Saturday 3:09 AM

Doing a 2-3 to a K-K discard seems to me a more calculated discard here for higher values. Might be able to peg the pair of Kings also. de

   

Saturday 3:24 AM

Choosing offense to include the pegging 2-3-3-K has the edge by well over a point. Potential hand value and the increased pegging value of 2-3-3 far outweigh the larger crib produced by the 2-3 discard. Dealing at hole 41 (2nd street CPZ 43-47) will play on the lead and take any pegs offered.

   

Saturday 3:24 AM

I tossed KK and kept the potential for a 12 in my hand.

   

Saturday 3:47 AM

Don’t want to break up the strength of the 233 in my hand

   

Saturday 3:52 AM

No double run chance any more, but I'm hoping for good things in the crib.

   

Saturday 4:09 AM

We are the Dealer sitting Three Holes 'shy' of the Second Street Par Hole 44, and our Opponent only needs to score Seven Points to reach that same "target" by completion of this deal.

We have a few choices: Toss (K K), Toss (2 3), Toss (3 3), and Toss (3 K). I believe we can eliminate those last two ideas, and so it's now a matter of choosing between Toss (K K) and Toss (2 3).

This puzzle shows us a very good example of how a player's style can be one that emphasizes Hand Score when we Toss (K K), or one that seeks to boost the Crib after Toss (2 3). However, our real goal in Cribbage is not to maximize either of these in isolation, but instead to maximize our overall total and thus our Win Rate.

Keep (2 3 3 K) will definitely peg better, but today we should probably be asking, "How MUCH better?" That's because a hand with a high PAIR or PAIRS Royal such as Keep (3 K K K) will usually peg a few points very reliably as well, as long as we can hold a PAIR until the end of the pegging.

Toss (2 3) gives us much more potential for GROWTH in our Crib, so when other things look somewhat equal, I am inclined to Toss (2 3). But what purpose will this stronger Crib serve if we get 'pummeled' during the pegging?

Toss (2 3) aims for a better Crib, but it also risks a drubbing during the pegging, and we cannot afford such an occurrence at this Relative Score.

Therefore, let's Toss (K K) today, and retain the King of Spades in our Hand, since it is the only King that "matches" suit with any of our Deuces or Treys.

After the Queen Cut, we have Ten Points in our Hand, with prospects for an average (and perhaps exciting) Crib.

If Pone has a hand construction of mostly higher-ranking cards alongside one or two "Small" Cards, if we unload our Lone King early, we will often be able to peg several holes toward the end of the pegging.

If we do unload our King first, try to follow it up with the Trey of Spades, in order to fake a flush during the pegging. This costs us nothing if we are going to play a Trey anyway, and it may fool our Opponent.

   

Saturday 4:48 AM

Keeping the 3 and King of spaces to take a flush for a couple of seconds

   

Saturday 5:14 AM

Which eight points do you want to know about? 2-3 is a powerhouse in the crib, but I don't want to lose out on the much better hand potential and pegging ability that tossing K-K allows. Not a bad cut at all.

   

Saturday 6:18 AM

Ditto. Even if it was their crib. More cuts available, and better pegging cards.

   

Saturday 6:55 AM

Dealer needs offense to arrive at par hole 70 first. The 2-3 discard catches my eye first…. however, the K-K-K doesn’t peg so well imo. Only a six and eight cut miss the keep.

   

Saturday 7:28 AM

Hmmm. Didn't like the K-K to my crib so figured I can't go wrong with a 2-3. Based on others, 2-3 is wrong here. Oh well.

   

Saturday 10:24 AM

It feels like our collective heads were sharing the same thoughts. 2-3 or K-K to the crib. I felt K-K to the crib left the hand with more potential.

   

Saturday 10:28 AM

Went with the better hand potential. Quite a few cuts for 12.

   

Saturday 2:03 PM

I think it's a straight choice between 3S-K-K-K (2-3H) and 2-3-3-K (K-K):

3S-K-K-K: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

2-3-3-K: 6pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.58) = 10¾pts

Potential:

3S-K-K-K: Improves with 222, 33, 5555, K = 10 cuts = 10/46 = 21.7% up to 12pts with 222, 5555, K = 8 cuts.

2-3-3-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 7777, 9999 + 13xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444 + 13xXs = 26 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts short of 2nd street positional hole but Pone is 13pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 3-K-K-K will peg better.

Summary:

3S-K-K-K is better for starting value by 2pts but 2-3-3-K is very much better for cuts for improvement and has 26 cuts for 10/12pts. So I think it will more than catch up the 2pts therefore I'll throw a pair of Ks.

   

Saturday 2:13 PM

At 41*-37 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-3-3-K____9.39+ 0.96 +4.15=14.49____37.8____45.1
3S-K-K-K___7.13+(-0.74)+6.65=13.05____36.8____47.9

Optimal_______L6 %____L7 %
2-3-3-K________26.7____36.7
3S-K-K-K_______22.6____33.9

At 41*-37 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-3-3-K____9.39+ 0.96 +4.15=14.49____37.8____45.1
3S-K-K-K___7.13+(-0.74)+6.65=13.05____36.8____47.9

Optimal_______L6 %____L7 %
2-3-3-K________26.7____36.7
3S-K-K-K_______22.6____33.9

2-3-3-K is better for expected averages by 1.44pts 3S-K-K-K is slightly better for Win %s and it is appreciably lower for Loss %s. Even so as it is fairly early in the game and the difference in expected averages is considerable I'll select K-K to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Offense to the lead.