March 28, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by mfetchct425
0*-0  ?
52%
41%
5%
0%
Total votes: 285
mfetchct425Took a survey of this hand at grass roots. It was about 50/50 between two options.
glmccuskey
4095 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:13 AM
I think we hold to many small cards to expect much help from 2-3. I normally like 3-3-4-5 but that leaves 2-J, which I don’t like. Not many wrong answers here but I’ll go this way.
james500
3917 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:23 AM
I see three options, J-2, J-5 or, my preference, the flush with 2-3 to my crib.
Duby84 says: That was my choice !
dec
6352 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 3:46 AM
I bet the flush was #3. Almost did #2. I always like J-5 as a discard. dec
SallyAnn3 says: CONGRATS on GOLD last night in ACC, Dan!
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:01 AM
A novice might think that 0*-0 was a neutral, colorless place for a puzzle, but of course it is the most heavily debated score in cribbage. Colvert advocated for heavy defense for dealer unless the cards were awful, not even taking the “fifteen” on a x lead when holding 56, and offense for pone. Schell read the position as being balanced between offense and defense, with the cards determining which way to go. I’m somewhere inbetween them, and this follows directly from positing a long cycle of 26.3-26.4 points, as opposed to 26/25. But with cards like this, I think pretty much any positional player would agree that defense is the way to go.

That made today’s choice especially easy. Even if one of the other keeps is better for pure hand+crib, it won’t be sufficiently better to outweigh the value of holding the Jack as an “out” in the pegging to avoid getting trapped into vicious runs. Checking Liam, keep 2334 is better by about 0.6 in pure hand+crib because 23 has negative delta, but I’d gladly trade 0.6 in average hand+crib to hold a safer pegging hand at this score and with these cards.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:35 AM
We start a new game as the Dealer, and we have a pleasant choice to make between retaining Eight Points to start via a Double Run and Toss (5 J), or Seven Points to begin with a FLUSH and Toss (2 3). A third choice that some may include is a Double Run of Ten Points with Toss (2 J).

Toss (2 J) seems to be a weak discard, with an absurd amount of Negative Delta, since we'd be placing a Deuce in our Crib and holding two Treys in our Hand. Toss (2 J) is what we would discard if we were Pone! Toss (2 J) is especially poor compared with those other ideas, and it's a discard choice we can easily rule out, so the decision comes down to Toss (2 3) vs Toss (5 J).

On the surface, I generally prefer Toss (2 3) over Toss (5 X), but the latter does allow us to begin with an additional One Point in our Hand, and it does contain points in the Crib, as opposed to just promising points. Toss (2 3) also would incur some Negative Delta, as we were dealt two Treys.

Also, when the "X" Card is a Jack, specifically Toss (5 J), this lends an extra quarter-point Nobs Cut potential that gently pushes Toss (5 J) higher in Dealer Discard Value than the venerated Toss (2 3) Dealer Discard!

The Double Run of Keep (2 3 3 4) would seem to also offer a chance for expanded growth, since Eight Cuts (222, 33, 444) will DOUBLE (or in some cases nearly double) the Hand Score to Fifteen or Sixteen Points.

However, if we Keep (3c 4c 5c Jc), Nine Cuts (333, 444, 555) will boost the resultant Hand to an average that is slightly less, but nearly similar, from a Dozen to Sixteen Points. I still prefer Toss (2 3) if all other things are equal, but all other things are NOT quite equal.

Are things however "Equal Enough" such that Toss (2 3) might "shine through" and result in a better, overall decision? It seems doubtful.

It would appear that we are in good shape either way, but I prefer the Double Run for a number of small differences, so let's Toss (5 J) today.

