May 27, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0-0*  ?
34%
30%
17%
5%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 223
Andy (muesli64)
2223 votes

Joined: August 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 3:10 AM
Not much wrong with the 6-A throw? And more points in hand.
mike320 says: I didn't notice this keeps 4 points in your hand. Max is still 8 points but there are more ways to get there than with my Q-2 throw.
Granny says: I went with the Q-2 throw as well. I usually will keep the points, but this early in the game, I wanted to increase chances of a run. Plus, I like keeping an Ace in hand.
dec
6358 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:25 AM
Horses are at the gate 3-2-1 and we're off! My bet is on the two lead. dec
Gougie00
5730 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:41 AM
I went wide looking for some help. I didn't get any but guessing the QA won't toast me in the crib.
Inushtuk1
1487 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 3:41 AM
Top ten discard and this hand improves on all cuts to at least 4 I believe. 8 lead?
Eolus619 says: Hmmmm Mike …you may very well have the true path today..a single ace next to a deuce may prove to not be a pegging liability
Inushtuk1 says: There's also a 3 card 11 here, and a 4 card 16 for what it's worth. But I think the deuce on an X-card response is better than the 5. But see james500 below me for another way.
james500
3923 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 4:08 AM
I'm with Mike, but I'd lead the 2 hoping for either of:

2(2)-X(12)-A(13)-X(23)-8(31/2) or,
2(2)-5(7)-8(15/2)...

In the first scenario, you could play the 8 at the count of 12, but making the count 13 with the Ace could be safer? They didn't pair my 2 lead, so perhaps they can't make 15/2 here? Also, pairing my Ace here for 14/2 allows the possibility of 15/8 which might scare them away.

To be fair, both of those pegging scenarios do also work with Mike's 8 lead too.
JQT says: Yes, I think leading the 8 Card is strategic today, as it follows that old Pegging Principle of "Keeping Our Powder Dry."
JQT says: It takes a bit of temerity to stick with an idea sometimes: If we dare to peg bravely and lead the 8 Card from (A 2 5 8), even against (3 5 7 ?) we can possibly break even, which is a big feat while pegging as Pone, to wit: 8 (8) 7 (15=2) 5 (20) 5 (25=2) 2 (27) 3 (30) A (31-5), ? (?=1) the mystery card could of course be 3, 5, 7, 8, X, etc.
Eolus619
1342 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 5:48 AM
I am going to begin with a sure four points. I am prepared to have Ras tell me his axiom below is correct 95% of the time but not today

“Play the game without a favorable starter card. You're likely to miss more cuts than you receive and don't believe you can improve your cutting ability. Most strong tournament players plan their hand, strategy, etc. without the benefit of the starter card. If the starter card is favorable, that is an unplanned bonus.”
mike320 says: The advantage of the Q-6 throw is that you don't have 4 worthless cuts (A, 4, 6 & 9) as in this hand. You now must cut one of the 4 cards already in your hand to get 8. Throwing the Q-6 I have 0 worthless cuts. The cut will help me so there is no question. It’s likely to be 2 points but it may be 6. I actually consider the cut potential a push in our throw decisions. You already have 4, I WILL have 4. I prefer keeping the A rather than the 2 for pegging though.
Jazzselke
2586 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 5:56 AM
Only way to hold 4 points, but Inushtuk may be correct.
Jazzselke says: I do like the defensive aspect of 6Q. But another advantage of 258Q: the 5-cut insurance provided, as a 5 cut would yield 10 ponts.
MiketheExpert
1122 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 5:57 AM
I don't like the static 4-pt keep with toss (A 6). It's a poor pegging arrangement, although it has several cuts for improvement to 8. In this circumstance, would rather try and bring my opponent down into the muck with a toss such as (6 Q), but rather not start with 0 points (such as in toss (8 Q). I think today, I will try the guaranteed improvement on any cut of (A 5 6 8), leaving several cuts for a substantial improvement, and a "medium" toss of (2 Q). With the K cut, having only 4 pts, I think either lead of A or 8 could work out. I'll lead high with the 8 from my 4-card "sweet 16" and try and grab some pegging points where available. Hole 8-10 may still be a reasonable goal without giving away too much, and hoping for no more than an average hand and below average crib from dealer.
MiketheExpert says: Sorry, ignore my "sweet 16" comment - This would be after keep of (A 2 5 8). I was considering this for quite awhile, and assumed I still had it!
MiketheExpert says: Note the (A 2 5 8) also has guaranteed improvement on any cut, not quite as high an expected average as (A 5 6 8), but would be considered as a better pegger with a safer crib throw. Crunching the numbers, I think HAL will choose the (6 Q) as the "best path" today.
MiketheExpert says: Statistically, the A-2 will provide the most positive pegging points from an offensive standpoint, although in my experience it often doesn't work out as intended, and it is more of an idealistic goal, rather than a concrete rule. I've often said that if push comes to shove, I won't rely on the pegging values so much as the others in making my decision, due to the high variance and number of possibilities which occur during the course of any pegging sequence.
mike320
19 votes

