Saturday 3:06 AM

Aside from the risky Toss (J J), Toss (6 9) is also Two Points, but it's somewhat ♋ less dangerous.

Toss (6 J) risks even less, but it also knocks several points off of the Hand, and this early in the game, I'll incur the risk and any wrath of Toss (6 9).

After the Trey of Hearts 💓 Cut, we now have Seven Points in our Hand. Let's lead a Jack from our PAIR. 🍐

   

Saturday 3:11 AM

I'm on course to win the race to hole 17, so I'll take a, "steady as she goes" approach.

J6 *should* be reasonably safe from these. They sum to 16 so cannot be part of the same 15/2 combo, and with a 5,6,9 and J in my hand, four immediately helpful cards are known to be unavailable to the crib. Fewer Spades in circulation than Hearts, so I'll discard that Jack with the red 6.

   

Saturday 4:06 AM

I will go with the ultra-defensive (6 J) throw here while keeping 4 starting points. Even early in the game, I don't particularly like the trend after one deal, and will try my hardest to keep my opponent below average on this deal. Of course, I already made the mistake of throwing the JH rather than the JS, which I rightly paid for :) (Due to having another spade in the hand, it would have been correct to throw the spade). My second choice would have been to throw (9 J).

   

Saturday 4:09 AM

Caution to the wind today with this hand-a multitude of cuts give us at least 12( 2 sixes,3 nines,4 fours and 4 sevens-im also going to lead the 9 and hope the dealer has an all picture hand-which would enable us to outpeg him 6-2

   

Saturday 4:31 AM

Dealer of this hand is a few holes short; so, will choose an optimal strategy knowing that have 7 points after the starter card. Will lead a Jack. If dealer scores 15-2 with a five, will advance the count to 25. It matters not whether choosing defense, offens, or optimal strategies, this keep has the edge in combined value. Will defer to HalscribCLX as to win/loss %.

   

Saturday 4:51 AM

Curling my nose and tossing the Jacks.

   

Saturday 4:51 AM

I’m looking at my cards here, thinking “Why didn’t you throw J 6 instead of J 9?”.

   

Saturday 5:30 AM

Hard to think about this play as defense but to me it is. Jack of hearts ( not that fake again! ) lead. dec

   

Saturday 6:16 AM

Hmmmm.devil and the deep blue sea puzzle…going to give up two points with discard..don’t like the possibility of sending Js that then match up with dealer sending 5s / 2-3…and also a 50% chance of nobs happening..of course 6-9 can match up with 7-8 in the crib…dealer’s most frequent toss by far …after reading Ras & Rob…I am a bit befuddled …which is an all too familiar occurrence with my cribbage game

   

Saturday 6:25 AM

I like Rob's strategy of preferring a potentially strong but risky hand early in the game, with high pegging prospects as well. If the situation was the middle of second street or beyond would maybe play differently depending on the relative positions.

   

Saturday 6:44 AM

Even though it’s early game, the position is pretty extreme at +10/-2. So I’d throw 6J for lack of any better options. I think JJ would be too aggressive - pairs in oppo crib do way better than they do in your own. Also a safer pegging hand. Choice of Jack is a Colvert call- I see one spade, and no hearts, so I’d toss the spade Jack. I’m not insensitive to the fact that 569J is not a stellar hand. This is a case of “playing defense now to play offense later” – hopefully the balk lands and I can afford to play on in the next hand. But imo anything else wouldn’t be worth the risk.

Checking Liam, I’m cautiously comfortable with this play, but wouldn’t dispute too much with those who did it differently. Tossing the aggressive JJ gives you a hand that averages 9.1, although this mean is distorted by big-but-unlikely cuts. It averages 6 in crib, which of course does not mean that it is worth “about six”. My 6J balk averages 4.1 in the crib – that’s heavy; the delta affected it more than I thought it would. The hand averages only 6.8, so offense may be on the cards next hand. Kinda shocked to be in a 6% minority today… this definitely ain’t a bad move. Oppo is only two points short of par.

To the cut, I’d stay on defense and lead the six.

Alright on to the game with Bozo Mae. On the third deal the score was 15*-21. This is a good example of a case where starting dealer (me) definitely *shouldn’t* play defense – as you can see, the dynamics have been offensive throughout. And on the other side, a case where starting pone did well to play defense, which he did. I wonder if Bozo is a Schellian.

