November 26, 2022
65% 65% | |||||
16% 16% | |||||
9% 9% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
2% 2% | |||||
Total votes: 229 |
Joined: June 2013 (4108 votes) Saturday 3:19 AM
Kept the King to escape getting trapped in a run,
Fewer 10s left in circulation, so *should* be safer to play during the pegging, Hopefully can respond to the lead with the 9, so that I am left with no consecutively ranked cards. Eolus619 says: James500…your puzzle may very well teach me the value of the flush today. As to soccer….never would have thought England/USA would end 0-0. Now a chance both teams advance. james500 says: Indeed. Two motivated opponents face us though. Wales would love to crush England's dreams, and I'm sure Iran would enjoy defeating, "The great Satan". https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Satan |
Joined: April 2008 (6571 votes) Saturday 4:13 AM
I can understand the pegging flexibility on keeping the flush. I would prefer to keep eight points here and more likely we would end up with two points in the crib figuring we might get two points in pegging. Yes, playing the nine after a lead might be enough to break up any threats by our opponent. dec |
Joined: April 2021 (1266 votes) Saturday 4:31 AM
Only 11 pts out, I'm not worried about having to keep the double run. With 7 starting pts, a guaranteed pegging point, and a crib (even with a poor toss of 7 10), I really don't have to worry about not counting out. Thus, it is more important to keep the safety of our K, rather than risk getting trapped on the pegging with our run with pone pretty close at hole 110. I wouldn't pair a 15 or mid-card lead. Our 10 and K both offer relative safety as cards which pone is less likely to score on. Try to avoid any run possibilities - even giving up a pair on pegging sequence could spell the end. MiketheExpert says: This is one of those situations where the flush offers us a much safer distribution, with a GOOD ENOUGH starting flush - we should take advantage of it. MiketheExpert says: If pone leads a 6 here, I would play the 10 next, and NOT the 9 to take 15-2, breaking the 8-9-10 run while leaving the separation of the K in hand. If she is leading the 6, very likely she is looking for a scoring response from us so she can take advantage -- she may need every single point she can get. Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: Excellent post - great insight - explained in a way that others can grasp readily. |
Joined: October 2007 (3277 votes) Saturday 4:38 AM
Need dud cards here, try to minimize pone's pegging ability. Rely on the 7/8 in the crib to get me out. MiketheExpert says: Sorry, not going so far as to only keep 2pts :) |
Joined: March 2008 (5924 votes) Saturday 4:43 AM
Keeping the 8 sure points. No low cards to peg with. Play off to any lead. |
Joined: June 2020 (1524 votes) Saturday 4:48 AM
I am going to start with eight. 7-K is a low value crib discard but it should get me at least two points. Add the one peg point for the dealer and I sum to eleven and out |
Joined: April 2011 (4280 votes) Saturday 4:57 AM
The double run could be a pegging liability as Mike the Expert explained above. |
Joined: March 2009 (2709 votes) Saturday 6:23 AM
Overall lousy pegging cards, this configuration about the best we can do, holding 7 points. Only need 3 between pegging and any cut help. |
Joined: February 2009 (1530 votes) Saturday 6:47 AM
Like the flush for the pegging flexibility here |
Joined: September 2022 (95 votes) Saturday 8:05 AM
I've been on vacation with family for Thanksgiving for the past few days. I got the chance to run today's hand through both CribEDGE and my dad! Today, they agreed:
Keep: Eight of Hearts, Nine of Hearts, Ten of Clubs, Ten of Hearts Toss: Seven of Clubs, King of Hearts Worth: 8 / Bonus: 2 |
Joined: January 2021 (1386 votes) Saturday 8:06 AM
I need to survive to count my hand/crib and would rather take my chances with the more spread out flush than the double run. |
Joined: December 2020 (525 votes) Saturday 8:11 AM
Coming late to the party.... I chose the safety of the double run vs the flush (and a reluctance to break double runs). Mmmmm the commentary regarding the K of H I had not previously leaned in that direction.
Go USA, get a win on Tuesday |
Joined: July 2016 (1657 votes) Saturday 8:27 AM
I like the flush. Go Canada tomorrow. Hillchem says: Ditto
They looked excellent against Belgium. Hopefully they can muster the same intensity. Inushtuk1 says: Yes sir. |
Joined: April 2021 (957 votes) Saturday 11:01 AM
The flush seems to be a safer route to winning. |
Joined: October 2007 (5759 votes) Saturday 2:51 PM
I think we must keep the most Defensive pegging hand which I think is 9-10-10-K. If opponent doesn't hold out then I don't think we'll have a problem scoring 11pts with 7-8 in the crib. However the flush will also peg well defensively and starts with 7pts. Even so I think I favor the 7-8 to our crib. Eolus619 says: hmmmmm..Coe you can start with only two...not me though.all the best |
Joined: February 2008 (5488 votes) Saturday 3:01 PM
At 110*-110 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Net Optimal____Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %___Loss % 8-9-10-10___9.33+0.57+3.15=13.04____63.1____36.9 8-9-10-K____8.80+0.65+2.99=12.45____60.2____39.8 7-8-9-K_____6.72+0.70+4.59=12.00____58.9____41.1 7-8-9-10C___7.72+0.74+2.69=11.15____60.3____39.7 9-10-10-K___4.04+0.20+6.61=10.85____61.5____38.5 7-8-10-10___5.76+0.41+3.08= 9.25____47.4____39.7 8-9-10-10 is best for expected averages by 0.59pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s over 9-10-10-K. So I'll select 7-K to discard. After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead. MiketheExpert says: Sorry but I'm choosing Defense strategy all day here, and not optimal..... |
SallyAnn3
Joined: March 2020 (1053 votes) Sunday 5:40 PM
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