January 22, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by joekayak
30-22*  ?
80%
6%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Total votes: 243
joekayakWas tempted to throw 7-8. Was tempted to phone-a-friend. Be a friend and tell me what to do.
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:02 AM
9 points gets me close to hole 43. Lead the 5 and hopefully score 25/2.
24hrb says: I was also thinking, “press to that next par hole no matter what”. It’s early days leaving 1st Street. Taking the advice of many here to not look back, just adjust to the next position on the board for advantage.
Eolus619 says: Sort of wedging myself in on James500’s thread..he definitely is quite capable to speak on his own behalf…just my $.02 ..take a pencil and paper and noodle out some scores above par hole 70..you will see there are a few scenarios where being first to deal in CPZ#3 still puts dealer at an actual disadvantage….here is one to jump start your analysis..62-69*…72*- 85…98*- 111. No doubt it is best to try to have the deck first in a CPZ..but be aware of Pones score too..good card luck!
james500 says: Hi both, hope all's well with you. Thanks for taking the time to respond to my post.
glmccuskey
4102 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 3:27 AM
Keeping max points in these positions
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:19 AM
Leading the Dealer by Eight Holes, we are Pone at Hole 30, yet we need Fourteen Points, or Four above average, to reach the Second Street Par Hole 44.

It seems unwise to defend as we are ahead, and Keep (5 7 8 J) and Toss (Q K) only allows us to begin with Four Points.

Meanwhile, if we Keep (5 J Q K) and Toss (7 8), we start with Nine Points!

Let's Toss (7 8) and say hello to Second Street!

After the Trey of Hearts Cut, we still have Nine Points. Let's lead our 5 Card.

I only attended a few concerts in my life due to my health, but the first one was at the Niagara Falls Convention Center in Feb 1975 to see Jethro Tull.

Ian Anderson, the front leader of the group, is still living and still performing! And Jethro Tull was supposedly the name of a 17th century agriculturist, writer, and inventor.

It's possible that Tull played Noddy or Cribbage, as he was born in 1674, just thirty-three years after the early demise of our own Sir John Suckling.

"Thick as a Brick" (1972): https://youtu.be/ldXdnZtTWp8

Wordle 582 4/6 (had to sneak up on this one)

⬛🟨🟨⬛⬛
⬛🟩🟩🟩⬛
⬛⬛🟨⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: When you're contemplating Toss (7 8), Toss (5 6), or Toss (5 X) in Cribbage, here is how the Secret Cribbage Society Manual states that one should handle it: Before discarding (7 8), (5 6), (4 5), (5 X), etc., into your Opponent's Crib, first you shall inquire, "Did you say your daughter was twenty-four?" This means "Will you split the contents of the 'Twenty-Four-Crib Jar' with me if you get a Crib of Twenty-Four Points at the completion of this deal?" If your Opponent says, "Yes indeed, she is twenty-four!" then it means "Yes, we'll split it in the parking lot after the tournament!" but if he says, "No, none of my daughters are twenty-four" then the proceeds, if they do occur, will NOT be split. 💰
Inushtuk1 says: Lol
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:53 AM
Keep + 7 or + 4. I will go with the + 7. dec
Eolus619 says: Congrats on ecribbage ACC GR gold yesterday dec..as you said..you were just representing!
Eolus619 says: btw…dec did you see Ras’s late comment to you he posted yesterday in your thread
Ras2829 says: Hi dec: In regard to your comments yesterday regarding dealer response to mid card lead, playing the 8 on a six-lead works so amazingly well as the 6 is led from many hands (3-6-6-9, 4-6-6-9, 6-6-6-9, 6-6-9-9, 6-9-10-J) or similar. The lead of the 6 is usually an indication that n/d does not have cards that fit between 6/9. So, playing an 8 on n/d 6 spot places maximum pressure on n/d hand and leads to risk-free pegging in most cases for dealer. Thanks again for sharing!
dec says: Thank you for those comments. I like all thoughts on pegging whether it comes from a defensive or offensive stance. I can only hope to learn more from your expertise. Easy to learn harder to master. dec
Inushtuk1 says: Hi gentlemen. so would you prefer the 8 response to a 6 lead over the K, or Q response?
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 5:16 AM
Agree 100% with a hand that gives us a reasonable chance to achieve our next position of Holes 43-46.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 5:40 AM
The position, in shorthand, is -2/+6, which on the face of it suggests offense. But dealer’s six point surplus is not secure, and we have a 24 point surplus to win in n+1 counts if he can be held short of his next par of 32. This is certainly achievable – remember that average scoring in cribbage is unusual, most hands being above or below average.

So the question is whether I should “burn my bridges” and toss 78, making a win in n+1 unlikely, but helping me to reach 42, or at least approach it, throwing myself into a shaky offensive position that could well last the whole game, (and could well lose that game)… or play it safe and toss a balk.

And besides pure positional considerations, I have to consider how early it is, which ought to somewhat push me toward best expected averages over positional considerations. The problem with that reasoning is that this hand is extreme, and I’m forced to play this either very offensively or very defensively. There is no goldilocks toss here, we have to choose between swinging for the rafters or cowering in the corner.

