January 28, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by joekayak
0*-0  ?
36%
36%
28%
28%
21%
21%
10%
10%
2%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 237
joekayakFlush or not? If so, which flush? Or keep which double run?
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4344 votes)

Saturday 3:13 AM
Plenty of options to mull over. I've chosen the Ace to 4 flush, with 4-5 to my crib.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4515 votes)

Saturday 3:47 AM
Toss (4 5) is superior to Toss (A 4).
Coeurdelion says: Wow! That's short for you John! 8-)
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1318 votes)

Saturday 3:53 AM
I might definitely choose (4 5) at first glance if I'm keeping a flush. But the longer I stared at it, the more double-run hypnosis got me today, with still the opportunity to throw a 5 in my crib. It may be my miscalculation, but also every cut still improves this hand, so we'll see how this double-run stands up, just out of curiosity.....
MiketheExpert says: Suspect that (4 5) with the better crib value may work, but pegging-wise it sort of depends on your own philosophy here as to which would be preferable.
MiketheExpert says: I have the possibility of scoring a nice clean 12 pts on the pegging with the double-run, couldn't resist :)
bbaer1

Joined: February 2011 (3824 votes)

Saturday 4:28 AM
100% cut help, a three-card eleven, better pegger, and the A4 toss is still a guaranteed two points in the crib.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6170 votes)

Saturday 5:23 AM
An embarrassment of wealth. A 12 hand and probably 8 in the crib means I should jump out to a sizeable lead. No playing off with these cards, all out offense.
Eolus619 says: Morning Gougie00…is there a “trigger” or “tell” you use when it comes to the number of actual points held by games 1st dealer which causes you to switch from Colvert’s recommended defense to offense?
Gougie00 says: Ras can answer that question better than I ever will. Some hands, like this one or a double run, forces you to play offensive. Jump out to huge lead then playing offense is a moot point. It's the only way I know of to beat some of the better players, never take your foot off the gas pedal.
scottcrib says: Very true.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6854 votes)

Saturday 5:52 AM
Any chance of seeing second street here? I can for see it here. Offense on the keep. Offense on the pegging. After cut could be bye bye opponent. dec
Eolus619 says: morning dec…if any rank of the four cards in your keep were lead which would you pair?
Gougie00 says: I would pair any lead except the ace. If the phone has all low cards a pegging battle will happen.
dec says: I will do the same ,if they have a five in their hand, I would like to force that one to be played earlier in the pegging sequence. dec
Eolus619 says: thank you both
Inushtuk1 says: Good morning dec and Gougie. Why not pair the Ace as well?
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4483 votes)

Saturday 6:56 AM
4-5 is a top ten discard. This looks like the best way to go.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2865 votes)

Saturday 7:00 AM
Great pegging potential and the sometimes underrated 45 to the crib. Hard to go wrong with any of the 3 best options, 2234 would be my second choice, which also has solid pegging prospects.
Jazzselke says: Correction 2344
horus93

Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes)

Saturday 7:02 AM
The first hand of the game is basically defensive (+11/-6), but I still generally toss for best expected averages. Misjudged the value of A4 vs 45 today in the crib, since it actually outweighs this better hand, a point in average crib versus a .5 difference in the two hands. This is definitely a gap in my knowledge: I usually know what tosses are better or worse but not the numbers behind them.

Since the cards are so good, would play defense in the pegging as far as possible. These cards aren't good enough to actually shorten the game.
Eolus619 says: morning horus…plz remind me how in your +/- calculation GFD is +11..thx
horus93 says: Sure Eolus, you just subtract the average scoring backward from 121, which is 26 points (10 for pone, 16 for dealer) on fourth street and 26.4 points (10.2 for pone, 16.2 for dealer) on 1/2/3rd streets. In "standard" 26/25 theory, like Schell, the starting surplus for dealer is 8 points, and for Colvert it's 9 iirc. It's actually -10.6 the way I do it, but it's being rounded to -11. Really the different systems don't make much of a difference, mainly on 1st/2nd streets where position is relatively less important anyway, so it's just a fussy/dorky thing I do. Doubt it actually helps me win any more games.
horus93 says: The idea is, GFD could sacrifice 11 points in his/her own scoring and still have a 50/50 shot of winning in n counts. Or 9 points for Colvert, or 8 for Schell. To put it another way, GFD could, in theory, start 11 points backwards from hole 0 (or 8, or 9) and have a 50/50 shot of winning in n counts.
horus93 says: Its primary effect is to make the early game more dichotomous, with fewer balanced positions. GFP is pushed towards offense, and GFD to defense, reflecting the advice of Colvert, Ras, et al, while in 26/25 theory the position is neutral. It makes offense more attractive, overall, on 1st and 2nd streets, since the pars are closer to you.
Eolus619 says: thx…the initial differences between you three is what needed clarification
fentesk

Joined: January 2021 (1626 votes)

Saturday 7:08 AM
I put the 5 in the crib, and wanted to keep the a flush, so 4-5 today.

