Sunday 3:02 AM

Today we are the Dealer trailing by Two Holes, as we sit just 'shy' of the Fourth Street Par Hole 96.

We have two ways to hold a Double Run, and while one of these begins with an added (15=2), it also entails a vastly inferior discard of Toss (2 8). Toss (5 8), therefore, is worth nearly Two Points more than Toss (2 8) in our Crib, and EVERY Cut Card helps this Hand!

Furthermore, the Double Run with the lower-ranking cards, or Keep (2 3 3 4), is probably a slightly better Pegging Hand than Keep (3 3 4 5).

Let's break down these two Double Runs a bit further:

The Double Run of Keep (2 3 3 4) and Toss (5 8) has: Two Cuts (33) that yield Seventeen Points, Six Cuts (222, 444) that yield Sixteen Points, Thirty Cuts (555, 6666, 888, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) that yield a Dozen Points, and Eight Cuts (AAAA, 7777) that yield Ten Points. Again, EVERY Cut Card helps this Hand!

The Double Run of Keep (3 3 4 5) and Toss (2 8) has: Two Cuts (33) that yield Twenty-One Points, Six Cuts (444, 555) that yield Twenty Points, Eleven Cuts (6666, 7777, 888) that yield Fourteen Points, Twenty-Three Cuts (222, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) that yield a Dozen Points, and Four Cuts (AAAA) that yield Ten Points, or No Help. This is, therefore, a slightly more powerful Hand, but only by a small margin.

The actual Expected Value of Keep (3 3 4 5) is only better than Keep (2 3 3 4) by about 1.4 Points; thus, in my opinion, it cannot be expected to 'make up' for the better Discard Choice of Toss (5 8).

In Summary: We'll start out with less, but likely end up with more, if we Toss (5 8).

After the 4 Card Cut, we now have Sixteen Points in our Hand, with prospects for a Good Crib.

This area had a nice 'blast' of Early Winter Snow over the weekend, and it is a storm very reminiscent of the 2014 Thanksgiving Storm that also affected this area, and due to the weather phenomenon known as "Thundersnow," it's also a bit similar to the October Surprise of 2006, also known as "Arborgeddon" due to all of the tree damage caused by that early storm. REF: https://youtu.be/1XMyFgzQt1o

It's interesting to see the 'Lake Effect' bands of snow moving across the sky, as the moisture-laden air above the warm water of Lake Erie is blown from West to East while mixing with the much colder air, as it often has very well-defined lines of demarcation, and sometimes just driving a few blocks you can see the snow level change from merely five inches deep to over five feet deep! REF: https://youtu.be/NYfLDacS5dk

My specific location, located right along the Erie Canal, had one period when the snow was falling at a rate of four or five inches per hour. Since I acquired a Subaru in 2010, I've never been stuck in the snow in the slightest! Our overall accumulation here at my location has been mild as compared to South of the city of Buffalo, near the football stadium, where several feet of snow has buried the empty seats, and the game scheduled for today has been moved to the city of Detroit, where incidentally Buffalo shall play again on Thanksgiving Day! REF: https://youtu.be/LuZtzuLAjhg

   

Sunday 3:21 AM

There are some exceptions to the maxim, "never break up a double run", so I spent a short while thinking about 3-3-4-8 (2-5) and 2-3-4-8 (3-5). I didn't choose either, as holding 6+2 points or 5+2 points must be too much of a reduction from the known 10 points from either double run. This way I get to keep the 2-3-3 group together and still put a 5 card in my crib.

   

Sunday 4:14 AM

   

Sunday 4:18 AM

I toyed with the idea of keeping the ten-point hand here. But with the amount of cuts that add on and as far as pegging this keep has its opportunities. Plus, a nickel in crib might find six or more points. I am sold. Offense. dec

   

Sunday 4:27 AM

I'm not going to give up the shot at 20 or 21. I'll take only safe pegs.

   

Sunday 4:45 AM

I’m with Dec today -the crib is going to very valuable from this position and we are much better fortified with 58 than 28

   

Sunday 5:04 AM

I love 3-3-4-5, but not here. 2-8 is just to weak of a discard.

   

Sunday 6:30 AM

Rather put the 5 in my crib. 2-8 is a weak discard. Cut helps everyone today!

   

Sunday 6:41 AM

Torn between 2334 and 3345. Betting 3345 is the right answer, but I'm not liking 2-8 to my own crib. Happy with the 16 hand, and with a known 4-5-8 in the crib will probably get atleast 4 more points. Probably will not go out but will end up with about 5 holes. My story and I'm sticking to it.

