November 23, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
0-0*  ?
82%
4%
3%
2%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 245
scottcribAnother Raleigh tournament hand.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:58 AM
3-2-6 combo might bring four points,
Plenty of helpful cuts,
Innocuous enough discard.
Eolus619 says: James500…innocuous?…..at least you didn’t use WAQFS or VOZHD
james500 says: I wouldn't know how to!
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:59 AM
mrob2199
1435 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:03 AM
Keep the 8 point hand here-the pair of deuces to the crib is somewhat mitigated by the 3 in our hand
Goatman
2502 votes

Joined: March 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:04 AM
Start game with max points. Holding a 3 not to worried about tossing the pair of 2s. Not to bad of a cut…would like to see what the dealers crib brings.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:09 AM
Let's get off the starting blocks with some risk here. Three lead more of a defensive pegging hand here. dec
glmccuskey
4101 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:48 AM
I’ll keep the points. Nice cut.
sterno
453 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:59 AM
As my Keurig hisses away for my first cup of joe.. we have two pairs with a poison pill. Do I toss the 2-2 pair or the 2-3 to the enemy's crib. After I sip my Kirkland organic Summit Roast with real half and half, some green wisdom comes to me. The 3 is far more valuable in my hand than in the crib. Pairs away!!!
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:13 AM
First hand keeping the 8 points. Interesting if the dealer plays a 6 on our 3 lead....Bruce-a sometimes miscounted 14 hand!
Jazzselke says: Of course I'm throwing 22, look at my vote total!
Hillchem says: Haha, nicely done, Jazzselke!
SallyAnn3 says: LOLOL
Eolus619 says: you missed 11/22 by one day but i still suggest you go buy a lottery ticket!
cwed says: Quad Deuces! Nice.
MiketheExpert says: It would have been most interesting on top of 1111 votes (scottcrib) and your total 2222, someone else had a total of 666 fall on the same day! Looks like I'd come the closest, although I'm still a ways off!
MiketheExpert says: Mr mrob above, by the way has the exact same total 1111 as scottcrib. So mrob+scottcrib=Jazzselke !
jmudge
701 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:40 AM
Here's wishing everyone a safe and relaxing Thanksgiving holiday!
MiketheExpert
1122 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:14 AM
I considered only the (2 2) or (2 9) tosses. Since (2 3 6 6) has a "preferred" magic 11 combo as pone and a higher number of cuts to improve, this is the only reason why I may place this in a similar "vicinity" to starting out with the 8 (3 6 6 9) and tossing the pair of deuces. I don't think it quite cuts the mustard here, and the deuces is one of those pairs in which I'll exchange the benefit of the automatic 8 here. Although the (3 6 6 9) gets help from fewer cuts, that help may indeed be substantial and much needed. Here the 3 cut is a mixed bag as it aids us at the same time likely giving dealer an excellent crib. Speaking of recent discussions on difficult to count hands, this gives us an easy to miss 14 pts with 10 worth of fifteens if you count 'em up.
SallyAnn3
908 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:26 AM
echo....from 8 to 14..yay!
Eolus619
1342 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:26 AM
My reason is not nearly as good as Dan’s above. Games starting deal…I just tried to be aggressive ( make Colvert happy) and toss a discard that may not do deep points damage.
Eolus619 says: Just a reminder to all about pairs across the board…they can be worth just two as JQT would say..but 11/13 average more than six http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm
Eolus619 says: Todays Dan/Bruce miscounted hand puzzle …2-3-5-5-10=10 note how many ways the 5s are involved in summing to 10 and Dan has graciously provided me with a list of four card hands summing to 15. Fourteen on the list involve an ace. Here is one example….A-2-6-6=15. For education, maybe you can list the other 14
Eolus619 says: actually the other 13 since the example was one
scottcrib
1636 votes

