November 20, 2023

*** This hand was suggested by MiketheExpert
0-0*  ?
37%
16%
15%
9%
9%
7%
3%
0%
0%
Total votes: 266
james500
4005 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 3:05 AM
Five points with good potential. KA should be reasonably safe here. K lead.
MA2906Bptrs
280 votes

Joined: October 2023

 
 
 
Monday 3:22 AM
I’ll go with the 4 K with a chance at a cut for 14
Ras2829 says: Hi MA2906Bptrs: Nice to see you comment. Welcome aboard and enjoy the ride.
Eolus619 says: I 2nd Ras..keep posting ❗️
Hawthorn
538 votes

Joined: January 2023

 
 
 
Monday 4:27 AM
This kind of puzzle is particularly beneficial, as these sorts of hand seem to come up all the time during play. This early on, I'm keeping to the middle ground rather than risking giving away a large crib for a potentially higher-scoring hand score.
Ras2829
5234 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:55 AM
Choosing offense as n/d of hand one, A-K is the toss. Since choosing offense will lead the King. Someplace else on the board, playing defense, would break the lower sequence with the trey lead.
fentesk says: Does your choice of king to keep (club vs. spade) denote any bias or likelihood of the 2 being the next card played (to look like a flush as long as you can), or is which king to keep a complete toss up for you today?
MiketheExpert says: Hi Ras. If the pegging sequence goes K(10)-5(15)-?, as pone which of our remaining low cards would you play next? The 4 would seem to encourage "maximum" offensive potential - if an inexperienced dealer dangerously plays a 6 next, we may be able to do huge damage with our remaining 2-3. And also, making the count 19 does not seem like a bad play, as we could close the count with 31 on any other X-card reply.
Ras2829 says: Hi Mikethe Expert: Yes, choosing offense as strategy would play the 4-spot on the five. Quite often can score two runs with the 2-3 intact. And you're absolutely correct on scoring the two points with the deuce if dealer advances count to 29.
Ras2829 says: It matters little which King is held. Might play off either end of the sequence dependent on what card dealer shows me in response to the King. True the 2 would be more commonly dropped since would allow two cards in sequence remaining (3-4). Since choosing offense, would be less likely to drop the trey and have the 2-4 gapper remaining. Guess that covers the bases.
scottcrib
1719 votes

Joined: August 2019

 
 
 
Monday 4:55 AM
I'll go for a possible 14.
dec
6463 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 4:55 AM
Wide. King lead trying to utilize pegers here. dec
JQT
4166 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Monday 5:34 AM
Due to the way some Negative Delta 'plays around' with the Ace and the 4 Card, I don't see an appreciable difference in the Enemy Crib between Toss (A X) and Toss (4 X); however, the differences between these two ideas will manifest in our Hand.

The same can almost be said I believe for the Prospective Pegging of (A 2 3 X) vs. (2 3 4 X), as I view these as relatively equal, although (2 3 4 X) does contain a three-card Sweet Sixteen of 2-4-X. If we 'lead from the sweetness' of one of those three cards, and follow up using those cards, it's likely that we can obtain Thirty-One against commonly-seen Dealer Hands of both (5 X X X) and (5 5 X X).

(A 2 3 X) can indeed reach a higher Maximum Hand of Fourteen Points with Three Cuts (222), but (2 3 4 X) attains a slightly higher Expected Average (about one-fifth of a point), due to the added Two Points of help it receives from Eight Middle Card Cuts (6666, 8888), and the added One Point of help it receives from Four 5 Card Cuts (5555). This makes (2 3 4 X) a Superior Hand 🖐🏼 over (A 2 3 X), in my opinion.

Let's Toss (A K) today.

After the Trey Cut, we now have a lovely Dozen Points in our Hand, whether we decided to Toss (A K) or Toss (4 K). But after that Trey Cut appears, I feel slightly more comfortable that we placed the Ace "Edge" Card in the Enemy Crib, as opposed to what looks as though it could be a more dangerous 4 Card.

The Trey Lead, an old standard from such a hand as this, 'chases off' any Dealer's 5 Card Reply, and allows us to aim for an easy (15-2) after any "X" Card Reply. But as the First Non Dealer, we should probably seek to obtain as much pegging as we can, and there are often other ways to approach this.

