January 23, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by joekayak
85-72*  ?
56%
41%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 270
joekayakKeep 8 points? Keep 6 points? Probably short either way. How scared should I be of 2-3 to dealer in this position?
james500
4013 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Monday 3:12 AM
I'd choose 10-Q.
Reasonable chance to cut an A,2,3,4,5 or X, although the 9 of clubs is a possibility too.
3 lead.
glmccuskey
4187 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Monday 3:16 AM
I think we need to play our position first which means keeping max points and getting down forth street as far as possible.
JQT
4175 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:55 AM
We are Pone near the end of Third Street.

Of the 91 possible discards we can ever give our Opponent, Toss (T Q) sits nearly SIXTY places higher on the list than Toss (2 3) in terms of safety.

In most cases, Toss (2 3) would lead to a NET loss in our Relative Position, so let's Toss (T Q).

After the 9c Card Cut, lead a Jack of Diamonds.
Eolus619 says: John…might as well start the week off on an upbeat note...one of the best jazz singers ever, Diane Washington, giving us all some sage advice https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aG-wt983kc
Eolus619 says: misspelled her name..Dinah
polynumeral
4610 votes

Joined: December 2008
 
 
 
Monday 4:05 AM
If I were to show PONE my hand before they had seen their own and asked which two cards they would like placed into their crib, I can not imagine that I could live long enough for them to request anything other than the 2,3.

They are not getting them so bye bye 10 Q
24hrb says: 😂 well said
dec
6472 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:28 AM
Funny how a few points more or less on the board makes a certain decision. Playing for a win rather than gaining them an opportunity to have a come from behind win. One of dem Jacks get led here. Defense. dec
Inushtuk1 says: Hi dec. So why not the 3 lead playing defense here?
dec says: DEfense on the discard.. but seeing no points gain on hand will try in later rounds to get two points . I am kind of half way on the three lead if they do not hold two or more faces attempt might fail. dec
mrob2199
1495 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 5:32 AM
We have to keep the hand with the most points going in as well as the most potential-with no cut or pegging help at all we would make it to 93-which is not ideal but certainly not horrible shape-obviously the 23 couid hurt us in the crib but with the dealer at 72 even a 12 point crib is not fatal-the most important hand of the game will be the next deal where we will be full throttle offense all the way
mrob2199 says: Congrats to Jason for taking down the Florida tournament yesterday-I think we could come up with a pretty good team of peggers to compete with anybody from our group of commenters
jmath714 says: Thanks Rob. Are there like, DCH t-shirts we could all wear at Reno or something? Can I make some? I’m picturing it saying “Team DCH” with your respective screen name below, and the URL on the back.
cribbagepogo says: Jason did good, but Scottcrib ended up in 5-8 of the Main, I think and I was #2 qualifier in the Cons. and ended up 3rd.
Ras2829 says: jmath714: Like the idea of the T shirts with logo. Special, faithful group of people who congregate here most every day. Think it would tempt many in the cribbage world to check this site out. Many, on contact, say they have never heard of DCH. Great way to create curiosity and spread the word.
mrob2199 says: Cool idea Jason!!! I would be proud to wear a DCH shirt in Reno-if you could work out the financial aspects Jason I’m sure a bunch of us would approve
dec says: I would be honored to be mentioned with you two. dec. I'm in print the t-shirts!
horus93
1330 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Monday 5:49 AM
Another “on or off” puzzle today. In shorthand I am +0/-24, but dealer only has a three point surplus to win in n+1, while I have a 25 point surplus on that front. I can win by pushing ahead and riding the “26 wave” or by attacking our opponent’s scoring and winning in n+1.

The offensive keep, TJJQ, gets me into decent-to-great position to win on the front end with 20 cuts (5 9 T J Q K), with 8 of those 20 being likely game-winners, but it probably destroys my chances of winning in n+1 and greatly improves dealer’s chances of winning on that schedule.

The more defensive keep, 23JJ, gets me into decent-to-good position to win on the front end with 20 cuts (A 2 3 4 5 J) and close with 10 more (T Q K). It also pegs a little better, but none of its cuts are game-winners. But the TQ balk is not great, and only causes dealer to underscore his averages by about a tenth of a point.

With a score like this, I also have to consider peg-out chances, which improve my surplus by about three points and make offense more attractive.

