Tuesday 3:41 AM

In order to make a safer discard, I would split up the run yes, Scott. 3 lead from the 3-2-6 combo.

3-4-6-6 with its 6-6-4 five trap interested me also.

Tuesday 5:28 AM

RP is bicuspid at +4/-1: dealer is in marginal position to win in n with good cards, but my own surplus is very small and I need to get past 69, ideally as far as possible.

I decided starting with 8 was worth more than keeping the run with a 6 or 9, and the 24 has a little negative delta with us holding a 3 and a 9. Didn’t actually do a total count with this puzzle, but even if the runs were a tiny bit better for hand value, figured the crib could not be ignored, and 24 is safer on that front than 66 or 69.

Per Liam this is far and away the favorite. Pegging considerations aren’t going to knock it down with those numbers.

Defense to the cut. Would lead the... six of diamonds, I guess, saving the three for an out if dealer holds all mid-cards and threatens to trap the other six or the nine on the second play series, as well as to potentially break up dealer ploys at the end of the first series. The problem with this thinking is that trapping a three is one of those ploys, but my sense is that this is not enough of a risk to outweigh the other considerations in keeping the three. May well be wrong there though.

Tuesday 5:38 AM

I think we have to keep the points today to ensure we get to out 3rd street position. 2-4 a bit less dangerous with us holding one of the 3s and a 9.

Tuesday 5:46 AM

Even if our Crib, bust up the Run with Toss (2 3). As Pone, let's lead a 6 Card from the 18-Point wonder.

Tuesday 5:56 AM

Another pregnant 3s problem. My crib, the 66 is going in. Your crib, how about 24? Lead a 6.

Tuesday 6:22 AM

Not this time!

Tuesday 6:38 AM

This is an easy one today. Thanks for your comments.

Tuesday 6:43 AM

I went thru pegging scenarios with 2-3-6-6, Naw I will keep the points albeit the 3 6 9 inprobilities.dec

Tuesday 7:07 AM

What I appreciate about this puzzle is right out the Ras 101 decision methodology. The first question to ask is what do the pegs tell you. Horus lays it out above or another way is to extrapolate ..99*-110..so…we need to get on to 3rd street and do so with a toss across the board that is not too self destructive.

Tuesday 7:14 AM

No real defensive throw available without breaking up our hand. So 24 it is. Hit a rare 18 hand.

Tuesday 7:56 AM

3-6-9... nice cut! Not tossing 2-3. Didn't want to toss 6-9, although I did ponder that (it was my second choice)

Tuesday 9:13 AM

100% with the crowd today. Keeping 8 pts is no contest here. With the 6 cut, we are in terrific shape providing that dealer doesn't have a hand of equivalent strength.

Tuesday 9:34 AM

What I nice cut! As said before, not too worried discarding 2-4 with the 3 in our hand and the 9s.

Tuesday 10:41 AM

As n/d at hole 63, need to reach 3rd street CPZ (69-73). The lowest scoring discards among these six cards are 4/9 and 2/9. Not interested in retaining less than six points and dealer is short of 3rd Street CPZ by one hole. Pegs, these six cards, and the starter card all echo in unison. Lead the 6D, if dealer has a six spot, the card on the deck will motivate pairing. Often in this game, a good decision is rewarded. The 6 is one of those which gives us a cool 18 points. There are only four hands which score 18 without the right Jack or a flush: 2-2-3-4-4, A-7-7-7-8, 3-6-6-6-9,????? What might the one in question be? It matters not which strategy is chosen (defense or offense, holding 3-6-6-9 has the edge.

Tuesday 11:44 AM

Had the pregnant 3's been 2-3-4-6-9-9 I would have kept 2-3-4-6(9-9). But I can remember Ras saying with this hand of pregnant 3's, if you can start with at least 8 points, keep the 3's', 6's, and 9's. And that definitely puts me in the next zone as Dealer.

With my 18 point barnburner, I will lead the 6d and play off, unless of course s/he pairs it.

Tuesday 1:32 PM

I'll compare 3-6-6-9 (2-4), 2-3-4-6 (6-9) and 2-3-4-9 (6-6):

3-6-6-9: 8pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.33) = 2¾pts

2-3-4-6: 5pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -1¼pts

2-3-4-9: 5pts - 6¾pts (Schell: 7.08) = -1¾pts

Potential:

3-6-6-9: Improves with 333, 66, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 14/18pts with all cuts.

2-3-4-6: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/11/12pts with 222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 999 = 18 cuts.

2-3-4-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 66, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/12pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 66, 999 = 18 cuts.

Position:

We only need 7pts to reach 3rd street positional hole while Dealer is 2pts short of it so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

2-3-4-6 is a good pegging hand with 3 low cards and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven. So I think it will beg best playing Offense.

Summary:

3-6-6-9 is best for starting value by 4pts over 2-3-4-6 but the latter has guaranteed improvement and 18 cuts for 9-12pts compared with 8 cuts for 14/18pts with 3-6-6-9. Also it should peg much better so I'll throw a 6-9.

Tuesday 1:43 PM

At 63-68* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W4 %____W5 %
3-6-6-9____9.22+(-2.67)+(-4.72)= 1.83____26.2____41.2
2-3-4-6____8.37+(-2.59)+(-5.82)=(-0.04)___27.1____37.7
2-3-6-6____6.93+(-2.74)+(-4.25)=(-0.06)___19.2____36.4

Defense________L4 %____L5 %
3-6-6-9_________37.0____43.1
2-3-4-6_________44.2____48.3
2-3-6-6_________35.7____49.2

3-6-6-9 is best for expected averages by 1.87pts over 2-3-4-6 and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2-4 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead a 6 and play Defense:

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Pts.
6______________________(-2.03)
3______________________(-2.15)
9______________________(-2.21)