September 16, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by CTB in VT
0-0*  ?
69%
11%
6%
5%
2%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 234
james500
4005 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 3:25 AM
I see T-K, but I'd like to try 8-K this morning. I'll lead the 3.
Inushtuk1
1560 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Saturday 4:20 AM
The cards tell me to make a defensive discard
MiketheExpert
1205 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 4:22 AM
I see only one correct answer by a significant margin. After the ignominious J cut, let's continue our offensive plan by leading the 2.
horus93
1330 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 4:36 AM
The offensive prospects of the aggressive (78) toss are simply not enough to outweigh the defensive value of the big balk - although, really, when I toss TK it seems there is a 70% chance of a nickle turning up on the deck or in the crib. The idea that starting pone should always play all-out offense is nothing short of a myth, and as great a player as Schell agrees with me there.

With only four points in hand, and despite dealer's two point boost from nob, I would play defense in the pegging. Even if dealer has a decent hand, a 0-2 point crib thanks to the TK could easily leave him pone next hand at 12 or less, and his surplus will have been cut in half. I think the deuce lead is the most defensive, but I still like going for the magic 5 for an easy and safe two points by leading the three especially this early in the game.
horus93 says: And, btw, starting pone has an 11 point surplus to win on an extra count even if he scores 0.
zeke76
1478 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Saturday 4:37 AM
Even Dan Campbell would punt in this situation
dec
6463 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:05 AM
Discard for the defense! dec
scottcrib
1719 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Saturday 5:28 AM
Not enough offense in the hand to be giving points away. Every cut helps.
Gougie00
5816 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:35 AM
When in doubt toss the opponent K-10. Lead the 3 and a peg a little.
Eolus619 says: weather…“Lee” looks ugly on the satellite image ..🤞crossed for you and other New Englanders
Gougie00 says: What's a little drizzle?
Eolus619
1424 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 5:44 AM
Colvert’s advice about GFn/d playing all out offense starting from the first hand is the answer…until it isn’t…reference Jazz’s increasingly famous cribbage theorem
Eolus619 says: I am still a bit puzzled about the results from yesterday’s puzzle..with 10-K ranked #2 choice with 31% of the votes. For anyone interested , I suggest the following exercise. Open the first link and have a look at Ras’s most effective Pone balking discards. https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp Then take those same discards and using this next link to Schell’s discard tables ..see what the value of those same discards are if it is dealer sending them to own crib.. https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp
Eolus619 says: whoops ..this is the correct schell link http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm
hecklebush
222 votes

Joined: February 2022

 
 
 
Saturday 7:02 AM
What a horrible hand to start with! TK to the crib, but my regular cribbage partner has a habit of tossing "disposable fives", as he calls them, to his crib, rendering this "safe" discard null and void.
hecklebush says: And I see that this got all messed up - kindly disregard these comments...
hecklebush says: And I see that this got all messed up - kindly disregard these comments...
JQT
4166 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 7:21 AM
Late to the Party! Lead the 8 Card, and if it's PAIRED, we might see the Count go to Nineteen, then Thirty-One with our Trey and Deuce.
JQT says: (2 3 7 8) gets at least Two Points added after ANY Cut Card, while (2 3 T K) fails to receive any help after Twenty-Two Cut Cards (6666, 777, 888, 9999, JJJJ, QQQQ), or nearly HALF of the remaining deck, so I would be hard-pressed to think of any position in which I might Toss (7 8).
Coeurdelion
5666 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 11:43 AM
I think I'll look at four possible hands - 2-3-10-K (7-8), 2-3-7-8 (10-K), 2-3-7-10 (8-K) and 2-3-8-10 (7-K):

2-3-10-K: 4pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = -3½pts

2-3-7-8: 2pts - 4pts (Schell: 3.88) = -2pts

2-3-7-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.20) = -2¼pts

2-3-8-10: 2pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.27) = -2¼pts

Potential:

2-3-10-K: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 7/8/10pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 101010, KKK = 24 cuts.

2-3-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6/7pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 = 32 cuts.

2-3-7-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 101010 = 21 cuts.

2-3-8-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 777, 888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 9999, 101010 = 25 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense to try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-7-8 will peg slightly best with two low cards and two middle cards.

Summary:

2-3-7-8 has the best starting value by ¼pt over 2-3-7-10 and 2-3-8-10. It also has guaranteed improvement and 32 cuts for 5-7pts which is a good increase on 2pts. Plus it should peg slightly best. So I'll throw the good balker 10-K.
HalscribCLX
5391 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 11:44 AM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-7-8____5.39+2.11+(-4.06)=3.44____22.2____22.2
2-3-8-10___4.96+1.67+(-4.14)=2.49____19.7____20.5
2-3-7-10___4.70+1.52+(-4.05)=2.17____19.6____20.4
2-3-8-K____4.70+1.59+(-4.22)=2.07____19.1____19.6
2-3-7-K____4.70+1.54+(-4.90)=1.34____19.4____18.9
3-7-8-10___4.04+1.33+(-4.28)=1.09____18.0____18.8
2-7-8-10___4.04+1.24+(-4.33)=0.95____17.7____18.5
3-7-8-K____3.96+1.26+(-4.50)=0.72____17.7____18.3
2-7-8-K____3.96+1.15+(-4.60)=0.51____17.3____17.9
2-3-10-K___6.52+1.30+(-7.43)=0.39____22.0____17.7

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-7-8_______36.8____51.5
2-3-8-10______36.3____52.6
2-3-7-10______36.1____52.6
2-3-8-K_______36.7____53.4
2-3-7-K_______38.5____54.7
3-7-8-10______36.6____54.0
2-7-8-10______36.5____54.0
3-7-8-K_______37.1____54.6
2-7-8-K_______37.1____54.8
2-3-10-K______43.9____57.5

2-3-7-8 is best for expected averages by 0.95pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 10-K to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead the 2 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
2____________________2.14
8____________________2.00
3____________________1.86
7____________________1.76
Ras2829
5234 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 1:08 PM
Choosing offense at all points, 2-3-7-8 has the edge. That's because of the increased pegging value of the hold and the low-scoring potential of 10-K to opponent crib. Agree with the lead of the deuce from this configuration since it allows scoring the 15-2 on the dealer play of a five and a 15-2 on the play of any X-pointer. In most situations, would lead the trey to force the five off the play. Not here for the reasons indicated. .
RGM
940 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 6:00 PM