September 30, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by James500
88-94*  ?
43%
34%
19%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 229
Goatman
2455 votes

Joined: March 2017

 
 
 
Friday 3:03 AM
Not giving away the 22 to keep flush. Want to keep the 224 so goes the 8Q keeping the 2247 together.
mrob2199
1119 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 3:13 AM
I’m with goat today-Gotta keep dealer down and 8-Q shouid do the trick -the 2247 is a good pegging hand and also very good in limiting dealer pegs as well
james500
3417 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:41 AM
The option to discard defensively with Q-8, more bravely with 2-2, or maybe 4-Q which is neither one thing or the other.

7(7)-X(17)-2(19)-X(29)-2(31/2) pegging sequence is possible.
dec
5831 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:57 AM
I understand the necessity to get to a good cpz, not at the risk of 2-2 even if they are short themselves. 2 3 4 6 9 are the prime cuts here for us. dec
JQT
3651 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:27 AM
I don't think Dealer's Position allows us to Toss (2 2), and so it's likely a matter of deciding between Toss (4 Q) and Toss (8 Q).

Both resultant hands have the three-card "Magic Eleven" of 2-2-7, but since we are Pone and trailing as we head onto Fourth Street, we'll want to be leading a Deuce or a 4 Card, so the "Magic Eleven" might only garner Two Points, while these same hand compositions might seek a (31=4) if we were Dealer.

I think we should lean toward safety, so let's Keep (2 2 4 7) and Toss (8 Q) today. Sadly, we have a lot of "loser" Cuts (AAAA, 5555, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK), which is HALF the deck if you're counting, but that's the nature of the cards we were dealt, regardless of our discard.

After the 4 Card Cut, we now have Ten Points in an easy-to-miscount Hand, and since we Cut a 4 Card, let's lead our 4 Card. If ANY other card had been the Cut Card, I would have led a Deuce.

Leading the 4 Card helps reduce the chance that the Dealer will be able to easily "connect" our cards with his/her own in order to form a RUN during the pegging.
MiketheExpert
613 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 4:35 AM
(8 Q) or (4 Q) are the choices, since we cannot afford to help dealer here by tossing the pair of deuces, eliminating the flush as a contender. I like the most defensive (8 Q), as I think hand + pegging score combined with lower value of opponent's crib makes sense for us here. First order of business is holding dealer back, and secondly, it is trying to advance our position.
MiketheExpert says: I like the 4 lead best, giving us a scoring response if dealer pairs, and saving our deuces for a potential scoring play, also they should work well as a defensive "out" if needed.
MiketheExpert says: Because we have a 10-pt hand, I'm not overly concerned with scoring points on the exchange, and would probably lead a 2 if the four had not been cut.
wasa
2533 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 5:56 AM
Position says toss 8-Q imho.
Sally3
303 votes

Joined: October 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:11 AM
Echo....
Eolus619
835 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 6:43 AM
Still processing yesterday’s 7-7 lesson and Hal’s massive (relatively so) gaps between the three choices. Today, the pegs tell me that dealing from 98 next hand is of less value if current dealer gets to 111+…88-94*…98*-110…114-120*…so a defensive discard 8-Q and try to make this a three hand game beginning with this hand. BTW..current Pone can be -3 to the cycle and still be at 111 with a decent chance to win counting out first…however, concurrently, current dealer needs to be held to -5 of the cycle to be at 115 or less to prevent he/she from having a good chance to peg out before I can count out. The keep gets cut help from 2,3,4,6,7,8,& 9.Nice board position puzzle James500.
MiketheExpert says: Yesterday, there was also quite a gap between the Schell value of the 77 discard (at 7.14) vs. Hal's calculation of (6.42), which is a big difference. Negative delta should be minimal holding another 7. Although I'm even more surprised as RAS stated, that apparently CribProf evaluates this hand as best on the DEFENSIVE side of the coin as well....Although I don't tend to play defense as a rule on the first hand, and I can certainly see the numbers being quite a different for offense, I would certainly not pick this if I was using a defense strategy at most board positions.
Gougie00
5206 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 6:43 AM
Wasnt sure what to hold 2247 or 2278. I went for the 6 cut. Oh well. If I knew the 4 would be cut, I'd go that way. Lead the 2 and peg.
jmath714
1239 votes

Joined: January 2012

 
 
 
Friday 6:56 AM
Looks like I’m solo here today - good - maybe I’ll learn something.

I like the clarity of this spot. The 2-2 is very hit or miss to the crib, and I feel like I can run away from pegging in most spots here. I don’t see the 2-2 as ideal, but neither is cutting a face with 2-2-4-7 and dealing from 92-94.
Inushtuk1
983 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Friday 7:45 AM
I feel that playing my position first, this gives me the best chance to be dealing at 95/96, or better. Maybe both Jason and I will learn something today.

And yes, please do go back and check Ras's late comments yesterday, vis-a-vis 2-3-3-7(7-7) on *Defense*.
fentesk
706 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Friday 7:49 AM
Dealer at 94 makes me want to slow them down if I can do so without wrecking my hand. The Q-8 let's us keep 4 with a very defensive discard instead of keeping 6 with automatic points (the 2-2).

