Saturday 3:25 AM

I see T-K, but I'd like to try 8-K this morning. I'll lead the 3.

   

Saturday 4:20 AM

The cards tell me to make a defensive discard

   

Saturday 4:22 AM

I see only one correct answer by a significant margin. After the ignominious J cut, let's continue our offensive plan by leading the 2.

   

Saturday 4:36 AM

The offensive prospects of the aggressive (78) toss are simply not enough to outweigh the defensive value of the big balk - although, really, when I toss TK it seems there is a 70% chance of a nickle turning up on the deck or in the crib. The idea that starting pone should always play all-out offense is nothing short of a myth, and as great a player as Schell agrees with me there.

With only four points in hand, and despite dealer's two point boost from nob, I would play defense in the pegging. Even if dealer has a decent hand, a 0-2 point crib thanks to the TK could easily leave him pone next hand at 12 or less, and his surplus will have been cut in half. I think the deuce lead is the most defensive, but I still like going for the magic 5 for an easy and safe two points by leading the three especially this early in the game.

   

Saturday 4:37 AM

Even Dan Campbell would punt in this situation

   

Saturday 5:05 AM

Discard for the defense! dec

   

Saturday 5:28 AM

Not enough offense in the hand to be giving points away. Every cut helps.

   

Saturday 5:35 AM

When in doubt toss the opponent K-10. Lead the 3 and a peg a little.

   

Saturday 5:44 AM

Colvert’s advice about GFn/d playing all out offense starting from the first hand is the answer…until it isn’t…reference Jazz’s increasingly famous cribbage theorem

   

Saturday 7:02 AM

What a horrible hand to start with! TK to the crib, but my regular cribbage partner has a habit of tossing "disposable fives", as he calls them, to his crib, rendering this "safe" discard null and void.

   

Saturday 7:21 AM

Late to the Party! Lead the 8 Card, and if it's PAIRED, we might see the Count go to Nineteen, then Thirty-One with our Trey and Deuce.

   

Saturday 11:43 AM

I think I'll look at four possible hands - 2-3-10-K (7-8), 2-3-7-8 (10-K), 2-3-7-10 (8-K) and 2-3-8-10 (7-K):

2-3-10-K: 4pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = -3½pts

2-3-7-8: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

2-3-7-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.20) = -2¼pts

2-3-8-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.27) = -2¼pts

Potential:

2-3-10-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 24 cuts.

2-3-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/7pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 32 cuts.

2-3-7-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 101010 = 21 cuts.

2-3-8-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 9999, 101010 = 25 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense to try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-7-8 will peg slightly best with two low cards and two middle cards.

Summary:

2-3-7-8 has the best starting value by ¼pt over 2-3-7-10 and 2-3-8-10. It also has guaranteed improvement and 32 cuts for 5-7pts which is a good increase on 2pts. Plus it should peg slightly best. So I'll throw the good balker 10-K.

   

Saturday 11:44 AM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-7-8____5.39+2.11+(-4.06)=3.44____22.2____22.2
2-3-8-10___4.96+1.67+(-4.14)=2.49____19.7____20.5
2-3-7-10___4.70+1.52+(-4.05)=2.17____19.6____20.4
2-3-8-K____4.70+1.59+(-4.22)=2.07____19.1____19.6
2-3-7-K____4.70+1.54+(-4.90)=1.34____19.4____18.9
3-7-8-10___4.04+1.33+(-4.28)=1.09____18.0____18.8
2-7-8-10___4.04+1.24+(-4.33)=0.95____17.7____18.5
3-7-8-K____3.96+1.26+(-4.50)=0.72____17.7____18.3
2-7-8-K____3.96+1.15+(-4.60)=0.51____17.3____17.9
2-3-10-K___6.52+1.30+(-7.43)=0.39____22.0____17.7

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-7-8_______36.8____51.5
2-3-8-10______36.3____52.6
2-3-7-10______36.1____52.6
2-3-8-K_______36.7____53.4
2-3-7-K_______38.5____54.7
3-7-8-10______36.6____54.0
2-7-8-10______36.5____54.0
3-7-8-K_______37.1____54.6
2-7-8-K_______37.1____54.8
2-3-10-K______43.9____57.5

2-3-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.95pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 10-K to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 2 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
2____________________2.14
8____________________2.00
3____________________1.86
7____________________1.76

   

Saturday 1:08 PM

Choosing offense at all points, 2-3-7-8 has the edge. That's because of the increased pegging value of the hold and the low-scoring potential of 10-K to opponent crib. Agree with the lead of the deuce from this configuration since it allows scoring the 15-2 on the dealer play of a five and a 15-2 on the play of any X-pointer. In most situations, would lead the trey to force the five off the play. Not here for the reasons indicated. .

   

Saturday 6:00 PM