August 5, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0-0*  ?
38%
21%
17%
11%
5%
3%
0%
0%
Total votes: 257
Goatman
2209 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Friday 3:03 AM
Don’t like tossing 47 to dealer. So goes the 49. Want to keep “ALL” four points.
MiketheExpert says: I think I am also not terribly fond of (4 7), as any matching card is an automatic 4 pts, at the same time providing one of those valuable mid-connectors. But the increased run potential in remaining hand makes it very close, so I relegated it to 2nd place by a whisker.
JQT
3542 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:04 AM
We either WON the last game, or we LOST the cut, and so our Opponent gets to deal first. Them's the breaks!

I used to prefer "Loser Deals" instead of the traditional "Cut for Deal; Low Card Deals" that is perhaps as old as the game of Cribbage itself, although these days, Alternate Deal is gaining favor.

We should examine holding onto 5-X-X and if so, we must say good-bye to two-thirds of 4-7-9. Well, when you put it that way: it seems simple, but is it?

We could also Keep (4 5 7 T) and Toss (9 Q), one of the safest discards since the invention of Toss (6 K)! Can Toss (9 Q) be "worth" starting out with just Two Points instead of Four Points? It may.

I call Toss (7 9) in Cribbage "The Curse" on BOTH sides of the board, and this arrangement could be "Exhibit A"! For it often explodes 'over the board' and yet disappoints in our own Crib.

Of maybe more concern is possibly separating the 9-T "Touching" Cards, and this also applies to the 4-5 duo as well. Therefore, I believe our best option might be to Keep (5 9 T Q) and Toss (4 7).

It's tempting to risk "The Curse" and Toss (7 9), and without a doubt, many players will "swallow the poison" and live to brag about it, but I think I'll hedge and Toss (4 7).

Honestly, I just had that same discard yesterday on my weak iPad 'sparring' Opponent, and I kid you not: it only 'cost' me Twenty Points in the Enemy Crib! (My Opponent 'cornered the market' on 4 Cards in the Crib.) Wait!

After the 5 Card Cut, we have a Hand of Ten Points, and what's the worst thing that our Opponent could score in the Crib? (Homework) With a 5 Card "on deck," let's rattle our Opponent and lead a 5 Card! Or, if we don't feel so bold, we might lead the Ten "T" Card.

This Discard Decision and Cut Card illustrates a concept that I have dubbed "Five Card Insurance." When we are up against a Dealer, who stands to gain help from the Cut Card TWICE (once for the Hand, and once for the Crib), a 5 Card can often do the most damage to our Relative Score.

Retaining a Hand that does well in the event of a 5 Card Cut, and choosing a discard that does NOT appear too dangerous after a 5 Card Cut, is a good way to mitigate any possible damage and to "insure" that if the Dealer does get a good Hand Score, that we shall obtain a good Hand Score as well.

Unfortunately, this concept doesn't really help us decide between Toss (4 7) and Toss (7 9), as both seem to be about equally immune from a 5 Card Cut!
mrob2199
1028 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 3:14 AM
I’m not scared of the 7-9 toss -keeping the 4/5 together in our hand keeps us alive to cuts of an ace,3 or 6 to vastly improve without too much threat in aiding our discard-we also have the option of leading high or low now with either the 4 or Q
bbaer1
3125 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Friday 3:33 AM
With my all-out offense mindset I’ll toss the 7-9 (The Curse) and hope this doesn’t become a first-hand loss.
Gougie00
5097 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:43 AM
I could decide upon 4-9 or 7-9. Tossed 4-9 just incase the dealer tossed himself an 8. Even though a 5 was cut, I will probably behind next deal. Lead the 10?
james500
3308 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:50 AM
There's little synergy between an unsuited Queen and 7 to my opponent. By which I mean, they can't be part of the same 15/2 or run, and a flush is impossible.

Every cut bar a 7 helps me, (and I already know that one of them is out of circulation).

Any help that I do get from the cut is reasonably, (16/46), likely to be in the form of a run, since I'm holding two pairs of consecutively ranked cards.
dec
5721 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:59 AM
Already behind par with this hand I want to stay in the same ballpark. Queen led. de
scottcrib
1011 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Friday 4:04 AM
Wanted to keep both touchers, but that would only leave me with 2 points. Tossed 4-7 for some negative delta and kept the 9-10 touchers. Good cut.
cwed
1260 votes

Joined: October 2014

 
 
 
Friday 5:07 AM
I still get help from cutting a 3 or 6--without throwing the more dangerous 7-9. If I had started with eight or ten points, I wouldn't have hesitated to throw 7-9, but not when holding only four points.
jmudge
469 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Friday 6:30 AM
Blithely throwing the 47 this morning. Here's wishing everyone a relaxing weekend. Keep cool, stay groovy!
GT25Ump
125 votes

Joined: August 2016

 
 