Joined: April 2023
 
 
 
Saturday 6:08 AM
The choice today is another common cribbage problem courtesy of Ras. The problem is that you don’t want to throw anything from your hand so you have to decide which points to keep. The worst part of the problem, you get to keep exactly 2 point unless you decide to throw the 5-6, which would be insane.

My first choice is to throw the 2-Q since it leaves me a core of cards with potential to grow with every card in the deck. It also gives me a chance at my 2nd best hand of 8. The best possible hand is to throw the 5-Q and cut a 7 for 9. You really only get 7 out of it since you gave the dealer 2 and that is not an option in this deal.

I realize the 2 & Q are suited but a crib flush is so rare it doesn’t bother me. There might be a small difference in pegging from one throw to the next, but looking at the hand it would not be significant so that doesn’t affect my throw. The main thing is I don’t want to throw the crib something dangerous since I won’t get more than 8 points no matter my throw. Therefore, all sets of touching cards are eliminated: A-2 & 5-6. Things likely to help the crib are eliminated: 6-8 & 5-Q. The 5 won’t go into the crib at all since it’s guaranteed 2+ points. I never realized before Ras’ video that 5 ALWAYS gives points to the crib, but I did realize it usually placed the crib in a position for more than a few points.

In a real game, I would consider this a moment and throw the 2-Q, there would be little agony on my part since I know this is one of those bad hands that I don’t want to help the crib if I can avoid it. I suspect I’d lead the A and see how dealer responds for my second card. I don’t like the possibilities of where an 8 lead could go.
mike320 says: It seems I missed one possibility worth considering and that's the Q-6 throw. It's the only other hand that gives you 4 points but gives 2 of the more common cards dealer will throw in the crib. I think I'll stick with my Q-2 and see how the rest of the game goes.
Eolus619 says: Hi mike320...2-5-8-Q = 8
mike320 says: 2-5-8-Q = 4. There are no runs or pairs and the only 15's are Q-5 and 8-5-2. I don't much care to throw the A-6 into the crib given the choices.
Eolus619 says: yes meant 4 sorry ..mis typed meant to point out there is another way to hold four without a 5-6 discard..all the best
mike320 says: I also mistyped when I said the Q-6 leaves your 4, it's only the A-6. Q-6 leaves you 2 but also every cut will help it. I do kind of like the A-2 in hand for pegging so this is a very tempting alternative.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:40 AM
If we were many other places on the board, I think the obvious Keep (2 5 8 Q) and Toss (A 6) does make sense, but I believe we'll do better as First Non Dealer, especially when it comes to the pegging, if we choose the safer discard alternative of Keep (A 2 5 8) and Toss (6 Q). After the King Cut, we now have Four Points; let's lead the 8 Card, as this lead best honors our previous idea to Keep (A 2 5 8) in the first place. We should plan to grab some points during the latter half of the pegging with our powerful Ace-Deuce Duo.
JQT says: Twenty-Nine Cuts (AAA, 4444, 666, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK) or 63% of the remaining deck yield Four Points, and Four Cuts (3333) or nearly 9% of the remaining deck yield Five Points, and Thirteen Cuts (222, 555, 7777, 888) or more than 28% of the remaining deck yield Six Points, thus all of the Forty Six Cards in the remaining deck shall add points. This is a fairly favorable outcome from such an originally somewhat weak card arrangement, especially as it sends the weakest Discard Choice of Toss (6 Q) over the board today, and leaves us with an interesting Pegging Hand.
Inushtuk1 says: So why would 2-5-8-Q be best many other places on the board John?
JQT says: Starting with more is usually better, but I think being the First Non Dealer helps us to find this alternative solution with the safer discard. Since we know we begin the game as Non Dealer with a Positional Disadvantage, it emphasizes our ability to both peg better and have a safer discard, which are both available to us today. It's possible I might come to the same conclusion and thus Discard Choice at almost ANY Relative Score, who knows?! Toss (A 6) is one of those quixotic Low-Card Middle-Card Pone Discards that can often get us into trouble, catching Dealer's Toss (7 8) particularly hard, and not a good way to begin a game. Perhaps it's not the way to proceed at any time during a game, but I think if I judged the position to be about equal, I may choose Toss (A 6). 🤔
JQT says: I found my own mistake today before any of the "masses," which is probably a first: An Ace Cut of course adds Four Points to (A 2 5 8) and makes the total Six Points, so my first sentence of my first reply should say: Twenty-Six Cuts (4444, 666, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKKK) or more than 56% of the remaining deck yield Four Points, and Four Cuts (3333) or nearly 9% of the remaining deck yield Five Points, and Sixteen Cuts (AAA, 222, 555, 7777, 888) or nearly 35% of the remaining deck yield Six Points, thus all of the Forty Six Cards in the remaining deck shall add points.
winesteward48
835 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 7:10 AM
With every cut I will get the 2 points I gave up with this keep. I missed the A-2-5-8 as another possibility and now kinda like that one better because of the pegging opportunities.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Saturday 7:18 AM
Cribbage is a game of probabilities, and I’d say the odds of my getting a Ras puzzle right are about 1 in 3. Still, let’s give it a whirl.

