January 24, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by wildman
96-105*  ?
52%
14%
7%
6%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 263
wildmanDo we sacrifice points to pone's crib in a last ditch effort to get back in position?
james500
3477 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:19 AM
16 points in two hands is pretty likely for the dealer, but I'll do what I can to slow them down. Maybe they get dealt some poor cards, I know that I do from time to time. Combined with an unhelpful discard from me, and perhaps I can be yet be victorious.

Jack of diamonds with the 8, since there are more hearts remaining in circulation.
wasa says: I kept the 8-J of diamonds in case I can fake a diamond flush....
dec
5891 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:30 AM
There is probably no position to regain here in my opinion. The best outlook here is to gain a cut of a six or nine , minimal hand or crib by our opponent. Some reckless pegging by our opponent would aid here also. The last bar hopefully 116 or more that is the real goal here. Lead the eight, they pair? dec
glmccuskey
3654 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:49 AM
Best defensive discard in hope that dealer has a bad hand and crib.
Gougie00
5271 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:23 AM
I also tossed 8-J. I need to stonewall the dealer and hope he has a dud hand and crib.
mrob2199
1167 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:30 AM
With Gary today-in these situations I like leading the picture-if dealer has a 5 we are most likely finished anyways
JQT
3713 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:48 AM
Our Opponent is the Dealer at Hole 105, and sits precisely Sixteen Points away from VICTORY, which happens to be the Dealer's average scoring of Hand and Crib.

Therefore, as Pone at Hole 96, this means that unless we can score Twenty-Five Points in-a-hurry (by completion of this deal), we are STUCK in a DEFENSIVE STAND against our Dealer Opponent! 🔩

As Pone at Hole 96, we are sitting right atop the Fourth Street Par Hole, which means that as long as our Opponent does not go out first, we now have a fifty-fifty chance that we will "land" on Hole 121 after tallying our Crib at the completion of Next Deal IF we ever get to count it!

This means that in spite of our DEFENSIVE posture, we would also like to remain "on pace" if possible; and yet if we fail to do so, we could retain a beneficial Relative Position IF we can survive the next two deals.

We must find a Defensive Discard amidst a very challenging arrangement of cards, and either Toss (8 J) or Toss (7 J) jump out as the ONLY two defensive discards available to us.

Our chances of winning are extremely remote, perhaps lower than 5%, but it does nothing to improve our odds if we throw anything more dangerous today, so we are forced to Toss (8 J), unsuited of course.

After the 6c Card Cut, we now have Eight Points. Let's lead our 7 Card, in order to 'bust up' any possible sequence that may remain in our Hand.

We are in very sad shape, but who knows: the Dealer may have a problem as well.