Hope my friends in Western NY have plenty of gasoline for their snowblowers.

   

Sunday 7:09 AM

hmmmm…I need an average hand to get to 111. Since joining this site, I have lost track of how frequent the admonition is from commenters about sending fives to own crib when the hand configuration allows it. Keep 2-3-3-4 gets cut help from 13/13 ranks. It should also have the potential to peg the dealer average.

   

Sunday 8:19 AM

I'm with Gary :)

   

Sunday 8:40 AM

I went for the 20, or 21. Only an Ace doesn't hit. Nailed it. Defense to the lead.

   

Sunday 8:46 AM

Happy to start with the 10-pt double run in this position with my 5 in the crib rather than in the hand. The difference between the (2 8) and (5 8) crib throw makes it worth the while, with the better pegging capabilities of (2 3 3 4). After the quadruple run cut of the 4, I am in excellent shape, and even have small prospects for getting out on this hand if I can peg a lot as well. I won't get over-risky in order to do so, as I am very confident I should peg or count out first on next hand - certainly don't give away enough pegs that HE may be able to count out if he has a monster.

   

Sunday 10:26 AM

I now have 16 points in hand and a minimum of 2 in the crib. 18 vs. 20, but more pegging power and maybe more in the crib.

   

Sunday 3:13 PM

I think it's between 2-3-3-4 (5-8), 3-3-4-5 (2-8) and 3-3-4-8 (2-5):

2-3-3-4: 8pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.48) = 13½pts

3-3-4-5: 10pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.66) = 13½pts

3-3-4-8: 6pts + 5½pts (Schell: 5.48) = 11½pts

Potential:

2-3-3-4: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts.

3-3-4-5: Improves with 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 14/20/21pts with 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 888 = 19 cuts.

3-3-4-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 555, 7777, 888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 12/14pts with 222, 33, 444, 555, 888 = 14 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt short of 4th street positional hole as Dealer while opponent is 1pt ahead of it. I'll play a cautious offense strategy.

Pegging:

2-3-3-4 has all low cards while 3-3-4-5 has three low cards and a 5 including a 3-card magic eleven. I think the latter will peg slightly better.

Summary:

2-3-3-4 and 3-3-4-5 have the same starting value but 2-3-3-4 has guaranteed improvement and 39 cuts for 12-17pts. Although 3-3-4-5 may peg slightly better I'll throw the suited 5-8.

   

Sunday 3:14 PM

At 95*-97 playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W1 %____W2 %
2-3-3-4____12.39+3.78+5.58=21.75_____6.0____80.7
3-3-4-5____13.74+3.74+3.30=20.78____10.6____72.4
3S-4-5-8____7.93+3.78+6.57=18.28_____2.6____58.0
2-3-4-8_____8.15+3.57+5.75=17.47_____0.5____51.1
3-3-4-8_____8.48+3.37+5.21=17.06_____0.5____49.7

Offense_______L1 %____L2 %
2-3-3-4________1.1_____11.0
3-3-4-5________0.9_____14.7
3S-4-5-8_______0.8_____25.3
2-3-4-8________0.7_____31.2
3-3-4-8________0.7_____29.6

2-3-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.97pt. over 3-3-4-5 and is considerably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-8 to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.

   

Sunday 6:24 PM

Long weekend. Been working on a pretty big programming project for school. Needless to say, I'm pretty mentally exhausted. Anyway! Here's CribEDGE's result for today:

Keep: Two of Clubs, Three of Clubs, Three of Spades, Four of Hearts
Toss: Five of Diamonds, Eight of Diamonds
Worth: 8 / Bonus: 8

Good good. I always breathe a sigh of relief when CribEDGE selects the crowd-favorite hand. That turn card is a real blessing today, too, doubling the total hand worth to 16 points.

   

Sunday 8:39 PM

HalscribCLX shows the numbers that favor retaining 2-3-3-4. That works for me and the slight edge on pegging for the smaller double run and much larger crib potential that pushes this arrangement to the fore. Chose offense out of the gate and will downshift to optimal knowing that have 16 points in hand and 5-8 averages 5.564 to crib. Will play off the lead though would pair a trey if led. Onan /ace lead would play a trey, on a deuce lead would play the four, and on a four lead would play the deuce. With dealer guaranteed peg, the count of the hand, and average crib for 5-8 discard, will be at hole 117-118. Why risk 6 pegs for a triple with first count on next deal?

   

Sunday 9:06 PM

Nailed it...