I’m an advocate for defense at 0-0* if the cards are bad enough, even though the dynamics generally favor offense (and both Ras and, IIRC, Colvert found empirical evidence for the value of offense as starting pone). Imagine if the score were the analogous 105-106* - clearly, this is generally an offensive score, but if your cards were crap, you might throw TK, hoping to skunk the crib, and that opponent would have mediocre or bad cards. Then the score next hand might be something like 110*-112, and with just a little more luck, you can win by defense.

This is not a great plan, and it doesn’t usually work, and it’s not how I generally play at a score like 105-106*. But 0-0* is a different story, because there is so much time to chip away at the opponent’s surplus. Even though we famously have a deficit to win in n counts, we have a huge surplus to win in n+1, just as one would at 105-106*. Schell, in particular, was an advocate for strong balking plays at this score if the cards weren’t too strong.

But is that the way to go today? Are these cards that bad, and do first street scoring trends really favor such a move? I could toss 6Q, a heavy balk, and hold A258, which improves on every cut. But this seems, to me, overly clever and pseudopositional (although I could easily see being proven wrong by the end of the day). A6 is also a balk, albeit not as good a balk as 6Q, and it leaves more room for a win in the front. Even if I get nowhere near 16* on this hand, I still have some prospects in that area dealing from 8* or 10*, since there’s a lot of time to get better cards in the future. Tossing the 6Q seems to shut the door on this possibility too much, since it scores only 4 more than half the time. So after much thought, I’m going to play this the way I would have played it in a real game with very little thought. I looked at other discards, but they had poorer prospects for improvement than A258 and were inferior balks to 6Q.

