September 17, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
107-108*  ?
71%
26%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 235
Gougie00
5825 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:05 AM
Lead the 5?
james500
4013 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:25 AM
Two points fewer than 55QK, but plenty more cuts will improve this hand. I'll lead the 7.
Inushtuk1
1569 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 4:07 AM
As James said. Lead the 7. Try to manufacture 2 points.
Eolus619 says: Mike..a seven would seem to place max pressure on the dealer for a very thoughtful and careful reply
MiketheExpert
1214 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 4:13 AM
Holding (5 5 Q K), there are 16 (55,TTTT,JJJJ,QQQ,KKK) outright winning cuts, while the rest of the cuts offer NO improvement whatsoever, and leave us having to peg 4 pts, a very tough task. Keeping (5 5 6 7), there are only 12 outright winning cuts (4444,55,666,777), however there are another 22 cuts which give us at least a DOZEN (3333,8888,TTTT,JJJJ,QQQ,KKK), needing only 2 pts to peg. Since 34/46 (74%) of the deck offers us substantial help, I cannot turn down this mathematical advantage by taking apart the double run. It is very likely dealer will be playing MAX defense, and I can see 2 potential options. We can lead from our pair of 5s after the J cut, and pretend like we already have this thing sewn up - or we can still continue by leading the 7 from the end of our run, hoping to parlay the fives during the course of pegging, or perhaps dealer will be FORCED to play a danger card which will allow us to earn points right here. (I do not consider the 5's as a pegging liability here, in fact this game is very likely over if we fail to reach our goal of 121). In fact, I still believe I like the 7 lead more, but more later...
MiketheExpert says: This would be a great hand for the Cribbage Pro app (only wish I could use it....)
JFS147 says: Hey MiketheExpert, let me know if you have any trouble using Cribbage Pro. It is available on most devices. Email me any time at support@FullerSystems.com
horus93
1330 votes

Joined: December 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 4:44 AM
Pegging two at this score is very difficult. I'd rather maximize my odds of counting out. 67 vs QK - yeah, QK gives us better odds of going to an extra hand, but 1) oppo will almost certainly be in peg-out range himself, so a win is not at all assured there; 2) at 108*, oppo will probably count out even with QK in the crib.

Parleying fives is hard for dealer, even harder for pone, especially when the two other cards are a six and a seven (high ranks).

I do think 5567 is not an outright bad idea, I just think pegging two is sufficiently difficult that I'd lean this way.
Umpman715
115 votes

Joined: December 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 5:27 AM
55QK leaves 16 cards to get the 14+ needed to win; 5567 leaves 12 cards.
zeke76
1486 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 5:41 AM
Holding the most initial points
Eolus619
1432 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 6:09 AM
A J cut …a double edge sword..dealer now 11 away ..Pone now needs two pegs ..before the cut I went with a compromise ..send Q-K..Ras says K most likely card to be held by dealer ..
Eolus619 says: upon further review..with this score Pone should be focused on winning this deal…so my thinking should be focused on a combination of my keep starting value, favorable cuts for my keep and pegging potential..regardless of my discard Dealer is most likely winning if Pone does not count out
dec
6472 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 6:30 AM
I have done my share of end games with cards like these. Sometimes its about the opponent having your matching card and they will probably fill the crib and attempt to play defense on the pegging hand. So I will go for more cuts for game hole here. Question was asked before. On this keep now I will lead a five and play off after. dec
glmccuskey
4187 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 6:50 AM
Max points with plenty of cuts to get us out.
hecklebush
229 votes

Joined: February 2022
 
 
 
Sunday 7:18 AM
Seems to me there are more cuts that help 5567 than 55QK, so that's the way I'll go. The J cut gives me 12, so I have to peg 2 otherwise my opponent most likely wins the game. Something tells me I'm going to lose - been here/done that too many times and I'll probably peg zero.
fentesk
1295 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 7:42 AM
Small sample, but I tried playing this out 10 times against Cribbage Pro with the Q-K discard and leading the 7 (my choice today) to see how often it wins.

The 7 lead went 10 for 10 winning, and gives me some interesting things to study for the Cribbage Pro pegging. One note I hadn't considered, 5-6-7-7 is in danger of dealer pegging out! I had 10 pegged against me twice, and dealer pegging was 10/10/8/8/7/6/2/1/1/1 (those are sorted and not chronological order).