Leading the Deuce may also allow us to aim for either an immediate (15-2) after any of Fourteen "X" Cards, while also allowing us to keep the Thirty-One in play if the Dealer unloads an early 5 Card, which we would respond to with our King. This is a very sound idea as well, as we should note that an effective Pegging Strategy is seldom based upon just a single play or card: it should involve as many cards as possible, and be linked to or use an overall plan or strategy.

A King Lead, however, seeks to maximize our overall pegging, while ignoring that it might also enable the Dealer a few easy pegging points. By unloading the "oddball" King right away, this serves to stack our optimum 2-3-4 Pegging Cards to all be played toward the latter or end-phase of the pegging, and it can often generate substantial points, especially if we can get the Dealer 'jammed up' at a Count of Twenty-Two or thereabouts.

Since this is the First Deal in a new game, let's lead our King 👑 and try to secure the most possible points we can.

I've mapped out both candidate hands below:

(0-0*) (Ah 2c 3s 4h Ks Kc) Cut = 3h, by MiketheExpert, Nov 20, 2023

Keep (2 3 4 K) and Toss (A K)

Expected Hand Average is 364 DIV 46 = 7.913
Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.300
Total is 3.613 🥇

06x12=072 - 222, 333 (Maximum Hand, 6 cuts = 12 Points)
03x10=030 - 444 (9 cuts >= 10 Points)
02x09=018 - KK (11 cuts >= 9 Points)
07x08=056 - AAA, 5555 (18 cuts >= 8 Points)
24x07=168 - 6666, 8888, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ (42 cuts >= 7 Points)
04x05=020 - 7777 (Minimum Hand, 4 Cuts = 5 Points)
46 ___ 364


Keep (A 2 3 K) and Toss (4 K)

Expected Hand Average is 356 DIV 46 = 7.739
Expected Crib Value (Schell) is 4.360
Total is 3.379 🥈

03x14=042 - 222 (Maximum Hand, 3 cuts = 14 Points)
06x12=072 - AAA, 333 (9 cuts >= 12 Points)
02x09=018 - KK (11 cuts >= 9 Points)
03x08=024 - 444 (14 cuts >= 8 Points)
20x07=140 - 5555, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ (34 cuts >= 7 Points)
12x05=060 - 6666, 7777, 8888 (Minimum Hand, 12 Cuts = 5 Points)
46 ___ 356
glmccuskey
4178 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Monday 5:54 AM
I like the 2-3-4 vs A-2-3 because it brings the 6-8 into play for an extra two points
Andy (muesli64) says: 6-8 good for your oppo's box too. lol
sterno
489 votes

Joined: December 2020

 
 
 
Monday 5:56 AM
Tough puzzle, expecially since I took a look at it before coffee and somewhat hapzarded due to a need to start work early.
My toss did not place me in the herd. Nice cut which turned both the high straight and low into doubles. Checking Liam confirmed why this one was difficult for me, top 4 discards are within 0.2 points.

Next up on to the comments (after coffee of course)
HfxKen
959 votes

Joined: February 2020

 
 
 
Monday 6:09 AM
Lone ace seems like a liability. One of the four's is in my hand ( negative delta?)
wasa
3092 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Monday 6:30 AM
Looks like I'm wrong this morning, but I'm more of a "full offence" when pone at first deal. Maximum points. RAS tells me not to fear A-4.
mrob2199
1492 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Monday 6:31 AM
100 percent agree with Gary’s spot on assessment today
hecklebush
222 votes

Joined: February 2022

 
 