Weighing all this together, my reasoning today is different from yesterday. The defensive option actually gives me better odds of maintaining position on the front-end, albeit without game-winning cuts, and leaves me more open to win in n+1. Further, with peg-out odds, the defensive option is only all the more attractive offensively since my par can be moved back.

The double run misses on too many cuts for us to abandon n+1 by tossing 23 across the board.

Playing position means looking at both your own position and your opponent's, looking forward and backward.
horus93 says: As for the lead, would play the 3 into the magic 5. Going for 6 with a Jack lead is tempting, as dealer is incentivized to pair, but 12 replies yielding two for nothing is better than 2 replies yielding 6 for 2.
Gougie00
5825 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Monday 5:53 AM
Purely defensive gesture. Planning to nurse the lead. Lead the 2 and play defense..
MiketheExpert
1214 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 6:40 AM
Despite my position at hole 85, and more chances for a great cut by keeping the max hand, (2 3) in my opponent's crib could be just what the doctor ordered for him. From his perspective, he will take any help he can get, and (2 3) is far too much help. (10 Q) is SO much safer (especially holding 2 J's), that it will pay off to m
MiketheExpert says: make this sacrifice in the long run, despite the probability of coming up short on 4th street. Let's lead our Jd right off the bat, and try and add on some more after the poor 9 cut.
MiketheExpert says: My outlook on this hand is offense from the get-go, and because of the vast difference in value of these two tosses, I believe the safer crib throw will still hold the net edge.
wasa
3101 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Monday 6:57 AM
Not willing to give opponent the 2-3.
mfetchCT425
1456 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Monday 7:21 AM
With dealer back at 72, I will not be too concerned about the 2-3 toss. Will play aggressively by holding the points in hand with a good amount of cuts to put us in great position on 4th street.
Eolus619
1432 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Monday 7:38 AM
With the cut miss the scenario could now work out to be
91*-88…107…98*…117*-115…

Rob & Mike could be providing me with a very worthwhile lesson in board position.

