Thursday 3:20 AM

If we can get our Three Counts as Current Dealer and Next Non Dealer, we could more often than not be able to reach the Finish Line and WIN this game.

The problem, however, is that our Opponent only needs Ten Points in order to defeat us. Pone's average tally is Ten Points, but even if we defend well, we risk that our Opponent will go out during the pegging as the Next Dealer, when our Opponent will enjoy the Pegging Advantage.

This probably gives us two options: Either we must defend so well that Pone cannot get close enough to peg out as the Next Dealer, or; we must try to get a combined Twenty-One Points by completion of this deal.

Whether we try a Defensive Stand or make a rush for the Finish Line, we still have to retain a fairly good Hand. I often state that many players worry too much about scoring points in Dealer Endgame Battles, but this Relative Score requires that we keep moving!

It appears that we could either Keep (4 4 7 J) and Toss (5 J), or we could Keep (4 4 5 7) and Toss (J J), or we could Keep (5 7 J J) and Toss (4 4), or we might even Keep (4 4 J J) and Toss (5 7). The question appears to be what to do with our 5 Card and whether to split up the Jacks.

If we hold the 5 Card in our Hand with the two 4 Cards, we're seeking Cut Cards such as (3333, 6666); but if we place the 5 Card into our Crib, we should peg more safely, and we also would seek to obtain a larger Crib.

Alternately, if we Toss (4 4), we retain the most points in our Hand, and we might peg fairly defensively since we no longer have to worry about the 4-4-5 getting trapped. While I don't usually look to throw a PAIR into our Crib, the 4 Cards might "Catch an Ace" from the Cut Card or from Pone, and give us a good Crib.

The Keep (4 4 J J) and Toss (5 7) is a real "desperation" decision, because it almost depends upon a good Cut Card, either an Ace or a matching 4 Card or Jack. But this is a very clever idea, and it probably will peg the most defensively of any choice we make today.

I believe we can reduce our four ideas above down to two main choices: either Toss (4 4) or Toss (5 7), and I'm steering towards the former over the latter. While the 5 Card can be a dangerous pegging liability, it also gets us the most points if it's held alongside the two Jacks.

Let's Keep (5 7 J J) and Toss (4 4). Toss (5 7) would probably be my Second Choice, with Toss (5 J) rounding out the Top Three on the podium. Thus, I would place Toss (J J) quite a distance down the list of solutions, perhaps in Fourth Place.

After the King of Spades Cut, we now have Eight Points in our Hand, with prospects for an interesting Crib, and we must hope Pone gave us an Ace.

If Pone leads a Jack, we should probably play our 7 Card and try to dodge any possible ways that Pone might grab easy points. It's likely that we have less than a 25% chance of winning, and it really depends on the strength of Pone's Hand.

If things go poorly for Pone, we may end up in a similar place where Pone started today, around Hole 111, and it will be a great game WIN if we can then do what Pone fails to do during this deal!

   

Thursday 3:48 AM

Job #1 for me is to keep the opponent on the board. I’ll try to accomplish that by keeping a defensive “eleven” and putting two of the most trapped cards in cribbage into my crib. That they also happen to be the third-best toss you can give yourself is an added bonus.

   

Thursday 3:52 AM

Defensive eleven and hopefully some adjoining face cards thrown into our crib. dec

   

Thursday 4:02 AM

Not the cut i was hoping for.

   

Thursday 5:05 AM

We have conflicting interests here...In my opinion, I have to take a risk and keep a "dangerous" pegging hand with the (4 4 5 7). Pone is already too close to the exit (he has an even money chance of getting out on this hand even if we play the best defense possible), and we are still 21 points from the exit, so even if I can avoid him getting out on this hand, he will almost certainly be able to peg out on the next one if I don't. I might "play around" a little more if he was at hole 108-109, but I see no other option that going for the miracle cut (the 6), and hoping to count our hand+crib+pegging to get out on this hand. And we have to do all this at the same time while trying to prevent pone from pegging at all (hence the conflict of interest). The K cut gives us barely a fighting chance, as we are stuck with a 6-pt hand, but with our J's in the crib, we need something real good there. I have the most defensive response in mind to any lead. What do do if pone leads a 6? I'll have to falsely play "on" with the 5 next (having 2 fours myself), and figuring he may prefer to lead a 7/8 if he had these cards (especially the 7). If he has a five, I'm likely dead anyway by the time he counts his hand.