Bozo was dealt 4556KK. Recognizing the defensive nature of his position, Bozo tossed 46 – with delta, it’s a decent balk, and 55KK is a safer pegger than 4556. I’d have tossed KK at this score – it’s early days, KK isn’t that dangerous. But he gets a nod for playing to the score, although I’d say this was a “hyperpositional” move. Can’t overly fault him for that, I make the same kind of mistake often enough, perhaps even in today’s puzzle.

I dealt myself A[A]4[78J]. Tossed 78, of course, to hold AA4J. The flush isn’t strong enough to outweigh 78 vs A4 in the crib, and a double nickle in hand.

The cut was… a four! Poor bozo, he could have held 4556.

Pegging went: K-4(14)-K(24)-A(25)-5(30)-A(31-2)//5-J(15-2)

So Bozo’s lead: a King, not a five. I do think there’s a general tendency for “serious” players to overestimate the risk of a five trap. Consider, dealer does not hold 34 or 67 every hand. And even if he does have ‘em, that’s three points (plus a likely “last”) – but leading a five would give up two a huge amount of the time. So I think he was right to lead the King. It also leaves an opening to rattle a lone five and so on – as we will see, Bozo in his pone pegging is very focused on the second play series, more than I am.

For me – I’m on max offense holding AA4J. So to a King lead, I could entice a run with the Jack. This also drives up the count and maximizes odds of parleying my aces. But in the moment, under the suasion of the gut, I decided to play into the three-card six with my four. Hard for me to say which of these replies is “really best”, they both have upsides and downsides.

In this case, it worked, and I got a 31, as well as a fifteen when Bozo was forced to lead a five as his last card.

So the cut was a 4, I held AA4J, pretty sure I got nob too. And my crib, with the 78 toss, was 44678. Good stuff – Bozo’s balk failed, as they do a substantial minority of the time, and I’m pone all the way at 41 next hand. Bozo pegged nothing and held a 12 point hand, so he’s dealing at 33*.

4.) 41-33*

Bozo had an easy choice, tossing 79 in his crib to hold JQKK.

I also had an easy choice, but not one I was so comfortable with. I was dealt A2368K. I had to toss the 68, anything else was too defensive, but I knew I was playing with fire. I’m at 41, right? I want to be dealing well past par, not merely around par. And with oppo 9 points short, it was worth the risk, but I don’t deny that it *was* a risk.

The cut was a Q. So I have a seven point hand. What’s the best lead here, holding A23K?

Schell thought the “standard” lead was a three with this hand, and that leading the K was only for desperate offense. But leading the three means leading into a bad six – you often give up a 31, or worse, like if oppo holds 23XX. So a low card lead isn’t *so* great on defense.

And on the offensive side, I seem to often get at least a 31 leading the X. And holding only 7 points, and with a cut that doesn’t appear to hit the 68 toss, I’m basically inclined to offense. So I lead the K. Meanwhile Bozo has a 16 point hand with the cut, and a goodish crib toss, so he’s on full offense and played accordingly. Pegging went:

K-K(20-2)-3(23)-“go”-2(25)-A(26-4)//K-Q(20)-J(30-4)

Besides choice of lead, and Bozo’s pairing me, this was all straightforward. We both got lucky in the pegging… but who comes out ahead?

Well, with my 68 toss hitting Bozo’s 79, he has an 8 point crib. No fair, 79 never does that well for me. And he had a sixteen point hand. I pegged four, but only had a seven point hand. So the score next hand is 52*-63, perilous indeed. Bozo has gotten into position in the front, I only have a ten point surplus in the back which cannot necessarily sustain defense. And you’ll hear more about it tomorrow!

   

Saturday 7:28 AM

This is so similar to a hand that I submitted. Thought that it was mine when I saw it. I went with keeping the 5, 6 and both jacks.

   

Saturday 7:40 AM

I like the defensive 6-Js here. We will be in position next hand as dealer where we can then “put the pedal to the metal”. And we still have plenty of cuts that will give us a decent hand (4,5,6,7,9,10,J).

   

Saturday 8:04 AM

Probably best to throw 6-J. Throwing 6-J, 6-9, 9-J much the same as each other. Throwing JJ could result in a run away crib. Up to 16 points. Let's sacrifice a half point or so, according to Hand Evaluator, and stay in the game.