Joined: August 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:33 AM
Sorry for the softball submission. I think some of these are trickier "in the moment" than when you take time to think about them here.
scottcrib says: Apparently I'm only half as good as Selke.
cwed says: Four Aces beat four Deuces . . . in poker!
SallyAnn3 says: no sorries! Anything that makes us think is good. It's very hard to toss most pairs that can turn into a big crib ;)
Jazzselke says: Or twice as good...
MiketheExpert says: Despite the overwhelming popularity of the keep (3 6 6 9) in the voting, my analysis almost directly correlates with RAS's statements that the 2 top choices are very close, and I don't believe at all that this is a softball submission, as so many would automatically select the 8 pts without really thinking of why it is the best answer. (The only difference is that I don't have the numbers handy or at my disposal, but my "sense" of the situation translated into the numbers (using offense strategy) makes perfect sense! :-)
Eolus619
1342 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:33 AM
Scott..to me this puzzle is a good reminder about Colvert’s full offensive throttle from the get go…
SallyAnn3 says: Bruce, this is the perfect example when using the combo-the-4-you-know counting trick. I especially loathe the 3-6-9 combos. So I know right off that the 3-3-6-6 is 8. Now add in the 5th card, the 9. So 8, plus a 15 with 6-9, another with 6-9 and another with 6-6-3. 8+2+2+2=14 :0
Eolus619 says: thx Sally..great counting tool!
SallyAnn3 says: cwed taught it to me. Really comes in handy in big tournies as I get tired and everything starts swimming in front of my eyes lol. Same with the trick that any straight that has a 6 in it is aways 9 points.
Eolus619 says: sally.. the rules …you only get to count correctly once..so any tools that help accuracy and speed should be understood ! thx again
winesteward48
835 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:13 AM
Let's start with max points. There is now a chance dealer has a ten or more crib but we are also done the board. How about 2-4-4-5 and A-2-4-8 for a couple of 4 card 15s.
Eolus619 says: winesteward48…four card fives can easily be missed..two more good examples
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:59 AM
Another pregnant 3s puzzle. I did cut a 3 but the crib is probably going to go BOOM.
SallyAnn3 says: Hey Greg. I'm the TD tonight in ACC, FYI lol
Gougie00 says: I will try to stay up, no promises. Had my head handed back to me Tuesday night.
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 11:53 AM
On Nov 10th last, Ras said look for those hands of 2-2-3-8, or 2-3-3-7(or 9). Well I couldn't find an 8, or an X-Card for that matter. So; being as it's 0-0*, away go the deuces. I will play offense, and lead the 6c, faking the flush. I do see all the remaining 4-card 15's with an Ace Bruce. Here's another one employing the deuce and *no* Ace... 2-2-3-8.
Eolus619 says: Yep. Need to pay attention when the four cards are all low in value Good post Inush
Inushtuk1 says: Yes. We must add up all the little ones.
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:40 PM
Choosing an offense strategy to include the pegging at all decision points (looking at the pegs, seeing the six cards, and seeing the starter card) and considered only discards of 2-2 or 2-9. The two are surprisingly close with less than.2 of a point difference in combined value. Will lead the 6C and take any pegs offered. BTW if choosing defense at some other point on the board, the discard would be the same.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Thanks for the last sentence. But I'm very surprised that on defense it would not be 2-3-6-6(2-9). Especially with that beautiful 3 Card Magic Eleven. Can you elaborate please?
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:23 PM
Optimum points.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:18 PM
I think it's between 3-6-6-9 (2-2), 2-3-6-6 (2-9) and 2-2-6-6 (3-9):

3-6-6-9: 8pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.38) = +1½pts

2-3-6-6: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = -¾pt

2-2-6-6: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.87) = -¾pt

Potential:

3-6-6-9: Improves with 333, 66, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/18pts with all cuts.

2-3-6-6: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 4444, 66, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/9/11/12pts with AAAA, 333, 4444, 66, 7777, 999 = 20 cuts.

2-2-6-6: Improves with AAAA, 22, 333, 5555, 66, 7777, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/12pts with AAAA, 22, 5555, 66, 7777, 999 = 19 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is 18pts so I'll play Offense and hope to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I don't think any hand will peg that well but 2-3-6-6 should peg best with a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

3-6-6-9 is best for starting value by 2¼pts and although 2-3-6-6 and 2-2-6-6 have more cuts for improvement and 19 cuts for 8/12pts for 2-2-6-6 and 20 cuts for 8-12pts with 2-3-6-6 the 8 cuts for improvement to 3-6-6-9 score 14/18pts. So I'll throw the 2-2.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:54 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
3-6-6-9____9.22+1.13+(-5.92)=4.43____28.8____24.7
2-3-6-6____7.04+1.48+(-4.23)=4.29____24.1____23.9
2-2-6-6____6.13+1.57+(-4.19)=3.51____21.6____21.8

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
3-6-6-9_______40.5____50.7
2-3-6-6_______36.2____50.0
2-2-6-6_______36.2____51.4

3-6-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.14pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and although it's worse for Loss %s I'll select 2-2 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Pts.
9______________________1.24
6______________________1.20
3______________________1.00
MiketheExpert says: I am still going with the majority assessment as far as the lead is concerned, and I will lead the 6c and not the 9 here.
scottcrib says: If we're playing offense, then I agree with the 6 lead.
Inushtuk1 says: The 9 lead? How does that work people?
MiketheExpert says: I suppose if dealer happens to hold a hand of all faces, then you'd get your pair of 6's in for 31-4, whereas the 6 lead would only get you a 31-2. It is not my cup of tea. I'd prefer to lead the 6 which could give me a triple (although this does risk the "case" 6 response of 12), but also would bring the count to 18, and if dealer then throws down an X, I've scored another 31-2. (Maybe dealer has the 6-Q-Q-Q we were dealt the other day, and a good question would be, would he "pair" my 6 lead as pone from this hand :)
MiketheExpert says: I also wouldn't mind his (7 8) toss into the crib after I threw the pair of 2's with a 3 cut :)!
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Mike.
RGM
899 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:51 PM