 
Monday 6:31 AM
At first I thought I discarded AK too hastily, not allowing for the 14 point hand by discarding 4K. However, JQT explained quite nicely why my original discard was the best afterall. Also, referring to JQT, I'll play out these games on CribPro and keep a tally of wins vs expected wins. Since we are at hand #1 today and my opponent has first deal, I'll assign a likely win at 45%.
JQT says: Since most games last nine or ten deals, a single deal within a game will only affect maybe 10% of that game's scoring. If you wish to examine Pone and Dealer averages in Cribbage, it's probably both easier and more accurate to simply record the game score after the current deal has completed. Thus, starting from (0-0*), after 100 playouts of random deals, you might log resultant Next Deal beginning scores such as: (8*-17), (11*-14), (9*-19), etc., and then if you add up all of both scores and divide by 100 (the number of trials), you should end up with an average of (10*-16), which combines of course to be Colvert's "Twenty-Six Theory" of Cribbage. Now, if you were to take today's puzzle, and use this specific deal, you might wish to compare two or more discards and see how they compare with the known averages, but more importantly, how your results COMPARE WITH ONE ANOTHER, to see which idea you prefer. Note that you might have two choices that turn out to generate resultant scores of say (8*-14) and (12*-18), and in each case, we are trailing by Six Holes, so you are then challenged to determine which Relative Score is better for us! And that would entail another lesson entirely!
hecklebush says: Well, let me ruminate on that for a while. In the meantime, I played the first hand and the Next Deal score was (13*-7). I stole his crib big time and recorded the result for future reference.
MiketheExpert says: Interestingly enough, it would be very hard for me to answer that question, as to which would be a preferable relative score. I may even go so far as to say what is better for one person may not be better for another! Personally I would choose the first one (8*-14), as I feel I have more "real estate" to work with, or correct this disadvantage coinciding with my general style of play. However, people who are offense risk-takers may very well prefer the latter, as they are simply "closer" to their goal of where they'd like to be, and less concerned about opponent's actual position.
fentesk says: To give some numbers to anyone playing along at home (or the library) -and because I still have the link to such numbers open from Coeurdelion - dealer win %s for various scores are: 8*-14 [42.94%]. 10*-16 [42.82%]. 12*-18 [42.85%]. This all leads me to agree with the sentiment that it's a style choice and what's better for one person may not be better for another.
JQT says: About a dozen years ago, I tried to develop the "Fair Cribbage Board" based on a "Modulo 26" concept, such that by extending the game length to 130 Holes, we would encounter 130/26 equals an Integer Number of FIVE "Cycles" of Twenty-Six Points. While a Game-in-130 concept might give the First Dealer less than the current edge of about a 12% advantage, I don't know that we could ever truly have a "fair" game if both Pone and Dealer have to start on the same Hole Zero, UNLESS the board was of an INFINITE LENGTH (very expensive, bad for trees, tournaments never end!). Using the numbers and orbitals and theories that are floating around, can any mathematician find the BEST game length for Cribbage that gives both players closest to an equal chance as possible? Let's rule out a Game Length of One Hole (although this might be close to being the answer as any LOL), and work backwards from there! How many holes long does a game of Cribbage need to be to make the odds for both players as EQUAL AS POSSIBLE?
horus93 says: I gotta pick on the orbitals numbers. They're based on the idea of computerized "optimal positional play" on both sides. But as we see here every day, great minds disagree on what this actually entails. I do cite orbitals when it backs up whatever point I'm trying to make, though ~:) A bad habit I'll try to stop. No library today, at parents' house with a bad cough (covid??) doing laundry. Between 8*-14, 10*-16, 12*-18, I'd say it really is pretty much a tossup. What JQT says about an infinite board reminds me of Barlow - he thought positional play in early game wasn't worth anything unless the game was going to a thousand points. Ofc he was wrong on that, and that's not the point JQT was making either. Leaving aside the issue of the 130 hole board, based on Orbitals (there I go again citing it) if pone starts with a three point head start, like in five-card, the win rates are about equal. That's also how "intellectualinmate" plays, and apparently due to his influence how they play in a number of jails and such in Virginia. (They don't have boards, but use a modified "dominos" system of tallies on a piece of paper, which he showed to me, but was kinda complicated and I can't remember it all.) The only way to really settle this would be a series of very tedious and lengthy experiments. And would this be worth it? I like my unbalanced cribbage. It's cool how starting pone and starting dealer have different games, imo. The idea of a fair board is very difficult because you have to weigh peg-out versus count-out odds, but I suspect the three point bonus is as good idea as any.
MiketheExpert says: I suppose that in theory you may have to give pone a 6-pt head start in the 121-pt game to make the odds approximately equal - but would this in reality make the win rate ~50-50 assuming 2 players of equal skill level? Seems like it would take a large number of samples to figure out if it is actually the case. And for that matter, why do we give pone the 3-pt head start in a 61-pt game, while no adjustment is made in a regular game for dealer's starting advantage?
MiketheExpert
1205 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Monday 7:11 AM
(A K), as JQT has kindly mapped out above, leaves the hand with the best expected average and the lowest opposing crib value, so there is no other choice that can beat it. My strategy is generally offense first hand pone. After the trey cut, I may try and "confuse" my opponent by leading the deuce. This may lead them to believe that I am leading from a pair of deuces, but it might be hard for them to determine what kind of hand I'm leading from (it would be a guess as to whether my hand also has a trey to match the cut). I don't mind the K lead for a potential pegging coup towards the latter stages of pegging, but I would prefer it better if I had another high card to match.
MiketheExpert says: If leading the K, I'm expecting a 15-2, however my hope would be that dealer lays down a 6, 8, or 9. There are a few pegging sequences in which I may earn a run or possibly multiple runs to peg if lucky....
Eolus619
1424 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Monday 7:14 AM
Applying Jazz’s cribbage theorem today..Colvert ..all out offense for Games 1st Pone…is the answer until it isn’t..so will no try for 14….and No use not planning for a favorable cut today since 12/13 ranks help …and i think 2-3-4 ,although bunched , has pegging value.
horus93
1330 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Monday 8:21 AM
I mentioned the other day that I thought 456?? hands were tricky, with the top picks being close, and that I often pick the slightly-less-good of the available options. Well, A234?? hands are the same for me.

