October 1, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
35-40*  ?
39%
27%
21%
4%
4%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 197
scottcribHand from last night's eCrib tournament. It was originally my crib, but I changed it to being pone's. The interesting thing is the toss might be the same no matter whose crib it is.
MiketheExpert
613 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 3:41 AM
The 2 choices for me today are (A A) or (4 9) in opponent's crib. If it was my crib, choices would be between (AA, A4, or 78), and I think I would be tempted to pick 78 first in most board positions though it breaks up the double-run opportunity. Dual purposes today, as we are both short of position, so I would like to keep a double-run opportunity, but it is at the cost of getting rid of our pair of aces, which could also be of great aid to our hand as well as pegging. As dealer is also short, I think I will try to get the best of both worlds by throwing the (4 9) today. Still left with a 4-pt hand which can get significant help on a few cuts, and it is more flexible in choosing either a defensive or offensive stance, while not immediately giving any help to dealer. After the 8 cut giving me an 8-pt hand, I think I will go with the 7 lead.
MiketheExpert says: Might be my first time ever making it as the first response on this site :)
scottcrib says: Pride of place for you today! Anyone know what happened to Rosemarie?
Eolus619 says: Scott..thx for asking this question…I miss her early insightful posts. I hope all is well with her.
mrob2199
1119 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 4:23 AM
Either keep 5 and throw 2 away or keep four and throw 0 away-by my rudimentary math that is plus 1 with my discard-like the A lead for a potential trip or getting into a middle card pegging war first
Sally3 says: Speaking of rudimentary math, can someone explain this FB post to me, please? Rick Baird said: 8+2=10... 7+2=9... Go with the 45 to your crib. Then Kelly Holt replied: A 1-point difference in held points is very often offset by cut card probabilities and pegging potential, but you could be right in this case.
Sally3 says: Oh...the hand was 4-5-6-7-8-9
MiketheExpert says: Sounds like Rick B. was talking about the (4 5) discard as 8 (6-7-8-9) + 2 in crib (automatic with the 5 throw), while Kelly H. may have been suggesting that the (7 8) could be the proper discard (keeping 4-5-6-9) 7 to start, throwing (7-8) 2 pts in the crib. This equates to a 1-point difference in starting points held. Perhaps there are other cases in which a 1-pt difference (talking about cut card and pegging are true), but in this case it would seem that the (4-5) could be better in either case.... Could be? :-), although a lot of assumptions on my part being made.....
Ras2829 says: Interesting discussion relative to dealer hand of 4-5-6-7-8-9. Many folks automatically think 7-8 has the higher average. The 4-5 (642) is 6.534 while 7/8 (3,670) is 6.442. The 4-5 shines because of all those 6-X discards and works well with A-X, another common n/d choice to crib. The 6-7-8-9 has greater hand potential and 4-5 scores more to crib. Matters not whether playing offense or defense although the difference favoring 4-5 is even greater if choosing defense. Just ran a query on Cribbage Prof and the Prof agrees with all that. The difference in pegging is so small that not a factor.
Sally3 says: Thanks! You've just changed my mind. Barrett says 7-8, and I've been doing that, but I see how much better the 4-5 is now :)
Gougie00
5206 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:28 AM
Suddenly I feel smarter. I want to keep the 789 together just incase a middle card is cut. I'd rather toss the dealer AA than A4. What do I know?
dec
5831 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:29 AM
Defense and a good lead card. Play tight to the best and await our deal next. dec
Eolus619 says: Insightful comments dec…so many of us would win more games if we just would be patient for that one hand. Recognizing when to do this based on board postion is the “trick” This can only be learned from experience…I think
glmccuskey
3595 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 4:30 AM
I’ll lead the eight and save the aces.
Sally3 says: Was so good to see you at GN. We need to have a small group outing at our next tourney :)
james500
3417 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 4:45 AM
9-4 from me. As Dealer, A-4.
wasa
2533 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 4:46 AM
I agree with Gougie
Bottomfeeder
243 votes

Joined: February 2022
 
 
 
Saturday 4:54 AM
I figure AA will do me less damage than an A4.
Jazzselke
2229 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:11 AM
Dealer is dealing short, so between hand and pegging we can actually steal position in this game. Tempted to throw the aces, but middle-card cuts can still allow us to get us close to or past Hole 43. Another thoughtful puzzle Scott. Our crib I would throw A4.
Sally3 says: I'm finally not being blinded by possible double runs :)
smokeytroll42
162 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 6:34 AM
I don’t want to break up a run and I don’t want to toss an A4.
Inushtuk1
983 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 6:46 AM
I don't want to break up a run either. I don't want to toss (A-A). With 12 in my hand and having given away a minimum of 2 points, lead the A.
Sally3
303 votes

