May 26, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by luke3141
106-109*  ?
68%
10%
6%
5%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 244
dec
6012 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:04 AM
I went for game cuts. I would like to trap some pegging points and get closer and survive their counts now. dec
Gougie00
5388 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:31 AM
sorta gotta in this situation. Looking for a 3,4 or 6 starter for the win. A swing and a miss. Too late to play defense, and I don't see any path for victory except leading the 4 and hoping the dealer blunders by getting into a pegging battle.
james500
3593 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:32 AM
Need a favourable cut.
JQT
3830 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Friday 3:39 AM
We need Fifteen Points in order to WIN, which is Five Points above Pone average. Meanwhile, the Dealer needs just a Dozen Points to defeat us, which is Four Points BELOW the Dealer Average.

After Keep (4 4 5 T) and Toss (7 8), there are Four Cuts (6666) that will yield a Dozen Points or more, and all Four of these (6666) will actually yield Fourteen Points;

After Keep (4 4 7 8) and Toss (5 T), there are Five Cuts (44, 777) that will yield a Dozen Points or more, and Two of these (44) will yield Fourteen Points;

After Keep (4 4 5 7) and Toss (8 T), there are Six Cuts (44, 6666) that will yield a Dozen Points or more, and Four of these (6666) will yield Fourteen Points. 🎯

Keep (4 4 5 8) logically cannot be any better than Keep (4 4 5 7), and so: we're done.

It PAYS to do the work! Let's Toss (8 T) and dig deep for that 6 Card Cut! Still, it's likely that we have only about a 12% to 15% chance of winning, but this beats all of our other choices by far.

After the awful King Cut, we have only Six Points in our Hand. Let's lead the 7 Card and try to peg as much of those Nine Points we need in order to WIN, simply in an attempt to reduce those Spread Points by which we LOSE.
JQT says: In a quick search of thousands and thousands of my saved Endgame Battles, I have two recorded instances of pegging Sixteen Holes after leading a 7 Card and both Pone and Dealer held a PAIR of 4 Cards, which were all then played back-to-back. One of these was Craig Hessel's Crib '97, and the other was Rex Cribbage with Keep (A 4 4 Q) and Toss (2 7), the successor to Halscrib, released in 2010.
mike320 says: I'll take the 2 points for the muggins. 44567 is worth 16. I suspect you missed the 4 card run rather than 3. I missed it in my evaluation and didn't consider this keep. No regrets because I also had a 13% chance at a cut.
JQT says: I employ a similar technique as that which is used and demonstrated by wisdom of the great Navajo rug makers, who traditionally will always introduce at least one deliberate "wrong" stitch or an imperfection of sorts into every rug or garment, in order to not offend the Gods by assuming perfection, and I celebrate when these are discovered. Seriously, good find, and as I am happy to remind all who will listen: I am 100% correct, about 2% of the time!
horus93
977 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 4:51 AM
This score requires maximum offense, I think most everyone will agree, because we must either count out now, or get as near the game hole as possible to peg out as dealer next hand. Even if this comes at a great risk, in that we might fall short, and then opponent counts out on this deal, we don’t have any choice but to gamble, because even if we do hold opponent short, we’re almost sure to lose unless we get to at least, say, 117* ourselves.

Given the difficulty of pegging even 1 or 2 points as pone when opponent is on max defense, I wanted at least 10 points and preferably more like 12. These sorts of discards are, at least for me, very tricky in a real game, because I’m used to discarding for a high overall score, not for performance at the right side of the histogram, and the pressure tends to muddle my brains.

Looking at things cut-by-cut, this looks like the way to go. I want to say I’d pick this in a real game, but who knows. Keep 4478 has a couple more cuts for 10+, but 8T is obv a safer crib toss, and even though our own scoring is the most important, when it comes down to a couple of cuts, 5T vs 8T makes 8T look best, and this keep is better for scoring 12+ anyway.

The game seems unwinnable after that cut. Cashing in the fours wouldn't score enough. Lead the four to keep the 457 together and who knows? It's hard to imagine a scenario where we win, though.

Another really nice puzzle from luke3141. Would love to see more comments from someone who finds such clever discard problems!

