Friday 3:24 AM

I would rather balk their crib then go for the ace or four cut on a 6-9 discard. It is close thou on these choices. Three lead. dec

Friday 3:55 AM

I think this hand is trying to bait me into picking the (6 9) discard, and I was reluctant to do it, but in the end I took the bait, and will see what will come of it. On the service it doesn't make sense to give up a 6-pt hold with negative delta for our (2 7) crib throw, in place of a 4-pt starting hold that throws 2 pts (6 9) into the opponent's crib. But at this board position, and with the guaranteed improvement of (2 3 3 7) and better pegging prospects, let's do this in our strongest effort to reach the next par hole. (3 3 6 9) only has 8/46 cuts for improvement of these 6 cards, and we are not likely to peg unless pone has similar matching cards...So let's play the odds, and if I'm wrong, so be it! :)

Friday 4:30 AM

Very likely to be too unambitious, but I'd like to try this on for size.

3-2-6 pegging plan,
Every cut is helpful,
9-3 when another 3 and a 6 are out of circulation, might not be too potent.

Friday 4:54 AM

With dealer very short of third street CPZ (69-73) and n/d needing nine points to enter that zone for next deal, it's offense to include the pegging. After seeing the starter card, knowing that n/d has 8 points, will lead a trey and take pegs as offered. Headed out of here for a few days - back cto CHOD on upcoming Tuesday. Our favored tropy trout fall excursion is off as the U. S. Forest Service has closed the forest because of raging wildfires and continuing extreme fire conditions. Many of the western wildfires have been burning for months and remain zero % contained. Some will burn until the snows of winter extinguish. So, we will have a couple of days only to fish in unfamiliar water. More later. This choice has the greater combined value (pegs, hand score, minus crib). Win/loss % will defer to HalscribCLX on that. The cribbot knows what those are in every hole on the board. RAS won't live long enough to figure that out.

Friday 5:17 AM

Don’t be afraid of 6-9 with dealer at 61. RAS has it right.

Friday 5:19 AM

I’m shooting for the maximum hand here to hopefully get into position.

Friday 5:35 AM

I want that 233 together. Will take the chance that the 67 won't toast me. Learned that 3369 is usually only a 6 hand.

Friday 6:42 AM

Ras submits another valuable lesson in board position. Pone needs to earn the average ten to have the deal first @ 70. Offense it is. I initially thought I would keep 3-3-6-9 but my pencil showed it gets cut help from only a 3,6,or 9…ouch. Keep 2-3-3-7 has only one loser cut ..a four & 2-2-3: has double run potential.

Friday 7:16 AM

Agree with most that the 233 has to stay together here-don’t love discarding the 67 here but the 9 hold gives us 2 or 4 more points than the 7 if we hit or 4 cut

Friday 7:28 AM

I saw the 2-3-3-7 but starting with 4 points and tossing 2 points didn't thrill me. Keeping 6 and tossing zero at 60-61* to me is the better choice. But, after reviewing RAS and Mike's comments, I'm probably wrong. Oh well.

Friday 8:10 AM

On offense this is the way to go. Ras has submitted this hand several times before. Check out Nov. 2, 2016. 3-3-6-9(2-7) on defense, 2-3-3-7(6-9) on offense.

Friday 12:47 PM

We need Ten Points as Pone to reach the Third Street Par Hole 70 by completion of this deal, but it appears we may come up 'short' regardless of what we do here.

I believe it's between Toss (2 7) and Toss (6 9) today, and I'll take the seemingly safer route and Toss (2 7). After the Queen Cut, we still have Six Points; let's lead the 6 Card, so we can parry if scored upon.

Friday 1:15 PM

I'll examine 2-3-3-7 (6-9), 2-3-3-9 (6-7) and 3-3-6-9 (2-7):

2-3-3-7: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

2-3-3-9: 4pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = -2pts

3-3-6-9: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = +1pt

Potential:

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xxs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 16xXs = 36 cuts.

2-3-3-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 666, 777, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAAA, 33, 4444, 999 + 16xxs = 29 cuts.

3-3-6-9: Improves with 33, 666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/16pts with all cuts.

Position:

The average 10pts will take us to 3rd street positional hole. Every point past this will increase our chances of winning so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-3-7 and 2-3-3-9 will peg better than 3-3-6-9 playing Offense and perhaps 2-3-3-7 the best.

Summary:

3-3-6-9 is best for starting value but it has few cuts for improvement but all 8 score 12-16pts. 2-3-3-7 is lower by 3¼pts but it has guaranteed improvement and 36 cuts for 8-12pts. Also I think it will peg best. So I'll throw the 6-9.

Friday 1:23 PM

At 60-61* playing Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages are:

________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total____W4 %____W5 %
3-3-6-9_____7.35+(-2.57)+(-4.37)= 0.41___12.9____39.5
2-3-3-9_____7.96+(-2.37)+(-5.94)=(-0.35)__15.9____41.2
2-3-3-7_____8.09+(-2.70)+(-5.97)=(-0.58)__17.6____45.0

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
3-3-6-9________14.2____36.7
2-3-3-9________20.0____37.5
2-3-3-7________18.5____34.7

3-3-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.76pt. over 2-3-3-9 but in this board position approaching 3rd street positional hole I think the Win/Loss %s are more important. 2-3-3-7 is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead a 3 and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
3_________________2.30
7_________________1.71
2_________________1.53

Friday 5:24 PM

If I'm matching Ras and Mike the Expert, I can't be too far off.