March 15, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by Gougie00
115-119*  ?
Total votes: 290
Gougie00Interesting puzzle because holding KQ105 leaves me vulnerable to being pegged out on, and A25Q will leave me short if I am able to prevent the dealer from pegging out.
3786 votes

Joined: June 2013

Wednesday 3:20 AM
Tough spot to be in. K lead?
1163 votes

Joined: December 2017

Wednesday 3:58 AM
Can’t win without winning. Did not like breaking things up for the sake of defensive pegging, because the disparity between 5TQK and something like A25K on that front is not great enough to justify the risk of failing to count out if we do get to count. 5xxx is vulnerable to various attacks, but then again dealer will be motivated to hold an unconventional hand (“one of each”), and high ranked cards can stifle the pegging… sometimes, anyway.
horus93 says: As for the lead, it's desperation defense so I'd lead the ten.
69 votes

Joined: February 2023

Wednesday 4:47 AM
Figuring only hope is to not them peg out, meaning I have to get something even if I do short my hand a couple points. Kept Ace for any shot at a last card or 31 shot and hoping for to be lucky from there. But either way, not looking good for my team.
3220 votes

Joined: October 2007

Wednesday 5:34 AM
Need to keep enough to win if I keep him/her to the minimum 1 point. Every one keeps A's & K's in this situation.
Eolus619 says: morning pogo..i suppose it depends on the six cards the dealer is dealt… that said…would you as dealer be inclined to keep a five from this board position?
5589 votes

Joined: March 2008

Wednesday 5:38 AM
This was my hold and something useless got cut. I held the dealer to 1 hole but died in the dead hole. So mission accomplished sort of, but the result wasnt.
Eolus619 says: Mourning Gougie00 ..this keep is worth six it would get Pone out if he/she survived the pegging..was your score 114 in the actual game?
Gougie00 says: I always think I can peg 2 holes. 3 might be a stretch. If I was at 114 instead, I would hold the A25Q, and try to parlay 2A for points. This puzzle is a hard nut to crack regardless.
Eolus619 says: deed it is a challenge!!
MiketheExpert says: I am the opposite :) If anything I tend to underestimate my chances of pegging 2 or 3, with the realization that pegging 3 is usually much harder. This is probably the opposite from most players who probably overestimate their chances of pegging both....But the chances of pegging this amount while at the same TIME holding dealer to under 2,3, or 4 pts (whatever the case may be) is even a whole OTHER ball of wax!
MiketheExpert says: I usually always think I can peg 1, so here I might actually overestimate compared to the number of times I actually end up pegging 0 as dealer!
MiketheExpert says: **as pone** above
2883 votes

Joined: November 2014

Wednesday 6:40 AM
Have to keep 6 points so I don't fall short. Leading the T as I know where 2 of them are.
4026 votes

Joined: October 2008

Wednesday 6:44 AM
Needing Six Points as Pone is a task we should be able to perform most of the time, however; with the Dealer sitting at Hole 119 and just needing Two Holes to peg out, our challenge is one of being both heroic and lucky.

Our first hurdle is that the Dealer has nearly a 9% chance of getting a Jack Cut. And if not, our problems are still just beginning.

We were dealt Six Points in the form of (5 T Q K), and since we do have one 5 Card, this makes leading an "X" Card a bit safer (it also makes leading the 5 Card slightly safer as well!).

The real problem inherent in this puzzle is that by retaining one of those "Small" Cards alongside our 5 Card as in (A 5 X X), while we might reduce the Dealer's odds of pegging out by a slight margin, we would possibly then also be then required to peg a few holes ourselves.

Thus, I believe we are forced to Toss (A 2) today.

After the Ten "T" Card Cut, we now have ... well, it doesn't matter, since we had enough before. But let's lead the Ten "T" Card. We could also lead ... the 5 Card!!