The biggest thing I hopefully learned from yesterday’s puzzle is not to underestimate offensive capability. In my mind, I thought that a keep like A223, even if it got us near the next par, would tend to create a tricky, all-out offense game, by pushing opponent too far up for there to be such good hopes in the back, where playing cautiously would create conditions for a defensive trajectory which is easier to win. But between the bot, and so many stronger players going the other way, this was for sure a pseudopositional call on my part, the sort of thing that has hurt my playing for as long as I’ve been posting here (though maybe I’m not as bad in this respect as I was in 2017).
Hawthorn says: Yes, a couple of great puzzles from luke3141. What I found fascinating about yesterday's puzzle is that toss A-5 was actually a very close second to 5-J, despite the fact that 5-J's expected average was so much greater. I've crunched some numbers based on the Halscrib figures (I *think* correctly), and for games finishing within eight deals, 5-J wins 37.9% of games and A-5 wins 37.1% of games. What I guess this shows is that the position was still an important consideration yesterday, but just not quite important enough to trump the potential of the double run!
horus93 says: Maybe a better option would be lead the seven in a desperate attempt to trap a lone 4 in the second series. Seems like a low percent play, but this is a low percent situation. Maybe, just maybe, dealers cards were such that he was forced to hold a hand that matches ours. But pretty unlikely since a good opponent will try to hold a safe pegging hand here if at all possible. The two on one gambit did win me a game from a similarly desperate spot last week, but that doesn’t mean it’s actually a good plan
wasa
2707 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 5:59 AM
JQT says it for me. Fingers crossed for a 6 cut
Eolus619
1012 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Friday 6:01 AM
First it is nice to see new names submitting puzzles.I encourage all voters to do so. Next..who knew Gougie00 was a wordsmith?.. “sorta gotta” has the potential to become a cribbage theorem . It works for me today.
Eolus619 says: Weekend homework if so inclined...I offer two choices. The first homework option will probably be of more interest to less experienced players. The assignment will involve adding/counting and it specifically will focus on finding 15s among 2,3,or 4 suited cards that sum to 15...thus the games name 15 in a suit The easiest exercise is in this link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OivGl4vv4-M The link is actually a 2 minute video of how to play. It involves only having a deck that has Ace thru 9 in it..you will get the "play" after the video. The goal is to not have any cards left in the four rows, four cards each row, you laid down since you were able to sum the suited cards to 15 in some way or fashion. It is a challenge to get all the cards of the table. A harder version is take a 52 card deck and take out the four tens..then play the "15" in a suit game as seen in the video Even more challenging is play with all 52 cards..but being able to take runs of J,Q & K ..suited or unsuited... off the table Go to page eight of this link below for the written instructions for these 15 in a suit solitaire versions http://www.ronitbird.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Various-Card-games-to-practice-addsubtract-12-games-updated-copy.pdf
Eolus619 says: If you are a solid counter, and not a solitaire player, then the other homework choice is a pegging puzzle. http://www.cribbageforum.com/Ask2002_07.htm
MiketheExpert
790 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:15 AM
Odds are very small to win this, but I might as well keep the hand that gives me a chance to win this on a few cuts. I can score a max of 14 by keeping (4 4 5 7) and needing 1 pegging pt to win. The odds of holding dealer to under 12 points I believe are about 1/8, but I stand corrected if this is wrong. This is all or nothing. If we don't have a chance to win after the cut (such as today), we should likely try to minimize spread points, as we would end up only at hole 112 without any pegs, which is still a far cry from peg-out range assuming dealer fails to count out this hand.
MiketheExpert says: And actually, the 6 cut here is worth 16 (did you miss the 4-4-7 fifteen like I did?)...So this is a game-winner.
MiketheExpert says: When you add a 6 in-between, all of a sudden this 15 seems to disappear!
Jazzselke
2375 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Friday 6:22 AM
Do or die, will be lucky to survive this deal if we don't hit. Only other hand that might make sense is 4478. Might lead the 7 and opponent could respond with a 4.
mike320
19 votes

Joined: April 2023

 
 
 
Friday 6:53 AM
’m used to looking at where the pegs are on the board and the numbers don’t give me such a clear picture. I started going down the wrong path in deciding what to throw.

