Thursday 3:11 AM

For me, it was either (7 7) or (5 10). I flipped a coin.

Thursday 3:28 AM

Another tricky hand vs crib puzzle from ras. Is 5T in own crib so much stronger than 77 that it’s worth keeping a hand that scores 4 on nearly six cuts in ten? Well, A59T is not really much better, scoring 6 or less on about two cuts in three.

Holding these cards on the opening hand, I want to be able to play offense if the cut is bad. A779’s two-card sixteen is okay, but a five in hand is surely worth more. Of course it could do well against mid-cards, but mid-card hands are less common than nickle and dime hands. Even so, I think the crib value of 5T will bridge the gap today. Pairs to own crib are famously disappointing, and there is some negative delta too. Checking Liam, tossing 5T to keep A779 is 0.4 better than tossing 77 and holding A59T in pure hand+crib, so I doubt pegging will put it over the top.

After the cut my biggest concern would be to keep myself from smirking. Defense in the pegging. To an ace, would play the nine, although perhaps some sort of case could be made for playing the seven, since it's relatively unlikely to be pairable, and 7-9 is safer than 7-7. To a two or three would play a seven. To a four, I would rather play a nine than a seven, because people love to hold pairs so much that this seems to give up fewer points ime. To a five, would play the nine rather than the ace to hold more diverse cards. I'm not so afraid of my ace getting trapped on a five lead because if pone held cards that could trap an ace he either would have led one of them, or led a high card. Would fifteen a six lead, pair a seven, and play the ace on an eight or nine - an eight or nine lead would definitely make me a little nervous, but so it goes. A tenth card lead is interesting. Dump the ace and risk a fifteen, but save it from getting trapped? Or play the nine - or a seven if the lead is a ten? Lately I've been inclined to dump the ace in that sort of situation, but am not at all sure about it.

Thursday 3:36 AM

Another fine First Dealer RAS Puzzle: we hope you're doing well this fine soon-to-be-spring day, Sir!

Here we are being challenged, or teased, which is better: Toss (5 T) or Toss (7 7)? We learned in a recent RAS Puzzle that Toss (7 7) is no slouch as a Dealer Discard, but can it once again rise up to the heights of Toss (5 T)?!

If only our 5 Card was a Heart Suit, then Toss (7 7) would be the automatic Dealer Discard! But actually, even without a FLUSH, I can see some players maybe leaning toward Toss (7 7) if we were in some close, endgame position, and didn't want to get "all tangled up" by those 7 Cards during the pegging.

All PAIRS have inherent "Negative Delta," in that in order to magnify their power, often "like" cards are necessary. To boost a PAIR of 7 Cards requires either another 7 Card (and we were dealt HALF of these!), or an Ace (of which we were dealt One of these), or a 5-6 duo, or an 8 Card.

Meanwhile, Toss (5 T) gets boosted by Three other 5 Cards, or Fifteen extant Ten (or "X") Cards! Therefore, I believe Toss (5 T) is clearly the superior Dealer Discard.

But what about the Pegging, I hear you screaming?! Grabbing an early (15=2) often merely results in Pone PAIRING our 5 Card, and since we have no "Magic Eleven" or 6 Card to follow up with (31=2), I think it's best to Toss (5 T) today.

After the 8 Card Cut, we now hold Fourteen Lovely Points in our Hand, with prospects for an average Crib. Those who tried Toss (7 7) today must have seen that the "Twenty-Four-Point Crib Jar" is stuff full o' Cash! 💰

Wordle 635 3/6 (whaddya think of them apples!)

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Thursday 3:45 AM

5-T from me.

Thursday 4:20 AM

Good decisions are often rewarded by a nice cut.

Thursday 4:31 AM

Possible 14, 5X to the crib, what's not to like. Seems like I hold this hand an out-of-pattern number of times, not always with today's result! (I normally do not comment on the cut card, because it doesn't necessarily validate the decision or the reasoning).

Thursday 4:32 AM

This looks like a play on hand in all three aspects. dec

Thursday 4:59 AM

When in doubt, 5-10.

Thursday 5:35 AM

It’s 5-10 for me. Too much potential in the crib to pass up. Ras’s evidence says 3 of 10 games are lost on the first hand. After the cut, Pone may become “added” to this statistical evidence this day

Thursday 7:50 AM

This might have been harder for me than for other commenters. First reaction was to toss the 7-7 keeping the connecting 9-T and I have all four cards in my hand working together. Obviously the A-7-7 all work together, but the 9 really doesn't work with the A, and having a gap card between the 7 and 9 means that I am "hoping" for a cut, which often is a bad choice mathematically.

In the end, I always want a 5 in my crib, so that worked out. Obviously the cribbage gods like me today (or at least on deal 1) as that gapper 8 was cut. Yay me!

Thursday 8:18 AM

Perhaps Ras is looking for me to keep the 10-A Two -Card Magic Eleven, and the Three-Card Sweet sixteen. But why would Pone at this score, dump his Five early?

Thursday 8:50 AM

Many of my opponents try to avoid putting an 8 or 7 in the crib. Often K-10 or K-9 are sent there. So, let's put 10-5 in the crib.

Thursday 11:23 AM

Yeah for the cut! I liked it this way also. Although, the 7's may also have worked for the crib. I prefer the pegging arrangement of (A 7 7 9), and now I may want to take full advantage of my cut for 14 pts and what should be a higher than average crib.

Thursday 3:18 PM

I think its likely to be between A-7-7-9 (5-10) and A-5-9-10 (7-7) but perhaps A-5-7-7 (9-10) would be worth looking at as well:

A-7-7-9: 4pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 10½pts

A-5-9-10: 4pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 9¾pts

A-5-7-7: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.29) = 8½pts

Potential:

A-7-7-9: Improves with AAA, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 999 = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 77, 8888 = 9 cuts.

A-5-9-10: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 555, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 20 cuts.

A-5-7-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/10/12pts with AAA, 2222, 3333, 6666, 77, 8888 = 21 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

With a low card, a 5 and two middle cards I think A-5-7-7 will peg best.

Summary:

A-7-7-9 is best for starting value by ¾pt over A-5-9-10 and 2pts over A-5-7-7. However A-5-7-7 has the most cuts for improvement and 21 cuts for 8-12pts. I think it also will peg best. Will it catch up the 2pts on A-7-7-9? I think it will so I'll throw the suited 9-10.

Thursday 3:21 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-7-7-9____5.91+(-2.09)+6.61=10.43____36.9____50.8
A-5-9-10___6.57+(-1.96)+5.75=10.36____37.9____50.6
A-5-7-7____7.09+(-2.22)+4.26= 9.13____35.0____48.8

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-7-7-9________24.5____23.1
A-5-9-10_______26.2____23.9
A-5-7-7________25.5____25.1

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Thursday 8:05 PM

Note how close the numbers are on A-5-9-10 and A-7-7-9 retentions. See HalscribCLX analysis above. Agree with 5- discard if choosing defense to inlcude the pegging. If choosing offense to include the pegging holding A-5-9-10 has the edge because of the greater potential hand value and the offensive pegging. Crib value would still favor the 5-Q by about .7 though hand/pegging values have the edge by 1.5 points. Guess the message is to be flexible enough to accommodate these differences dependent on choice of strategy.