Friday 3:08 AM

Don’t like A3 nor 34 nor A4 to their crib to keep 3 points so it’s A 10 for me.

   

Friday 3:23 AM

Hi from Germany. Back to being able to post without "cheating" lol. I don't like any toss here, so trying this.

   

Friday 3:56 AM

Every cut is helpful to me.
3-9 is a bit of a risk, (only one card away from becoming 4 point), but the 4,8 and T in my hand deprive it of three cards that might help create a run.

   

Friday 4:01 AM

Bad hand, bad cut, bad prospects. Ugh. Lead the 4?

   

Friday 4:11 AM

Defense. Defense. Still could do eight with this hand. With the 26 par count on these next two hands lets keep them short. dec

   

Friday 4:15 AM

We are ahead by Three Holes as Pone as we straddle onto Third Street, and frankly, I'd rather be our Opponent in such a Relative Position, since having The Deal (and The Crib) is almost always worth more than Three Holes.

It's vitally important to note that we can only reach our target of the Third Street Par Hole 70 if we can score Eight Points by completion of this deal.

When sparring with my Chess students in my younger days, one exercise I employed was to allow the opposing player the option to "swap sides" of the board up to three times during a game, and thus I would risk getting crushed if I started out too strong.

Anyway, this puzzle reminded me of those days, when staying close to the Opponent was the goal and not merely an outcome. But of course, our goal should be to crush the opposition, so with this in mind, let's look at our cards.

RAS has given us a RUN and a few various and sundry Fifteens to choose from, but we cannot always have both money and good looks, as I often tell my enemies and my friends!

If we were being selfish, we would like to retain a "Magic Eleven" of 3-8 with the RUN and therefore Keep (3 8 9 T) and Toss (A 4) stares out at us. But perhaps now is not the time to be handing over cards that 'add up' to Five to our Opponent!

Actually, it does not look wise to throw any two Small Cards, and so perhaps we should rule out the RUN. We could also retain all of the Small Cards and Keep (A 3 4 8) and Toss (9 T), but the discard is still a bit risky.

Let's instead examine holding onto just those "Touching Cards."

Keep (3 4 8 9) and Toss (A T) looks hopeful, and about Twenty-Four Cuts (2222, 333, 444, 5555, 7777, 888, TTT) or half the remaining deck should boost such a hand and get us at least over 60% of our goal today, while the discard also enjoys a bit of Negative Delta.

This idea of Toss (A T) really seems to "fit" our dilemma today quite nicely! It not only meets the objective of being a "safe" discard, but it also gives us plenty of hope with a preponderance of Cut Cards.

After the prosaic Queen Cut, we feel resigned that we did the best we could, under dire circumstances. We'd now like to peg Six Holes, but realistically, we'll try to obtain a few! Let's lead the 9 Card, and look for a Trey Reply!

   

Friday 6:47 AM

At +2 to Dealer's -11, I'll choose offense and the run. 25 cuts offer improvement (5555, 6666, 7777, 888,999,101010, JJJJ). There are 9 cuts for the 8 points I am hoping for. Now after that terrible cut, do I lead the 4, hoping for a 9 response, or my 8, hoping for a 7 response? I don't know. You folks tell me.

   

Friday 7:41 AM

It is always a challenge to contribute something of value when some very knowledgeable & successful players have already posted. So…my $.02 today is a review of some helpful guidelines that apply to this puzzle. Ras has three decision points …board position, dealt hand & cuf card. I add a fourth….who deals first from 70+ is odds to win the game. Use all of these to make your decision. BTW..dealer has an 80% chance to earn at least 12 points. Play accordingly.

   

Friday 8:06 AM

Rough one Ras. As much as I want to keep that 3 card sequence, the discard options are too risky. Going defense even though there is a good chance I get burnt with the cut card.

   

Friday 8:48 AM

I went with the possible double run and did not want to put A-4 in the crib. If the cut is A,2,or 3 this helps me too. I am very worried about the 2-3 discard by the dealer, but, I tend to worry whenever it is not my crib.

   

Friday 9:40 AM

I would like to as close to 70 as possible, dealer is quite short of that mark. Leading the 4 from this hand is very dangerous if opponent plays an 8 or 9, do we pair or give up a possible run? Or lead the 10? Might decide based on the cut card if we improved or not.

   

Friday 11:24 AM

I had a very tough time with this one. There is no combo that makes me happy at this relative position. I think the best best is to keep the double-ended open run possibility (3 4 8 9) for hand improvement and discard (A 10), in favor of a discard such as (A 3) or (A 4) while keeping the run. Pegging prospects are not great with any of these 4-handed holding. We fail to get a cut card (Q) which is of any help. Let's lead the 3 and try and "find" some extra pegs, which will hopefully leave us only a few holes short of CPZ (69-73) and still hopefully plenty of time.