January 21, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
45*-45  ?
68%
14%
10%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 224
Gougie00Toss the 2-3 or the 7-8? I hate breaking up that 2-3-3 but the opponent rarely helps the 7-8. Let's see what the experts say.
james500
3477 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 3:02 AM
No expert, but I'd choose 2-3d. 8-8 did catch my eye though.
dec
5891 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 4:15 AM
Like the commercial says I play one only in here. My second option would have been the 8-8. Good thing it is our crib here. Defense off the lead. dec
Eolus619 says: Morning dec…what would be your reply to a lead of 6,7, or 9…please also confirm you would pair an 8. thx
dec says: 6 - 8 , 7 - 8 , 8 - 8 , 9 - 7 , a three response would worry me. dec
Eolus619 says: thanks dec..very helpful
Ras2829 says: Hi dec: Your response to how to reply to mid-card lead was wonderful. It took me decades to learn what you expressed above. Thanks so much for sharing and hope many gain because of that.
Jazzselke
2283 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 5:33 AM
If we kept 233 it would be with the 7, and a pair of eights in the crib often disappoints, especially when we hold a seven. So goodbye trusty 23, and we are still open-ended for a 12 hand.
horus93
860 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 5:42 AM
2-3 to own crib is always the right answer on dailycribbagehand. In all seriousness, this puzzle comes down to counting the points: 23 is always worth at least 2 and averages 7 points, yaddayaddayadda we hear it every week.

Gougie raises the question of breaking up 233. 23 is such a powerful toss that it is often worth breaking it up even when it seems well-placed in the hand. I should know this well by now, having miscalculated it many times over my course of posting here.

Offense at +3/-14. Opponent has a 13 point surplus to win in n+1 counts, so defense is futile.
Eolus619 says: morning horus..please remind me again of the par holes you use to compute +/- thx
horus93 says: Hi eiolus, as far as I can see average cycle length is 26 points on fourth street and 26.4 before that, assuming good players. That gives dealer pars of 95, 69, 42, 16 and -11, and pone pars at 111 and ten pts behind dealer’s.
Eolus619 says: thank you…
glmccuskey
3654 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Saturday 5:46 AM
2-3 for me.
Donj
673 votes

Joined: January 2018

 
 
 
Saturday 5:46 AM
Eolus619 says: Donj…...nice to see a new commenter..welcome…add your input…all views contribute here. None of us can predict the cut card so we are all in this together!
JQT
3713 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:47 AM
'Tie Score While Dealing on the Middle of Second Street' could be the title of today's All RED puzzle.

We have two favorable clusters that include 2-3-3 and 7-8-8, and yet two of these six cards must be deployed to serve in our Crib.

Whether we Toss (2 3) or Toss (7 8), either choice leaves a Magic Eleven in our Hand in the form of 3-8, but if we Toss (2 3), we can begin with a few Fifteens in our Hand. In Cribbage, we should NOT trade away REAL POINTS in a search for HOPEFUL POINTS!

What we do NOT want to do with such an arrangement is either Toss (3 3) or Toss (8 8). Toss (3 3) may tempt some players, because it's a fairly strong discard, but we have two much better choices here!

Therefore, since the 7-8-8 cluster 'energizes' our Hand, I see nothing that comes close to the power of Toss (2 3) today.

After the Ten "T" Card Cut, we have Six Points in our Hand, with prospects for a good Crib.

Wordle 581 5/6 (No, "ZZYZX" was not my Starting Word!)

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⬛🟩🟩⬛⬛
🟩🟨⬛⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Inushtuk1
1037 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 6:48 AM
Suited (2-3). Two Card Magic Eleven, and three hearts to fake a flush. I'll take that all day long. No improvement in the hand after the cut, but good prospects for the crib. Still I'll play offense to the lead.
Eolus619 says: Mike…morning..using yours ..or is it as Schell’s …provide me with the +/- of this board position…thx
Inushtuk1 says: Not mine. Schell’s is +1/-15. So both Horus and I are on offense before we see the cards. I’m a bit disappointed with the hand score after the cut. Even assuming the Crib average of 7, I am at 59 if I peg only the obligatory point. And no guarantee I have 7 in my Crib. So it’s still offense after the cut. Would like to be at 60 bare minimum. That’s my story anyway.
Eolus619 says: Thx Mike!!!
Gougie00
5271 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 6:49 AM
Wondering if 7-8 or 8-8 is really the better toss. I tossed 2-3 here and in my actual game thinking this would be a nice puzzle for CHOD.

About 3 inches of slush outside and my cat took a look and decided to stay inside.
sterno says: nice puzzle..
mrob2199
1167 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 7:00 AM
Dan says it all today-88 to the crib is weakened by our hold of a 7-2-3 should fare quite well
Eolus619
894 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 7:20 AM
Very informative comments above. I can only add that this is also a lesson in the crib is an extension of the hand. With the 2-3 in the crib all ranks help in some way.
sterno
190 votes

Joined: December 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 7:26 AM
Nice two pair puzzle from Gougie00 to tackle with a fresh cup of joe (with half and half). Both pairs have the potential for a double run.