In general, though, with some exceptions, A234 is wrong, both for the show and for the pegging, as Colvert pointed out.

Tossing A4 to hold 23KK is too offensive at 0-0*, for me. There are plenty of missing/glancing cuts, and while A4 is fairly safe (surprisingly safe, actually), it still doesn't seem like a good gamble, especially when the LLLK hands also have huge cuts *and* are better for offensive pegging, but b/w a balk.

Some might toss AK under the theory that it is a strong balk. That's not a theory, I guess, more a matter of fact. But what isn't so widely recognized on DCH is that 4K is nearly as good, only a tenth worse than AK, and both tosses have a fair amount of delta here. The four is the second best low card for pone to throw dealer, next to the ace and not far behind it, all else being equal. It functions as an edge card because of dealer's bias to retain fives.

234K has a three-card sixteen. A23K has a four-card sixteen. The latter is better for pone imo - why? First, because three-card sixteens tend to give up a 31 against dealer three card fifteens, and depending on the nature of dealer's hand, can give up a lot. Three card fifteens a la A4X, 23X, are super common. But pone seems to me to fare better with a four card sixteen. Against A4XX, for example, one of the most common dealer hands, pone can can easily peg seven points, pairing dealer's defensive Ace reply to a X lead, and then trapping the four for a 31-5.

I can't say I know this for a fact, and I'm sort of "padding" my gut here, but in general it seems to be the case, although certainly there are times 234K would well outpeg A23K. It's not an easy question, since a lot depends on the order the cards are played.

Then there's a more obvious and decisive factor - it's easier to run off lower cards than higher ones, and there's more "space" to trap something in the second series with A23. Don't be fooled by the 34 "five trap" - it's pretty much non-functioning unless dealer holds *two* fives.

Cards are good enough that I'm certainly thinking about offensive pegging in the discard. Even with a bad cut, I doubt that A23K is so much worse than 234K on defense, especially if you just hold your breath and lead the King.

Checking Liam, the maximally offensive 23KK (A4) only outscores 234K and A23K by .4 and .6, respectively, but the crib is worse by 1.6 or 1.7, so I'd say it's not worth it - pegging would make up most of that gap, maybe even close it. But that's just an opinion. Anyone who thinks they know the perfect discard/play in every situation is kidding themselves - cribbage is still uncharted territory after all these years.

Comparing A23K and 234K - A23K is worse by 0.2. It could easily make that up in the pegging, imo, and it's probably nearly a toss-up between these two, along my line of thought. Really I'm inclined to say that A23K would make up 0.2 and a little more.

Sweet cut, play max offense and lead the King.

Alright I'm gonna finish off this game with Bozo Mae posting the last three hands together, so apologies for the length, but I hope it's been half as much fun to read as it has been to write. As you'll recall, I had made a wild (but imo perfectly justifiable) discard at 63-72*, it'd gone horribly wrong, and on the seventh deal we're at...

