Thursday 3:12 AM

Need a little boost to get back on track. Hoping that this, "triple nickel", hand can deliver it. Not too excited by 2-8 in my crib though.

Thursday 3:53 AM

14 with a 6 cut (and possibilities in the crib). Also 12 with a 3 or a 4 turn card. So a hand with deceptively solid prospects. Pegging potential as well.

Thursday 4:05 AM

While we are not even midway into this game, not only are we already trailing our Opponent by Seventeen Holes (more than half a street), we are Dealing around Nine Points 'shy' of the Second Street Par Hole 44. Meanwhile, Pone is Eighteen Holes away from reaching the Third Street Par Hole 70, which although this proves to be an ambitious target, if attained it would place our Opponent a FULL CYCLE ahead of us! 🚲

We've dealt ourselves an interesting arrangement, which contains four Small Cards (including a PAIR of 4 Cards), as well as a 5 Card and an 8 Card. Most notably, a FLUSH is present; we always look for these, because otherwise they can be overlooked or missed.

We could of course retain the FLUSH and Toss (4s 8s), or we might hold onto the 'chewy center' and Keep (2 4 4 5) and Toss (A 8), or we could 'go binary' and Keep (A 2 4 8) and Toss (4h 5h), and aim for that elusive, Twenty-Four-Point Crib! Placing the PAIR into our Crib with Toss (4 4) is an alternative long-shot at a Twenty-Four-Point Crib, but we should remember that while throwing a PAIR in our Crib can often be a good idea, it is frequently not the best approach if another competing idea is present. This is because any time we have an abundance of something, the odds that our Opponent will even be dealt this same card rank are greatly diminished.

One last-ditch idea would be to retain all four Small Cards and Keep (A 2 4 4) and Toss (5 8), but this smells of desperation, and without the 5 Card or any card of Higher Rank, these hands don't often peg that well. Only the FLUSH guarantees that we shall always have at least Six Points in our Hand, something perhaps not readily apparent.

Our huge deficit screams for some kind of action, and Toss (4 5) just may fit the bill. But somehow, I think it's too soon to 'SCRAM' and press the "A-Zed5" Button (for you Chernobyl 1986 Fans -- I know you're out there!), and I think the FLUSH will be the best way to at least try to prevent this reactor from going into a full meltdown. ☢

Here's my Top Secret "Nuclear Cred": In a previous life, at age twenty-one, when 'I wore a younger man's clothes' (and not too many years before the "Incident at Reactor 4" in Pripyat, Ukraine occurred), I had already been married for several months, had gotten a 'Q' Clearance, and was working for the government (Ours) at Sandia Laboratories, inside one of many purportedly "hollow" mountains located adjacent to Kirtland Air Force Base, south of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

At this time, I had been riding my childhood, broken-down 10-speed-bike to-and-from work each day through what would later be dubbed "The War Zone" (refer to "Breaking Bad" for details) or what you might call Central Ave, also once (and still) known as the infamous Route 66. Although it already exceeded more than three-fourths of my life at that time, I don't believe my Cribbage Career, at this early age, in any way helped me to attain a Top Secret, Weapons Clearance; but I also like to think that it didn't hurt much, either. End of Crib Cred Crud (although I think it would be interesting to investigate and produce a White Paper on how many Cribbage Aficionados also work in areas of secrecy, government work, espionage, or cryptography).

Where was I? The FLUSH seems best, whether we're Dealer or Pone! Usually when we are the Dealer, we attempt to stow a 5 Card into our Crib, but by holding the FLUSH, we can retain the 5 Card in our Hand and use it for its Pegging Prospects. As I say often in this arena, and reiterated on Oct 24th and even more recently, "A FLUSH is often a 'Problem Solver' in Cribbage, and seldom will a FLUSH cause trouble where none exists." I'm not sure it can fully help us with our severe Positional Disadvantage here, but it might go a long way toward "digging us out" of this predicament.