Cribbage Pro likes to take the 15 on a 7 lead, which gives me the needed pegs with the 6 for the run of three (all four times it had kept an 8 in hand). I never played the 5s back to back for a pair. Once I won when I had to lead a 5 and it was paired, giving me 5 for 15 and 8 points. That was against J-6-5-4 (which was the order they were played against my 7-6-5-5). All 10 games I ended up playing my cards in that order (7-6-5-5). I pegged exactly 3 all but once (the 8 points noted above). That means when the cut is not forced to a J, this hand really wants to connect on the cut, at least for the 7 lead.

In general, the program kept higher cards, this often led to it needing to lead an X after I got my first "go", letting me play a 5 to win.

Also of note, in one game the program glitched and cut a 4 instead of the J. It held J-J-Q-K (discarding 4-7), unsure if somehow having the pair of Js in hand caused it, or if it was a coincidence (I didn't track the suits, so maybe if the opponent's hand is dealt the cut card it has to choose something else?).

If I add more trials with either the 5 or 7 lead I'll add a note later.
MiketheExpert says: Interesting results, fentesk. In fact, I think it would be generally unwise (especially after the J cut) for dealer to take the 15 on our 7 lead here, then needing only 11 pegs to go out. (Of course, it is possible he could be stuck with a bad hand, and needs to push in order to make it out, and in his view, considering we are 14 holes out, it would probably STILL be wise to play defense, getting the 1st count on next deal if necessary). I still favour the 7 lead, as possible defensive responses to our opening could be (X, A, 2, 3). If he plays the deuce or three on our lead, we have the 6 and 5 waiting in the wings to enable us to score our 15-2. If he plays an X-card, next I would play a 5 to make the count 22, either hoping for a go, or for him to play a small card (4 or lower) which could enable us to score our 31. While leading the 5 enables us to keep a wider range of cards, it also lowers the number of "probable" safe responses (dealer would probably not be inclined to play a (3,4,5,6,7,or X) on our 5 lead -> thus over the "safe" responses of A, 2,8,or 9, we have no way to immediately score points, and could run into "issues" trying to peg our 2 points.
MiketheExpert says: Also, if dealer does keep an (X X X X) hand, either the 5 or 7 lead should win the game for us -> the 7 will give us an eventual winning go, while the 5 will enable us to score a later 15-2 on the next round (as long as we maintain our other 5 while ridding ourselves of the 6 and 7 in the current pegging round).
JFS147 says: I think you might be right about the cut card glitch you mentioned. The game deals out the cards first, so if can't set the cut card because it is in a player's hand, it would end up pulling a random card instead. I'll get that fixed in the next update.
fentesk says: Tried ten more times with the K-Q discard and 5 lead. Won 7/10, though it would have been 6/10 but one game won due to a 6 cut (J of spades was discarded by dealer to crib). Ran into more low hands (e.g., 2-2-3-4, 2-2-4-6, 2-3-10-J, A-4-J-Q). The 5 lead didn't fair well against these (I didn't get these with the 7 lead so can't compare). A lesson for me, the 5 lead (at least against these 10 hands) led to more consistent lower dealer pegs (7,5,4,4,3,3,3,3,3,2). 10 hands each is far too few to make any definitive statements, but I felt like I was more in control with the 7 lead, and felt like I was reacting to what dealer was doing with the 5 lead.
fentesk says: Ten more with the 7 lead. Won the first 6, then lost 4 in a row for a total of 16/20 wins. Two losses were dealer pegging out (2-3-4-5, 2-3-3-4). Other losses were A-9-9-10 and 7-8-9-10. The 7 lead won against A-4-J-Q which beat the 5 lead. I find it interesting in this case that in what I read as a defensive position, a tightly bunched low hand seems to be better for dealer winning.
fentesk says: One other odd coincidence, in the three 10-hand trials, the eighth hand of each had a different cut, and those were the only three times it happened (almost certainly it's the J being dealt to dealer that leads to the different cut).
JQT
4175 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 8:25 AM
Not only is the Expected Average of our Hand minus the Crib Value of the Dealer's Crib maximized after Toss (Q K), but in fact, even before we consider the pegging and the Dealer's Crib, the Expected Value of just our Hand itself is actually maximized by nearly half a point after Toss (Q K)!