After the Queen of Spades Cut, we now have a Dozen Points in our Hand, with prospects for a very good Crib.
wasa says: Since holding the J in our hand still gives us the 0.25 expected points vs the crib, the "extra quarter-point Nobs cut potential" is moot when it's our crib. To me, the discard tables are skewed a bit when tossing the J to our own crib (as again, we get nobs whether the J is in our hand or our crib....)
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. The flush begins with *Nine Points*, not Seven. Does that change your perspective?
Inushtuk1 says: I agree that (2-3) does contain some negative delta, but still contains as many points in the crib as (5-J).
JQT says: Hello wasa: We often discussed this Jack Suit Effect over the years here on "Hand of the Day" using the term "Intrinsic Points." Of course, this extra scoring, if it occurs, will always get added when we are the Dealer. I was merely saying that this gets reflected in the Crib Value Charts. Refer to the data on: https://blog.cribbagepro.net/2012/10/discarding.html
JQT says: Hello Inushtuk1: I did add up the FLUSH Hand incorrectly; thanks for keeping me honest! This actually makes my perspective view the two ideas as almost dead-equal. I think in the end that I still prefer the Double Run, because we begin with a slightly better Expected Value for the Hand, and we also start with a better Crib Value. On the contrary, I would NOT say that both Toss (5 J) and Toss (2 3) start with as many points! The fact that Toss (2 3) shall ALWAYS generate at least Two Points is NOT THE SAME as saying that Toss (5 J) will ALWAYS begin with Two Points. Let's examine one simple criterion: What happens to the Maximum Score of each Discard Idea when we add just ONE CARD? Toss (5 J) can become Six Points (or Seven Points with Nobs) if we add a 5 Card or a Jack, yet Toss (2 3) can ONLY become Two Points with the addition of any single card! Now, imagine we add TWO CARDS for Maximum Effect? Then add THREE, and call one of these the Cut Card. Interesting enough, Toss (2 3) starts with more POTENTIAL GROWTH than does Toss (5 J)! This is because Toss (2 3) BEGINS WITH NOTHING AT ALL, but shall ALWAYS become at least something (it also has the very powerful "Touching" Cards that can "grow" at either end into a RUN.) But do these two discards CONTAIN THE SAME number of points? I would contend that Toss (5 J), while potentially LESS able to GROW, does indeed CONTAIN MORE. It's partially semantics, but it's also mathematically sound.
JQT says: One Tiny Error: Toss (2 3) can ONLY become Three Points with the addition of any single card!
Inushtuk1 says: Ok John. But Ras has (2-3) at 7.14 and (5-J) at slightly less, and Shell has them both at 7.00
Inushtuk1 says: Ok John. But Ras has (2-3) at 7.14 and (5-J) at slightly less, and Shell has them both at 7.00
JQT says: It's Craig Hessel Discard Utility to the rescue! I believe that Bruce now has this handy utility as well, and it supports FLUSHES! The Negative Delta experienced by Toss (2 3) today, according to Hessel, is minus 0.13, and meanwhile, Toss (5 J) actually has a slight POSITIVE Delta of 0.03, probably because we were not dealt any other "X" Cards. The results are that after Toss (2 3), the Crib Value is 6.82 Points with a Hand Average of 12.24 Points, leading to a Dealer Total of 19.06 Points. Toss (5 J) has Crib Value of 7.05 Points with a Hand Average of 12.39 Points, leading to a Dealer Total of 19.44 Points. Now, if and when Halscrib 'chimes in,' it will also be looking at (probably Defensive) Pegging, as well as Positional Considerations. These are exceedingly close, and played properly, either Hand and Crib should do well for us today. Some players like the ability to 'snag' an immediate 15=2 with the First Card Played as the Dealer, while others prefer NOT to do so, even if holding a 5 Card, as long as a 6 Card sits alongside it. I said that I liked the upside of the Double Run and Toss (5 J) for the Hand as well as the Crib today, but lo and behold, these add 0.15 and 0.23 Points, respectively! It's almost down into the level of "noise" to find the differences.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. Thanks for clearing up just how much negative delta there is with my (2-3). I have to figure out a way to get that Craig Hessel Discard Utility. Well at least I picked a close second.
Ras2829 says: Sure would have kept the flush. Instead went with 5-J discard as am holding no X-point cards and no other fives. Discarding 2-3, am holding 3 and 4, both critical to added value for that discard duo. That gives holding 2-3-3-4 a very slight edge on this day.
Inushtuk1
1480 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:45 AM
The star toss method gave me this choice. It just so happens to have an escape card.
Inushtuk1 says: Excellent puzzle Mike. I may be a victim of flush hypnosis; but every cut but the 9 improves this hand.
Inushtuk1 says: When I first got on this morning, the flush was second best choice. Then it was first. Now it's back to a close second. I'm hoping Halscrib's analysis will prove it to be first or a close second. If I could make close second best choices with every discard my win % would go up.
Gougie00
5724 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 4:52 AM
Not breaking up this doublerun
wasa says: Maybe I need my morning coffee but it appears you did break up a double run to toss a 3-J and kept a 4 card run? Interesting choice....
bbaer1 says: Huh?
Gougie00 says: this is not the 2334 that I thought I clicked on. Sigh.
Eolus619
1336 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:00 AM
GFD needs eight points to maintain the %s. So..start with eight, every cut improves the hand and 5-J to my crib.
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:46 AM
If only we had more decisions like this in cribbage: toss either the 2nd or 3rd best combination to the crib?!? Like the chances for a 12 or 16 point hand, and holding only one face card the prospects for the crib. If concerned about pegging, the decision could be based on the need for a skunk. We could be somewhere between Holes 20-25 after this deal.
wasa
3013 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Tuesday 5:48 AM
Well, I was blinded by the flush. My second choice was keeping 3-3-4-5. Never really considered tossing the 5-J and that's a fault because I should have pondered all three "good" choices today.

