Thursday 4:23 AM

Very interesting puzzle today especially in light of the respective positions-we need a good hand -preferably with a flexible defensive pegging hand-especially if we collect a helpful cut-this hold enables us to safely play off any potential pone lead-and especially avoid a potentially disastrous 4 lead if we kept 5667

   

Thursday 4:36 AM

Don’t like the 9Q for my crib so it’s the flush for my.

   

Thursday 4:47 AM

Yesterday the score was closer, yet we had a weaker Relative Position; today we are trailing, but since we are Two Points beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70, this enables us to play more aggressively.

And most importantly: The CARDS are good, and appear to almost dictate that we push forward and play Offense!

Toss (9 Q) leaves us with a splendid Double Run, but as an inveterate Cribbage Player, it's almost sad to say that I derive much of my self-worth from my Crib Average.

Thus, in addition to Toss (9 Q), this means either Toss (5 6) or Toss (5 Q), which are nearly equals in our Crib. But I believe we get the most BANG for our BUCK if we retain the PAIR of 6 Cards together, so let's Toss (5 Q).

After the Ace of Hearts Cut, we now still have Six Points in our Hand, with prospects for an Average Crib, which is sad: we were hoping for better.

   

Thursday 5:12 AM

What's card that won't help regardless? Trying to prove how smart I am tossing face-5, but it doesn't matter much. Way behind, so attack.

Winter has arrived in northern Massachusetts. It's below freezing, dark and bleak

   

Thursday 5:25 AM

   

Thursday 5:36 AM

Wrong heart was desiring a five here. dec

   

Thursday 5:39 AM

Agree with Rob today. At this position, I like having a flexible pegging hand with the Q to defensively escape any undesirable run sequences. We want to keep pone as far back from 4th street position as possible. The flush should provide good camouflage during the pegging. 5-6 (suited to boot) is a top 5 offensive discard.

   

Thursday 5:44 AM

It almost always pays to flush. 5-6 a top discard to my crib.

   

Thursday 6:35 AM

Double run is the better pegger, but that is outweighed by the value of 5q vs 9q in the crib. We have to risk an offensive strategy with these cards at this rp, aiming to get beyond 86.

   

Thursday 6:42 AM

CONGRATS to eolus/Bruce for his SILVER finish in ACC last night. I believe that is the first time he's placed!

   

Thursday 6:45 AM

Delicate position requiring both offense and defense if possible, as first articulated by Rob. Suited 679Q provides the better defensive versatility than 6679. And 56 a strong discard to our crib.

   

Thursday 6:49 AM

We need a good scoring result, at the same time we need to be very careful of pone's position, so trying to navigate our need for both points and defense is to me one of the trickiest positions to be in this late in the game. The double run is not good defensively, at the same time throws a balking (9 Q) in our crib, and thus is the least appealing choice to me here. The flush throws a strong (5 6) into the crib, and keeps a better defensive flush, however sacrifices TOO much potential hand strength. I believe the best option is to throw (5 Q) and still keep the nice potential GROWTH of (6 6 7 9), and the opportunistic pegging potential. The only detractor is the risk factor of having to give up pegs in order for a high score here, and certainly the A cut is a major disappointment. I think it is likely we won't be able to score enough combined to support the likes of pone reaching hole 96 or beyond, and so trying to hold him back becomes our "best" of a bad situation strategy.

   

Thursday 8:26 AM

Board position..yikes…98*-110…i think it will be the flush today with a 5-6 toss which is ranked #3 in value under Ras’s two star ratings. Thought provoking puzzle as it requires an answer that propels current dealer to 98* while holding Pone to under 110. I should have played better earlier.

   

Thursday 9:09 AM

I chose the (5-Q) as well. Perhaps the flush would have been better for defensive pegging. But perhaps I can fake a flush.

   

Thursday 10:04 AM

Every thought expressed here was going through my head. Finally selected the double run for starting points, but, could have easily gone in a different direction depending of the phase of the moon.

   

Thursday 11:24 AM

The pegs tell me, the cards tell me, the starter card tells me OFFENSE. Holding these four and discarding the 5-Q is the best choice this day. Just keeping the double run would be the second choice. The flush weighs in at #3 in combined values. Think win/loss % will also favor the 5-Q discard though will defer to HalscribCLX on those matters. Would pair a six lead and 15-2 a 9 lead; otherwise, would play off the lead. Will pair along the way if count is high enough to avoid a triple.

   

Thursday 12:01 PM

Forgot to look at the hand yesterday! Very busy here at school. I'm now finished with two final projects, and beginning on two more, whilst also studying for four final exams. Hoo boy. Anywho, here's CribEDGE's output for today:

Keep: Six of Clubs, Six of Hearts, Seven of Hearts, Nine of Hearts
Toss: Five of Clubs, Queen of Hearts
Worth: 6 / Bonus: 10

That's a nice bonus. The bot really likes this choice. Several good choices today, especially given whether or not the hand you chose is helped by the turn card or not. CribEDGE typically doesn't bank too much on the turn card, as far as I can tell, so I'm not surprised it chose this hand.

I'd feel confident calling this CribEDGE's 7th sensible choice in a row. Maybe could have been the 8th if I hadn't skipped yesterday's hand. Oh well.

   

Thursday 1:45 PM

I'm -3; and, opponent +6 to targets.(arguaably) my hand & crib aren't lookin' very helpful. Toss 5,Q.

   

Thursday 1:57 PM

Kept the chance at a kabangi.

   

Thursday 3:28 PM

I think it's between 6H-7-9-Q (5-6C), 6-6-7-9 (5-Q) and 5-6-6-7 (9-Q):

6H-7-9-Q: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

6-6-7-9: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 12½pts

5-6-6-7: 8pts + 3pts (Schell: 2.99) = 11pts

Potential:

6H-7-9-Q: Improves with 2222, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 999, QQQ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 10/11/12pts with 555, 66, 8888, 999 = 12 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46= 50.0% up to 10/12/16pts with 2222, 555, 66, 8888, 999 = 16 cuts.

5-6-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/15/16pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 66, 777, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts.

Position:

We're 2pts past 3rd street positional hole and opponent needs 12pts to reach 4th street positional hole. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think the flush will peg best.

Summary:

6H-7-9-Q and 6-6-7-9 are best for starting value by 1½pts over 5-6-6-7 but 5-6-6-7 has many more cuts for improvement and 24 cuts for 12-16pts. Although 5-6-6-7 is not ideal for Defensive pegging I think it will more than make up for the 1½pts and the 0.19pt for the heart cut potential for the flush. So I'll toss the 9-Q.

   

Thursday 3:31 PM

At 72*-84 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
6-6-7-9_____8.57+(-2.15)+6.58=13.00____22.3____35.6
5-6-6-7____11.83+(-2.17)+2.77=12.43____21.0____34.9
6H-7-9-Q____7.91+(-2.22)+6.35=12.04____17.8____31.7

Defense_______L3 %____L4 %
6-6-7-9________42.8____53.2
5-6-6-7________44.4____54.3
6H-7-9-Q_______44.6____58.6

6-6-7-9 is best for expected averages by 0.57pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the AH cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).

   

Thursday 7:09 PM

Great comments! Turning the 8 of Hearts would have been fun to listen to people justify their choices...