Therefore, we should Toss (Q K) with confidence today.

After the Jack Cut (and frankly, probably after nearly ANY Cut!), I would definitely lead a 5 Card from our PAIR, mostly in order to retain the Maximum Variety of remaining cards.
JQT says: With (5 5 Q K), Sixteen Cuts (55, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK) WIN, which is 16/46 equals nearly 35% of the remaining deck, but Thirty Cuts (AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 666, 777, 8888, 9999) or 30/46 equals 65% of the remaining deck add no help whatsoever; With (5 5 6 7), Twelve Cuts (4444, 55, 666, 777) WIN, which is 12/46 equals 26% of the remaining deck, while Twenty-Two additional Cuts (3333, 8888, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQ, KKK) get us a Dozen Points, where we'll need to peg Two Holes in order to WIN, which only needs to happen about one-third of the time to make this better than Toss (6 7). Only Four Cuts (AAAA) add no help. Is (5 5 6 7) a reliable Pegging Hand for obtaining Two Points? No, it is NOT, but it only has to be about 35% reliable in order to make the Double Run be best! This COMBINED EFFECT of the Double Run is superior, even though it has fewer WINNING Cuts, and even though it has fewer points to start off!
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Agree with the lead of the five for the same reasons you indicated. Better to have 3 cards of different ranks than two. If dealer scores 15-2 make the count 22 with the 7.
Ras2829
5244 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 9:14 AM
Whether choosing offense or defense the Q-K has got to go. I'm choosing offense for sure as would need to limit dealer to no more than 12 holes. Got two points for turning that Jack. So, what are chances to limit dealer to 10 holes? That's 1/7.5. Potential hand score of 5-5-6-7 is greater than that of 5-5-Q-K and Q-K discard has much lower average to dealer crib than does the 6-7.
Ras2829 says: Crib average for Q-K is 4.517 (1,579) and for 6-7 is 6.175 (422). Number in parentheses is times discarded to opponent in live play and results recorded.
LoneStarPegger
828 votes

Joined: January 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 9:53 AM
Running with scissors here! Holding max points with opportunities to get 14 or more.
Jason19
397 votes

Joined: March 2023
 
 
 
Sunday 10:25 AM
A whole lotta faces left to get me there.
scottcrib says: Hey!
Coeurdelion
5674 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Sunday 12:04 PM
We need 14pts to go out and usually only peg 1/2pts as Pone so I'll count cuts for 12pts+ for 5-5-6-7 (Q-K) and 5-5-Q-K (6-7). I don't think we need to worry about the discard as Dealer is likely to go out regardless:

5-5-6-7:

12pts 8888, 14xXs = 18 cuts
14pts 4444 = 4 cuts
16pts 666, 777 = 6 cuts
17pts 55 = 2 cuts
30 cuts

5-5-Q-K:

14pts 10101010 = 4 cuts
16pts QQQ, KKK = 6 cuts
17pts JJJJ = 4 cuts
20pts 55 = 2 cuts
16 cuts

So 5-5-6-7 has 14 more cuts for 12pts or more although all 16 cuts for 5-5-Q-K will score enough. I think 5-5-6-7 will peg better as well so I'll take my chances with throwing Q-K.
HalscribCLX
5400 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 12:48 PM
At 107-108* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense________Win %____Loss %
5-5-6-7_________53.6_____46.4
5-5-Q-K_________45.5_____54.5

5-5-6-7 is better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s so I'll select Q-K to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 5 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Pts_______Win %
5__________________1.46____________41.3
7__________________1.27____________31.8
6__________________1.23____________30.2
Obscure
95 votes

Joined: September 2022
 
 
 
Sunday 1:26 PM
Thankful to see that turn card today. With CribEDGE's selection below, the Jack of Spades is enough to take us past 120 points, and since we're the pone, we have the advantage of scoring our hand before our opponent.

Worried about opponent score, but default logic sufficed.
Keep: Five of Clubs, Five of Spades, Queen of Clubs, King of Diamonds
Toss: Six of Spades, Seven of Diamonds
Worth: 10 / Bonus: 2