Wordle 634 4/6 (brush it off, and do better tomorrow)

Eolus619 says: well…when it takes you, me and my wife four is not a clean sweep
2497 votes

Joined: March 2009

Wednesday 7:18 AM
The odds of holding the dealer to one peg are low, but if we do, we need the points. One exception would be both players are at 120; neither hand will be counted. Another would be when we hold a hand where points are assured with the cut; i e A256.
Eolus619 says: Morning dealer would you be inclined to keep a five in this situation if the dealt cards were “right”
wasa says: I'm not Jazz, but if I were dealer by default I'm keeping my 4 lowest cards. If I have pairs (or triples) I'd probably keep the "one of each" lowest cards. Would ponder though.... maybe only keep one of "matched" cards, like a 7-8 or a 6-9, as a 7 will score on a 7 or 8 lead....
Eolus619 says: thx wasa!!!
Jazzselke says: Agree with Wasa
714 votes

Joined: April 2021

Wednesday 9:07 AM
I cannot see anyway of keeping the dealer from pegging out if I keep 5-10-Q-K. So I went with a keep of 4 points, with the hope of getting a cut for 6. I will lead the 2, assuming the dealer will be reluctant to pair it.
Gougie00 says: The dealer will pair the 2 in heartbeat.
winesteward48 says: I forgot they were only two out while I was typing.
985 votes

Joined: April 2021

Wednesday 9:39 AM
Don't know if it is a trick question - but keep all 6 pts and pray that you can only hold dealer to 1 peg (very unlikely!).
MiketheExpert says: And now with the 10 cut, might as well match this with the 10 lead!
6212 votes

Joined: April 2008

Wednesday 10:56 AM
Lets see probability of countout if we get that far 50/50 23 cuts add on 23 do not (Jacks included). Will they have a hand count like totally seventeen or eighteen maybe not but if they are thinking of pegging out that might be possible. I would think holding then out would be like at least five percent of less. That's my version of guessing Hals numbers probably way off. After the cut lead the King and hopefully breath and get ready for the next play. dec
Jason19 says: Agree.
5483 votes

Joined: October 2007

Wednesday 2:01 PM
We need to score 6pts before Dealer scores 2pts or hold them to the guaranteed 1pt. 5-10-Q-K scores the required 6pts but is not ideal for the pegging. A-2-5-X will improve with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 13xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3%. So we're highly likely to hold 4pts or more and would need to peg 2pts and keep Dealer from pegging 2pts. I feel this may be a better approach than holding 6pts and trying to stop Dealer pegging 2pts with 5-10-Q-K. I think the K may be the best tenth card to keep so I'll throw the 10-Q.
MiketheExpert says: I agree with the dealer peg-out% being lower than with 5-10-Q-K. But holding only 2 pts initially, the question is, is this enough to compensate for the fact that we may also have to peg 2 in many of these cases....and, because I think dealer will be inclined to hold many low cards, what would be our best lead in case we need to peg 2? I guess the K? The A or 2 might be a "safer" lead, but not conducive if we need to score pone pegging points, or even not that much "safer", due to the bias of low cards which is quite likely to be paired if we lead one of is an interesting dilemma to be sure, but I wonder if we are just grasping at straws no matter how we look at this...
5194 votes

Joined: February 2008

Wednesday 2:56 PM
At 115-119* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Dealer Peg Out %s and Hold Enough %s are:

_______________Dealer Peg Out %_______Hold Out %

A-5-10-Q has the lowest chance of Dealer Pegging Out and a good chance of Holding Enough so I'll select 2-K to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead the 10 and play Defense.

Lead______Dealer's Pegging Pts.____Win %____Loss %

Although the A lead is lowest for Dealer's Pegging Points the 10 lead is best for Win %s and second lowest for Loss %s.
Ras2829 says: Looks like you discarded the 10. Will you lead Q or K? Without the 10, would not the Ace be the better lead?
bbaer1 says: An eye-opener of a puzzle
5194 votes

Joined: February 2008

Thursday 4:45 AM
NB. As Ras points out I discarded 10. Pegging results should have been:

After the 10 cut I'll lead the Q and play Defense.

Lead______Dealer's Pegging Pts.____Win %____Loss %

Although the A lead is lowest for Dealer's Pegging Points the Q lead is best for Win %s and second lowest for Loss %s.