September 23, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
60-61*  ?
68%
14%
11%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 217
dec
5770 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:24 AM
I would rather balk their crib then go for the ace or four cut on a 6-9 discard. It is close thou on these choices. Three lead. dec
MiketheExpert
551 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 3:55 AM
I think this hand is trying to bait me into picking the (6 9) discard, and I was reluctant to do it, but in the end I took the bait, and will see what will come of it. On the service it doesn't make sense to give up a 6-pt hold with negative delta for our (2 7) crib throw, in place of a 4-pt starting hold that throws 2 pts (6 9) into the opponent's crib. But at this board position, and with the guaranteed improvement of (2 3 3 7) and better pegging prospects, let's do this in our strongest effort to reach the next par hole. (3 3 6 9) only has 8/46 cuts for improvement of these 6 cards, and we are not likely to peg unless pone has similar matching cards...So let's play the odds, and if I'm wrong, so be it! :)
MiketheExpert says: *pone = dealer above
MiketheExpert says: and *service = surface. That will teach me to try typing this early in the morning.
MiketheExpert says: The main "problem" I have with the (6 9), is that if I do get unlucky and happen to cut one of those 8 (33,666,999), I've given up a huge hand in exchange for will likely be a much bigger crib...so in "some" ways I like this play, but in others I don't.
MiketheExpert says: Still okay with the 3 cuts, it is more so the 6 or the 9...
james500
3354 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 4:30 AM
Very likely to be too unambitious, but I'd like to try this on for size.

3-2-6 pegging plan,
Every cut is helpful,
9-3 when another 3 and a 6 are out of circulation, might not be too potent.
Ras2829
4594 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:54 AM
With dealer very short of third street CPZ (69-73) and n/d needing nine points to enter that zone for next deal, it's offense to include the pegging. After seeing the starter card, knowing that n/d has 8 points, will lead a trey and take pegs as offered. Headed out of here for a few days - back cto CHOD on upcoming Tuesday. Our favored tropy trout fall excursion is off as the U. S. Forest Service has closed the forest because of raging wildfires and continuing extreme fire conditions. Many of the western wildfires have been burning for months and remain zero % contained. Some will burn until the snows of winter extinguish. So, we will have a couple of days only to fish in unfamiliar water. More later. This choice has the greater combined value (pegs, hand score, minus crib). Win/loss % will defer to HalscribCLX on that. The cribbot knows what those are in every hole on the board. RAS won't live long enough to figure that out.
Eolus619 says: Have a great time Ras..and it has been my experience that a fisherman’s best friend is a good excuse!
cribbagepogo says: Amerands kept the fires under control we have a lot to learn
glmccuskey
3552 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Friday 5:17 AM
Don’t be afraid of 6-9 with dealer at 61. RAS has it right.
bbaer1
3171 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Friday 5:19 AM
I’m shooting for the maximum hand here to hopefully get into position.
Gougie00
5143 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 5:35 AM
I want that 233 together. Will take the chance that the 67 won't toast me. Learned that 3369 is usually only a 6 hand.
Eolus619
775 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 6:42 AM
Ras submits another valuable lesson in board position. Pone needs to earn the average ten to have the deal first @ 70. Offense it is. I initially thought I would keep 3-3-6-9 but my pencil showed it gets cut help from only a 3,6,or 9…ouch. Keep 2-3-3-7 has only one loser cut ..a four & 2-2-3: has double run potential.
Eolus619 says: BTW..good news from Omaha. In a tournament yesterday … One of CHOD’s frequent commenters, Dan Selke ( the jazzman) finished in the top four of 230 players. Well done Dan..congratulations!
Eolus619 says: geeez an obvious counting blunder ..one making a double run no less….the four works too..so all cuts help
mrob2199
1071 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 7:16 AM
Agree with most that the 233 has to stay together here-don’t love discarding the 67 here but the 9 hold gives us 2 or 4 more points than the 7 if we hit or 4 cut
wasa
2471 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 7:28 AM
I saw the 2-3-3-7 but starting with 4 points and tossing 2 points didn't thrill me. Keeping 6 and tossing zero at 60-61* to me is the better choice. But, after reviewing RAS and Mike's comments, I'm probably wrong. Oh well.
Inushtuk1
934 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Friday 8:10 AM
On offense this is the way to go. Ras has submitted this hand several times before. Check out Nov. 2, 2016. 3-3-6-9(2-7) on defense, 2-3-3-7(6-9) on offense.
Inushtuk1 says: Jazzselke's comments back in 2016 are most revealing when comparing 2-3-3-7(6-9), and 2-3-39(6-7).
JQT
3588 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 12:47 PM
We need Ten Points as Pone to reach the Third Street Par Hole 70 by completion of this deal, but it appears we may come up 'short' regardless of what we do here.

I believe it's between Toss (2 7) and Toss (6 9) today, and I'll take the seemingly safer route and Toss (2 7). After the Queen Cut, we still have Six Points; let's lead the 6 Card, so we can parry if scored upon.
Coeurdelion
5041 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 1:15 PM
I'll examine 2-3-3-7 (6-9), 2-3-3-9 (6-7) and 3-3-6-9 (2-7):

2-3-3-7: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

2-3-3-9: 4pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.42) = -2pts

3-3-6-9: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = +1pt

Potential:

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xxs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 16xXs = 36 cuts.

2-3-3-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 666, 777, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAAA, 33, 4444, 999 + 16xxs = 29 cuts.

3-3-6-9: Improves with 33, 666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/16pts with all cuts.

Position:

The average 10pts will take us to 3rd street positional hole. Every point past this will increase our chances of winning so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-3-7 and 2-3-3-9 will peg better than 3-3-6-9 playing Offense and perhaps 2-3-3-7 the best.

Summary:

3-3-6-9 is best for starting value but it has few cuts for improvement but all 8 score 12-16pts. 2-3-3-7 is lower by 3¼pts but it has guaranteed improvement and 36 cuts for 8-12pts. Also I think it will peg best. So I'll throw the 6-9.
HalscribCLX
4767 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 1:23 PM
At 60-61* playing Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages are:

________________Dlr's
Defense____Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total____W4 %____W5 %
3-3-6-9_____7.35+(-2.57)+(-4.37)= 0.41___12.9____39.5
2-3-3-9_____7.96+(-2.37)+(-5.94)=(-0.35)__15.9____41.2
2-3-3-7_____8.09+(-2.70)+(-5.97)=(-0.58)__17.6____45.0

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
3-3-6-9________14.2____36.7
2-3-3-9________20.0____37.5
2-3-3-7________18.5____34.7

3-3-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.76pt. over 2-3-3-9 but in this board position approaching 3rd street positional hole I think the Win/Loss %s are more important. 2-3-3-7 is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 6-9 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead a 3 and play Offense:

Lead________Our Pegging Pts.
3_________________2.30
7_________________1.71
2_________________1.53
wasa says: I really don't understand the numbers. So I'm being told that the hand that gives up the most points to the dealer and the largest expected crib to dealer (-2.7 pegs and -5.97 in the crib) has the highest probability of winning in 4 or 5 hands. So, the expected 0.74 extra points in our hand with 2-3-3-7 more than makes up for the loss of 0.99 points pegging plus crib. Hard to believe.
bbaer1 says: As is said often here, thanks to Rob, don’t overthink this. The highest average hand gets you closer to the par hole or CPZ and thereby increasing your odds to win.
wetbomb
35 votes

Joined: April 2022

 
 
 
Friday 5:24 PM
If I'm matching Ras and Mike the Expert, I can't be too far off.