Let's Toss (4s 8s) today, and retain the FLUSH in Hearts. 💟

After the 6h Cut Card, we now have "Be-Da-Da-Bum" Ten Points in our Hand, with prospects for a mediocre Crib, unless of course Pone 'coughed up' a few 'odd' ranking Cards!

Let's map out today's FLUSH and take a good look at many of its subtle mysteries, as this is clearly the Hand with the highest Expected Average:

(35*-52) (Ah 2h 4s 4h 5h 8s) Cut = 6h by horus93 on Dec 7, 2023.

Keep (Ah 2h 4h 5h) Toss (4s 8s)

Expected Hand Average is 373 DIV 46 = 8.109
Expected Crib Value (Hessel) is 3.720
Total is 11.829

01x12= 12 - 3h (Maximum Hand, 1 cut = 12 Points)
03x11= 33 - 333 (4 cuts >= 11 Points)
01x10= 10 - 6h (5 cuts >= 10 Points)
09x09= 81 - 666, 8h, 9h, Th, Jh, Qh, Kh (14 cuts >= 9 Points)
22x08=176 - 44, 555, 88, 999, TTT, JJJ, QQQ, KKK (36 cuts >= 8 Points)
01x07= 07 - 7h (37 cuts >= 7 Points)
09x06= 54 - AAA, 222, 777 (Minimum Hand, 9 Cuts = 6 Points)
46 ___ 373

Let's listen to the infamous Francis Hillman "Scrapper" Blackwell, who was born in South Carolina, one of sixteen children, part Cherokee, and who died when I was four years old. Decades after having mostly given up his singing and his musical career, he was recorded singing this song later in life, and was ready to resume his blues career, when he was shot and killed in a mugging in Indianapolis at the age of fifty-nine in 1961.

🎶 🎶 🎶

Nobody Knows You When You're Down and Out https://youtu.be/626pNZB8xXE

Bad Liquor Blues (Compilation 1928-1935)
https://youtu.be/MWzseWk9ms8

Thursday 4:46 AM

Looking to hit the double run preferably with a 6 to hit both the hand and the crib and help get back into the game

Thursday 5:05 AM

I got bingo. Down a street, obnoxious pegging from here on out

Thursday 5:09 AM

The call here is obvious offense. Offense and more offense. I will decide a pegging strat when the lead card happens. Play well and never give up. dec

Thursday 5:30 AM

Naturally like two days after I whine about my puzzles always getting rejected, one gets through. Same thing happened last time I complained about it, lol. Just like when you bet against a cut, that’s the very cut that comes up, and when you toss TK, you inevitably cut a five.

I’m glad it did come through though because we hardly ever see scores like this. Discarding in a close game is one thing, but a desperate game is something else. These decisions are difficult because it is not easy to weigh a high max, versus throwing for best expected averages, versus big pegging coups, etc. What about defending against a skunk, which often requires an opposite strategy? A lot of the time at apparently hopeless scores, defense will actually maximize your (slim) odds of winning, and I love pulling off those “submarine” victories.

But at 35*-52, -7/+20, our best hope to win is to peg and discard aggressively and hope we keep getting good hands.

For dodging the skunk, the RP is +23/-7 with a relatively small four point deficit to dodge it with one fewer counts – I think defense is the best way to beat a skunk with these cards, barring a great cut which would push me toward offense.

I’d rather play to win for now; a skunk is threatened, but not so much as to give up. This game *is* winnable – orbitals thinks dealer has a 20% shot at this score.

Well, I’m beating around the bush a little bit because despite being the submitter, I have thoroughly puzzled myself this morning, with no memory of which I think is right and a number of apparently viable options, many of which improve with every cut.

2458 starts with two, improves with every cut, and gets A4 in the crib.

2448 has opening for a huge cut in the trey, and lets us throw A5.

2445 has some huge cuts, but a bad crib toss in the A8, looks hopenotic to me (but more below).

A445 triple nickle, lame crib toss.

A448 has a double nickle, and we throw 25 which is even better than A5.

A244 – big cuts, 58 in the crib, probably not the best choice though.

