November 24, 2022

*** This hand was suggested by James500
88-95*  ?
43%
25%
14%
7%
6%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 227
james500
3786 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Thursday 3:45 AM
All cuts are helpful, and the discard should be safer than 6-8 with Dealer in a borderline position. Is it worth the reduction of two points though?
Eolus619 says: James500….my thinking is..counting first from 111+ makes little difference if current dealer is not then under 117 after the end of next hand …thought provoking board position puzzle..well done
wasa
2883 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Thursday 5:49 AM
Balk the crib....
Gougie00
5589 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 6:33 AM
Trying to throw a brick in the crib.

Happy Thanksgiving.
Newabla says: Likening your thinking with three card eleven
dec
6212 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 6:47 AM
My opinion on a discard. positional cribbage 101. dec
Eolus619
1206 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Thursday 7:40 AM
Spitis buoyed by England’s six goal game in the WC, James500 sends bit of a sticky wicket today from across the pond. Nice puzzle . The pegs tell the tale as what to do. Trying to avoid 114-121*. Balk the crib. Prefer keeping the one gap 8-10 here and cut help from 13/13 ranks. For a hand counting fyi ….now a deuce cut adds points to this keep can be easily overlooked.
Eolus619 says: meant spirits buoyed ..yikes
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. Here's one I missed recently. Opponent's crib was (2-4). I tossed him (6-6). The cut was a 3. I was so proud of myself for seeing all 3 15's that I forgot about the run. LOL. Am I the only one that does this from time to time?
Eolus619 says: Hi Inush..nope i have had misses like that too…have to stay disciplined with the sequence of the counting..15/2, pairs and runs ..then flush and Jack
Inushtuk1
1343 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Thursday 7:46 AM
I kept the 4 smallest cards for pegging. This hand also improves on all cuts. there are a lot of 0-2 points cribs with this toss. But it's an all or nothing toss. Probably should have tossed (6-Q), and kept the 3-Card Eleven. Next time. Learning lesson.
Inushtuk1 says: Meant (8-Q), for the eleven.
Inushtuk1 says: Of course I have a Magic Eleven also, and will lead the 4. And I have *two* gappers. This should be better for average hand, and expected average. Not sure if it's worth the (10-Q though. It will be interesting to hear from Hal, and Ras.
MiketheExpert says: This would certainly by my 2nd place choice, and I can see it possibly being in 1st place with HAL and RAS, due to the all-cut hand improvement. However, a lot of the improvement is only 2 pts, so is the (10 Q) in comparison to the (6 8) worth it would probably make the difference.
Ras2829 says: HiInushtuk1: It seems to me at hole 88, have got to retain the four points, and need some help from the starter card. If were at hole 92, for example would prefer to hold the cards with pegging value and would have settled for the hand you've chosen. Love the 10-Q discard as it is among the 6/91 combinations that score 0-2 points more than 40% of the time the (40.972% to be exact based on 1,440 tosses to opponent).
horus93
1163 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Thursday 9:02 AM
This position is offensive.
MiketheExpert says: Strangely enough, you've got the defensive specialist (me) on your side today, while most of the "aggressors" today have chosen the balk your crib option :-)
winesteward48
714 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Thursday 9:52 AM
I think I got the short side of the wishbone. Trying to make some kind of run and avoid one in the crib. I think I may like A-4-6-8 better now.
Andy (muesli64)
2182 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Thursday 9:54 AM
6 - Q looks much the best.
MiketheExpert
985 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Thursday 9:56 AM
Very difficult board position. I feel I have to throw (6 8) while keeping the starting 4 here, though inherently the toss is risky, and it is not a very good hand with dealer right at hole 95. I just cannot afford to sacrifice any hand potential. The cut doesn't do me any good, so my hopes are very small. I will need to take any point/peg I can get. I'm going to start by leading the A, as I believe dealer will be very protective, and will likely not try to PAIR the lead even if he has one, at the same time getting rid of a "danger" card on the very first play. Hopefully can nab some pegging points and I need some very good luck and a prayer on the following deal.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Mike. If Dealer won't pair the Ace lead, why not lead the 4? Why would s/he be more likely to pair the 4?
MiketheExpert says: Hi Mike. I consider the A more aggressive of a lead. If dealer is not going to pair my lead, I would rather him pair the 4 after A-X-4-4, rather than the A after 4-X-A-A, as I am not a fan of having to play the face card with a count of 16. I notice that HAL has indeed lead the 4, but I don't agree with the defense strategy after the cut which offers no help. In my opinion, it is now desperation offense and you need to take any and all pegs that you can,
MiketheExpert says: Hmmm...a rare 2-day absence from JQT? Disappeared over the US Thanksgiving Holiday maybe? Of course up here in Canada, nothing fancy but the World Cup going on!
Inushtuk1 says: Go Canada, on Sunday.
bbaer1 says: With 66” of snow, I think JQT is up over his neck with things to do. Congrats to Buffalo on their close win over Detroit, there is some other football going on. And congrats to Detroit for being most gracious hosts.
Coeurdelion
5483 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Thursday 3:01 PM
I think it's between A-4-10-Q (6-8), A-4-6-8 (10-Q) and A-6-8-10 (4-Q):