Looking at the numbers on Liam, I don’t think pegging will make up the difference here, neither offensive nor defensive. The cut leaves me with only six, but it doesn’t help the crib and is a generally “bad card” for that, so I would play with some caution, hoping for bad luck on dealer’s side in the hand (if not now, in deals to come!), and lead the deuce. A readjustment in strategy may well be warranted at the next hand, but for this one, I'll play it fairly safe.
horus93 says: Calling a6 a balk may seem a bit of a stretch, it depends on how you define a balk, but it’s only about 0.5 worse than 6q, anyway
horus93 says: And calling the other balks worse for improvement - the means have aq and 2q slightly better for means, but I’d still fear the cuts for 2
horus93 says: And I mean better than 6q - they’re significantly worse than a6, by 0.7 or more
JQT says: Your positional awareness is always very good. The modulo 26 inherent in the Cribbage Twenty-Six Theory causes a "wrap-around" effect, such that at many a crucial juncture, Offense and Defense become almost interchangeable, and it is at these relative scores when we should probably let the cards decide. It is true that Toss (A 6) is only about half a point "looser" than Toss (6 Q), but that is quite a bit in an arrangement as we were dealt today. When we add the likely additional pegging value of Keep (A 2 5 8) to the added safety over the board and in the Enemy Crib that comes after Toss (6 Q), we can probably 'squeeze' another Full Point or more out of the safer discard.
horus93 says: You may be right man, but the numbers are pretty stark imo. Toss a6 leaves a hand that avgs 6, and toss 6q leaves a hand that avgs 4.8. I just don’t see it outpegging my keep by 1.2 - that’d be a huge margin in pegging, which as Mike points is so variable that swings that big are rare. And on the balk side, it’s 4.7 for my a6, vs 4.1 for the 6q. So keeping a much better hand for a mildly more dangerous crib toss, just seems like a good deal to me. But I see the merits of your case (and others’) and may well be wrong after all
horus93 says: The way I could see the bot going your way, or one of the other balks, is that with pegging included, the gap narrows enough that one of the balkier picks comes out ahead in pure hand minus crib. But I’d still rather keep the overall higher scoring hand here and with these cards, because the crib is such a crapshoot, and I think generally starting pone’s scoring is worth more than a moderately better balk
horus93 says: I mean, even if a balkier discard is better for expected averages, I think it’d be by a narrow margin. Would rather keep the overall higher scoring hand at 0-0* where the margins are close like that, even if it is “worse” for my scoring minus crib by 0.2 or something
Coeurdelion
5595 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 12:04 PM
We can hold 4pts with 2-5-8-Q (A-6) or play more defensively with A-2-5-8 (6-Q) and perhaps 2-5-6-8 (A-Q) is worth looking at as well:

2-5-8-Q: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.91) = -¾pt

A-2-5-8: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.22) = -2¼pts

2-5-6-8: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.33) = -2½pts

Potential:

2-5-8-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 7777, 888 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/10pts with 222, 555, 888, QQQ = 12 cuts.

A-2-5-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 555, 7777, 888 = 20 cuts.

2-5-6-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/10pts with 222, 4444, 555, 7777, 888 = 17 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense and try to get as near to it as possible.

Pegging:

I think A-2-5-8 should peg best as it has two low cards, a five and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven. 2-5-6-8 should also peg quite well.

Summary:

2-5-8-Q is best for starting value but both A-2-5-8 and 2-5-6-8 have more cuts for improvement. A-2-5-8 has guaranteed improvement and 20 cuts for 5/6pts while 2-5-6-8 has slightly fewer cuts for improvement but 17 cuts for 7-10pts. This is a tremendous improvement on 2pts and while 2-5-8-Q has 3 cuts for 10pts (555) 2-5-6-8 has four (7777). So although A-2-5-8 has guaranteed improvement and should peg a little better I think the better potential of 2-5-6-8 leads me to discard the A-Q.
HalscribCLX
5318 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 12:29 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-2-5-8____4.78+2.20+(-4.05)=2.93____20.6____20.7
2-5-8-Q____6.04+1.28+(-4.51)=2.81____21.3____21.0
2-5-6-8____5.13+1.70+(-4.27)=2.56____20.7____19.1

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
A-2-5-8_______37.1____52.9
2-5-8-Q_______37.4____52.7
2-5-6-8_______39.6____55.0