True to the game, these are the difficult hands you must deal with in cribbage. The situation is you need 15 while the dealer only needs to prevent you from getting 15 so he can count his hand and crib for 12, which is below average. You are in a position where you need to win on this hand. If the dealer counts the crib, you will in all likelihood lose.

I started to say you have a choice of loading up the crib or destroying your hand. The reality is that you need to win before the dealer counts so it’s time for taking a chance that can get you to the finish line or within reasonable pegging distance.

Unless the dealer is incompetent, you won’t peg 6 points for 3 fours so pegging is no incentive to keep the 4’s, but there may be other reasons. The throw that gives you the best chance of winning this game is the 7-8. The 6 cut will max your hand at 14 so you’ll need to peg 1 to win. You have lots of room to give up pegging to make this 1 peg so that’s good. The bad thing is there are only 4 cards that give you a good chance to win.

Throwing the 10-5 also gives you a chance at 14, but you hold 2 of the 4’s that will get you there. The 7 will get you to 12, which gives you a chance to peg enough (3) so this is a possibility as well. Other cuts leave you 4 or more away and I wouldn’t count on pegging 4 but I would welcome a pegging war in this hand. I don’t see a better option, so I’ll throw the 10-5 and pray for the 13% chance at a cut to come through.
mike320 says: I want to change my vote to throwing the 8-10 because I missed the 16 point 44567 double run potential though the same 6 cut gets me within striking distance. Of course after the CHOD cut this is irrelevant.
hecklebush
56 votes

Joined: February 2022

 
 
 
Friday 7:50 AM
Great puzzle - this sort of situation happens all the time in real play. I went with the majority opinion, hoping for that 14 point hand!
Ras2829 says: Hi hecklebush: If you're looking for the six spot as a starter card, that would tally 16 points.
winesteward48
539 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 8:37 AM
I am not willing to help the dealer go out without a much better chance of my own.
Inushtuk1
1138 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Friday 1:21 PM
It's all been said before. Lead the 7.
mike320 says: Unfortunately you can only keep 4 cards.
Inushtuk1 says: I can only reply, Oops! so I'll toss the (8-10) in that case.
Coeurdelion
5290 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 2:26 PM
I think it may be between 4-4-5-7 (8-10) and the defensive 4-4-5-8 (7-10). I don't see that 4-4-5-10 can be better than 4-4-5-7:

4-4-5-7: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 5.10) = -¾pt

4-4-5-8: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -2¼pts

Potential:

4-4-5-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/16pts with 3333, 44, 6666, 777 = 13 cuts.

4-4-5-8: Improves with 2222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 777, 888 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 6/12pts with 3333, 44, 6666, 777 = 13 cuts.

Position:

We need 15pts to go out while Dealer only needs 12pts so I think we must play all out Offense.

Pegging:

I think 4-4-5-7 may peg slightly better playing Offense.

Summary:

4-4-5-7 is better for starting value by 1½pts and it has 4 cuts to get us straight out (6666) and 6 cuts for 12pts (3333, 44) needing to peg 3pts. 4-4-5-8 has 6 cuts for 12pts (3333, 6666) needing to peg the 3pts but the 7-10 throw gives us a better chance of making it go to another deal. Even so I'll play the all out Offense and throw the 8-10.
HalscribCLX
5003 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 2:31 PM
At 106-109* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense____________Win %________Loss %
4-4-5-7_____________15.8_________73.5
4-4-5-10____________10.5_________83.2
4-4-5-8______________9.1_________66.8

4-4-5-7 is considerably best for Win %s and although it is higher for Loss %s than 4-4-5-8 as I'm recommending an Offense strategy I'll select 8-10 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 4 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points
4_______________________1.90
7_______________________1.46
5_______________________0.99
Ras2829 says: With dealer needing 12 points to win, first count next deal, n/d needing 15 points to win, dealer is not going to be willing to peg. Why? What are chances that n/d will score 15 points to win this game? N/D will score no more than 14 points five in six times. In that sense, leading the four spot seems the right choice. Other places on the board, I like the 7 lead as folks love to make the count 11 to which n/d score 15-4. HalscribCLX says it all for me this day.