 
Friday 6:34 AM
I voted with the majority here, but I don't scoff at anyone that went with the 4-5-10-Q, as that gives you a better card to lead off with (4), than my choice. I want to keep either the 9-10 together or the 4-5 together in an attempt to get a run going.
MiketheExpert
504 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:35 AM
Out of a bountiful of options, I like hedging with the (4 9) here and keeping 4 pts this way as first hand pone. Referring to a hand a few days back at 90-90*, Ras had stated he does not like throwing the "middle cards" (8 9), (7 9), (6 8), etc... while keeping only 4 pts, and would prefer the safety of a (9 K) or (9 Q), if it means only sacrificing 2 points. My take was that this was the imaginary "line" at which we could NOT afford to give away even 2 pts in order to ONLY keep 4, and although HAL etc. was in agreement with the former idea, the W/L %'s did seem to indicate that this was indeed one of those "borderline" decisions, and the margin was very close. Is first deal of the game one of those similar situations? Well, in this case, we could throw the discard (7 9), and keep a hand with better offensive pegging prospects in the (4 5 10 Q) than on the example that day (where I chose to throw (8 9) in order to keep (4 4 X X). From that point of view, the (7 9) seems like it could be a worthwhile risk the first hand of the game. However, if I can still start with 4 pts while not seriously impacting the offensive potential of my remaining keep and throwing a quite safer relative discard in the (4 9), this seems as slightly the best option even while using an offense strategy. In fact, I would place the remaining discards that I considered (4 7), (7 9), and (9 Q), ALL in a similar boat, and I could call it a 3-way tie for 2nd place here.....
wasa
2425 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 6:42 AM
JQT summarized things nicely. Keeping the 4-T-Q, so must toss two of 4-7-9. Not tossing 7-9 so it's either 4-7 or 4-9. The 7 requires the gap card 6 to work with my 5, while the 9-T combo is looking for an 8 or a J cut. So, by process of elimination I'm tossing 4-7.
Jazzselke
2141 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 6:46 AM
3 ways to hold 4 points, tough puzzle. 47, 36,and 39 often can be considered somewhat defensive throws because of their inherent negative delta. However, as recounted by JQT, all can become 20 or 24 points. But in most situations, depending on relative positions, I view them as defensive. Considering this is the first hand that will be my choice as I can only hold 4 points.
Eolus619
729 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 6:53 AM
The most frequent dealer discard to own crib is 7-8. I will take the chance that I could be paired in the crib with me discarding a seven which seems to be an acceptable defensive approach when compared to the potential of tossing 7-9.
jdc_wolfpack
194 votes

Joined: June 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:58 AM
Pitching 4-7 allows us to keep 4pts, the 9-T run potential, and still benefits from a 6 cut. First look was Q-9, but decided against it for the low potential it provided.
Duby86 says: agreed
Nelson
41 votes

Joined: June 2022

 
 
 
Friday 9:42 AM
All out offense and throwing caution to the wind with a middle-card discard. A,3,4,5,6,X all help my hand, but I have to admmit, I totally expected an 8 to be cut and the tears to flow.
Coeurdelion
4997 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 3:09 PM
I think it will be between 4-5-10-Q (7-9), 5-7-10-Q (4-9), 5-9-10-Q (4-7) and the Defensive 4-5-7-10 (9-Q):

4-5-10-Q: 4pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = -1¼pts

5-7-10-Q: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = -¾pt

5-9-10-Q: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.88) = -1pt

4-5-7-10: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 4.11) = -2pts

Potential:

4-5-10-Q: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAAA, 3333, 555, 6666, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 25 cuts.

5-7-10-Q: Improves with 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/9/10pts with 555, 6666, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 17 cuts.

5-9-10-Q: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with 555, 8888, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 17 cuts.

4-5-7-10: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 6/7/8pts with 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 101010 = 17 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is 18pts so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

4-5-7-10 should peg best but also 4-5-10-Q will peg well.

Summary:

5-7-10-Q has the best starting value by ¼pt over 5-9-10-Q and ½pt over 4-5-10-Q. 4-5-10-Q, 5-7-10-Q and 5-9-10-Q each have 32 cuts for improvement but 4-5-10-Q also has 25 cuts for 7-10pts. So I think 4-5-10-Q will catch up the ½pt therefore I'll throw the 7-9.
HalscribCLX
4724 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:12 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
4-5-10-Q___6.70+1.61+(-5.01)=3.30____23.8____22.5
5-9-10-Q___6.35+1.46+(-4.60)=3.21____22.8____22.1
5-7-10-Q___6.26+1.48+(-4.63)=3.11____22.4____21.7
4-5-9-10___5.17+1.74+(-4.16)=2.75____21.2____21.5
4-5-7-10___4.70+1.63+(-3.95)=2.38____20.5____20.6
5-7-9-10___4.83+1.78+(-4.36)=2.25____20.3____20.1

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
4-5-10-Q______38.2____51.5
5-9-10-Q______37.5____51.8
5-7-10-Q______37.5____52.2
4-5-9-10______36.4____51.9
4-5-7-10______36.8____52.7
5-7-9-10______37.5____53.3

4-5-10-Q is best for expected averages by 0.09pt. and is slightly best for Win %s. Although it is not lowest for Loss %s I'll still select 7-9 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the Q and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts.
Q_________________1.90
10________________1.75
4_________________1.17
5_________________1.03
winesteward48
275 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 4:11 PM
A small amount of poison is more palatable with a glass of wine.
Ras2829
4547 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 8:54 PM
Choosing offense to include the pegging as n/d of hand one, the decision becomes easy. HalscribCLX says it all for me this day. Discard 7-9, lead the Queen and take any pegs offered. Lots of substantive comments on this day from many sources. Thanks for participating so fully. Have a lovely weekend.
Ras2829 says: Think the Queen slightly better lead as J-Q is very frequent discard made by dealer. For that reason, the 10 spot is slightly more likely to be paired.