https://youtu.be/kyquqw6GeXk
Eolus619 says: JQT…HARMONY…and I think 1969 seems like a long time ago to me because ….…well…..it was a long time ago.
horus93 says: Hi JQT, enjoyed your post. But the fifty-fifty odds dealing here are to count out as pone on the hand after next, not to count out as dealer on the next one. The par for dealer counting out, if he gets to count at all, is 105.
horus93 says: Nevermind, I see what you meant now!
JQT says: The "Twenty-Six Theory" places us right at the threshold of either/or: either way, your point is well-taken, because as Next Dealer, we'll *still* be in a DEFENSIVE posture, and so our main focus, like now, should be on stopping our Opponent during the pegging, and NOT on our own scoring. Therefore, the "odds" of us going out, whether above or below or equal to 50%, are not as important as our primary task of defending against an immediate loss.
MiketheExpert
671 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:50 AM
At this position, I am willing to concede the game and try to reduce the spread. Throwing the J's away and let's hope for a cut like today on CHOD which will enable us to reduce the number of points by which we lose. Lead from the pair of 8's.
glmccuskey says: We have all lost plenty of games as dealer from these relative positions. Do not concede.
Eolus619 says: glm….Super Bowl LI played 2/8/2017 would be an example to support your attitude. Unless you were Atlanta…
MiketheExpert says: I might not if I was playing with a skewed RNG at some online cribbage sites -- In real life, the odds are miniscule :)
MiketheExpert says: Haven't examined the odds in depth for obvious reasons, but I could have almost as much chance of getting a lucky cut (like today), pegging 6 pts and then being in a position to possibly peg out next hand, than hoping he cannot reach a total of 16 points on his next 3-count.
Eolus619
894 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:23 AM
Looking @ 96-105*..my discard would depend on where I am in the tournament. If point spread is what matters , then J-J would be my choice since double run points would be possible. If I am in the 3rd game of 2/3 , then I would discard defensively 8-J…regardless I should have played better earlier.
Eolus619 says: and wildman..great to see a new voter submitting a puzzle…now encourage you to start commenting.. since none of us can predict the cut card..we are all in the same boat !
Eolus619 says: one more btw…if you have yet to read Ras’s thread from yesterday…just short ( and not by very much) of being mandatory for any cribbage player…
wildman says: Thanks for the warm welcome. With such consistent high-level discussion from the regular posters I often feel I have little more to contribute.
james500 says: Hi Wildman, hope you're well. Don't be bashful about posting on here. It's always useful to learn how other people percieve the situation, and how they think to best tackle it. Sometimes your train of thought will match the crowd, other times your's might be a lone voice, but let us know what you think either way. I'm sure you have valuable insight to contribute, and will provide plenty of, "food for thought" in the future. You needn't submit long, detailed posts everyday, but please feel free to join in.
wildman says: Thanks for your contributions james500, and will do! On a related note, has anyone started an open-ended project to curate the best tidbits of wisdom from this site over the years? Looks like (correct me if I'm wrong) the first hands were posted in February 2007. I'd bet that all but a precious few site visitors take the time to check out old hands. I wonder if there's interest for a series of "Best of Hand of the Day, 2007-2008" style blog posts à la Schell's Cribbage Forum or Josh's Cribbage Pro Blog. I'm curious what you all think.
wasa
2596 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:43 AM
Full defense with the 8-J. I need to slow down my opponent, who is past their "par" value.
horus93
860 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:26 AM
I love desperate positions in cribbage because it’s so satisfying when you pull off a win with careful play.

This score is difficult. Even a great cut would leave us well short and dealing next hand, while the opponent has a ten point surplus. So I have to hold dealer back. My victory depends on dealer’s scoring imploding both this hand and the next, with me counting out as dealer.

But counting out as dealer requires moving down the board.

The problem, then, is to weigh the relative risks of the balk vs the offensive tosses on the odds of our opponent winning frontwards, versus the relative risks of failing to count out as dealer next hand in the back.

Dealer’s surplus to win in n is so great that the balk has more value, since his counting out is an existential threat, and more likely than getting to count my cards as dealer at all. I’ll just have to trust to luck to get great cards next hand, with opponent’s scoring collapsing, and win. Of course the odds are low, but in situations like this you have to look for the most likely pathway, no matter how unlikely it is.

Discardpro thinks J7 is a marginally better as a balk with this delta, but still prefer the J8 to the J7 for the prospects of a better hand. Here, the relative defensive benefits are outweighed by the offensive side.

Defense in the pegging, of course. Would lead the 7, and trying to dump the 5 would probably be the next priority.

I'm philosophically opposed to spreadpoints, and always play to win or dodge the skunk.
horus93 says: james500 makes a solid point about the jack. That's another case where offensive considerations (nob) are worth more than defensive (crib flush), just didn't see it today.
JQT says: Very accurate assessment, in my opinion, including the observation to stick with Toss (8s Jd) and avoid any minuscule improvement with Toss (7 J). Also, the way james500 discards today, he both optimizes for scoring Nobs via the Jack of Hearts held in our own Hand, while avoiding any chance of a Crib Flush being scored by our Opponent. And, since we intend to lead the 7 Card, a 'Fake Flush' is better maintained in Clubs rather than Diamonds. It's subtle observations and nuances such as these in Cribbage that can often salvage such tricky, seemingly lost endgames!
james500 says: Thank you both for the kind words. It's as a result of posting and reading the comments of others every day, that I am able to "see" and consider such nuances. This site has been an invaluable learning tool for me.
Wendy242
684 votes