Happy with the cut today as I'm dealing from at least 98 next hand, so I'll aim to hold dealer to only their guaranteed 1 point and lead the 4. I would be really tempted to pair a 2 later in the pegging (as long as it keeps the count under 28), but I think that potential 14-6 trade may be too dangerous today.
winesteward48
376 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 8:20 AM
I also like this keep for potential and safety. All of you on the east coast stay safe.
Ras2829
4657 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 9:11 AM
Just an echo to JQT's eloquence this day. Best approach this hand is to limit dealer as 4th street CPZ is 95-99. Once seeing the starter card, knowing that have 10 points which will give us the deal deep into that 4th street zone. Lead the four. If no four on the deck, lead a deuce. Play it SAFE!!
Danish Viking says: Agreed. Dealer is short positional hole 96. Since the starter is a 4 I would lead with that. Dealer needs to peg and you have the other 4 kicker for trips. With a few peg points and the 10 hand should put you at hole 98 - 100? Stating your 3 hands to count. Counting Out with you pone hand to win. All hands averaging out of course?
jmath714
1239 votes

Joined: January 2012

 
 
 
Friday 9:23 AM
Just wanted to note - I heard our cribbage family lost someone today who was not only a fantastic player - but a genuinely good person.

Lee Ann Kaai was an opponent I respected so much, on many levels. She was high qualifier at Grand National in Sacramento. But my memory of her that speaks most to the person she was - we were short one player for the second of a 2-day event in Nacogdoches, Texas. I called Lee Ann, who was roughly 3.5 hours away and asked her to come play, so we could have an official event. She had to wake up at god-knows-when in order to come play, and she did. I think she kicked my ass when we played too.

RIP to the best player in Texas, and maybe one of the best I’ve been lucky enough to hang out with. I know I’ll genuinely miss her.
mrob2199 says: Very comforting words Jason-I can only add that I will miss Lee Ann and the countless variation games that we cooked up to play-prayers to her cribbage friends and family -especially her dad Art who is unquestionably one of the nicest people in the universe
Sally3 says: I debated posting something on here, so I'm glad that you did, Jason. I am just heartbroken. Lee Ann was so much fun, and I was so sad to hear how ill she became at way too young of an age. Losing both her and Mark Smith is under a week is mindnumbing.
dec says: I wish I would have met her never mind played her. Sad loss prayers for her and her family. dec
Coeurdelion
5104 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 2:32 PM
I think it's between 4-7-8-Q (2-2), 2-2-7-8 (4-Q) and 2-2-4-7 (8-Q):

4-7-8-Q: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.38) = -½pt

2-2-7-8: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.46) = -½pt

2-2-4-7: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -¼pt

Potential:

4-7-8-Q: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999, QQQ = 32 cuts = 29/46 = 69.6% up to 9/10pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

2-2-7-8: Improves with 22, 3333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 7/8/11pts with 22, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 20 cuts.

2-2-4-7: Improves with 22, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/10/12pts with 22, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 9999 = 20 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is nearly at 4th street positional hole while we are 6pts short and 23pts short of where we would like to be at 111pts. I think our best bet is to play Defense and try to keep opponent as far short of 111pts as possible.

Pegging:

I think 2-2-4-7 will peg best with 3 low cards and a middle card. Both 2-2-4-7 and 2-2-7-8 have a 3-card magic eleven. The flush will be harder to read but even so I think 2-2-4-7 will be best playing Offense.

Summary:

2-2-4-7 is best for starting value by ¼pt. although 4-7-8-Q has 0.20pt potential for a club cut so they're virtually even. 4-7-8-Q has most cuts for improvement but 2-2-4-7 has 20 cuts for 8-12pts and 2-2-7-8 has 20 cuts for 7-11pts compared with 17 cuts for 9/10pts with 4-7-8-Q. Plus I think 2-2-4-7 will peg best so I'll throw the 8-Q.
HalscribCLX
4829 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 2:43 PM
At 88-94* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs___Crib___Total____W2 %____W3 %
2-2-4-7____6.35+(-2.41)+(-4.22)=(-0.28)____8.3___32.7
2-2-7-8____6.22+(-2.24)+(-4.52)=(-0.54)____6.9___30.7
4-7-8-Q____8.15+(-2.83)+(-6.16)=(-0.84)___11.6___32.8

Defense______L2 %___L3 %
2-2-4-7_______33.6___60.3
2-2-7-8_______35.1___62.8
4-7-8-Q_______44.3___60.6

2-2-4-7 is best for expected averages by 0.26pt. but 4-7-8-Q is significantly best for Win %s although it is considerably higher for Loss %s because of the risk of the 22 discard while 2-2-4-7 is appreciably lowest. So I'll select the 8-Q to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll lead the 7 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_____________Net Pegging Pts._____Loss %
2____________________(-0.62)___________0.7
4____________________(-0.91)___________1.0
7____________________(-1.08)___________0.3

Although the 2 lead is lower for Net Pegging Points the 7 lead is lowest for Loss %s.