April 1, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by MiketheExpert
24-31*  ?
56%
28%
10%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 238
james500
3915 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:14 AM
A bit of a stab in the dark, but it'll be 4-9 from me.
5 lead from 5-9-7 combo.
Eolus619 says: James500…Actually what Bob Dylan would say about this hand and board position is “ it’s not dark yet, but it’s gettin there”
Inushtuk1 says: The 5 lead. Wow! Where did that come from James. We should lead from strength, no?
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:33 AM
We are Pone at Hole 24, trailing the Dealer by Seven Points, and we would need to score TWICE the Pone Average (or Twenty-Points) by completion of this deal to reach our desired target. Meanwhile, the Dealer already sits on Second Street.

Needless to say, we're very unlikely to 'right' all of the wrongs the appear in our Relative Position, and do so during any one specific deal, so our plan should be to "chip away at it" poco a poco, or little by little as this means in Italian.

We could either Toss (4 9) or Toss (4 7) here, and I believe it's way too early in this game to deploy a 'desperation tactic' such as Toss (4 5).

Toss (4 9) looks least damaging in the Enemy Crib, and it leaves us with the better of the two PAIRS, those two 7 Cards. Let's Toss (4 9) today, unsuited of course.

While we cannot hope to gain any ground during such a terrible (or)deal, our plan here should be to 'bide our time' until we can "Go on the Offensive" as the Next Dealer.

After the Queen Cut, we have only Four Points. Let's lead a 7 Card from our PAIR.

Wordle 651 4/6

(In Hindsight: A Fool Could Amble Right On By)

⬛🟨⬛🟨🟨
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛🟩🟨⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Eolus619 says: JQT..your wordle clue..very Dionnne Warwick
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 3:54 AM
Not far enough behind to keep both pairs. Anyway two chances of a double run as is.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 4:35 AM
Positional surpluses and deficits are foggier in the early game than later. Dealer’s lead at 31* is a lot less formidable than it would be if the score were something like the analogous 103-110*, and similarly our deficit is less extreme than it would be at that score, because there is so much board to go, so even though I’m inclined to offense, I’m not willing to bet the farm by tossing 45, because there is a
Jason19 says: Agree.
Gougie00
5722 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:37 AM
A clunker hand. I went as wide as I could. Lead the 7 and ditch the 5 when possible.
dec
6350 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 5:41 AM
Not a point in the game where a hail Mary is needed. 3 6 7 8 cuts would be greatly appreciated. Which seven is closest to toss away finger is my lead. dec
Eolus619 says: dec...i see you are now in the top ten for ecribbage ratings ..congrats..
Inushtuk1 says: Way to go dec.
JQT says: With a fifteen-year presence, and nearly 6000 postings made to the Daily Cribbage Hand to his credit, dec continues to build a stellar reputation and he has earned quite a legacy on this site. We can only hope to see dec and others posting here for another fifteen years!
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 6:40 AM
Agree with all commenters so far, 2 chances for a double-run.
wasa
3011 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 6:42 AM
Top and bottom. Didn't really consider keeping the 2 pairs as would be risking a big crib for an 8 cut
SallyAnn3
902 votes