I am willing to sign up to try various options and report back if I can have this be my opening dealer hand for my next dozen games or so...
Inushtuk1 says: I also volunteer most willingly for that assignment.
Scott58

Joined: November 2022 (354 votes)

Saturday 8:31 AM
5-4-4-3 seems to hold the best upside for me. Ace or 9 are the only cut cards that improve the majority hand more than the double.
Eolus619 says: welcome scott58..encourage you to post frequently
scottcrib says: Oh no, another Scott!
Jazzselke says: My thought also!?!
Tigger23505 says: The wonderful thing about my nome de web is that t i double guh e r seems to be uncommon. Welcome aboard Scott58.
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1696 votes)

Saturday 10:13 AM
I’m with most of the crowd today-I want Joe dealing MY hands for me!!!! Lol
sterno

Joined: December 2020 (534 votes)

Saturday 10:39 AM
I am clearly not with the herd today. I lusted over the flush / run but the double run was intriguing. Instinctually my thoughts rebelled against tossing a five but it was my crib...
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1833 votes)

Saturday 10:59 AM
I too went with the best crib toss. But I am concerned about Pone holding all small cards as well. I don't wish to engage in a pegging battle. I'm hoping JQT's safety in numbers theory holds true. But see dec's post above, for how he, and Gougie would play this hand on small card leads.

Great puzzle Joe.
winesteward48

Joined: April 2021 (979 votes)

Saturday 12:09 PM
I think most pones try to avoid discarding 6, 7 and 8. 4 or A a little more often. Only reason I selected this choice.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Saturday 2:00 PM
If we keep a running flush it's between 2-3-4C-5 (A-4D) and A-2-3-4C (4D-5) but there is also the double-run 3-4-4-5 (A-2) and each of these starts with 8pts.

2-3-4C-5: 8pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 13¼pts

A-2-3-4C: 8pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 14½pts

3-4-4-5: 8pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.23) = 12¼pts

Potential:

2-3-4C-5: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/13/14/16pts with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 555, 6666, 8888 + 16xXs = 38 cuts. Plus 8 club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 8/46 = 0.17pt.

A-2-3-4C: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 11/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 44, 555, 8888, 9999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts. Plus 8 club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 8/46 = 0.17pt.

3-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 84.8% up to 12/14/16/17/20pts with 222, 333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 = 23 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

These hands are not ideal for pegging Defense but I think 3-4-4-5 may peg slightly better.

Summary:

A-2-3-4C is best for starting value by 1¼pts over 2-3-4C-5.
2-3-4C-5 and A-2-3-4C are very similar for potential increase with guaranteed improvement and with 38 cuts for a good/very good hand. However 2-3-4C-5 has 38 cuts for 12-16pts while A-2-3-4C has 38 cuts for 12-16pts. 3-4-4-5 has fewer cuts for improvement but with 23 cuts for 12-20pts but I think starts too far behind at 2¼pts lower than A-2-3-4C. So although 2-3-4C-5 has better potential I don't think it will catch up the 1¼pts. Therefore I'll throw the 4D-5.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5702 votes)

Saturday 2:15 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-2-3-4C___12.24+(-2.17)+6.25=16.32____15.5____40.3
2-3-4C-5___12.67+(-2.04)+5.17=15.80____14.3____38.2
2-3-4-4____11.87+(-2.22)+5.38=15.03____12.9____36.5
A-2-3-5____11.02+(-2.15)+5.26=14.13____12.4____35.4
3-4-4-5____11.87+(-2.37)+3.63=13.13____11.1____32.7
A-3-4C-5___11.22+(-2.11)+3.88=12.99____10.2____31.3

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-2-3-4C_______9.0_____22.9
2-3-4C-5_______9.4_____23.9
2-3-4-4________9.0_____23.6
A-2-3-5________9.3_____24.2
3-4-4-5________9.1_____24.2
A-3-4C-5_______9.7_____25.6

A-2-3-4C is best for expected averages by 0.52pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 4D-5 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3389 votes)

Saturday 4:14 PM
Flush plus a 5 in my crib. What's not to like?
Tigger23505

Joined: October 2022 (164 votes)

Saturday 8:13 PM
My problem today is my persistent habit of not considering suit. Had I seen the club flush opportunities I would have dumped A4d. Probably still lead 4c and wait to see what happens.