 %
6H-9-10-10_____1.7____35.8
6-6-9-10_______4.4____46.6
9-10-10-10_____6.6____51.0

6H-9-10-10 is very slightly best for expected averages by 0.01pt. and although it is not best for Win %s it is very much lowest for Loss %s because of the safer 6D-10 so I'll select this to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead______________Net Pegging Pts________Loss %
6_____________________(-1.17)_____________0.6
10____________________(-1.21)_____________0.6
9_____________________(-1.43)_____________0.5

Although the 6 lead is best for Net Pegging Points the 9 lead is slightly lower for Loss %s.