January 25, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
30-33*  ?
49%
24%
13%
5%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Total votes: 265
james500
3924 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:07 AM
Perhaps too cautious, but I'd choose differently coloured 8-3.

Only the cut of an Ace won't improve my hand value.

8-5-3 sixteen combo to play from.

With 3,7,8 in my hand, 3-8 in my opponent's crib is deprived of three friends.
MiketheExpert
1123 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:49 AM
Let's try the same 4-card keep as with yesterday, but this time it is in no concession. The 3's are less dangerous than the 8's over the board, and dealer is out of position, so the crib throw of this pair doesn't worry me all that much. After the typical face card cut, let's try leading the 5 from our hand today. This has been known to run 8's together on the back end of the pegging with a hand of all X's from dealer. Otherwise, it should limit the pegging damage as he would be disinclined to pair an opening lead of the 5.
Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: Let me chime in with my empirical data on 3-3 and 8-8 discards to opponent. Please note that didn't discard these pairs very often. The 3-3 averages 6.106 based on 107 discards and 8-8 averages 7.907 (205). Either pair often explodes in crib for high scores since 7-8 is most frequent discard made by dealer and 2-3 is second most frequent.
MiketheExpert says: Perfect, thank you Ras, this is exactly what I had in mind.
Gougie00
5731 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:59 AM
Winning or losing on this toss. No decent discard so I toss the dangerous 88.
horus93
1282 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:47 AM
The position is offensive at -2/+17. Dealer is -9 to win in n-1 at 33, so we have room to go nuts. All that matters here is what will give me best hand score+pegs.

Cut this way today for better offensive pegging. 3357 is more of a defensive hand, although it will of course get 2 with the eleven pretty often.

Mike has an interesting idea in leading the five and going for a two-on-none with the eights. This seems like an especially good ploy against a positional player. Against most people, though, leading the eight will pick up more pegs imo. But pegging isn't my strong point at all, and look forward to other comments.
horus93 says: But cribbagepro has pone pegging 2.65 with 3357 and only 2.06 with this, so I’d say this keep is wrong. Foiled by pegging calculations.
Eolus619 says: horus..in the past I have had email dialogs with several accomplished peggers about this cribbagepro table..their take is it appears to be derived from all games ..not games from players of equal ability..your call as to the validity of its use
horus93 says: Yeah it’s definitely from all players. I don’t think that invalidates it though for a bird’s eye view.
MiketheExpert says: I recognize the importance in cribbage of pegging for top-tier players and mastery of the game, however I generally do not weight these averages at the same "level" as more concrete numbers such as expected hand averages and average cribs, simply because there are so many variables involved with the pegging aspect of the game, such as players' relative skill, intangible and psychological considerations which may all have a dramatic effect on the end result, even with 2 opponents having identical holdings. It seems like to attach an offensive or defensive "pegging" value to any 4-card holding would require a lot more assumptions in order to arrive at this calculation.
MiketheExpert says: The value of 3357 being more than 5788 makes sense, considering 3357 has a magic 11 and 2 "High value" pegging cards in the pair of treys. But are your odds of scoring a "target" number, such as exactly 4, or exactly 6 much higher with one holding than another? That is a very tough question to answer.
mfetchCT425
1400 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:21 AM
I think 3-3 can be just as dangerous as 8-8 and I like the pegging options and flexibility with this hold compared to 5-7-8-8, which has no escape cards if opponent engages on our opening lead. 3 through 7 cut cards provide exceptional help to hand.
Eolus619 says: Mike…I see you have made your way back into ecribbage top ten rankings..congrats👏👏👏👏👏👏
SallyAnn3 says: YAY Mike! Nice to type your name in the top results. CONGRATS on SILVER last night! Sue is on fire this month.
SallyAnn3 says: Bruce: where are you seeing the top ten? It is only updated the first of each month, on the ACC website,first page of the online section.
Eolus619 says: it is under ecribbage stats..it is not related to ACC
SallyAnn3 says: Oh duh LOL....ty for the clarification.
wasa
3019 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:41 AM
Hmmm hard one. Guess I'll learn a lesson today. 3-3 vs 8-8 toss? Or is tossing the 5 the way to go? 8-8 can offer up a 24 point crib, especially since dealer loves tossing 7-8. But 3-3 is a very powerful discard, going so well with the 2-3 combo.
dec
6359 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:43 AM
A-2-4 vs 6-7-8 cards in the deck or dealt. I pick the latter. dec
Jazzselke
2587 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:14 AM
Agree with Mike, threes can be as dangerous as the eights. And the 335 Magic 11 often results in a 31 count. Any cut card matching the 3,5 or 7 is 12, and of course a 4 is 14.
glmccuskey says: Agree
Eolus619
1343 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:56 AM
Two lessons today…first…11/13 pairs across the board average more than six in the crib.. http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm..so Pone beware…2) Pone needs to be +5 to the cycle to deal first in CPZ#3..and now with three hands (including this one) to do so

Pone needs points…12/13 ranks help this cut ..the second most frequent dealer crib discard is 2-3..off go the 8s


Eolus619 says: yes i know…the first most frequent dealer discard is 7-8
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. I make it Pone is -3 to the cycle to deal first in CPZ#3. But your point is very valid. We need points.
Eolus619 says: Mike...i see your threshold par..i have used 44 ..but I know RAS starts it earlier at 43 ..maybe I should too
Eolus619 says: MIke...further explanation...i used 44 and wanted to be dealing from 71...that was the logic behind my original post..30+10=40..short four from 44 as par and short five if I wanted to get to 71......45+26= 71 it i maybe I should just use Ras's numbers and settle on that approach
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Bruce.
winesteward48
835 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:47 AM
I frequently look at net points. If I keep 6 points and give the opponent 2 in the crib the net is 4. Of course near the end of the game this decision is different. So, with that in mind I kept 4 which will most likely be at least 6 and hopefully balked the crib.
sterno
454 votes

Joined: December 2020
 
 
 
Wednesday 10:50 AM
Late to the party since I was not able to log on until lunch. Do I keep the 3s or the 8s. Both decisions seem very close in value. Or break up the pairs. I choose to keep the 8's on the forlorn hope of the cut producing a double run... which did not happen..