A258 improves on every cut, and everyone loves 44. 44 probably has, next to 45, the best odds of giving us a really explosive crib.

A248 – another one that improves on every cut, and we get to toss my favorite 45.

[A245] flush – improves on every cut but from *four*, not two, double nickle; but one of the lamest crib tosses available here in the 48.

I think it comes down to the A248 (45), best crib toss; and [A245] (48), best hand. The more “hopenotic” choices look like red herrings. These hands are friggin tricky to count too, especially the flush. But maybe I’m overthinking this, and maybe it isn’t so difficult… it pays to flush. The problem with the flush is that it maxes out at 12 and usually scores 8 or less, and the 48 gives up plenty of 0-2 point cribs. But the 48 can still do well with luck; the A248 just has too many cuts for four, as much as I want to reason my way into tossing 45.

There’s the question of aiming for the right side of the curve, but it’s too early for that to be the overriding consideration. Still, it’s not… *not* a consideration.

Checking Liam, the flush is on top by 0.4 in hand+crib at 11.7. One I wrote off as hopenotic, 2445 (A8) is tied for second at 11.3. Along with it is the A248 (45) I looked at, also at 11.3. And I’d say A244 (58) is also basically tied at 11.2. They drop off from there.

It’d be great to score 20+ here. 2445 is on top for this at 5.5%, compared to 1.2% for mine, or 2.7% for the 45 toss. So checking the numbers, given that it’s only a 0.4 difference in hand+crib, and it looks like it could do well on offensive pegging, and it’s best for 20+, 2445 is a very good choice. I think it is very close between that and the flush.

The case for 2445 would be, “you need to gamble, it’s do or die time, the position is horrible, it’s not even that much of a gamble anyway.” The case for the flush would be “there are a number of hands to go, and I think the misses with 2445 would hurt me more than the big cuts would help me”. Couldn’t tell you which is right.

Sweet cut, would take any pegs offered, as they say. Better cut for the 2445 crowd…

Back to my game with Denmark of Denmark.

3.) 27*-22

+11/-10 is a balanced score; I’ll play optimally or even aggressively if the cards are mediocre or bad, and defensively with great cards.

I tossed myself 3Q to hold a six point flush, [689Q], surely the only viable option.

Denmark also tossed off-suit 3Q to hold 699Q. Easy choice for him too.

The cut was a King. So at +11/-10, with a mere six points in hand and a weak crib toss which is probably not helped by the King cut, I’m leaning toward offense. The shorthand numbers are based on averages; the dealer average is 16; I’m probably way south of sixteen, and Denmark’s deficit gives me a buffer because even offensive play won’t normally make up a ten point negative all in one go. So it’s Denmark’s 699Q versus my [689Q] flush.

Pegging went: 9-6(15-2)-6(21-2)-Q(31-2)//9-9(18-2)-Q(28-1)//8(1)

Denmark played pretty aggressively here, but even though his hand isn’t super good, it was a viable strategy. Consider, when I fifteen’d his 9 lead, had he played his other nine, I’d often have had a seven to go with my six and he’d give up a 31. If he played his Queen making the count 25, he has no defense against low card coups. So why not just pair it, and normally give up 2 at worst? And that’s what happened – he paired me, and I got a 31 with my queen.

He led his other nine in the second series for fewest losers. It’s also quite possible I held a pair of queens myself, and he’d get an easy two that way. But, as frequently, the mathematically optimal play screwed him over – I had the third nine, took the pair, and the cards played themselves from there.

So I pegged seven points at very little risk, good stuff at 27*-22. He only pegged three.

My hand was six points; my crib was 33QQK, four points. His hand was ofc six points. So on the fourth hand we’re at…

4.) 44-31*

Similar to the last score though the gap has widened a hair – a “balanced” (viz. unbalanced) position, +12/-11.