7.) 72*-91

I had an easy discard choice - tossed the super weak A9 to hold JJQK. At this score, again a double marginal, I probably can't afford defense, unless I cut a five or get a quadruple run or something like that.

Bozo also had an easy one. He tossed the QK balk to hold 2567.

The cut was a nine. So it sorta hits my A9 toss, but I'm still not very hopeful there. I have to play on and take my chances. And Bozo too is left holding a relatively weak, 7 point hand. He decides to go for it and play offense - probably the right call at this score; if he was at closer to 85, he would have likely played more defensively.

Pegging went: 7-J(17)-6(23)-"go"-5(28)-2(30-1)//J-Q(20)-K(30-4).

Nothing too remarkable there. He led the seven to entice a fifteen, but against my high ranks had to play out his whole hand for a measly "go". I got to run off my JQK for three+last. Second time the pegging has gone that way this game. I had an nine point hand with nob and a 2 point crib - Bozo's balk landed yet again, aided by the fact that I myself had thrown a balk.

So next hand we're at...

8.) 87-99*

I guess my situation has kind of improved... I've fallen one point in the "back", but at least Bozo's surplus in the front is only 4 points as opposed to six. Still pretty much the same game here, a double marginal. As my brother likes to say, "it's simple, you just have to get good cards and I have to get bad cards".

Easy discard - we need offense and defense, right? I was dealt 7899QK. Perfect, a decent balk and a good hand.

Bozo had 24446T and tossed himself 2T. Nothing much else you can do with that hand.

The cut was... a 9! So I now have a seventeen point hand. This is no longer a double marginal, but a heavily defensive position with oppo only 4 points past par. We all win games like that all the time, though the odds are still certainly against us.

Bozo has an eight point hand and 29T?? in the crib.

Pegging went 9-6(15-2)-9(24)-4(28-1)//7-4(11)-8(19)-4(23-1)
I led the nine for fewest losers. Maybe leading the seven or eight would be somehow more clever, but I didn't see that in the moment, and still don't.

Bozo took the fifteen, keeping his 444 together. Even though he knew I might be enticing such a reply, a four does have more losers. He also may have decided to "shift" to a more offensive posture seeing my lead matched the cut card. Then I played another nine to drive up the count, although again maybe there's some super subtle reason to play something else that I'm missing. The rest of the play was straightforward.

My QK balk hit home - Bozo had a 0 crib. And only, like I said, an average 8 point hand. So the score on the final deal is...

9.) 104*-111

Oh man, like something in a book.

I dealt myself A235JK and tossed the 5J. At this score, ofc I don't need to tell you, you discard for max scoring, then hope and pray that your crib tides you over regardless of the cut, and play max defense in the pegging.

Bozo was dealt 89TT. I forgot to write down his crib toss.

The cut was an eight. So that's game. In a live match, Bozo would have just laid out his cards and we'd call it quits (assuming no spread points, which are an abomination).

Pegging went: 8-K(18)-9(27)-3(30)-"go"-A(31-2)//T-2(12)-T(22-1)

I think the K reply to the 8 is best on defense even if it leaves you with the bunched A23. The risk of getting into low-card trouble is probably lower than the risk of pone fifteening a low-card reply, imo.

