Thursday 3:43 AM

This early in the game I’ll keep max points.

   

Thursday 4:12 AM

After Thirty-Nine Cuts (AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 7777, 8888, 9999, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) or 39/46 = 0.848 or nearly 85% of the time, we'll begin with Ten Points or more;

And after Twenty-Seven Cuts (AAA, 22, 333, 9999, TTTT, JJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) or 27/46 = 0.587 or nearly 59% of the time, we'll begin with a Dozen Points or more.

We shall not only Toss (5 J), but let's 'gift wrap' it for our Opponent, and add a pretty, hand-made bow. 🎁 🎀 ✨

Wordle 705 4/6 (A New Yorker should get this in One Guess!)

⬛🟨🟨⬛🟨
⬛🟨⬛🟨🟩
⬛🟩⬛🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Thursday 4:40 AM

I'll keep my sure 8 points. Got a bonus.

   

Thursday 4:50 AM

Agree with above. Opponent is already in good position so think the play here is to be aggressive at this early stage of the game and retain the powerful double run. Every “face” / “10” cut gives us 14 and we have a chance for a max of 16. Too many helpful cuts. Could be some decent pegging too with this hold.

   

Thursday 4:53 AM

I think giving away the J5 is what I would have done in real life. Thought that had to be "wrong" though, so i was afraid to say so here :)

   

Thursday 5:17 AM

I will explain this in two scenarios. First in "live" competition I would do the J-5 fairly quick as not to give my opponent any hints on any long decision. The second would have do to with internet online playing. I have noticed this certain type of set of cards have this gaming site cuts a five I would say at least 90 percent of the time when it is our discard to the opponent. Sorry but I have a pretty good history of seeing this happen. I would lead one of the twos and hope for a lot of play on. dec

   

Thursday 5:33 AM

Sacrificed only 2. Not interested in turning this game into a track meet.

   

Thursday 6:01 AM

Fortunate with the cut.

   

Thursday 6:09 AM

Nothing to defend here. I am pone with a hefty hill to climb, even though on the board the score is tied. I need to keep the double-run, and the cost to do so is the (5 J). (A 5) is barely a consideration, only because the face card is a J. For the very reason of today's cut on CHOD, don't sacrifice any points unless there is a better trade-off available. Would have led the deuce ordinarily no contest, but maybe see one, play one (after the cut). The deuce lead now might be an easy tip-off that I have another resting in my hand as well.

   

Thursday 6:14 AM

This is full of bad throws, A-2, 2-2, 2-3, anything with a 5 or a J. This leaves the question of which throw is the least bad. The 20-20 score is irrelevant to my decision.

I always knew 2-3 was a bad throw and Ras’ research indicates it’s the best throw to your own crib which means if not the worst, then one of the worst to the opponent’s crib. I didn’t watch that part of his video - yet.

What I want to do is throw the J-5 but this isn’t the hand for that. The 5 needs to stay out of the opponent’s crib. While the double run is worth 6 points (8-2 in crib) the risk is too great for me. I’d rather everyone get a few points than to risk a 12+ crib. I realize that every throw from this hand risks a 12 crib, but why make it easier on the dealer.

Keeping the 2-2-3-5 gives me an improved hand from every cut except 9. Of course the cut 2 gives me 6 and the 3 gives 4 with similar results from the 7 & 8, but none by themselves help the crib and greatly reduce the probability of a large crib. Of course I don’t like to throw J’s into the opponents crib but given the choices I think this is the least bad.

I’ll throw the J-A and keep the hand full of 5’s with a couple chances at a double run. It also gives me 8 for every X cut. This hand that you would happily deal yourself every hand turns into a hand you hope is average after your throw and cut from the other side.

-----------------

Great cut...this time

   

Thursday 6:27 AM

Very difficult for me to break up this double run as Pone, even later in the game. Not at all interested in keeping the triple nickels worth only 2 starting points. Great cut. Keep the pedal to the metal, and lead the 3 to the 2. If paired, entice the run pegging war with one of the red deuces.

   

Thursday 6:29 AM

I am going goldilocks this morning…sacrificing 2 points to avoid 5-J. My keep gets cut help from all but a 6 & 8..A,2,3,4 get me back the double run. With my current, always evolving, approach I am willing to consider sending fives across the board with A,2,8 or 9.

   

Thursday 7:25 AM

Very tempted to toss the A-5.... would probably do so in a real game. But on this forum? 5-J is probably the mathematically correct choice (and it would appear that C. Liam Brown's site proves the math). Still, hate tossing 5-J, but damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

   

Thursday 7:46 AM

I went with toss A-5 having felt that it could give me an above average hand as pone while reducing the chance of a big crib for dealer. Appreciate that I may well have fallen between two stools, though.

   

Thursday 8:15 AM

I know I was going on yesterday about how you shouldn’t be too defensive in the early game, but 20-20* is a place for defense, usually, and 2235 is a decent keep. I wouldn’t skunk my hand to toss TK here, but I would for sure toss AJ from these cards, even with the risk of some losing cuts. Then again, yesterday, at 48-48*, I was afraid to keep even as strong a hand as 5569 for fear of falling back. But we just don’t have good choices here. Toss 5J? Way too offensive, even for me, in this position. A5? Interesting goldilocks, but I still don’t like the idea of giving a five to dealer. It does leave a safer pegging hand, but that shouldn’t be overconsidered.