Both pairs have "benefits" that will or can generate additional points.

I chose to keep the 7-8-8 and break up the pair of threes to end up with a 5 tucked in the crib. I tossed the 2-3 of diamonds in the forlorn hope of a crib flush....
The cut gives me 2 points in the crib...
Eolus619 says: hello Sterno..likely even more points in the crib as these are the top ten most frequent Pone discards..K-10…K-9…A-Q…A-K…Q-7…Q-8…2-9…A-3…K-6 & K-7…as can be seen..all add immediate points
JQT says: Imagine how nice it would be if we could take every possible Cribbage Discard, and look at what it actually produces in terms of Crib Points based upon millions upon millions of hands! Then we would have an "Expected Average" to rate each and every discard for both Pone and Dealer! And lo and behold: That's EXACTLY how Crib Discard TABLES are constructed. Therefore, we can use those tables as our "Best Estimate" of what ANY Cribbage Discard will produce. Tables have been created over the decades by Craig Hessel, DeLynn Colvert, Bruce Bowman, etc., and composite tables have been formed by Michael Schell and implemented by Hal Mueller (Halscrib, proprietary). And last but certainly not least, ACC Hall-of-Fame recipient, our very own George "RAS" Rasmussen here on "Hand of the Day," who spent over a decade collecting REAL Crib Values from high-level, ACTUAL played games, created the finest "Empirical Crib Data Chart" and shares it freely. Therefore, if you want the very best estimate of just how many points ANY Cribbage Discard will produce on EITHER SIDE of the board, memorize and use these tables! You can see the Schell Composite Data Crib Discard Tables on Michael Schell's excellent site: http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Thanks for including me among such illustrious cribbage icons.
jmudge
545 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 10:04 AM
Following the crowd today (evidently).
winesteward48
433 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 10:42 AM
Can't pass up putting 2-3 in the crib. Suited of course.
Ras2829
4714 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 11:30 AM
Am choosing offense to include the pegging as n/d is shoulder to shoulder. Nothing to defend - move down the board. Have a magic 16 and 2-card 11; both lend themselves to peg avoidance. The 2-3 is such a powerhouse in the crib that it matters not the choice of strategy. For those who may not know here are the numbers for 2-3 discard to own crib: 2-3 7.135 (2,662) scores two points 5.522%, 3-7 43.164%, 8-11 38.129%, and tallies 12 or more 13.185%. Those are very impressive numbers. Only 5-5 does better. They score even more on the other side of the board.
Ras2829 says: Of the 91 discards 2-3 is 2/91 as dealer.
Ras2829 says: "to peg avoidance" above should be followed by "or scoring pegs". Two-card 11's or sweet 16"s can be applied to avoid or score pegs dependent on strategy choice of dealer.
Ras2829 says: BTW exercise caution on the lead as it is a biased presentation. That means pairing an 8 rather than scoring 15-2 with the 7 and avoid pairing a trey.
LoneStarPegger
777 votes

Joined: January 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 12:37 PM
Ditto
MiketheExpert
671 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 12:54 PM
It's all been said above......
Coeurdelion
5172 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 2:05 PM
I'll compare 3H-7-8-8 (2-3D) and 2-3-3-7 (8-8):

3H-7-8-8: 6pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 12¾pts

2-3-3-7: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 9¾pts

Potential:

3H-7-8-8: Improves with 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12pts with 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 13 cuts.

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 16xXs = 36 cuts.

Position:

We're both at 1pt past 2nd street positional hole and Pone is 15pts short of where they would like to be. So I'll play a cautious offense.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-3-7 will peg better than 3H-7-8-8 with 3 low cards and a middle card.

Summary:

3H-7-8-8 is better for starting value by 3pts but 2-3-3-7 has guaranteed improvement and 36 cuts for 8-12pts plus it should peg better. 3H-7-8-8 has 13 cuts for 12pts while 2-3-3-7 has 10 cuts for 10/12pts. Will 2-3-3-7 catch up the 3pts? I think it may so I'll throw the 8-8.
HalscribCLX
4889 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 2:10 PM
At 45*-45 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
3H-7-8-8___8.30+2.65+6.86=17.81____22.0____52.7
2-3-3-7____8.06+3.48+5.10=16.67____17.1____44.7
2-7-8-8____8.35+2.50+5.49=16.34____19.0____47.8

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
3H-7-8-8_______7.6_____18.6
2-3-3-7_______10.4_____26.1
2-7-8-8________7.7_____21.3

3H-7-8-8 is best for expected averages by 1.14pts and is considerably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select the suited 2-3 to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.