Monday 3:05 AM

Five points with good potential. KA should be reasonably safe here. K lead.

Monday 3:22 AM

I’ll go with the 4 K with a chance at a cut for 14

Monday 4:27 AM

This kind of puzzle is particularly beneficial, as these sorts of hand seem to come up all the time during play. This early on, I'm keeping to the middle ground rather than risking giving away a large crib for a potentially higher-scoring hand score.

Monday 4:55 AM

Choosing offense as n/d of hand one, A-K is the toss. Since choosing offense will lead the King. Someplace else on the board, playing defense, would break the lower sequence with the trey lead.

Monday 4:55 AM

I'll go for a possible 14.

Monday 4:55 AM

Wide. King lead trying to utilize pegers here. dec

Monday 5:34 AM

Due to the way some Negative Delta 'plays around' with the Ace and the 4 Card, I don't see an appreciable difference in the Enemy Crib between Toss (A X) and Toss (4 X); however, the differences between these two ideas will manifest in our Hand.

The same can almost be said I believe for the Prospective Pegging of (A 2 3 X) vs. (2 3 4 X), as I view these as relatively equal, although (2 3 4 X) does contain a three-card Sweet Sixteen of 2-4-X. If we 'lead from the sweetness' of one of those three cards, and follow up using those cards, it's likely that we can obtain Thirty-One against commonly-seen Dealer Hands of both (5 X X X) and (5 5 X X).

(A 2 3 X) can indeed reach a higher Maximum Hand of Fourteen Points with Three Cuts (222), but (2 3 4 X) attains a slightly higher Expected Average (about one-fifth of a point), due to the added Two Points of help it receives from Eight Middle Card Cuts (6666, 8888), and the added One Point of help it receives from Four 5 Card Cuts (5555). This makes (2 3 4 X) a Superior Hand 🖐🏼 over (A 2 3 X), in my opinion.

Let's Toss (A K) today.

After the Trey Cut, we now have a lovely Dozen Points in our Hand, whether we decided to Toss (A K) or Toss (4 K). But after that Trey Cut appears, I feel slightly more comfortable that we placed the Ace "Edge" Card in the Enemy Crib, as opposed to what looks as though it could be a more dangerous 4 Card.

The Trey Lead, an old standard from such a hand as this, 'chases off' any Dealer's 5 Card Reply, and allows us to aim for an easy (15-2) after any "X" Card Reply. But as the First Non Dealer, we should probably seek to obtain as much pegging as we can, and there are often other ways to approach this.

Leading the Deuce may also allow us to aim for either an immediate (15-2) after any of Fourteen "X" Cards, while also allowing us to keep the Thirty-One in play if the Dealer unloads an early 5 Card, which we would respond to with our King. This is a very sound idea as well, as we should note that an effective Pegging Strategy is seldom based upon just a single play or card: it should involve as many cards as possible, and be linked to or use an overall plan or strategy.

A King Lead, however, seeks to maximize our overall pegging, while ignoring that it might also enable the Dealer a few easy pegging points. By unloading the "oddball" King right away, this serves to stack our optimum 2-3-4 Pegging Cards to all be played toward the latter or end-phase of the pegging, and it can often generate substantial points, especially if we can get the Dealer 'jammed up' at a Count of Twenty-Two or thereabouts.

Since this is the First Deal in a new game, let's lead our King 👑 and try to secure the most possible points we can.

I've mapped out both candidate hands below:

(0-0*) (Ah 2c 3s 4h Ks Kc) Cut = 3h, by MiketheExpert, Nov 20, 2023

Keep (2 3 4 K) and Toss (A K)

Expected Hand Average is 364 DIV 46 = 7.913
Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.300
Total is 3.613 🥇

06x12=072 - 222, 333 (Maximum Hand, 6 cuts = 12 Points)
03x10=030 - 444 (9 cuts >= 10 Points)
02x09=018 - KK (11 cuts >= 9 Points)
07x08=056 - AAA, 5555 (18 cuts >= 8 Points)
24x07=168 - 6666, 8888, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ (42 cuts >= 7 Points)
04x05=020 - 7777 (Minimum Hand, 4 Cuts = 5 Points)
46 ___ 364