   

Thursday 5:51 AM

We have to assume the pone doesn't have enough. With that premise, what hold gives me the most points? Play off to the lead.

   

Thursday 7:09 AM

Dealer is not getting home this hand …so survive and advance to next hand which means one or zero pegs for Pone. Hold a keep that can peg defensively but has enough points to get me past 111. Also consider, do I have a keep that has a satisfactory reply to various Pone leads..I think this way I do.

   

Thursday 7:54 AM

I thought I'd be more alone today, but glad to see others tossed the 5-J as well. My number one goal is to not let opponent go out, so I need to minimize their pegs. Keeping the 4-4 is good, as harder for them to double me. I don't want my 5 to be trapped, so in the crib it goes. So, toss 5-7 or toss 5-J? The 7 works with the 4-4 and the J works with the 5 so toss 5-J and play OFF so I have a chance to win this game.

   

Thursday 8:24 AM

With pone 10 out and us 21 and potentially having three counts if we survive the pegging, I chose the most defensive hand I could find.

We will not be pegging 21 points here, so the first order of business for me is to get to the point I get to count. If dealer has 10+ in hand, it doesn't really matter (I suppose a case could be made to peg offensively for spread points, but I don't live in that world).

I still have two pairs in hand and a 5 in my crib. I could have discarded for more offense, but I'm choosing to do what I can to live to count another hand.

   

Thursday 8:50 AM

With pone at 111 my only concern is keeping his pegging points to as few as possible, hopefully none. If he has fewer than 10 in his hand, I'll be able to cruise right in.

   

Thursday 10:23 AM

Matters not whether defending or playing a BOLD strategy, 5-7-J-J is the way to go. Sorry, on average holding 4-4-5-7 will give up more pegs than 5-7-J-J. On an A-2-9 lead, would get rid of the lone 5, on a trey or four lead, play the 7, on a 5 lead, score 15-2 with Jack, on 6, 7, 8 leads play a Jack, on a X-lead dump the five for 15-2. RAS would take that 15-2 as believe the lone 5 poses greater danger if retained. Often the five will not be paired as n/d may be playing 2-3-10-J or similar, need pegs, and will lead from the large cards holding the small cards to peg a run or pick off pairs at end of pegging sequence. That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

   

Thursday 10:44 AM

Lots of great comments today. Thank you.

   

Thursday 1:11 PM

I think it's between 4-5-J-J (4D-7) and 4-4-5-7 (J-J):

4-5-J-J: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.72) = 10pts

4-4-5-7: 4pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 9¼pts

Potential:

4-5-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 9/10/11/12pts with AAAA, 3333, 555, 6666, JJ = 17 cuts. Plus 12 club and 12 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 2x12/46 = 0.52pt.

4-4-5-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 777, 8888 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/16pts with 3333, 44, 6666, 777 = 13 cuts.

Position:

Pone only needs 10pts to go out so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 4-4-5-7 will peg better with a pair and a magic eleven.

Summary:

4S-5-J-J is better for starting value by ¾pt but 4-4-5-7 has more cuts for improvement and has 13 cuts for 8-16pts compared to 17 cuts for 9-12pts with 4S-5-J-J. Also 4-4-5-7 should peg better so I'll throw the J-J.

   

Thursday 1:16 PM

At 100*-111 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
5-7-J-J____8.43+(-2.13)+5.43=11.73____12.3____29.0
4-4-5-7____7.43+(-1.98)+4.94=10.39____12.9____23.6
4-4-7-J____5.61+(-2.20)+6.77=10.18_____5.2____26.1
4S-5-J-J___8.83+(-2.26)+3.51=10.08_____4.3____23.9

Defense_______L1 %____L2 %
5-7-J-J________49.5____66.4
4-4-5-7________52.7____72.1
4-4-7-J________45.4____71.3
4S-5-J-J_______50.6____73.7

5-7-J-J is best for expected averages by 1.34pts and is considerably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 4-4 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Thursday 2:31 PM