So that's that, a not-so-close loss. I did run into him again the other day and got my revenge, but the game wasn't nearly as interesting - I got really good cards, he got bad cards, game over. So until me and Inushtuk do ours, I'll keep "hunting" for one worth writing up, and thanks for reading! I would encourage anyone else to try their hand at the same thing. You can take a screenshot with a simple keystroke, and depending on what site you're playing you do that maybe a couple of times a hand, and that's everything. The first time you do it it's awkward and annoying but you quickly get used to it.
horus93 says: Mulling it over more, maybe it's not so much that it's easier to play off the lower ranks. Because if anything the 234 might be better for that. More that the A23 is better for a trap in the first series, like the 31-5 example I gave. Idk, my gut says it seems to peg way better for me :) But here's more evidence. Let's say dealer has AA3X - by my playout 234X only got a 15 and gets its trey trapped, but A23X gets a pair and traps dealer's ace for 5 points in pegging. Etc.
JQT says: Dealt (2 4 4 4 6 T), Toss (6 T) is possibly 'just as good as' Toss (2 T), in spite of the 5 Card Cut "Bounty" for (4 4 4 6), as well as the slightly better (2 T) discard, since (2 4 4 4) is 'boosted' to at least a Dozen Points by Seventeen Cuts (3333, 4, 5555, 7777, 9999), while (4 4 4 6) does so after only Thirteen Cuts (AAAA, 4, 5555, 7777), which is more than 30% less. These are nearly equal hands once all factors are looked at, although almost reluctantly, Halscrib does side with Toss (2 T) as well, yet at (99*-87), it's definitely a "First World Problem" for the Dealer. Yet, with a 9 Card Cut in your game, it would have been a significant change. With all those 4 Cards, what's the worst thing that can happen? Imagine this: (4 9 T J) vs (4 4 4 6): Pegging could proceed: 9 (9) 6 (15=2) 4? (19) 4 (23=2) "go" 4 (27=6) 4 (31=14), T (10) J (20-1), so the Dealer can ultimately out-peg Pone by a factor of 24-to-1! Who would be so silly?
JQT says: Let's look at a very entertaining "mishap" that occurred to me almost eighteen years ago, with very similar cards: we must first rewind our clocks to Wednesday Evening, February 1, 2006, when my Dad was trailing me in a high-stakes game at (88*-103). With a Fifteen-Point Lead, what could go wrong? As Pone, I decided to Keep (4 6 6 T) and Toss (2 Q), and my Dad had Keep (3 4 4 4) and Toss (T Q), so we see some of the familiar players onstage! To add insult to what would soon be my injury, the Cut Card was an 8 Card. I led a 6 Card from my PAIR, and my Dad unloaded the 'oddball' Trey as the Dealer, and had three 4 Cards remaining, and he cashed-in big-time when I later absent-mindedly and mistakenly then played a 4 Card at the worst possible moment: at a Count of Nineteen, pushing the Count up to Twenty-Three. After this, he played one of his two remaining 4 Cards (I had to say "go" after the first one), for a memorable Father-Son Thrashing in Pegging: 6 (6) 3 (9) 6 (15-2) 4 (19) 4? (23-2) 4 (27=6) "go" 4 (31=14), T (10-1), so he ultimately out-pegged me 20-to-5, as I did get Last Card, whoopie. After I tallied my Hand of Two Points, he proceeded to WIN quite easily, and I calculated that my mistake was so-so bad, he could have actually won the game after such a colossal blunder, after Pegging Twenty Holes, and with his Hand of Fourteen Points and Crib worth Two Points, from an initial score of, don't laugh, (85*-113). Perhaps the funniest thing about this whole endgame was that when I was trying to document the slaughter while it was occurring, we both realized that in our mutual excitement, my Dad had actually forgotten to peg the PAIRS Royal for (27=6), and so his Front Peg was sitting at about Hole 118, and we might have then duked it out at (120*-118). I conceded however, and chalked up his well-earned VICTORY without hesitation, since my own excitement for his Double PAIRS Royal Pegging was likely what caused the rare oversight. In what must have been tens of thousands of games that we had played over the decades, this was the only time I can ever recall altering a score on a Cribbage Board as well as conceding a game.
horus93 says: Thanks for reading. I think you are right that 6T is a very viable option, hardly a bad play, maybe even best, and I was incorrect to say 2T was a no-brainer. Liam has it south by 0.4 BUT as you point out the numbers are distorted here by the outlier five cut. And at least to me 4446 and 2444 don't look extremely different on offense or defense in the pegging (pretty bad on both lol). I agree that 49TJ vs 4446 could be a doomsday scenario, though I would have led the four as would probably most people here. But a good example of how very small oversights or moments of muddleheadedness in the pegging can end up costing you a *ton* of points. The pegout you describe is amusing - it looks to me like you played perfectly at first, and your dad was being a bit eccentric - then again there may have been a method to his madness... he probably knew you wouldn't take an enticed 15-5. But like you said would've been better to escape with the T. Cribbage is a very complicated game indeed. And, ironically, the most complicated and skillful part is worth the *least* amount of points. Many ancient card games are like this - All Fours for example. I sometimes think it reflects the sort of heavily Augustinian Christianity that was current on both sides of the "great divide" when these games were invented.
cribbagepogo
3262 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 10:17 AM
Realy 46% who care the difference in the K's?
RubyTuesday
979 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Monday 11:29 AM
I threw K 4, but I think I should have gone with the crowd and thrown K A.
horus93 says: No! Don't listen to them! They are leading you away from the path of truth!!!!
Gougie00
5816 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 12:16 PM
I went wide. Lead the 3.
Sgt Pegger
353 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Monday 1:19 PM
K & A, lead the 2. With this hand & the 2 lead, I expect to get 2-4 pegging points minimum. I love this hand because it has a dual personality of sorts. The hand should be a wonderful opportunity for pegging points and the cut card will likely help us (only the 7 hurts us here). At the same time, it's also one of the better defensive throws to the pones crib.
Eolus619 says: wow..yea Sgt...welcome..see you often on ACC ecribbage..NICE!!!!
wetbomb
70 votes