I was dealt 3568JQ. I think a lot of people would toss 38 hoping for a 4 or 7 cut and not seeing a big difference between 38 and 36 as crib tosses. They’d be right as far as the crib goes (it’s only a 0.3 difference by Liam), but 56JQ can be a lousy pegger for pone (bad eleven, bad 16, touching cards, 56 being the worst touchers to hold for pone), so I decided to forget about the lucky cut I never get and toss 36 to hold 58JQ, sacrificing 0.5 in hand for a safer pegger and somewhat safer crib toss. Wouldn’t do it this way every game, but I don’t think it’s a bad move.

Denmark had an easy one, tossing himself A2 to hold 55QK.

The cut was an eight. So I have six points and I’m looking at cautious offense. It’s my 58JQ vs Denmark’s 55QK.

Pegging went 5-K(15-2)-J(25)-5(30-1)//8-Q(18)-Q(28-3)//5(1)

I wouldn’t always lead a five here, but it’s not as crazy as it looks. Between the offensive upside of pairing a X response, and the defensive upside of ditching a dangerous card, I’d maintain it’s not a terrible idea. A hand like 58JQ is certainly vulnerable to five traps. In this case, leading the five only gave up one more point than the “sensible” 8 would have done, and against some hands it would have staved off a real disaster. This is often the case with five leads – even when they don’t work as planned on offense or defense, they only give up a point more than something else.

An important concept in Schell is “prevent defense”. In “prevent defense”, you’re not so much trying to make the play that gives up the fewest points in means, but your position is such that you’re more concerned with blocking an explosion. I’d see this score as one where “prevent defense” is pretty justifiable, although I don’t pretend to know with certainty that it was the best play, and like I said wouldn’t have always done it this way.

Anyway – Denmark got his cheap fifteen, I ditched my Jack, another dangerous card. In the second series, 8 lead is pretty clear, I was hoping for a Queen response and got one.

Denmark had a five point crib (A2368) and a ten point hand, so with pegging factored in he’s pone at 50. Still in no-man’s land, really, but he has improved his standing. And my six point hand, with the three managed to pick up in the pegging, let’s me maintain my advantage dealing at 53*. 53*-50, +11/-9.

Thursday 6:25 AM

I went with the flush and missed out on a 14 point hand! I played this out on CribPro and lucked out on the pegging, ending with (53,62*), cutting my deficit from 17 to 9 points. Can't complain about that...

Thursday 6:36 AM

I see the explanations above..there are multiple paths ..all with sound logic…every keep needs cut help..the flush gets it from 13/13 ranks..but no double run possible..while board position is grim all is not lost..the cycle is likely not to hold to being exact…….( 103*-114) the goal is to be dealing from 105+ ( a BIG chore ) and have current Pone counting first from under 111 ( easier? ..I think so) so slowing Pone down four points is doable…the cycle ..again its an average ..so the future is uncertain .. both in cribbage & and in life ❗️

Thursday 7:52 AM

Ok you guys.....my head can't take this being aligned with the majority (so far).
Seems like I see this hand more times than I can count, and it always seems to bear pretty good results over the long run for me. Also seems like a 3 gets cut most often with this hold. Anyway…..
I’m looking to be very aggressive at this point in my pegging. I will most often lead a 4 in this position. But I can be a squirrel depending on my pone’s known tendencies and as ridiculous as it sounds…. even lead the 5, which makes no sense, but very rarely I may want to get inside my pone’s head at this time and sacrifice the ez 2 points here…… and maybe grab some back later.
As I’ve stated in previous “flush choices”, I tend to hold the flush first and then make the surrounding cards justify not going that way. So, I’ve tried holding the flush here, but it never seems to provide well for either the hand or the crib and it seems like you end-up in a “stuck” position with the pegging. So, for me the flush in this position is not an option.
Let me get this straight horus93……you’re whining about your cribbage hands not being shown as an offering to this site? Hmmmmm odd for a true cribbage player to ever whine about their hands. lol
😂

Thursday 8:05 AM

Call me crazy but I'm not ready to consider this game as good as lost at -17 points. Also, I can find 195 examples of the opponent having 50 or more points and a 15 point or greater lead.

