November 21, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by cwed
45*-45  ?
83%
9%
4%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 253
cwedIn order to hold max points (2-3-10-10), you have to toss the less-than-optimum 6-J to your own crib. In a neutral position, I typically toss 2-3 from this hand. Does anybody else do this?
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:28 AM
6-J in a real game, but I'll experiment here.
Interested to see how this or 10-10 might pan out.
6-3-2 eleven, all cuts bar an 8 help somewhere.
Eolus619 says: Goodness gracious James500..maybe save some of those made goals for later?….congrats
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:05 AM
I hate to take a four point difference (what happens if 7,8 or even a King gets cut. Brazen move maybe later in game in desperation mode. dec
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 4:11 AM
I think I’ll just keep my six points. Offense to the lead.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:47 AM
If I knew the 9 would be cut then I'd do it differently.
bbaer1
3693 votes

Joined: February 2011
 
 
 
Monday 5:15 AM
I’ll take the kinetic over the potential. All. Day. Long.
scottcrib
1637 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Monday 5:16 AM
I might experiment in a game with a larger positional advantage, but not in a close game.
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:53 AM
Dealer cannot be concerned with crib value in about half the discards made. This is one of those hands. If choosing to load the crib with the 2-3, too much is sacrificed in direct hand score. On average in so doing, dealer will end up with more than a point less than had the 2-3-X-X been played. Don't agonize over those discards of low value which are often the dealer choice to crib. At hole 45 am choosing offense to include the pegging and hold a slight advantage dealing from 2nd street CPZ 43-47. Given the averages, my next deal will be form hole 71 (3rd street CPZ 69-73) is my goal. Grimace and toss 6-J!. BTW 43/91 discards average less than 4.0 to dealer crib. That compares to 2/91 on the other side of the board. So dealer will be looking at low crib averages much of the time.
Eolus619 says: Ras..good morning..plz correct my understanding if need be on your sacrifice rule. When sacrificing up to four hand points the only acceptable discard is 5-5 and THEN only when the remaining keep can earn 12 points with the cut.
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: That's correct. Many use the sacrifice limits on smaller hands as well. Sacrifice limits apply to dealer discards only and apply to only 8 discard choices of the 91 possible. Sacrifice limits are an important element in the Big Hand Rule intended for Big Hands of 8 points or more. From a hand of J-J-Q-K or similar with a pair of fives, dealer should hold the double run for 8, a chance to cut 16-17, and a discard which averages 8.876. Do have your recent E-mails - been swamped. So, think will get to them this evening. If there are those wanting to know more about the sacrifice limits and how to apply as dealer, email raswino29@outlook.com.
Eolus619 says: thx Ras..if you were not a cribbage hall of game guru no one would bother to ask you questions!
JQT says: We should also remember the CERTAINTY and the ORDER in which certain things have been determined. The Crib Values (Charts and Tables) for specific Discard Choices such as Toss (2 3) are mathematically proven, and so we know it shall produce an Average Crib worth close to Seven Points. And what do we mean by "average"? This means that on an infinite board, if we perform Toss (2 3) and do so a very large number of times, then the total distance we travel as a result of those Cribs, when divided by the number of times we perform it, will be exceedingly close to Seven Points. Any specific attempt of course might be more than or less than this, but the average WILL BE (within a tenth of one point) right at Seven Points! Now, what are these "Guidelines of Thumb" like the Sacrifice Limits? These are concepts that have been (often painstakingly) discovered to apply and be true in MOST cases. But please note that these are NOT mathematically proven rules; instead, these are OBSERVATIONS that, as someone has discovered and determined, to almost always hold out to be true. Before we make our Discard Decision, the Crib Value is the BEST way we have to forecast what will actually occur. But when it comes to "guidelines" like the Sacrifice Limits, there will be times when an exception will occur, and if we've seen enough of such examples of exceptions, we can actually KNOW this beforehand. It's important to understand both mathematically and historically the differences between certain concepts such as these in Cribbage, and how and why we apply them.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Your assessment of the 2-3 averaging about 7 points is borne out by my empirical data. Discarded 2-3 to own crib 2,662 times, averaged 7.135 2/91; 147 of two points 5.522%; 1,149 of 3-7 points 43.164; 1,015 of 8-11 points 38.129%; 351 of 12 points or more 13.185%. Stats were not kept with inferior players and end-game cribs to which opponent might toss anything were not counted unless scored in the game. Place great faith in the empirical data which is based on more than 1,000 samples as they reflect board positional considerations, discard preferences by wide range of players, retention of cards with pegging preference, and other nuances which might impact discard choices. Many of the mechanically contrived averages include none of those elements. Hal Mueller made a Herculean effort to incorporate so Hal's analysis is far superior to others commonly used.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 5:56 AM
As above... gotta keep the points
sterno
453 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Monday 6:53 AM
I have stayed with the herd this morning and keeping the points. As my friend Pink would say, "a fish in the boat is worth 3 in the lake"

MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 7:01 AM
Nothing here justifies a 4-pt sacrifice in the starting hand, especially as we are into 2nd street CPZ (43-47). Yes, (6 J) is not nearly as good as (2 3), and if we knew the 9 was going to be cut, we would have liked this more - but this certainly breaks the sacrifice limits if we were to try it, and this should only be done if playing desperation offense.
Eolus619
1343 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Monday 7:42 AM
I would appreciate some, or many setting, me straight about this board position. Dealer has the cards first in CPZ#2 and five hands from this one will have a score of 113-107*…counting first. So it looks to me like current Dealer is in OK shape if ( big if I know!) the averages hold. I do acknowledge it is a tight game as both players only have a two point cushion to protect missing the averages on the low side.
Eolus619 says: Dan Selke, Jazz, has graciously provided me a list of often miscounted hands..so this week's counting puzzles included some of Dan's "heads up" when counting today it is.....3-3--6-6-9 = 14..note the cards that are counted multiple times,in different combinations, for points
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 7:46 AM
With the score tied at Hole 45, we are the Dealer sitting One Hole beyond the Second Street Par Hole 45.

We could Keep (2 3 T T) and Toss (6 J), or maybe we might risk Keep (6 T T J) and Toss (2 3). Usually as the Dealer, we are told to retain our Best Hand in Cribbage, and then discard the remainder. But sometimes we can place more of an emphasis on our Crib, and/or lean toward the better Pegging Hand, and bend or break this rule-of-thumb.

Toss (2 3) is one of the better discards we can place into our Own Crib, and it tends to average about Seven Points, or TWICE AS MUCH as Toss (6 J). Still, those additional Three or Four Points might not 'make up for' the loss of those additional Four Points we would begin with if we Keep (2 3 T T).

Keep (2 3 T T) is a prime example of one of those hands that will DOUBLE if we get any of Eight "Same Card Cuts" (222, 333, TT), which will occur over 17% of the time. Additionally, this hand does well after another Eight Cuts (AAAA, 4444), but of course all of these would also benefit Toss (2 3) as well.

If we Keep (6 T T J) and Toss (2 3), we stand to benefit from Eight Cuts (9999, QQQQ) as well, and so it would seem to be nearly a "wash" as far as opportunities from the Cut Card. Therefore, I am inclined to stick with Keep (2 3 T T) and Toss (6 J) and its higher 'static' total.

The puzzle composer, cwed, says, "In order to hold max points (2-3-10-10), you have to toss the less-than-optimum 6-J to your own crib. In a neutral position, I typically toss 2-3 from this hand. Does anybody else do this?"

While I do believe that Toss (6 J) is a better Discard Choice, it's a fairly close call, and it's easy to see why some players might be inclined to give Toss (2 3) a whirl, since it could energize our Crib and allow us to 'break out' in a close game.

But the issue we grapple with here is that this is indeed a close struggle, and thus it may be a dangerous maneuver to jeopardize our slightly advantageous Positional Advantage in a gamble that doesn't appear to have too much of an upside value.

This puzzle illustrates very well why I tell players to beware a climbing Crib Average, because often, the way you can boost your Crib Average is to ignore your Hand to such a degree that it begins to lower your actual Win Rate!

Let's Toss (6 J) and see how it goes.

After the 9 of Clubs Cut Card, we now still have Six Points in our Hand, with prospects for a slightly-lower-than-average Crib. Too bad we didn't Toss (2 3)!

Reached a nice streak of 66-in-a-row with Wordle:

Wordle 520 4/6

⬛⬛⬛🟨🟩
⬛⬛🟨⬛🟩
🟩⬛⬛⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Eolus619 says: Nice JQT..you have beaten baseballs Joe DiMaggio’s iconic record number of a 56 game consecutive hitting streak ( thought to be still unbreakable ) ..congrats!
JQT says: As a few have previously posted, it's possible to get 100% of the puzzles, or very close to this, but doing so means you will rarely, if ever, get the solution in two or three guesses. I try to solve each puzzle in as few guesses as possible, and only rarely do I resort to guesses that "blanket" cover as many letters as possible in order to keep the streak going. For example, I have solved over 66% of the puzzles in four or fewer guesses: and so, in addition to streaks, I believe that this is also a very good metric.
Eolus619 says: yep...one's approach is in the eye of the beholder..congrats again
JQT says: That's the news from Western New York State, where we are currently between storms ... and football games! REF: https://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/buffalo-snow-2022
winesteward48
835 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 10:25 AM
Pumpkin Pie or Apple Pie on Thursday? I think this is the Pumpkin Pie of keeps. After the 9 is cut I probably should have tried the apple pie but I am okay with pumpkin, just did not get any whipped cream.
cwed
1355 votes

Joined: October 2014
 
 
 