Keep (A 2 3 K) and Toss (4 K)

Expected Hand Average is 356 DIV 46 = 7.739
Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.360
Total is 3.379 🥈

03x14=042 - 222 (Maximum Hand, 3 cuts = 14 Points)
06x12=072 - AAA, 333 (9 cuts >= 12 Points)
02x09=018 - KK (11 cuts >= 9 Points)
03x08=024 - 444 (14 cuts >= 8 Points)
20x07=140 - 5555, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ (34 cuts >= 7 Points)
12x05=060 - 6666, 7777, 8888 (Minimum Hand, 12 Cuts = 5 Points)
46 ___ 356

Monday 5:54 AM

I like the 2-3-4 vs A-2-3 because it brings the 6-8 into play for an extra two points

Monday 5:56 AM

Tough puzzle, expecially since I took a look at it before coffee and somewhat hapzarded due to a need to start work early.
My toss did not place me in the herd. Nice cut which turned both the high straight and low into doubles. Checking Liam confirmed why this one was difficult for me, top 4 discards are within 0.2 points.

Next up on to the comments (after coffee of course)

Monday 6:09 AM

Lone ace seems like a liability. One of the four's is in my hand ( negative delta?)

Monday 6:30 AM

Looks like I'm wrong this morning, but I'm more of a "full offence" when pone at first deal. Maximum points. RAS tells me not to fear A-4.

Monday 6:31 AM

100 percent agree with Gary’s spot on assessment today

Monday 6:31 AM

At first I thought I discarded AK too hastily, not allowing for the 14 point hand by discarding 4K. However, JQT explained quite nicely why my original discard was the best afterall. Also, referring to JQT, I'll play out these games on CribPro and keep a tally of wins vs expected wins. Since we are at hand #1 today and my opponent has first deal, I'll assign a likely win at 45%.

Monday 7:11 AM

(A K), as JQT has kindly mapped out above, leaves the hand with the best expected average and the lowest opposing crib value, so there is no other choice that can beat it. My strategy is generally offense first hand pone. After the trey cut, I may try and "confuse" my opponent by leading the deuce. This may lead them to believe that I am leading from a pair of deuces, but it might be hard for them to determine what kind of hand I'm leading from (it would be a guess as to whether my hand also has a trey to match the cut). I don't mind the K lead for a potential pegging coup towards the latter stages of pegging, but I would prefer it better if I had another high card to match.

Monday 7:14 AM

Applying Jazz’s cribbage theorem today..Colvert ..all out offense for Games 1st Pone…is the answer until it isn’t..so will no try for 14….and No use not planning for a favorable cut today since 12/13 ranks help …and i think 2-3-4 ,although bunched , has pegging value.

Monday 8:21 AM

I mentioned the other day that I thought 456?? hands were tricky, with the top picks being close, and that I often pick the slightly-less-good of the available options. Well, A234?? hands are the same for me.

In general, though, with some exceptions, A234 is wrong, both for the show and for the pegging, as Colvert pointed out.

Tossing A4 to hold 23KK is too offensive at 0-0*, for me. There are plenty of missing/glancing cuts, and while A4 is fairly safe (surprisingly safe, actually), it still doesn't seem like a good gamble, especially when the LLLK hands also have huge cuts *and* are better for offensive pegging, but b/w a balk.

Some might toss AK under the theory that it is a strong balk. That's not a theory, I guess, more a matter of fact. But what isn't so widely recognized on DCH is that 4K is nearly as good, only a tenth worse than AK, and both tosses have a fair amount of delta here. The four is the second best low card for pone to throw dealer, next to the ace and not far behind it, all else being equal. It functions as an edge card because of dealer's bias to retain fives.

234K has a three-card sixteen. A23K has a four-card sixteen. The latter is better for pone imo - why? First, because three-card sixteens tend to give up a 31 against dealer three card fifteens, and depending on the nature of dealer's hand, can give up a lot. Three card fifteens a la A4X, 23X, are super common. But pone seems to me to fare better with a four card sixteen. Against A4XX, for example, one of the most common dealer hands, pone can can easily peg seven points, pairing dealer's defensive Ace reply to a X lead, and then trapping the four for a 31-5.

