Friday 3:03 AM

Not giving away the 22 to keep flush. Want to keep the 224 so goes the 8Q keeping the 2247 together.

   

Friday 3:13 AM

I’m with goat today-Gotta keep dealer down and 8-Q shouid do the trick -the 2247 is a good pegging hand and also very good in limiting dealer pegs as well

   

Friday 3:41 AM

The option to discard defensively with Q-8, more bravely with 2-2, or maybe 4-Q which is neither one thing or the other.

7(7)-X(17)-2(19)-X(29)-2(31/2) pegging sequence is possible.

   

Friday 3:57 AM

I understand the necessity to get to a good cpz, not at the risk of 2-2 even if they are short themselves. 2 3 4 6 9 are the prime cuts here for us. dec

   

Friday 4:27 AM

I don't think Dealer's Position allows us to Toss (2 2), and so it's likely a matter of deciding between Toss (4 Q) and Toss (8 Q).

Both resultant hands have the three-card "Magic Eleven" of 2-2-7, but since we are Pone and trailing as we head onto Fourth Street, we'll want to be leading a Deuce or a 4 Card, so the "Magic Eleven" might only garner Two Points, while these same hand compositions might seek a (31=4) if we were Dealer.

I think we should lean toward safety, so let's Keep (2 2 4 7) and Toss (8 Q) today. Sadly, we have a lot of "loser" Cuts (AAAA, 5555, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK), which is HALF the deck if you're counting, but that's the nature of the cards we were dealt, regardless of our discard.

After the 4 Card Cut, we now have Ten Points in an easy-to-miscount Hand, and since we Cut a 4 Card, let's lead our 4 Card. If ANY other card had been the Cut Card, I would have led a Deuce.

Leading the 4 Card helps reduce the chance that the Dealer will be able to easily "connect" our cards with his/her own in order to form a RUN during the pegging.

   

Friday 4:35 AM

(8 Q) or (4 Q) are the choices, since we cannot afford to help dealer here by tossing the pair of deuces, eliminating the flush as a contender. I like the most defensive (8 Q), as I think hand + pegging score combined with lower value of opponent's crib makes sense for us here. First order of business is holding dealer back, and secondly, it is trying to advance our position.

   

Friday 5:56 AM

Position says toss 8-Q imho.

   

Friday 6:11 AM

Echo....

   

Friday 6:43 AM

Still processing yesterday’s 7-7 lesson and Hal’s massive (relatively so) gaps between the three choices. Today, the pegs tell me that dealing from 98 next hand is of less value if current dealer gets to 111+…88-94*…98*-110…114-120*…so a defensive discard 8-Q and try to make this a three hand game beginning with this hand. BTW..current Pone can be -3 to the cycle and still be at 111 with a decent chance to win counting out first…however, concurrently, current dealer needs to be held to -5 of the cycle to be at 115 or less to prevent he/she from having a good chance to peg out before I can count out. The keep gets cut help from 2,3,4,6,7,8,& 9.Nice board position puzzle James500.

   

Friday 6:43 AM

Wasnt sure what to hold 2247 or 2278. I went for the 6 cut. Oh well. If I knew the 4 would be cut, I'd go that way. Lead the 2 and peg.

   

Friday 6:56 AM

Looks like I’m solo here today - good - maybe I’ll learn something.

I like the clarity of this spot. The 2-2 is very hit or miss to the crib, and I feel like I can run away from pegging in most spots here. I don’t see the 2-2 as ideal, but neither is cutting a face with 2-2-4-7 and dealing from 92-94.

   

Friday 7:45 AM

I feel that playing my position first, this gives me the best chance to be dealing at 95/96, or better. Maybe both Jason and I will learn something today.

And yes, please do go back and check Ras's late comments yesterday, vis-a-vis 2-3-3-7(7-7) on *Defense*.

   

Friday 7:49 AM

Dealer at 94 makes me want to slow them down if I can do so without wrecking my hand. The Q-8 let's us keep 4 with a very defensive discard instead of keeping 6 with automatic points (the 2-2).