Very interesting the debate on 3s vs 8s.
Inushtuk1
1488 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:30 PM
Like horus and wasa, pegging is not my strong point. So if the decision is close, I like to keep the one with the Magic Eleven. I need all the help I can get! Besides, that was what Colvert advised in his book.
Eolus619 says: Mike...A-3-4-7....6 = 2
Eolus619 says: above too simple?...try this...7-A-3-6....5 = 7
Inushtuk1 says: Got it. But it took a few seconds for sure. Thanks.
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:15 PM
I think it's between 3-3-5-7 (8-8), 5-7-8-8 (3-3) and 3-5-7-8 (3-8):

3-3-5-7: 6pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 6.82) = -¾pt

5-7-8-8: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -½pt

3-5-7-8: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = -1pt

Potential:

3-3-5-7: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/12/14pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777 = 16 cuts.

5-7-8-8: Improves with 2222, 33, 555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12/14pts with 2222, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 17 cuts.

3-5-7-8: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/9pts with 33, 4444, 555, 6666, 777, 88, 9999 = 22 cuts.

Position:

It's 14pts to 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

3-3-5-7 has two low cards, a 5 and a middle cards plus a 3-card magic eleven so I think this will peg best.

Summary:

5-7-8-8 is best for starting value by ¼pt but 3-3-5-7 and 3-5-7-8 have more cuts for improvement and while 3-3-5-7 may well peg better and has 16 cuts for 9-14pts 5-7-8-8 has nearly as many cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 10-14pts. So I'll throw the 3-3.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:20 PM
At 30-33* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W6 %____W7 %
3-3-5-7____9.13+1.39+(-5.75)=4.77____12.6____32.1
3-5-7-8____6.91+1.54+(-4.29)=4.16_____9.1____27.6
5-7-8-8____9.13+1.35+(-6.45)=4.03____12.3____31.3

Offense______L6 %____L7 %
3-3-5-7_______17.6____38.3
3-5-7-8_______15.1____40.3
5-7-8-8_______18.6____40.0

3-3-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.61pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and is a very close second lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 8-8 to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead the 3C and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
3__________________1.45
7__________________1.07
5__________________0.92
oc
78 votes

Joined: September 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 2:58 PM
Just going to add a small point about blocking. We have 7 in hand so we block a lot of the big cribs. To see the difference, think about what happens if we discard 88 with a hand like: 334588. Similarly, with other blockers, we can reduce the value of discarding 33. A crazy but analogous example would be if you discarded 33 from 223333 since you block all triple 3s and a lot of 23X in the crib
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:37 PM
Sorry for late post, but having difficulty reaching 'vertical' stage today. Will give quick analysis before looking at many others' ideas.

As Pone at Hole 30, we need Fourteen Points to reach the Second Street Par Hole 44. Toss (3 3) and Toss (8 8) are almost equally dangerous, but the 7 Card does lend some Negative Delta to Toss (8 8).

Also, Toss (3 3) can form 'Fifteen' combinations in greater numbers, since there are more ways to create these with smalled 'pip' values, something I sometimes refer to "Pin Action."

Let's Toss (8 8), and after the Queen Cut we have Eight Points; we'll lead a Trey from our PAIR.

Wordle 585 3/6 (Tough Word, Found by Process-of-Elimination)

⬛⬛🟩⬛🟩
⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Inushtuk1 says: So as Dealer would you play it the same way or get that pin action in the crib?
JQT says: Yes, the Crib is where, when you hold garbage, the concept of tossing lower-ranking cards and Pin Action was formed. One other idea about using tabulated data for comparing Toss (3 3) with Toss (8 8): We should not always trust numbers to decipher a problem or situation that was made under duress. Think of when and why you ever had to discard EITHER of these two discards over the board, and the extremely complicated hands that force us to make either decision in isolation. And today, we are confronted with having to consider BOTH of these! To believe the discard tables under such dire circumstances is akin to trying to interpret a hostage video, because our hand is virtually being held hostage to its own contents! We cannot really contextualize the meaning of the data until we (try to) decipher the ramifications of how such a decision affects the other cards and how it may "fit" our relative position. Charts cannot really convey the complexity of what might compell EITHER of these two discards, and having to consider them together, side by side, makes our job even more difficult. And as far as Halscrib assigning 0.70 point LOWER to Toss (8 8), well, I have told the site repeatedly about the program's aversion and/or affinity to the number three!! ; - 3
Ras2829
5155 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:45 PM
Prefer this potential 14-point hand and like the safer lead from 3-3. Will choose 3H as would like to drop the 5next play to be rid of lone five and fake a flush. If trey is paired, would triple. You can see the averages for 8-8 and 3-3 in actual play under reply to MiketheExpert. My empirical data gives 3-3 and 8-8 considerably higher average than shown by HalscribCLX. A trey lead would apply whether choosing offense or defense strategy.