I can't say I know this for a fact, and I'm sort of "padding" my gut here, but in general it seems to be the case, although certainly there are times 234K would well outpeg A23K. It's not an easy question, since a lot depends on the order the cards are played.

Then there's a more obvious and decisive factor - it's easier to run off lower cards than higher ones, and there's more "space" to trap something in the second series with A23. Don't be fooled by the 34 "five trap" - it's pretty much non-functioning unless dealer holds *two* fives.

Cards are good enough that I'm certainly thinking about offensive pegging in the discard. Even with a bad cut, I doubt that A23K is so much worse than 234K on defense, especially if you just hold your breath and lead the King.

Checking Liam, the maximally offensive 23KK (A4) only outscores 234K and A23K by .4 and .6, respectively, but the crib is worse by 1.6 or 1.7, so I'd say it's not worth it - pegging would make up most of that gap, maybe even close it. But that's just an opinion. Anyone who thinks they know the perfect discard/play in every situation is kidding themselves - cribbage is still uncharted territory after all these years.

Comparing A23K and 234K - A23K is worse by 0.2. It could easily make that up in the pegging, imo, and it's probably nearly a toss-up between these two, along my line of thought. Really I'm inclined to say that A23K would make up 0.2 and a little more.

Sweet cut, play max offense and lead the King.

Alright I'm gonna finish off this game with Bozo Mae posting the last three hands together, so apologies for the length, but I hope it's been half as much fun to read as it has been to write. As you'll recall, I had made a wild (but imo perfectly justifiable) discard at 63-72*, it'd gone horribly wrong, and on the seventh deal we're at...

7.) 72*-91

I had an easy discard choice - tossed the super weak A9 to hold JJQK. At this score, again a double marginal, I probably can't afford defense, unless I cut a five or get a quadruple run or something like that.

Bozo also had an easy one. He tossed the QK balk to hold 2567.

The cut was a nine. So it sorta hits my A9 toss, but I'm still not very hopeful there. I have to play on and take my chances. And Bozo too is left holding a relatively weak, 7 point hand. He decides to go for it and play offense - probably the right call at this score; if he was at closer to 85, he would have likely played more defensively.

Pegging went: 7-J(17)-6(23)-"go"-5(28)-2(30-1)//J-Q(20)-K(30-4).

Nothing too remarkable there. He led the seven to entice a fifteen, but against my high ranks had to play out his whole hand for a measly "go". I got to run off my JQK for three+last. Second time the pegging has gone that way this game. I had an nine point hand with nob and a 2 point crib - Bozo's balk landed yet again, aided by the fact that I myself had thrown a balk.

So next hand we're at...

8.) 87-99*

I guess my situation has kind of improved... I've fallen one point in the "back", but at least Bozo's surplus in the front is only 4 points as opposed to six. Still pretty much the same game here, a double marginal. As my brother likes to say, "it's simple, you just have to get good cards and I have to get bad cards".

Easy discard - we need offense and defense, right? I was dealt 7899QK. Perfect, a decent balk and a good hand.

Bozo had 24446T and tossed himself 2T. Nothing much else you can do with that hand.

The cut was... a 9! So I now have a seventeen point hand. This is no longer a double marginal, but a heavily defensive position with oppo only 4 points past par. We all win games like that all the time, though the odds are still certainly against us.

Bozo has an eight point hand and 29T?? in the crib.

Pegging went 9-6(15-2)-9(24)-4(28-1)//7-4(11)-8(19)-4(23-1)
I led the nine for fewest losers. Maybe leading the seven or eight would be somehow more clever, but I didn't see that in the moment, and still don't.

Bozo took the fifteen, keeping his 444 together. Even though he knew I might be enticing such a reply, a four does have more losers. He also may have decided to "shift" to a more offensive posture seeing my lead matched the cut card. Then I played another nine to drive up the count, although again maybe there's some super subtle reason to play something else that I'm missing. The rest of the play was straightforward.

My QK balk hit home - Bozo had a 0 crib. And only, like I said, an average 8 point hand. So the score on the final deal is...

9.) 104*-111

Oh man, like something in a book.