A-4-10-Q: 4pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = -1½pts

A-4-6-8: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.61) = -2½pts

A-6-8-10: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.46) = -2½pts

Potential:

A-4-10-Q: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/9/10pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 20 cuts.

A-4-6-8: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888 = 20 cuts.

A-6-8-10: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999, 101010 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/7pts with AAA, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

Opponent is dealing from 1pt short of 4th street positional hole while we're behind at 88pts. If we score the average 10pts we should be dealing from 98pts next hand. We just need to keep opponent short of 111pts so hopefully they won't score out first next hand. So I'll; play cautious offense

Pegging:

A-4-6-8 should peg best with two low cards and two middle cards including a 3-card magic eleven.

Summary:

A-4-10-Q is best for starting value by 1pt over the other two but A-4-6-8 has guaranteed improvement and 20 cuts for 6/7pts. Plus it should peg best so I'll throw 10-Q.
HalscribCLX
5194 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Thursday 3:12 PM
At 88-95* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W2 %___W3 %
A-4-10-Q___6.26+(-2.87)+(-5.50)=(-2.11)___5.9____24.9
A-4-8-10___4.48+(-2.52)+(-4.24)=(-2.28)___3.4____22.9
A-4-6-8____5.04+(-2.48)+(-4.90)=(-2.34)___5.5____25.2

Defense________L2 %____L3 %
A-4-10-Q________43.8____69.9
A-4-8-10________39.5____72.8
A-4-6-8_________43.7____69.8

A-4-10-Q is best for expected averages by 0.17pt. and it is very slightly better than A-4-6-8 for Win %s although A-4-6-8 is very slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-8 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead the 4 and play Defense:

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
4______________________(-2.11)
A______________________(-2.27)
Q______________________(-2.51)
10_____________________(-2.59)
Ras2829 says: Sorry at hole 88 with dealer at 95, see no reason to choose defense. Optimal is even too conservative an approach and especially so after seeing the starter card deuce. RAS' choice is offense since retained A-4-X-X. Agree with leading the four from these cards and will grab any pegs offered. Had I retained A-4-6-8, would have led the A and pegged aggressively. That's my take on it.
BigMac
88 votes

Joined: August 2022
 
 
 
Thursday 3:19 PM
I hate playing defense here because I need the points, but my position after the smoke has cleared is a mute point if I've allowed my opponent an easy opportunity to go out next hand. First priority is keeping my opponent from going out, then I'll worry about getting myself further down the board. So defense it is. Q - 6 into the crib.
Ras2829 says: Hi BigMac: Always nice to hear a new voice in the choir. Welcome aboard on this fast-moving train. Hang on and enjoy the ride!