   

Saturday 8:11 AM

Way too early in the game to give away a pair of Jacks. I'd only do that later in the game. Follow Ras's advice as to pegging. Make sure you toss the black 6 and 9 for a possible flush claim penalty.

   

Saturday 9:34 AM

I went with the majority toss of JJ and played out the hand on CribPro. It was a break-even with equal pegging and hands - his crib scored a pair and the right Jack for 3 points. Again, I recorded this and uploaded the results to YouTube. I may not do this every day as it's time consuming. Having some problems with the sound quality also. Also, working on a "Mock Cribbage Game" which is a video of a real, board game but with me playing both hands and only playing four hands. This would likely not be of much interest to you all as it tends to be very basic. Here's the Youtube link for today's DCH https://youtu.be/788oh_8wJIw

   

Saturday 10:16 AM

I'm with horus and fetch today. And make sure you toss the correct Jack.

   

Saturday 11:22 AM

What nicest guy in cribbage said.

   

Saturday 5:22 PM

I'll examine 5-6-J-J, 5-6-6-9 (J-J), 5-6-9-JH (6-J) and 5-6-6-JS (9-JH):

5-6-J-J: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -¼pt

5-6-6-9: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.42) = -¼pt

5-6-9-JH: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.57) = -½pt

5-6-6-JS: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.96) = -1pt

Potential:

5-6-J-J: Improves with 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/11/12pts with 4444, 555, 7777, JJ = 13 cuts. Plus 12 heart cuts and 11 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 23/46 = 0.50pt.

5-6-6-9: Improves with AAAA, 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 12/16pts with 4444, 66, 7777, 999 = 13 cuts.

5-6-9-JH: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 7/8/9pts with 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999, 10101010, JJ = 22 cuts. Plus 12 heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

5-6-6-JS: Improves with 3333, 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/10/14pts with 4444, 555, 66, 7777, 999, JJ = 18 cuts. Plus 11 spade cuts for Ipt extra for his nob = 11/46 = 0.24pt.

Position:

In three deals time if we score the average 10-16-10 we'll be at 52* while opponent will score on average 16-10-16 and will be at 56 so we're 8pts past 2nd street positional hole while opponent is 8pts short of where they'd like to be so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg quite well playing Defense.

Summary:

5-6-J-J and 5-6-6-9 are best for starting value by ¼pt over 5-6-9-JH but both the other hands have approximately ¼pt nob potential but 5-6-J-J has 0.50pt. nob potential. 5-6-6-9 also has the most cuts for improvement and 13 cuts for 12/16pt compared to 22 cuts for 7-9pts with 5-6-9-JH and 18 cuts for 8-14pts with 5-6-6-JS while 5-6-J-J has 13 cuts for 9-12pts. So overall I think 5-6-J-J may perform best and I'll throw a 6-9.

   

Saturday 5:28 PM

At 16-14* playing an Optimal strategy (cautious offense) for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total___W8 %____W9 %
5-6-J-J____8.59+(-0.93)+(-5.71)=1.95____43.4____50.2
5-6-9-JH___6.78+(-1.24)+(-4.11)=1.43____39.4____50.3
5-6-6-9____9.13+(-1.41)+(-6.42)=1.30____45.7____50.7
5-9-J-J____8.59+(-1.22)+(-6.53)=0.84____43.3____48.4
5-6-6-JS___7.20+(-1.78)+(-4.72)=0.70____38.9____48.5
5-6-6-JH___7.22+(-1.78)+(-4.75)=0.69____38.9____48.6

Optimal______L8 %____L9 %
5-6-J-J_______35.7____27.5
5-6-9-JH______31.1____26.6
5-6-6-9_______36.9____27.1
5-9-J-J_______37.9____29.4
5-6-6-JS______38.9____48.5
5-6-6-JH______38.9____48.6

5-6-J-J is best for expected averages by 0.52pt and although 5-6-9-9 is best for Win %s and 5-6-9-JH is lowest for Loss %s as it's early in the game I'll decide based on expected averages and select a 6-9 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead a J and play a SAFE strategy:

Lead____________Dealer's Pegging Points
J______________________(-2.42)
6______________________(-2.76)
5______________________(-3.32)

   

Saturday 6:02 PM

This may be the most split I've seen this site, making me feel better that I struggled to determine the best play. Pretty sure I ended up with this choice and as indicated at the top, it went extremely poorly. Thanks for all the great comments and thoughts!