Joined: August 2012

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:19 AM
Agree with Rob and Gary. Playing defense. Like playing the J first
Eolus619 says: Wendy..encourage you to comment more frequently!!!
cribbagepogo says: Amen!!
JQT says: 676 votes in 13 years is exactly one vote each week! Maybe Wendy242 has a Top Secret job in Area 51 with no Internet Service allowed six days each week! 👽 ❓
LoneStarPegger
777 votes

Joined: January 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:07 AM
I forgot the point of the game is to win and abandoned the Full on Defense because it requires Dealer to have a horrible hand and crib and next hand. I’ve had that experience so I know it’s possible, but not likely. We would also be dealing from about 16 out.
MiketheExpert says: This is what cemented the final decision for me. Discarding the (8 J) and holding 4 pts in hand, we would not expect to even make it to hole 105 by next deal. So not only would he have to have 3 poor hands in a row (2 deals + crib), but even then we are far less than assured of counting out, EVEN if we make it past that 3-count.
jmath714
1268 votes

Joined: January 2012

 
 
 
Tuesday 11:18 AM
Shame on anyone who threw the J of hearts - there’s one less diamond in the deck 😂
scottcrib says: That's some championship level wisdom right there!
wasa says: I kept the 8-J of diamonds to help fake a diamond flush - did it on purpose....
JQT says: Good Observations! ♥ ♠ ♦ ♣ (ALSO: See my reply below the posting by horus93.)
Coeurdelion
5172 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:37 PM
I'll look at 5-7-8-8 (J-J), 5-7-8-J (8-JH), 5-7-J-J (8-8) and 5-8-8-J (7-J):

5-7-8-8: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.42) = -¼pt

5-7-8-JH: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = -½pt

5-7-J-J: 6pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = -¾pt

5-8-8-JH: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.68) = -½pt

Potential:

5-7-8-8: Improves with 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12/14pts with 2222, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts.

5-7-8-JH: Improves with 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8pts with 555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999, JJ = 18 cuts. Plus 12 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

5-7-J-J: Improves with 3333, 555, 6666, 777, 88 + 14xXs = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/12pts with 555, 6666, JJ = 9 cuts. Plus 12 hearts and 11 diamonds for 1pt extra for his nob = 23/46 = 0.50pt.

5-8-8-JH: Improves with 2222, 555, 777, 88 + 14xXs = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8pts with 2222, 555, 777, 88, JJ = 14 cuts. Plus 12 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

Position:

Dealer needs 16pts to go out and on average will score 16pts. We're a long way behind but if we scored 12/14pts and opponent did not go oput next deal we may win as Dealer next time although it is a long shot.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 5-7-8-8 may peg best.

Summary:

5-7-8-8 has the best starting value by ¼pt. but it has no nob potential. It also has joint most cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 10-14pts which is the highest. So with the potential to score 12/14pts and with better pegging I'll risk throwing the pair of Js.
HalscribCLX
4890 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:38 PM
At 96-105* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W1 %___W2 %
5-7-8-JH___6.61+1.52+(-4.08)=4.05____0.0____2.4
5-7-8-8____9.13+1.35+(-6.52)=3.96____0.0____1.6
5-7-J-J____8.33+1.37+(-5.86)=3.84____0.0____1.5
5-8-8-JH___6.00+1.26+(-4.05)=3.21____0.0____2.3

Offense______L1 %___L2 %
5-7-8-JH______33.5___91.8
5-7-8-8_______47.7___94.8
5-7-J-J_______46.1___94.9
5-8-8-JH______31.2___90.8

5-7-8-JH is best for expected averages but in this board position Win/Loss %s are most important. 5-7-8-JH is very slightly best for Win %s over 5-8-8-JH but 5-8-8-JH is slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-JD to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead an 8 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead________________Net Pegging Pts.
8_______________________(-0.96)
J_______________________(-1.37)
5_______________________(-1.93)
MiketheExpert says: The W/L%'s seem pretty optimistic to me on 2nd deal :-)
wildman says: Always interesting when the majority disagree with Halscrib
bbaer1
3273 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:31 PM
Well, what do you know.
winesteward48
433 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:27 PM
Just trying to slow down our opponent as much as possible.
RGM
590 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:35 PM