Still, it almost always pays to flush.
scottcrib says: #flushblindness
cribbagepogo
3250 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 6:25 AM
Y'all read too much. Watch guys like Rob, Selke, Mike F. Hard knocks.
Inushtuk1 says: "Y'all read too much." I like that. However; just to play devil's advocate; how did those illustrious players get to be so good? I daresay they read and read. But not too much.
cribbagepogo says: I answered it with the last sentence. I didn't mention Ras, too. I watched him learn over the years. Most just read DeLynn's book.
MiketheExpert
1116 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 7:57 AM
Give me the 9-pt flush with a (2 3) discard any day of the week, and I'm a happy camper!
Inushtuk1 says: That's how I saw it too.
MiketheExpert says: (5 J) is certainly the 2nd best choice to me here, even though toss (2 J) starts with a 10-pt double run (3 3 4 5).
MiketheExpert says: (5 J) is in the same vicinity due to all face card cuts adding 4 pts to the double run of (2 3 3 4), and adding at least 2 further pts to the crib (in either case). But going on the philosophy of defense as 1st dealer, I'd rather have the high J as an out also.
JQT says: We all know that any given discard is typically worth more 'over the board' than when placed into our own Crib, and this makes sense because while we are trying to merely BALANCE our Hand and Crib as the Dealer, when we are Pone, we seek to MINIMIZE the Enemy Crib. One interesting way to compare Toss (2 3) with Toss (5 J) therefore is to try (just imagine) giving them to your Opponent! When answering Mike (Inushtuk1) earlier in my own posting about the differences between these essentially EQUAL two Dealer Discards, I highlighted the differences between Starting Value, Growth Potential, and Resultant Crib Value. If we contemplate what might occur 'over the board' just for study purposes, even more differences are revealed, and the Negative Delta associated with Toss (2 3) maybe becomes more apparent. Cribbage is a beautiful game: We have "camps" in which people side, in order, with Toss (2 3) over Toss (5 J) over Toss (7 8), which in many ways resembles the logic of Rock, Paper, Scissors! And regardless of the "camp" you find yourself in: Isn't this a wonderful game?!
MiketheExpert says: Yes, I believe in the final go today, HAL will show the (5 J) to come with a higher expected crib value due to the slight negative delta of toss (2 3). Because the expected hand is ever so slightly higher with the double run (if my calculations are correct, it is 12.13 for the double run, and 12.04 for the flush. So, for offense, the double run would definitely win out. For defense, these numbers may be very close. I'll stick with the flush for strategy purposes being first hand, but I think it will come very close in the final analysis.
winesteward48
832 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Tuesday 8:27 AM
Let's start with the most points, including the crib. Any club as the starter card would have been a bonus.
Falseclaimofgame_
46 votes

Joined: February 2023
 
 
 
Tuesday 9:56 AM
Don’t outsmart yourself.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:10 PM
I'll compare 3C-4-5-J (2-3H), 3-3-4-5 (2-J) and 2-3-3-4 (5-J):

3C-4-5-J: 9pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 15¾pts

3-3-4-5: 10pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.84) = 13¾pts

2-3-3-4: 8pts + 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = 15pts

Potential:

3C-4-5-J: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/13/14/16pts with 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, JJJ = 18 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt for his nob and 1pt for the flush = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

3-3-4-5: Improves with 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 20/21pts with 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888 = 20 cuts.