Eolus619 says: The other reason I didn’t chose the double run is too few cuts help( this after one of the few that didn’t help mine turns up!)
winesteward48
906 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Monday 9:34 AM
No need to help our opponent try to catch up by putting 2-3 in their crib. I guess I should have cut the deck thin - for a "sure to win"
Inushtuk1 says: Hi winesteward48. Maybe cut the deck very deep - "so as not to weep."
Inushtuk1
1569 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Monday 10:17 AM
Just read Gary, Rob, and Mike's comments. They may be right. See Bruce above for why. But I felt this was a cautious offense position, and just couldn't toss (2-3). As someone above said, this could be a learning lesson. As I am short, I will lead my J on offense.
Eolus619 says: Mike….A-2-3-3….9 = 14
Inushtuk1 says: Got it. Give me something harder Bruce.
cribbagepogo
3265 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 10:20 AM
By the way, X,J,J,Q giving away 2 points with 2/3 to dealer is same net as keeping 2/3,J,J. I think the 2/3 will increase and be worse.
Ras2829
5244 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Monday 10:23 AM
Before the deal, n/d should recognize that 4th street CPZ (95-99) and aim to reach. There are only two X-point double runs from which n/d would discard two X-pointers. Those are this one and J-J-Q-K. With others such as 2-3-10-10-J-Q, 2-3-10-J-Q-Q, hold the double run and discard 2-3. If the discard includes a Jack, toss 2-3. In unusual cases, where pegs or a variety of cards were more important, n/d then might hold 2-3-X-X (115-119* e.g.) Choosing offense from the git-go, move down the board, lousy 9 on the deck, lead JD. Don't intend to fake a flush though if dealer plays a deuce on the Jack, would show the suited trey and take the 15-2, and often follow up with a run of four. Dealer just might want to peg seeing n/d down the board 13 holes. If dealer doesn't play low on first card, might be holding a single small card such as a four. With a six-point hand, a few pegs would be a great thing for n/d. Go for them - don't worry about giving up a few.
Ras2829 says: BTW there are only six n/d discard combinations which score 0-2 40% or more of the time. Among those are 10-K 45.494%; Q-K 42.431%; and 10-Q 40.972%. If you would like to know the others, just email raswino29@outlook.com any old time.
wasa says: This helps show why I am not a good pegger. Why lead the J? My opponent would have a tendency to keep any 5 they have, and I have no reply to a 5 except another J. If they have the two card magic 11, then 4 points for them, none for me. I would (normally) lead the 3. If they reply with a face card or T (other than a J) i get 15-2 with my 2. If they put a J on my 3, then I reply with my J as a "safe" play. I'm predictable, but I would always lead a 4 from a A-4 combo, and a 3 from a 2-3 combo, anticipating a T or face-card reply.
wasa says: Actually, if I lead the J and they play a 5, then my reply should be my 2? Hmmmm
MiketheExpert says: A low card (probably 3) would be the correct defensive lead. But by leading the J, I am saying I'm not too bothered if he replies with a 5 for 15-2, and in this case I would play my next J and hope to trap one of his low cards for a multiple score (it would be especially nice if he has another 3 to match). Even at the possible cost of giving up 2-4 additional pegs, I want my opportunity for a big pegging score (tripling a J is wishful thinking, but there may be instances in which he would pair an opening J lead). As Ras mentioned, if we changed the double run to 10-10-J-Q or 10-J-Q-Q, then I would also be tossing (2-3), as the (10-J) or (J-Q) does not have enough additional safety for even the 2-pt starting hand reduction.
Ras2829 says: Hi wasa: If choosing offense strategy to include the pegging, n/d is only concerned with own pegging. If dealer gets 2-3 pegs, so be it. If choosing defense split the lower cards, force the five off the play by leading a trey. If you'll look closely at HalscribCLX pegging analysis, when choosing defense, the bottom card in the list is generally the offensive lead. BTW, would work the same if choosing offense pegging strategy if the small cards were A-4, lead from the pair. If choosing defense to include the pegging, lead the four. Choice of offense or defense should be based on your needs. If choosing offense, am not concerned with pegs scored by opponent, am only concerned with pegging potential for me. If choosing defense all that matters are the points given up to opponent. If in the middle choosing an optimal strategy, pegs are net pegs. Dealer averages nearly four pegs. Pick up the pace when non-dealer in most cases since n/d barely averages two pegs. With careful adherence to those principles, one can average 32 pegs per game or more.
Ras2829 says: Strange as it may seem, if choosing defense, wishing to avoid pegs, the 2 is the better lead. The lone deuce poses the greatest risk of any single card in the hand; hence becomes the lead. The trey would be the lead if choosing optimal strategy.
wasa says: Thanks! Things to think about....
Coeurdelion
5674 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Monday 2:38 PM
I'll compare 2-3-J-J (10-Q) and 10-J-J-Q (2-3):

2-3-J-J: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.61) = +1½pts

10-J-J-Q: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = +½pt

Potential:

2-3-J-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 12xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, JJ = 20 cuts. Plus 10 diamonds and 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.

10-J-J-Q: Improves with 5555, 9999 + 12xXs = 20 cuts = 20/46 = 43.5% up to 15/16pts with 5555, 101010, JJ, QQQ = 12 cuts. Plus 10 diamonds and 11 hearts for 1pt extra for his nob = 21/46 = 0.46pt.

Position:

Dealer is 2pts past 3rd street positional hole while we need 11pts to reach 4th street positional hole. I'll play Offense and try to reach 96pts or get past it.

Pegging:

With two low cards and a pair of Js I think 2-3-J-J will peg better.

Summary:

2-3-J-J is better for starting value by 1pt. It also has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 9-12pts compared to 10 cuts for 15/16pts with 10-J-J-Q. 2-3-J-J should also peg better and have considerable negative delta for the 10-Q throw as we hold two Js. So I'll go with the 10-Q toss.
HalscribCLX
5400 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Monday 3:14 PM
At 85-72* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W3 %____W4 %
2-3-J-J_____8.80+1.30+(-4.23)=5.87____50.2____71.8
10-J-J-Q___10.85+1.26+(-7.04)=5.07____59.9____69.4

Offense______L3 %____L4 %
2-3-J-J_______13.4____21.5
10-J-J-Q______22.4____22.9

2-3-J-J is better for expected averages by 0.80pt. However 10-J-J-Q is very much better for Win %s although 2-3-J-J is even lower for Loss %s because of the high risk of the 2-3. So I'll select the 10-Q to discard.

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
J___________________1.43
3___________________1.07
2___________________0.88