Monday 11:22 AM
I've not seen anything to convince me to toss 6-J to my crib. I think that 2-3 is the best toss and sacrifices only two points for a much better potential.
SallyAnn3 says: I heard you in my head saying I should always toss 2-3 when given a choice, but I liked the double 10 with it better
JQT says: The beauty and challenge of Cribbage is that it is not a self-correcting game: very often, accuracy can be punished; and all too often, mistakes are rewarded, such that we may "latch on" to a certain theme or idea for years and years, and sometimes even a lifetime, without being able to see a better plan or idea, one which, even when demonstrated and virtually proven, can still be rejected as being incorrect.
cwed says: JQT--it sounds like you are calling my discard a mistake. I disagree. It is a conscious decision made to help my crib. Just because you chose something else doesn't mean my toss is wrong.
Obscure
95 votes

Joined: September 2022
 
 
 
Monday 11:35 AM
Ahhh, another good sigh of relief. I've been making several tweaks and small fixes in CribEDGE's bonus system over the past week, and at one point I seriously messed it up and had to reset my work back to the previous commit. Things are now back in working order, and both yesterday AND TODAY, CribEDGE seems to agree with the most popular choice:

Keep: Two of Clubs, Three of Diamonds, Ten of Spades, Ten of Clubs
Toss: Six of Spades, Jack of Hearts
Worth: 6 / Bonus: 3
Ras2829 says: Hi Obscure: Really appreciate your commitment to develop a product from scratch. There is so much to learn as this progresses that cannot be learned from the work of others. As the result of every tweak, your knowledge of the game grows. Since you are young, given time you could become one of the real gurus in Cribbage World's future. You seem flexible enough to assume a new position without undue stress. Keep on keepin'!
Eolus619 says: Fyi obscure. The choice with the most votes can be turn out not to be the best one. As Ras says stay after it!
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Monday 11:57 AM
echo ;)
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:35 PM
I think it's a straight choice between 2-3-10-10 (6-J) and 6-10-10-J:

2-3-10-10: 6pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.41) = 9½pts

6-10-10-J: 2pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 8¾pts

Potential:

2-3-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 13xXs = 31 cuts = 67.4% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 1010 = 20 cuts.

6-10-10-J: Improves with 5555, 666, 9999, 1010, JJJ, QQQQ = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 6/8/10pts with 5555, 9999, 1010, QQQQ = 14 cuts. Plus 12 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

We're 1pt past 2nd street positional hole, as is opponent. However we're Dealer so have the positional advantage so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-10-10 will peg better.

Summary:

2-3-10-10 is better for starting value by ¾pt and has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 9-12pts compared with 14 cuts for 6-10pts for 6-10-10-J. So I'll throw the 6-J.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 2:40 PM
At 45*-45 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Our
Offense_____Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
2-3-10-10____8.39+2.52+3.39=14.30____43.7____31.8
6-10-10-J____4.43+2.48+6.75=13.66____43.0____30.1

Offense_________L6 %____L7 %
2-3-10-10________49.9____49.1
6-10-10-J________50.9____50.5

2-3-10-10 is better for expected averages by 0.64pt. and is slightly better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-J to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Monday 3:43 PM
I can understand cwed’s logic, though I respectfully disagree with the assessment that it only eschews 2 pts - yes, the 2-3 does guarantee points in the crib, but it isn’t 2 points in itself, if that makes any sense.

So I’m with the crowd here, but I give credit for someone thinking differently. I’m curious, does the logic change if the faces aren’t connected? As in you’d be more apt to hold the 23XX if it was say, TTQ?
cwed says: Jason: when I do this, I always want an open-ended shot at a double run (e.g., TTJ, JJQ). I don't usually hold this way when I need a gut cut (as in your TTQ example).
MiketheExpert says: In the long run, the actual "difference" is even closer than it might appear. Jmath, I think you are correct in that in of itself you can't just count (2-3) as 2 pts, while (6 J) is worthless, as that is not the case. So (-4) hand (+2) crib to get -2 does not necessarily work. In fact, (2 3) is MORE than 2 pts better than (6 J) in the crib (nearly 3.4 on average), while the expected HAND value remains about 4 pts apart. So, 0.6 in favour of throwing (6 J) while using offense strategy as per HAL makes sense. If you need a kabangi cut and are desperate for even BETTER results than what the averages would dictate, I can certainly see (2 3) being a viable toss. (With the 9 cut as on CHOD today, we are very likely in better shape, and it may be perfectly correct in some situations to GO for it! The numbers would suggest that it is not the BEST play at this board position, but there are certainly times it will work out in your favor!)
MiketheExpert says: There are also times where I make selections that are KNOWINGLY against what the "combined" averages will say, or against what I expect the computer to pick, for various other "qualitative" reasons rather than "computative". Plus, there are also times where it is definitely CORRECT to pick a choice which is NOT the top "calculated" selection, and W/L% must take precedence.