Defense in cribbage is difficult. You can only influence your opponent’s pegging (as dealer) or pegging and crib (a pone). But the hand, which is totally out of your control, is where half or most of the points are going to be. It’s like being in a boxing match where you can only hit the other person in the thigh. Therefore, in borderline cases like this early in the game, I favor offense. Defensive tosses are just worth less, absolutely speaking, than good hands, and are not as reliable a way to control the game. As strong as 8K or QK are as balks (and fwiw would favor QK with these cards), a balk is only worth so much, and 7-8 is frequently six points or less.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 5:40 AM
Curling my nose and tossing the dangerous 78.
sterno says: Great comment and details below.
Eolus619
1343 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 6:54 AM
A good lesson in relative position vs. board position…Pone , while ahead, is actually in need of being +4 to the cycle average to be dealing first above 111. One can hear Gougie00 quoting the late Al Miller…you can play defense into a close loss. Toss the 7-8 & start with nine.
Gougie00 says: 2 other Al Miller adages - Don't take points unless you need them and don't give your opponent points in the crib unless you need to. Al had the habit of picking up his 6 cards, and tossing 2 into the crib a second later. The other Al Miller pearl of wisdom was discard quickly so the opponent thinks you have a good hand.
sterno says: you can play defense into a close loss.... excellent quote...
Eolus619 says: Thx Gougie00 ..the most effective advice, in life or cribbage , often comes in two sentences or less!
sterno
453 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 7:39 AM
Great puzzle and I have backed into the same corner as the herd, FOR THIS SITE I tossed the 7-8. Statistically and competitively it is the best play.

However, if this was a causal game with the Chicago Gang I could not do this. J-K would go because as a matter of principle .... I only give the gang zero, zip nada.....
Gougie00 says: Begs the question of how many games does the Chicago Gang lose by 5 points or less?
sterno says: The “Chicago Gang” is a motley collection of old friends who met during their freshman and sophomore years in the late 70’s. We grew up in the suburbs of Chicago. We refer to each other by the color assigned to their armies in the board game “Risk”; aka Green, Red, Pink, Green and Black (your humble servant). We are proud anachronistic luddites. We have been playing cribbage against each other since them. We are very competitive. Winning at cribbage is important since we have an archive of the cribbage games won or lost for 35 years. We are never shy of reminding each other of their knucklehead plays and games they were skunked. An unwise discard to a dealer’s crib usually results in a knowing smirk and reminders of the boneheaded play for 6 months to twelve years. This is why at times the gang is compelled to toss zero zip nada to each other’s crib.
Gougie00 says: Because I am colorblind, I was always the black Risk army too. If your main goal is to not get skunked, then toss the KQ. If you goal is to actually win, toss 78. Another Al Miller tip was to never sort your cards because some people will surmise where the card came from in your hand means it was the highest or lowest.
jmath714
1299 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Sunday 9:00 AM
No way to justify 5 fewer points this early.
At Emerald Coast this weekend, nice to see some of commenters here. Scott absolutely put an impressive move on me to win a game, 👏 👏 👏 to his game.
scottcrib says: Congratulations on winning the Florida tournament!
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Sunday 9:32 AM
Im breaking my own "rule" of never giving my opponent cards that can yield a 24 point crib. With the cut glad opponent doesn't have 24, but would have preferred a face card cut.
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 9:38 AM
Any other choice destroys the hand too much...Optimal strategy seems to be called for here, and I am not willing to let go of 5 pts in the starting hand for any other option.
winesteward48
835 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 9:51 AM
Extreme risk, but I think we need to take the chance at this stage in the game.
Cribsurfer
766 votes

Joined: September 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 10:07 AM
Lead the 5
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 12:05 PM
N/d must play own position first at this juncture. Ther is absolutely nothing to defend as n/d needs 13 points to reach 2nd street CPZ 943-47). Hold the hand with 16 to 18-point potential. Win percentage for holding 5-J-Q-K will be higher and loss percentage will be higher because of the dangerous 7-8 discard. Those percentages stand alone and seldom equal 100%. Will defer to HalscribCLX as to what those exact numbers might be. Since choosing offense, lead the five as that usually represents the primary way n/d will peg two points with these cards. Average amount pegged with these cards barely breaks one point.
Ras2829 says: The potential hand value of 5-J-Q-K is so great (averages more than 11 points) that it matters not whether choosing offense or defense. Miles behind is the 8-K. How many made that choice?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. On defense would you lead your J, as that is the most likely X-Card dealer discarded?
Inushtuk1 says: I was thinking the 5 could be the defensive lead with this hand, as it removes the threat of the 5 card trap.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: The 5, in my judgment, is both offensive and defensive choice. In the latter case n/d avoids the 5 trap as suggested by you. The Jack would be my second choice. Think if choosing defense strategy HalscribCLX would choose the Jack lead rather than the five. Choose the Jack lead only if you have the discipline not to pair the 5 after dealer scores 15-2. If n/d plays the five for a pair, advances the count to 20, any card played by dealer will receive a "go" from n/d. That results in many unnecessary pegs for dealer. So, if you lack discipline are prone to pair rather than advance the count, lead the five every time whether playing offense or defense strategies.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Ras. With regards to the 6 lead as in yesterday's puzzle, do you prefer an 8 response as Dealer over a K or Q?
Tigger23505
163 votes

Joined: October 2022
 
 
 
Sunday 11:25 PM
From my limited experience, despite the loss of two points with the 78 discard. No other discard saved enough points to be viable. Looks like the key to this hand is to be brave and see what happens during play. I think I could go with the x lead and not play for the pair, but my inclination would be the 5 lead.