You could justly accuse me of inconsistency– A5 is, if anything, (checking the charts), safer than the 69 I tossed yesterday. But I don’t think that was a good call… still very much a learner, and when I approach these things as puzzles I often think my way into subpar plays. (And if I approach them as real hands, I get them wrong often enough then too, because they’re tough calls! Haha). Anyway, Emerson said that “a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds”, and it would be foolish to be consistent with that line of thought.

I’d say most everyone is being a bit inconsistent today, frankly, being willing to toss 5J at 20-20* but afraid to toss 56 or 69 at 48-48*.

I understand doubting the value of playing positional cribbage before the end of the game – there is so much room for extreme hands on either side to change the trajectory, and I do think a lot of positional ideas are rubbish for this reason (and others). But the fact of the matter is, even dealer’s modest positional advantage at 0*-0 is worth a 12% swing in win rate. I think if you “lean in” to the scoring trends of the game, it’s worth a lot. In fact, I’d say two weeks of studying Schell did more for my win% than years of subsequent work on pegging and discarding.

Interestingly, with delta, 2J would have been a better balk here than AJ (by 0.2), and leave a better hand by 0.1 too. A2, with delta, is better by 0.1 as a balk, and leaves a much better hand by 0.7 over my keep! So if I’d have realized that, I think A2 is the truly best play today – and none of the commenters went this way! I just didn’t take delta into account adequately. I’d say a lot of people aren’t taking position into account adequately today, either. I don’t understand the phrase, “nothing to defend”. With dealer at 20*, there is a lot to defend – with cautious play and halfway decent cards, he could easily be knocked off course. The analogous fourth street score is 99-99*. Would you really play offense there, or what? That doesn’t make sense to me.

The record of hands I was taking is done – over 1k hands for dealer and pone each. Organizing them will take a long time… first I have to sort them into categories like 5XXX, LLLM, MMXX, 5MMX, etc, then then each category will have to be further organized. But I’ll finish eventually and certainly share the results.

   

Thursday 8:24 AM

Too many good things happen with this keep versus trying to balk the dealer's crib. Now that we avoided a 5 cut let's move on down the board with a bit of a smile and maybe a small flourish while pegging.

   

Thursday 9:59 AM

Choice of strategy should indicate the discard. It's offense to include the pegging. N/D is not likely to reach 2nd street CPZ (43-47) for upcoming deal. Even so, having 16 points after seeing starter card, n/d should play to get close, lead the trey, and take any pegs offered. Wouldn't consider discarding A-5 to hold six points. A five with anything to opponent crib averages near 6 points. In this case 5.811.

   

Thursday 12:48 PM

I think it's between the aggressive A-2-2-3 (5-J), the defensive 2-3-5-J (A-2) and perhaps the compromise 2-2-3-J (A-5):

A-2-2-3: 8pts - 8pts (Schell: 7.76) = 0pt

2-3-5-J: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.01) = -2¼pts

2-2-3-J: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.07) = +1pt

Potential:

A-2-2-3: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 12/14/15/16pts with AAA, 22, 333, 9999 + 15xXs = 27 cuts.

2-3-5-J: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 82.6% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555 + 15xXs = 30 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

2-2-3-J: Improves with AAA, 22, 333, 4444, 555, 8888 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 333, 4444 + 15xXs = 27 cuts. Plus 11 diamond cuts for 1pt for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

In two deals time using the 26pts per two deals we'll be at 46-46* where, I think it's more obvious that opponent is much better positionally. Ideally we need to slow Dealer down and score a good hand.

Pegging:

I think all the hands will peg well but perhaps playing more defensively 2-3-5-J and 2-2-3-J will peg better.

Summary:

2-2-3-J has the best starting value at +1pt and it also has 27 cuts for 10-14pts, the additional approx. ¼pt nob potential and should peg well. So I'll throw the A-5.

   

Thursday 12:57 PM

At 20-20* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W7 %____W8 %
A-2-2-3____12.17+(-2.46)+(-7.99)=1.72____20.9____25.9
2-2-3-J_____9.67+(-2.48)+(-6.20)=0.99____15.6____25.5
2-3-5-J_____7.39+(-2.74)+(-4.29)=0.36____11.9____24.2

Defense______L7 %____L8 %
A-2-2-3_______30.9____48.9
2-2-3-J_______24.7____46.0
2-3-5-J_______21.8____44.1

A-2-2-3 is best for expected averages by 0.73pt. over 2-2-3-J and 1.36pts over 2-3-5-J. It is also significantly best for Win %s and despite it being very much higher for Loss %s because of the risky 5-J I'll still select it to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead a 2 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points
2________________________1.83
3________________________1.63
A________________________1.38

   

Thursday 2:17 PM

Wow! My first suggested hand makes its debut. In real life, the cut was a 5. So painful to let go of points, but I too kept the run and tossed J-5

   

Thursday 2:40 PM

In my response to Horus93’s post, I mentioned your numbers not being very useful at the table unless you have a method to quickly compute them in your head or have them all memorized, which would surprise me. In a forum such as this; however, they are a useful gauge against which people can compare their choices, so please don’t think they are of no interest to me. I can use them to hone the decisions I might make at the table. You did not consider the J-A throw in your number today and I would be interested in seeing how they compare to the others.