September 18, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
111-104*  ?
34%
21%
16%
15%
3%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 396
james500
3954 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 3:14 AM
Lots of cuts get me pretty close to hole 121, if not beyond it.
Gougie00
5762 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:59 AM
Its the last train out of town.
scottcrib
1667 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Monday 4:40 AM
I'm going for the win. Every cut helps and many cuts put me out.
horus93
1300 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Monday 4:57 AM
Would rather start with six, 33 safer than 78 to oppo, many cuts for at least 8 and no cuts for four.
horus93 says: Oops miscounted :(
wasa
3048 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Monday 5:28 AM
Playing to win. I don't care about the crib score so did ponder tossing 2-3, 7-8, or even 3-3. I believe this hold is best for 8+ points. My cutting practice has paid off!
Hawthorn
495 votes

Joined: January 2023

 
 
 
Monday 5:34 AM
About three quarters of all cuts get me at least 8 points, and these look like promising pegging cards to bridge the gap to the winning hole if needs be.
dec
6392 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 5:51 AM
the six is not a hit. Got to invest on possible face cuts. After cut a three lead the best. dec
dec says: take it back all cuts gain. dec
Eolus619 says: dec..#8 on ecribbage..well done!
glmccuskey
4127 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Monday 6:13 AM
See no reason for defense in these positions.
Eolus619
1373 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Monday 6:29 AM
For me this ain’t as easy as it looks..In my mind ,I hear Rob saying ..don’t over think it and Al Miller saying ..don’t play defense into a close loss…and Ras telling me don’t rely on a favorable cut card .. if I play defense with a 2-7 discard no cut gets me out ..if I keep 2-3-3-7;..an A, 3 and 4 do it…playing for the win
Eolus619 says: The Princess of Randomness, aka Gougie00’s cribbage fairy, seals my win ..what a game this is
Eolus619 says: Also today,. i would be very interested and grateful to a voter who kept 2-3-7-8 to post their comment as to why
Obscure
95 votes

Joined: September 2022

 
 
 
Monday 6:31 AM
This close to the end of the game, the pone hopes to put as many points in his hand as possible to hopefully go out before the opponent. Here is CribEDGE's result for today:

Worried about opponent score, but default logic sufficed.
Keep: Three of Hearts, Seven of Diamonds, Seven of Clubs, Eight of Spades
Toss: Two of Hearts, Three of Spades
Worth: 6 / Bonus: 5
hecklebush
204 votes

Joined: February 2022

 
 
 
Monday 7:09 AM
All I can say is "yuk". Two half hands and it's the opponent's crib. I chose toss 33, so my opponent all ready has 6 points in his crib. I was hoping for a 6, 7, 8 or 9 cut, but such was not the case. Short of a pegging miracle, I've lost this game big time!
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 7:58 AM
(3 7 7 8) will probably win at least HALF of the time, but if you look at the cuts carefully, (2 3 3 7) shall win around 75% of the time! All other choices 'chime in' below 50%.

Someone voting very early today racked up many dozens of votes for (2 3 7 8), for some unknown reason (as it's a terrible choice), and that will skew today's votes quite a bit.
JQT says: No other hand comes close to either (2 3 3 7) or (3 7 7 8), so let's examine those two hands: (2 3 3 7) is helped to 8 Points or more by Thirty-Five Cuts (AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 77, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which is 35/46 = 76%; and of those remaining Eleven Cuts (6666, 888, 9999), all of them add Two Points, thus we always get at least Six Points. (3 7 7 8) is helped to Eight Points or more by Twenty-Seven Cuts (AAAA, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 77, 888, 9999), which is 27/46 = 59%; it stays at Six Points after all Nineteen of the remaining Cuts (222, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK).
JQT says: Surprisingly, (2 3 3 7) has only 15% of the votes as of noon ET. Earlier today, about 130 votes poured in for the absurd choice of (2 3 7 8), so the vote percentages should be viewed with those removed, and this would boost that 15% figure quite a bit.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Ran a query on Cribbage Prof and discards of 3-3, 2-7, and 7-8 are .05 hundredths apart.
JQT says: This puzzle is specifically constructed such that the cards and scores will challenge the player. We are not seeking the highest expected average with the Crib included, nor are we looking for the hand with the highest average, per se: we want the hand that, along with any pegging, has the best chance of yielding Ten Points! Some choices might yield more if we analyze our total minus the Dealer's Crib, and still others might show the highest resultant Hand Average. But what we need is the Hand that, along with any prospective pegging, get us to Hole 121 and do so most reliably. We should be able to peg a few holes more often than not, so this has to be included in the equation. If studied very carefully, the histogram for the hand on the C. Liam Brown site probably best illustrates the dynamics of why I believe that Toss (7 8) is clearly the superior Discard Choice today.
Inushtuk1
1517 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Monday 9:04 AM
If I flunk the cut I have three cards of high pegging value if need be. With the cut I lead the ‘safe” 3
fentesk
1233 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Monday 9:15 AM
Going for it now. Every cut helps, and this hold packs in cards with greater pegging value if I fall short.

I'm not sure what dealer score would have me switch to defense here with 2-7 or 2-8, maybe 100?
MiketheExpert
1153 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Monday 10:32 AM
Let's go for the win when opportunity knocks. There's too many 8+ pt cuts to pass up, and I quite like the odds of mustering up 2 pts on the pegging....Not quite as easy a decision for me, with dealer at hole 104 - but easier at hole 111...Now if I was only at 110, this would make all the difference.
Andy (muesli64)
2228 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Monday 12:39 PM
According to Hand Evaluator throwing 3-3 yields the highest hand. Marginally. So let's go for that.
Coeurdelion
5624 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 2:31 PM
We need 10pts to go out so I'll count the cuts for 8pts or more with 2-3-3-7 (7-8) and 3-7-7-8 (2-3):

2-3-3-7:

8pts: 222, 5555, 77 + 16xXs = 25 cuts

10pts: AAAA, 4444 = 8 cuts

12pts: 33 = 2 cuts
35 cuts

3-7-7-8:

8pts: AAAA, 33 = 6 cuts

10pts: 5555 = 4 cuts

12pts: 6666, 77, 888, 9999 = 13 cuts
23 cuts

Although 3-7-7-8 has 17 cuts that will take us straight out compared to 10 with 2-3-3-7 but the latter has 25 cuts for 8pts and the 2-3-3-7 should peg very well so I'll throw 7-8.
HalscribCLX
5347 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 2:34 PM
At 111-104* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense_________Win %______Loss %
2-3-3-7__________76.0_______24.0
3-7-7-8__________56.8_______43.2
2-7-7-8__________48.0_______41.5
2-3-3-8__________40.0_______42.3
3-3-7-8__________34.9_______27.4
2-3-7-8__________26.6_______31.0
3-3-7-7__________23.8_______26.0
2-3-7-7__________15.5_______26.5

2-3-3-7 is significantly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select a 7-8 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Defense:

Lead__________Dealer's Pegging Points
3_______________________2.49
7_______________________1.55
2_______________________1.50
JQT says: Very good data! Maybe that last bit should say "Pone's Pegging Points" above? Either that, or the numbers are listed in reverse order. Otherwise, all looks well.
Ras2829
5186 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:01 PM
N/D average is 9/10 points to inlcude the pegs. Am amazed that the majority this day chose 2-3-7-8 for two points. Somebody must have discovered a way for their vote to count multiple times. If not 125 voted to hold two points. Why not play the four cards most likely to win on this deal? Dealer needs 17 and 16 points (pegs, hand, and crib scores) is average. Agree with the lead of 3H and play off in pegging as have more than enough to win with first count.