Wednesday 3:20 AM

Tough spot to be in. K lead?

   

Wednesday 3:58 AM

Can’t win without winning. Did not like breaking things up for the sake of defensive pegging, because the disparity between 5TQK and something like A25K on that front is not great enough to justify the risk of failing to count out if we do get to count. 5xxx is vulnerable to various attacks, but then again dealer will be motivated to hold an unconventional hand (“one of each”), and high ranked cards can stifle the pegging… sometimes, anyway.

   

Wednesday 4:47 AM

Figuring only hope is to not them peg out, meaning I have to get something even if I do short my hand a couple points. Kept Ace for any shot at a last card or 31 shot and hoping for to be lucky from there. But either way, not looking good for my team.

   

Wednesday 5:34 AM

Need to keep enough to win if I keep him/her to the minimum 1 point. Every one keeps A's & K's in this situation.

   

Wednesday 5:38 AM

This was my hold and something useless got cut. I held the dealer to 1 hole but died in the dead hole. So mission accomplished sort of, but the result wasnt.

   

Wednesday 6:40 AM

Have to keep 6 points so I don't fall short. Leading the T as I know where 2 of them are.

   

Wednesday 6:44 AM

Needing Six Points as Pone is a task we should be able to perform most of the time, however; with the Dealer sitting at Hole 119 and just needing Two Holes to peg out, our challenge is one of being both heroic and lucky.

Our first hurdle is that the Dealer has nearly a 9% chance of getting a Jack Cut. And if not, our problems are still just beginning.

We were dealt Six Points in the form of (5 T Q K), and since we do have one 5 Card, this makes leading an "X" Card a bit safer (it also makes leading the 5 Card slightly safer as well!).

The real problem inherent in this puzzle is that by retaining one of those "Small" Cards alongside our 5 Card as in (A 5 X X), while we might reduce the Dealer's odds of pegging out by a slight margin, we would possibly then also be then required to peg a few holes ourselves.

Thus, I believe we are forced to Toss (A 2) today.

After the Ten "T" Card Cut, we now have ... well, it doesn't matter, since we had enough before. But let's lead the Ten "T" Card. We could also lead ... the 5 Card!!

Wordle 634 4/6 (brush it off, and do better tomorrow)

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Wednesday 7:18 AM

The odds of holding the dealer to one peg are low, but if we do, we need the points. One exception would be both players are at 120; neither hand will be counted. Another would be when we hold a hand where points are assured with the cut; i e A256.

   

Wednesday 9:07 AM

I cannot see anyway of keeping the dealer from pegging out if I keep 5-10-Q-K. So I went with a keep of 4 points, with the hope of getting a cut for 6. I will lead the 2, assuming the dealer will be reluctant to pair it.

   

Wednesday 9:39 AM

Don't know if it is a trick question - but keep all 6 pts and pray that you can only hold dealer to 1 peg (very unlikely!).

   

Wednesday 10:56 AM

Lets see probability of countout if we get that far 50/50 23 cuts add on 23 do not (Jacks included). Will they have a hand count like totally seventeen or eighteen maybe not but if they are thinking of pegging out that might be possible. I would think holding then out would be like at least five percent of less. That's my version of guessing Hals numbers probably way off. After the cut lead the King and hopefully breath and get ready for the next play. dec

   

Wednesday 2:01 PM

We need to score 6pts before Dealer scores 2pts or hold them to the guaranteed 1pt. 5-10-Q-K scores the required 6pts but is not ideal for the pegging. A-2-5-X will improve with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 13xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3%. So we're highly likely to hold 4pts or more and would need to peg 2pts and keep Dealer from pegging 2pts. I feel this may be a better approach than holding 6pts and trying to stop Dealer pegging 2pts with 5-10-Q-K. I think the K may be the best tenth card to keep so I'll throw the 10-Q.

   

Wednesday 2:56 PM

At 115-119* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

_______________Dealer Peg Out %_______Hold Out %
A-5-Q-K_____________77.2_________________81.2
A-5-10-Q____________79.2_________________81.9
2-5-Q-K_____________80.4_________________84.4
A-2-5-10____________80.8_________________75.8
A-2-5-K_____________81.2_________________75.3
A-2-5-Q_____________81.2_________________75.3
A-5-10-K____________81.6_________________82.5
A-2-Q-K_____________82.4_________________26.9
2-5-10-Q____________82.8_________________85.1
2-5-10-K____________83.6_________________85.0
A-2-10-Q____________84.0_________________27.2
A-2-10-K____________86.4_________________25.1
A-10-Q-K____________88.8_________________21.5
5-10-Q-K____________92.8________________100.0
2-10-Q-K____________94.4_________________22.3

A-5-10-Q has the lowest chance of Dealer Pegging Out and a good chance of Holding Enough so I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense.

Lead______Dealer's Pegging Pts.____Win %____Loss %
A_______________(-0.84)_____________8.7______40.8
5_______________(-0.90)_____________4.5______45.7
10______________(-0.91)____________14.5______41.8
Q_______________(-0.97)____________14.0______45.2

Although the A lead is lowest for Dealer's Pegging Points the 10 lead is best for Win %s and second lowest for Loss %s.

   

Thursday 4:45 AM

NB. As Ras points out I discarded 10. Pegging results should have been:

After the 10 cut I'll lead the Q and play Defense.

Lead______Dealer's Pegging Pts.____Win %____Loss %
A_______________(-0.84)_____________8.4______41.1
5_______________(-0.90)_____________4.6______45.6
Q_______________(-0.94)____________14.5______43.0
K_______________(-0.99)____________14.4______46.0

Although the A lead is lowest for Dealer's Pegging Points the Q lead is best for Win %s and second lowest for Loss %s.