Joined: April 2022

 
 
 
Monday 3:54 PM
keeping the King of Spades or the King of clubs is essentially the same move, so that makes my choice actually the 2nd most popular.
I've been playing sevral games every day at cards.jd.com and I believe I have risen to the level of "not horrible".
I have 2 very basic questions. i get that the answer may differ depending on dealer/pone or how the game is going, but as a general rule is it better to keep one run of 3 or 2 disconnected pairs? I lean towards the run because while it is one fewer point, it has a much better possibility for enhancement.

The second question is is it EVER correct to separate a pair of 5's?
Ras2829 says: Hi wetbpomb: If dealing often correct to separate pair of fives. In hands such as 3-3-4-5-5-X, 4-4-5-5-6-X, 4-5-5-J-Q-K, and many others, one of those fives ought to be in your crib. Assuming that you are not interested in separating if discarding on the other side of the board.
wetbomb says: No I'm not that generous. Ras, are you the one who once offered to share some pages of info with me? I think it was you. I wrote down your email, but it's hopelessly buried in my mess, and I can't find it.
MiketheExpert says: My suggested hand of the day which may get featured in about 2 months time - (5-5-6-6-6-10), dealing from 52*-58. Keep the 2 fives in your hand, throw them both in the crib, or separate them? :-)
wetbomb says: let's throw them both in my crib. At least 6 points in my hand is not bad, plus a potential big crib.
superdow
123 votes

Joined: February 2016

 
 
 
Monday 4:04 PM
well A K is the best toss to opponent and it leaves me with an excellent hand.
Coeurdelion
5666 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:01 AM
I'll look at 2-3-4-K (A-K), A-2-3-K (4), 2-3-K-K (A-4) and perhaps A-2-3-4 (K-K):

2-3-4-K: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.30) = +½pt

A-2-3-K: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.36) = +½pt

2-3-K-K: 6pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = 0pt

A-2-3-4: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.65) = -1¾pts

Potential:

2-3-4-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, KK = 18 cuts.

A-2-3-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 9999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, KK = 14 cuts.

2-3-K-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/10/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, KK = 18 cuts.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense and try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

I think 2-3-4-K and A-2-3-K will peg well but playing Offense I think A-2-3-4 will peg best.

Summary:

2-3-4-K and A-2-3-K have the best starting value by ½pt over 2-3-K-K and 2¼pts over A-2-3-4. 2-3-4-K has more cuts for improvement than A-2-3-K although 2-3-4-K has 18 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 18 cuts for 8-14pts with A-2-3-K. A-2-3-4 has guaranteed improvement with 38 cuts for 7-10pts and it should peg best but I don't think it will catch up the 2¼pts so I'll throw an A-K.
HalscribCLX
5391 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 2:02 AM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-3-4-K____7.91+2.07+(-3.93)=6.05____27.2____26.4
A-2-3-K____7.74+2.00+(-3.98)=5.76____26.5____25.2
A-2-3-4____8.09+1.96+(-5.62)=4.43____27.9____23.3
2-3-K-K____8.30+1.30+(-5.74)=3.86____25.4____22.9

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-4-K_______36.5____48.3
A-2-3-K_______37.0____49.2
A-2-3-4_______42.1____52.4
2-3-K-K_______39.3____52.0

2-3-4-K is best for expected averages by 0.29pt. over A-2-3-K and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select an A-K to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead the K and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
K_____________________1.87
3_____________________1.58
4_____________________1.55
2_____________________1.55