Joined: March 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 7:51 AM
FYI: we have 2 regular CHOD posters who are in the top 10% of online ACC players for the season, so far! Congrats to: dec #5; scottcrib #10; gougie00 #15 WTG :)
SallyAnn3 says: Yes, that is 3...old copy/pasts snafu.
winesteward48
830 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 8:23 AM
I agree with most of the "deck" of commenters. Too early for a desperation keep.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 8:44 AM
In many cribbage hands, tossing top/bottom cards is correct. So it is this day. Toss the unsuited 4-9, lead the 7D, and take pegs as offered. If it looks reasonably safe, drop that lone 5 second card played and fake a flush all in one move.
Ras2829 says: Discards are often not closely ranked. Many would think that there cannot be that much difference between 4-9 and 4-7. Well now 4-9 to opponent average is 4.571 and ranks 23/91. The 4-7 average is 4.997 47/91. RAS often thinks of discards as page 1, 2, and 3 with the 91 divided about 30 to a page. Seldom resort to a page 3 discard. If considering 4-5 discard, might be only time n/d should toss holding 8 points would be A-A-2-3 and in end-game scenario where only chance to win would be by first count. The 4-5 averages 6.438 on the other side of the board, scores 8 or more 49.173%, and nearly 10% of those are 12 or more. Frequent dealer discards of 2-3 and 6-9 make the 4-5 very vulnerable. The less frequent 6-6 makes a whopper of a crib without any help from the starter card.
Ras2829 says: How could I overlook that highly favored small card pair (3-3)? The 4-5 makes those look very strong. In any case, you get the drift! Avoid 4-5 unless holding 10-12 points in hand.
Inushtuk1
1479 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 9:55 AM
I agree. Lead the 7d.
jmudge
701 votes

Joined: July 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 11:10 AM
Nuts.
JQT says: I would like to formally request, per the comment made by jmudge on this date of April 1, 2023, that we both nominate and adopt the Pone Hand of "Keep (7 7 9 9) and Toss (5 ?)" and from now on, and refer to it (and perhaps other, similar hands) as the "Battle of Bastogne" Cribbage Hand, referring to General McAuliffe's response to the Germans, when entirely surrounded just prior to Christmas 1944, when he responded with just one word: "NUTS"! 🔩 Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Bastogne
MiketheExpert
1114 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 11:46 AM
I guess the lesson on this day, is despite the early disadvantage, don't go something desperate such as toss (4 5), because sometimes those "eyes" tend to widen when they're dealt a 24-potential hand, and people may tend to think they have to make a desperation play "already"...When you realize this, it rather comes down to a simple choice between tossing (4 7) or (4 9) unsuited, whereas toss (4 9) is quite the safer throw, and keeps the stronger pair in your hand.
MiketheExpert says: I would agree with the lead of the 7D.
MiketheExpert says: When I saw the date, I was thinking of selecting the (7 7 9 9) and trying to make a good argument for keeping this, but I thought people would see through my April Fool's day attempt too readily ** :0 **
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 3:39 PM
I think it's between 5-7-7-9C (4-9H) and 7-7-9-9 (4-5):

5-7-7-9C: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.68) = -2¾pts

7-7-9-9: 4pts - 7¼pts (SChell: 7.26) = -3¼pts

Potential:

5-7-7-9C: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 555, 6666, 77, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 6/10/12pts with AAAA, 3333, 6666, 77, 8888 = 18 cuts.

7-7-9-9: Improves with AAAA, 6666, 77, 8888, 99 = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 8/20pts with 6666, 77, 8888, 99 = 12 cuts.

Position:

We're 20pts from 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think 5-7-7-9C will peg slightly better.

Summary:

5-7-7-9C is better for starting value by ½pt and it has more cuts for improvement and 18 cuts for 6-12pts compared with 12 cuts for 8/20pts with 7-7-9-9. So I'll throw the unsuited 4-9.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:53 PM
At 24-31* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W6 %___W7 %
5-7-7-9C____5.35+1.50+(-4.41)=2.44____2.7____12.5
5-7-9-9_____4.91+1.57+(-4.32)=2.16____2.3____11.6
4-5-7-7_____5.39+1.74+(-5.91)=1.22____3.6____13.4
4-5-7-9H____3.17+1.74+(-4.53)=0.38____1.8_____9.8
7-7-9-9_____6.26+1.22+(-7.46)=0.02____3.6____12.9

Offense_______L6 %___L7 %
5-7-7-9C_______10.7___44.7
5-7-9-9________11.1___45.7
4-5-7-7________14.6___49.4
4-5-7-9H_______12.5___48.3
7-7-9-9________15.5___51.3

5-7-7-9C is best for expected averages by 0.28pt. and although it's only 3rd best for Win %s it's lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 4-9H to discard.

After the Q cut I'll lead a 7 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Pts.
7____________________1.45
5____________________1.20
9____________________0.87