Joined: October 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 6:48 AM
I always want to keep my aces when possible. Please see the comment left on Rob's post--someone enlighten me because I am clueless!
Eolus619
835 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 7:08 AM
Another good board position puzzle from Scott. Even though Pone is behind d in relative score, Pone needs nine points to have the deck first in CPZ#2. Cut help is slim with keep A-A-7-8 ..need a A-5-6-7-8 or 9. That’s almost half the deck. With the eight cut , now I need to peg well and I will be in position.
Eolus619 says: Interesting…so far over 50% of the 84 votes have decided not to use board position to guide their discard decision. That’s the beauty of cribbage..individual choices each hand. If you are one of the voters who went this way..read read mrob2199 and dec for the opposite view.
Eolus619 says: and Jazz makes an insightful comment about board position too.
scottcrib
1119 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 8:11 AM
I think that being behind in score can tempt some players to make poorer discard decisions. Agree with dec's comments.
winesteward48
376 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 8:46 AM
Lately, as pone, I have been cutting poor cards. It is nice to see my practicing is paying off.
JQT
3651 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 11:42 AM
Scottcrib continues to deliver some superb puzzles that challenge our thinking!

How can we become the Next Dealer at or beyond the Second Street Par Hole 44? We'd like to leave the 7-8-9 Run intact, and that entails either Toss (A A) or Toss (A 4), which are nearly equally dangerous, with a slight edge in safety going to Toss (A 4).

Should we consider Keep (A A 7 8) and Toss (4 9)? How many Cut Cards get us to Hole 44? Maybe about a Dozen Cuts (AA, 6666, 777, 888) get us there, or get us very close.

Shall we even look at Keep (A A 4 7) and Toss (8 9) as a Defensive Option? Any Ten (or "X") Card Cut adds an immediate Four Points, and overall, a whopping Forty-Two Cuts (AA, 2222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) do add some amount of help! In fact, all but the four 5 Cards add help! That's some weird kind of defensive resource!

The Dealer is already Four Holes 'short' of the "target," and so there's actually some strong basis to "clamp down" and defend today, so "Bravo!" to the Brave Ones who choose to Toss (8 9) here!!

Let's Keep (A A 7 8) and Toss (4 9) today, and after the 8 Card Cut, we now have Eight Points, so we could lead an Ace or lead our 8 Card. All we need to do is peg One One to reach our "target" today.

I fear a 5 Card reply after we lead an 8 Card, or the Dealer may score (15=2) and challenge us if we lead the 8 Card; so therefore, let's stick with the much safer Ace Lead.
MiketheExpert says: Hi JQT. I also like the 7 lead (probably better than the 8 for the reason you mentioned) rather than splitting the aces, because I find it often disguises your holding of an AA pair, it makes a scoring response over a "paired" 7, and also makes an 8 (over a 7-8) much less dangerous due to the presence of another 8. However, I would certainly not like it if dealer happened to have the CASE "8", and played this for 31-8), thereby revealing a hand with 3 8's! In that respect, responding with an A or even leading the A does not seem like a bad choice to me either. Also, opening with the 7 or 8 could enable (7-X-8-5-A),(8-X-7-5-A), or (7-x-8-?-A-go-A)...Thus, I may try to score at least 2 points a little bit more aggressively than the more passive A lead (being @ hole 43), and I can see arguments both for and against either continuation here.
Coeurdelion
5104 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:02 PM
I think it's between 4-7-8-9 (A-A), A-7-8-9 (A-4) and A-A-7-8 (4-9):

4-7-8-9: 5pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.02) = -1pt

A-7-8-9: 5pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = -1pt

A-A-7-8: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = -¾pt

Potential:

4-7-8-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

A-7-8-9: Improves with AA, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts.

A-A-7-8: Improves with AA, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 7/8/12/13pts with AA, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 16 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is dealing 4pts short of 2nd street positional hole while we're 5pts further behind. But we only need 9pts to reach 44pts so I'll play Defense to hold opponent back.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think A-A-7-8 will peg best but 4-7-8-9 also has a magic eleven so ought to peg well too.

Summary:

A-A-7-8 is best for starting value by ¼pt while 4-7-8-9 has the most cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 8-12pts compared with 13 cuts for 10/12pts with A-7-8-9 and 16 cuts for 7-13pts with A-A-7-8. So as A-A-7-8 starts a ¼pt ahead, has 16 cuts for 7-13pts and should peg best so I'll throw the 4-9.
HalscribCLX
4829 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:09 PM
At 35-40* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total______W6 %____W7 %
A-A-7-8____6.11+(-2.39)+(-4.48)=(-0.76)____16.7____30.6
4-7-8-9____7.20+(-2.70)+(-5.82)=(-1.32)____18.9____31.4
AD-7-8-9___7.15+(-2.78)+(-5.90)=(-1.53)____18.5____30.8

Defense_______L6 %____L7 %
A-A-7-8________32.2____49.2
4-7-8-9________36.2____49.9
AD-7-8-9_______35.9____50.5

A-A-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.56pt. but it is appreciably lowest for Win %s but best for Loss %s. As it's early in the game I'll decide based on the expected averages and select 4-9 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead an A and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
A_______________________0.99
7_______________________1.42
8_______________________1.53