Wednesday 3:08 AM

Six points rather than eight, but I didn't want to risk 2-3 or 5-10. Perhaps I should've been braver.

   

Wednesday 4:32 AM

The other Al Miller adage, "if you need points, take them. Either toss 23 or 5Q and start with 8. My gut tells me 23 is better right now if I want hole 95

   

Wednesday 4:59 AM

We need to maximize our scoring potential from this position-this hand accomplishes that with a very strong possibility of also garnering a few pegging points-obviously I’m not a fan of throwing 5-Q in the crib at any time but with dealer only at peg 80 we can be pretty confident it won’t be a fatal blow

   

Wednesday 5:10 AM

I'm in defensive mode today.

   

Wednesday 5:35 AM

This position is extremely offensive. We have a miniscule one point surplus to win by riding the "26 wave", while opponent has a strong lead to win if we underscore (+11 for n+1 at 80), and is sixteen points short to win on the front-end. That means there is not much to fear from offense, with dealer so short in the one way, and little to gain on defense, since he's so well-positioned on the back end. The way forward is to push down the board.

Accordingly, I kept the flush. 5TQQ has a higher max but stays at 8 points on most cuts, while the flush is more likely to score 10+ and also has many strong cuts, like the one we got today.

Continuing on offense in the pegging, I'd lead the three and go for a 15-2, an unimaginative play but it seems most likely to nab some points. But look forward to other comments on this.

   

Wednesday 6:42 AM

Hmmmm maybe today I should have kept the flush. I don't think I can go out next deal, so I need to slow down the game (easier to slow down the game vs speed it up). Defence for me

   

Wednesday 7:02 AM

Positional play. My crib next offense. Three lead think opponents will play by the book here. I like so far where we are. dec

   

Wednesday 7:51 AM

Hole 96 or bust.

   

Wednesday 7:55 AM

On the "Business End" of Third Street, it's initially appearing to be a difficult choice among: Retain Eight and take away Fifteen-Two vs hold Eight take away Toss Two-Three, OR; do we simply Keep (3 5 Q Q) and Toss Deuce-Ten? 🎨

At many places on the board, we should hold onto the points, probably with the FLUSH. But what shall we do HERE AND NOW? What a splendid Cribbage Puzzle on a particularly cold Winter Morning on this First Day of February. ⛄

Our Dealer Opponent is 'shy' of having reached an Optimal Position, so it's very tempting to try to keep it that way with Toss (2 T) today. However, we need to meet our OWN GOAL, which is Ten Holes Down That Board! 🎯

If we can become the Next Dealer "at or beyond" Hole 96, we should have a Positional Advantage, even if we 'cough up' a large Crib 'over the board' during this deal. 💢

"Twice Bitten, Why Be Shy?" we might venture forth (because we cannot remember our platitudes?!), so let's "Seal the Deal" with the Clubs, Baby, and Toss (5s Qd)! 🦦

After the Deuce Cut, we should try NOT to be haunted by the fact that we almost sent a Deuce into the Enemy Crib, because at least we didn't ever contemplate the extremely hazardous Toss (2 3)! 🌋

If we were being Defensive, we would likely lead the Trey, but since we now have Fourteen Points in our Fabulous Hand, we're going to continue on the Offensive with "All Guns Blazing" today, so let's lead the Ten "T" Card from our assortment of Clubs. ♣

   

Wednesday 8:04 AM

what do the pegs say ..86-80*…96*-96…112*-106…so offense today …keep the flush

   

Wednesday 8:21 AM

I can afford for dealer to score more than their average here if I make it well into 4th street. Keeping the flush and plenty of cuts to improve this, along with better peggers enables me to toss a more dangerous discard (5 Q). It is not as dangerous as (2 3), which limits my opportunities too much. Therefore, the flush it is.....

   

Wednesday 8:50 AM

I am not with the herd today. I love flushes but not at the cost of tossing 5-Q to a dealer’s crib. Once I arrive at this decision point, I could not send suited 2-3 either. I end up being out of the herd.
Excellent puzzle that forced me to decide. As some of the experienced player commented on past threads, my preference to give a dealer Zero zip nada…. May hurt me here.

   

Wednesday 9:34 AM

I would have to have a lot more points in four cards I keep before I would put 2-3 into the dealer's crib. Now that is decided what do I keep? The flush just seems to have a lot going for it so I will risk Q-5.

   

Wednesday 1:45 PM

I'm more afraid of tossing 2-3 to my opponent's crib than I am of tossing 5-X. This cut gives me enough points to make my next dealing position (100), so I'll take only safe pegs.

   

Wednesday 2:14 PM

The pegs say offense. The cards say the same. Great cut. This is where I differ from one of my mentors JQT. Now that I know I will be dealing at 100 or better, I will switch to defense. The starter tells me so. That, plus knowing I gave the Dealer a discard that averages 7.22(Ras), and 7.41(Schell.

   

Wednesday 2:48 PM

I'll compare 5-10-Q-Q (2-3), 2-3-10-QC (5-QD) and 3-5-Q-Q (2-10):

5-10-Q-Q: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.33) = +½pt

2-3-10-QC: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +½pt

3-5-Q-Q: 6pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = +1½pts

Potential:

5-10-Q-Q: Improves with 555 + 13xXs = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 12/14/16pts with 555, 101010, JJJJ, QQ = 12 cuts.

2-3-10-QC: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555 + 13xxs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 12/11/13/14pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 101010, JJJJ, QQ = 26 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

3-5-Q-Q: Improves with 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777 + 13xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with 222, 4444, 555, QQ = 12 cuts.

Position:

We're at 86pts so we're on target to reach 4th street positional hole for our next deal. However opponent is 10pts past 3rd street positional hole and also on average should reach 96pts. We'll have the advantage as Dealer but every point past 96pts will increase our chances of winning so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think the flush should peg best with two low card and two high cards plus it will be hard to read.

Summary:

3-5-Q-Q has the best starting value by 1pt but even though 2-3-10-QC and 3-5-Q-Q have the same number of cuts for improvement 2-3-10-QC has 26 cuts for 12-14pts while 3-5-Q-Q only has 12 cuts for 9-12pts. 2-3-10-QC also has an additional 0.20pt for a club cut and should peg better as well. So I'll throw the 5-QD.

   

Wednesday 2:52 PM

At 86-80* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W2 %____W3 %
3-5-Q-Q_____7.96+1.35+(-4.30)=5.01_____5.9____52.7
2-3-10-QC__10.80+1.35+(-7.18)=4.97____12.7____65.7
2-5-Q-Q_____7.70+1.30+(-4.32)=4.68_____5.1____49.7
2-3-5-QC____7.09+1.61+(-4.41)=4.29_____5.4____50.9
5-10-Q-Q____9.91+1.30+(-7.09)=4.12____12.9____61.1

Offense______L2 %____L3 %
3-5-Q-Q_______1.2____18.3
2-3-10-QC_____3.1____15.9
2-5-Q-Q_______1.2____19.8
2-3-5-QC______2.0____20.9
5-10-Q-Q______3.0____18.5

3-5-Q-Q is best for expected averages but only by 0.04pt. over the flush but the flush is very much best for Win % and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-QD to discard.

After the 2 cut I'lead The 10 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Pts.
10__________________1.35
Q___________________1.30
3___________________1.06
2___________________0.98