A-2-5-8 is best for expected averages by 0.12pt. and although 2-5-8-Q is very slightly best for Win %s A-2-5-8 is even more slightly lower for Loss %s. So I'll select 6-Q to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Points
5______________________2.01
8______________________2.00
A______________________1.78
2______________________1.66
horus93 says: Just like I thought - better by 0.1 in expected averages, your scoring minus crib, but my keep is on top for hand plus pegs by about .3. I’m not convinced by the bot today. .3 better scoring is worth .4 in crib score at 0-0*, imo
horus93 says: And there are a few reasons for thinking that way, besides the positional stuff, the crib is only a fraction of dealer scoring, so I don’t think a one to one exchange is the way to think about it.
mike320 says: Interesting...2 days in a row Halscrib ignored my throw.
horus93 says: And, anyway, would anyone lead the five from that hand for an extra hundredth of a point in mean pegging? This puzzle says more about the limits of halscrib, for me, than it does about cribbage.
JQT says: The program looks at ALL possible choices, but the human relaying the data isn't being paid enough (or at all) to enter in all fifteen choices each and every day. When your choice is not listed, it performed worse than any that were listed, otherwise it would have been listed. Coeurdelion has been kind enough to translate and enter the results nearly every day for YEARS now; we should create one of those "Buy me a coffee" buttons for him! Why not: I send half a dozen "cups" to Liam every now and then. In fact, one of my favorite Ukrainian Contacts, an Evacuation Medic by name of Brandon Mitchell (https://www.youtube.com/@ukraine_tbic), also has "Buy Me a Coffee" in addition to PayPal. Ref: https://youtu.be/GqJ7NAesb1Y
MiketheExpert says: As expected, the average using an offense strategy is what I expected HAL to choose (A-2-5-8), which is a solid option, with the difference in total averages between the top 3 choices in "our pegs" as an offense strategy. (2-5-8-Q) above wins by quite a bit if you exclude the pegging total. 2-5-6-8 and A-5-6-8 should both peg better than (2-5-8-Q), however (2-Q) is also a slightly more dangerous throw than (A-Q), but I still prefer having the A in my hand than the deuce, so these 2 choices should end up rather close. Agree with RAS that I would not lead the 5 if choosing to hold (A-2-5-8), and either the deuce or 8 for me is a superior lead choice, but I would go with the 8.
JQT says: As humans, we'll likely never work things out down to the 0.1 level, but we can learn from the program nevertheless. The fact that it chooses the 5 Card Lead confirms for me the idea that we should NOT lead from the Ace-Deuce Duo! But if you look at my pegging example reply that I posted beneath james500's post, you can see where the 5 Card Lead theme might actually be as good or better than the 8 Card Lead. Again, the important pegging detail is to lead from the HIGH(er) side of our Hand today!
Ras2829
5154 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 12:46 PM
If choosing offense to include the pegging in hands of 0-4 points increased peg points and decreased crib scores will generally hold sway. These kinds of opportunities are often available. Know it's not likely that anyone will memorize the averages for 91 discards. Few who play can recite the ten lowest scoring discards to opponent or the ten highest scoring to own. Given that, why not learn the ranking of the top ten? In this case in holding A-2-5-8, n/d has 3-card 11 and a "sweet 16". Don't like the 5 lead from this group; dealer generally just plays a X-pointer for 15-2. Will lead the 8 and keep the three cards of high pegging value in reserve (A-2-5) and will take any pegs offered along the way. That 6-Q averages 4.142 (1,320) 5/91, and scores 0-2 40% of the time. There are only five other discards that do as well.
JQT says: Superb Puzzle, RAS! I can still remember wading through the research on Cribbage Forum by Michael Schell and looking at the data compiled by you (RAS) under the heading "Optimal discards to opponent's crib (Rasmussen)" way back in circa 2005, and both (6 K) and (6 Q) show up in ALL three columns. Other great players have notably expounded upon the defensiveness of Toss (6 K), and Toss (6 Q) follows along similarly and quite closely. Ref: http://www.cribbageforum.com/OppCrib.htm
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Thanks much for the kind words. That means so much to me at age 86. Every day is a blessing and a few bouquets along the way just might allow me to see another day and enjoy the lingering fragrance. Have had pneumonia the last three years starting the same week in May. On antibiotics right now. Unlike 2022 when my lungs filled with water, and congestive heart failure put me in intensive care for four days. So far no liquid in lungs. Just short of breath and low in energy. Worked 2 1/2 hours in vegetable garden today - so things seem to be headed in the right direction.
wasa
3018 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Saturday 1:30 PM
Since I can't peg that well, I still say that keeping the sure 4 is better than the sure 2 and trying to peg more points.