I dealt myself A235JK and tossed the 5J. At this score, ofc I don't need to tell you, you discard for max scoring, then hope and pray that your crib tides you over regardless of the cut, and play max defense in the pegging.

Bozo was dealt 89TT. I forgot to write down his crib toss.

The cut was an eight. So that's game. In a live match, Bozo would have just laid out his cards and we'd call it quits (assuming no spread points, which are an abomination).

Pegging went: 8-K(18)-9(27)-3(30)-"go"-A(31-2)//T-2(12)-T(22-1)

I think the K reply to the 8 is best on defense even if it leaves you with the bunched A23. The risk of getting into low-card trouble is probably lower than the risk of pone fifteening a low-card reply, imo.

So that's that, a not-so-close loss. I did run into him again the other day and got my revenge, but the game wasn't nearly as interesting - I got really good cards, he got bad cards, game over. So until me and Inushtuk do ours, I'll keep "hunting" for one worth writing up, and thanks for reading! I would encourage anyone else to try their hand at the same thing. You can take a screenshot with a simple keystroke, and depending on what site you're playing you do that maybe a couple of times a hand, and that's everything. The first time you do it it's awkward and annoying but you quickly get used to it.

Monday 10:17 AM

Realy 46% who care the difference in the K's?

Monday 11:29 AM

I threw K 4, but I think I should have gone with the crowd and thrown K A.

Monday 12:16 PM

I went wide. Lead the 3.

Monday 1:19 PM

K & A, lead the 2. With this hand & the 2 lead, I expect to get 2-4 pegging points minimum. I love this hand because it has a dual personality of sorts. The hand should be a wonderful opportunity for pegging points and the cut card will likely help us (only the 7 hurts us here). At the same time, it's also one of the better defensive throws to the pones crib.

Monday 3:54 PM

keeping the King of Spades or the King of clubs is essentially the same move, so that makes my choice actually the 2nd most popular.
I've been playing sevral games every day at cards.jd.com and I believe I have risen to the level of "not horrible".
I have 2 very basic questions. i get that the answer may differ depending on dealer/pone or how the game is going, but as a general rule is it better to keep one run of 3 or 2 disconnected pairs? I lean towards the run because while it is one fewer point, it has a much better possibility for enhancement.

The second question is is it EVER correct to separate a pair of 5's?

Monday 4:04 PM

well A K is the best toss to opponent and it leaves me with an excellent hand.

Tuesday 2:01 AM

I'll look at 2-3-4-K (A-K), A-2-3-K (4), 2-3-K-K (A-4) and perhaps A-2-3-4 (K-K):

2-3-4-K: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.30) = +½pt

A-2-3-K: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.36) = +½pt

2-3-K-K: 6pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = 0pt

A-2-3-4: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.65) = -1¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, KK = 18 cuts.

A-2-3-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 9999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, KK = 14 cuts.

2-3-K-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, KK = 18 cuts.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense and try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-4-K and A-2-3-K will peg well but playing Offense I think A-2-3-4 will peg best.

Summary:

2-3-4-K and A-2-3-K have the best starting value by ½pt over 2-3-K-K and 2¼pts over A-2-3-4. 2-3-4-K has more cuts for improvement than A-2-3-K although 2-3-4-K has 18 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 18 cuts for 8-14pts with A-2-3-K. A-2-3-4 has guaranteed improvement with 38 cuts for 7-10pts and it should peg best but I don't think it will catch up the 2¼pts so I'll throw an A-K.

Tuesday 2:02 AM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-4-K____7.91+2.07+(-3.93)=6.05____27.2____26.4
A-2-3-K____7.74+2.00+(-3.98)=5.76____26.5____25.2
A-2-3-4____8.09+1.96+(-5.62)=4.43____27.9____23.3
2-3-K-K____8.30+1.30+(-5.74)=3.86____25.4____22.9

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-4-K_______36.5____48.3
A-2-3-K_______37.0____49.2
A-2-3-4_______42.1____52.4
2-3-K-K_______39.3____52.0

2-3-4-K is best for expected averages by 0.29pt. over A-2-3-K and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select an A-K to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the K and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
K_____________________1.87
3_____________________1.58
4_____________________1.55
2_____________________1.55