Happy with the cut today as I'm dealing from at least 98 next hand, so I'll aim to hold dealer to only their guaranteed 1 point and lead the 4. I would be really tempted to pair a 2 later in the pegging (as long as it keeps the count under 28), but I think that potential 14-6 trade may be too dangerous today.

   

Friday 8:20 AM

I also like this keep for potential and safety. All of you on the east coast stay safe.

   

Friday 9:11 AM

Just an echo to JQT's eloquence this day. Best approach this hand is to limit dealer as 4th street CPZ is 95-99. Once seeing the starter card, knowing that have 10 points which will give us the deal deep into that 4th street zone. Lead the four. If no four on the deck, lead a deuce. Play it SAFE!!

   

Friday 9:23 AM

Just wanted to note - I heard our cribbage family lost someone today who was not only a fantastic player - but a genuinely good person.

Lee Ann Kaai was an opponent I respected so much, on many levels. She was high qualifier at Grand National in Sacramento. But my memory of her that speaks most to the person she was - we were short one player for the second of a 2-day event in Nacogdoches, Texas. I called Lee Ann, who was roughly 3.5 hours away and asked her to come play, so we could have an official event. She had to wake up at god-knows-when in order to come play, and she did. I think she kicked my ass when we played too.

RIP to the best player in Texas, and maybe one of the best I’ve been lucky enough to hang out with. I know I’ll genuinely miss her.

   

Friday 2:32 PM

I think it's between 4-7-8-Q (2-2), 2-2-7-8 (4-Q) and 2-2-4-7 (8-Q):

4-7-8-Q: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.38) = -½pt

2-2-7-8: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.46) = -½pt

2-2-4-7: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -¼pt

Potential:

4-7-8-Q: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, QQQ = 32 cuts = 29/46 = 69.6% up to 9/10pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

2-2-7-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 7/8/11pts with 22, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts.

2-2-4-7: Improves with 22, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/10/12pts with 22, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 9999 = 20 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is nearly at 4th street positional hole while we are 6pts short and 23pts short of where we would like to be at 111pts. I think our best bet is to play Defense and try to keep opponent as far short of 111pts as possible.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-4-7 will peg best with 3 low cards and a middle card. Both 2-2-4-7 and 2-2-7-8 have a 3-card magic eleven. The flush will be harder to read but even so I think 2-2-4-7 will be best playing Offense.

Summary:

2-2-4-7 is best for starting value by ¼pt. although 4-7-8-Q has 0.20pt potential for a club cut so they're virtually even. 4-7-8-Q has most cuts for improvement but 2-2-4-7 has 20 cuts for 8-12pts and 2-2-7-8 has 20 cuts for 7-11pts compared with 17 cuts for 9/10pts with 4-7-8-Q. Plus I think 2-2-4-7 will peg best so I'll throw the 8-Q.

   

Friday 2:43 PM

At 88-94* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total____W2 %____W3 %
2-2-4-7____6.35+(-2.41)+(-4.22)=(-0.28)____8.3___32.7
2-2-7-8____6.22+(-2.24)+(-4.52)=(-0.54)____6.9___30.7
4-7-8-Q____8.15+(-2.83)+(-6.16)=(-0.84)___11.6___32.8

Defense______L2 %___L3 %
2-2-4-7_______33.6___60.3
2-2-7-8_______35.1___62.8
4-7-8-Q_______44.3___60.6

2-2-4-7 is best for expected averages by 0.26pt. but 4-7-8-Q is significantly best for Win %s although it is considerably higher for Loss %s because of the risk of the 22 discard while 2-2-4-7 is appreciably lowest. So I'll select the 8-Q to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_____________Net Pegging Pts._____Loss %
2____________________(-0.62)___________0.7
4____________________(-0.91)___________1.0
7____________________(-1.08)___________0.3

Although the 2 lead is lower for Net Pegging Points the 7 lead is lowest for Loss %s.