2-3-3-4: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 12/16/17pts with 222, 33, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well but with a 3-card magic eleven perhaps 3-3-4-5 the best.

Summary:

3C-4-5-J is best for starting value by ¾pt over 2-3-3-4 and an extra 0.39pt. for a club cut but the latter has guaranteed improvement and 38 cuts for 12-17pts. So I'll throw the 5-J.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:46 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
2-3-3-4____12.39+(-2.37)+6.87=16.89____16.1____40.5
3C-4-5-J___12.24+(-2.17)+6.48=16.55____15.6____41.0
3-3-4-5____13.78+(-2.20)+3.15=14.73____12.8____35.9

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-3-4________9.4_____23.3
3C-4-5-J_______8.6_____22.0
3-3-4-5________8.8_____23.3

2-3-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.34pt. although 3C-4-5-J is about even for Win %s and mlower for Loss %s. Even so at the start of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select 5-J to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Tuesday 1:48 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
2-3-3-4____12.39+(-2.37)+6.87=16.89____16.1____40.5
3C-4-5-J___12.24+(-2.17)+6.48=16.55____15.6____41.0
3-3-4-5____13.78+(-2.20)+3.15=14.73____12.8____35.9

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-3-4________9.4_____23.3
3C-4-5-J_______8.6_____22.0
3-3-4-5________8.8_____23.3

2-3-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.34pt. although 3C-4-5-J is about even for Win %s and mlower for Loss %s. Even so at the start of the game I'll decide on expected averages and select 5-J to discard.

After the Q cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
HalscribCLX says: NB. I should have retained 2-3-3-4
HalscribCLX says: NB. I should have retained 2-3-3-4
MiketheExpert says: Seems like the crib difference is high even with the negative delta thrown in there for (2 3), but will leave to the guys with the stats and the collection of empirical data to attest to :) Not sure why my hand average calculations are a bit off, unless the 2 pts for cutting a J is included in there....I guess I'll have to double-check where I went wrong otherwise.
MiketheExpert says: Seems like the crib difference is high even with the negative delta thrown in there for (2 3), but will leave to the guys with the stats and the collection of empirical data to attest to :) Not sure why my hand average calculations are a bit off, unless the 2 pts for cutting a J is included in there....I guess I'll have to double-check where I went wrong otherwise.
JQT says: Having been dealt just One Ten (or "X") Card, the imbalance in both our HAND and CRIB is significant today, as we actually can observe the occurrence of a Positive Delta if we Toss (5 J) instead of Toss (2 3)! Notice that ANY of the Fifteen extant "X" Cards (via the Cut card) will give us an immediate Dozen Points in our Hand, and will simultaneously DOUBLE the pending Crib, from Two Points up to at least Four Points, even BEFORE we consider Pone's Discard. Also, due to this same lack of "X" Cards present, Pone is much more likely to send one or two of these our way, as opposed to a Deuce, Trey, or 4 Card.
JQT says: Having been dealt just One Ten (or "X") Card, the imbalance in both our HAND and CRIB is significant today, as we actually can observe the occurrence of a Positive Delta if we Toss (5 J) instead of Toss (2 3)! Notice that ANY of the Fifteen extant "X" Cards (via the Cut card) will give us an immediate Dozen Points in our Hand, and will simultaneously DOUBLE the pending Crib, from Two Points up to at least Four Points, even BEFORE we consider Pone's Discard. Also, due to this same lack of "X" Cards present, Pone is much more likely to send one or two of these our way, as opposed to a Deuce, Trey, or 4 Card.