Thursday 8:55 AM

We need a jump here to get back into this game. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 all help this hand nicely, with 3, 4 and 6 being all significant cuts. I like the pegging prospects as well.

For those going to Wolfboro, NH this weekend, looking forward to seeing you there. Safe travels.

Thursday 9:25 AM

Running late today with a rushed analysis. Tossed A-8. From the peg positions I need offense or this game may get away. Excellent comments above

Thursday 9:30 AM

Bingo! Tough position to play, but I think the flush affords too many good opportunities to pass up in terms of cut growth potential, and flexibility for pegging, despite the less than stellar crib toss of (4 8). I did also consider (4 5) suited toss, and (A 8), although the latter seems to smack a little of desperation, for which it could be a mite too early.

Thursday 9:40 AM

I kept the flush, and am happy I did so, for the reasons others have given above.

Thursday 10:57 AM

I like the flush worth 6 points minimum; and I still have a Magic Eleven. Offense to the lead.

Thursday 1:33 PM

It matters not which strategy choice; it pays to flush. Without doing the associated math, the flush has the edge in combined values by about .5. Of course, 17 points down am thinking offense at all decision points. Considered only discards of 4-8 and A-8. The former has the edge on potential hand size and crib score. Peg points actually favor holding 2-4-4-5 although the pegging advantage is just a few hundredths. Will play on the lead and take any pegs offered.

Thursday 3:47 PM

Flush, of course!

Thursday 5:18 PM

I'll look at A-2-4H-5 (4S-8), 2-4-4-5 (A-8), A-2-5-8 (4-4) and A-2-4S-8 (4H-5):

A-2-4H-5: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.83) = 8pts

2-4-4-5: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 7¾pts

A-2-5-8: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 7¾pts

A-2-4S-8: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 8½pts

Potential:

A-2-4H-5: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/11pts with 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/12/14pts with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 9999 = 20 cuts.

A-2-5-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6pts with 222, 3333, 555, 7777, 888 = 17 cuts.

A-2-4S-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 888 = 15 cuts.

Position:

We're 9pts short of 2nd street positional hole and Pone is already 8pts past it so I'll play Offense to try to catch up.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well. All have low cards, a middle card or a 5 while each has a 3-card magic eleven. The flush, of course, will be hardest to read.

Summary:

A-2-4S-8 has the best starting value by ½pt over A-2-4H-5. Three of the hands have guaranteed improvement but 2-4-4-5 only has 4 fewer cuts and it has 20 cuts for 8-14pts. The flush starts ¼pt ahead of 2-4-4-5 and has 0.20pt. extra potential for a heart cut while it has 36 cuts for 8-11pts. So I'll keep the flush and throw the 4S-8.

Thursday 5:18 PM

I'll look at A-2-4H-5 (4S-8), 2-4-4-5 (A-8), A-2-5-8 (4-4) and A-2-4S-8 (4H-5):

A-2-4H-5: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.83) = 8pts

2-4-4-5: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.80) = 7¾pts

A-2-5-8: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 7¾pts

A-2-4S-8: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.48) = 8½pts

Potential:

A-2-4H-5: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/11pts with 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 36 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

2-4-4-5: Improves with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/12/14pts with 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 9999 = 20 cuts.

A-2-5-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 5/6pts with 222, 3333, 555, 7777, 888 = 17 cuts.

A-2-4S-8: Improves with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 6/8pts with AAA, 222, 3333, 44, 888 = 15 cuts.

Position:

We're 9pts short of 2nd street positional hole and Pone is already 8pts past it so I'll play Offense to try to catch up.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well. All have low cards, a middle card or a 5 while each has a 3-card magic eleven. The flush, of course, will be hardest to read.

Summary:

A-2-4S-8 has the best starting value by ½pt over A-2-4H-5. Three of the hands have guaranteed improvement but 2-4-4-5 only has 4 fewer cuts and it has 20 cuts for 8-14pts. The flush starts ¼pt ahead of 2-4-4-5 and has 0.20pt. extra potential for a heart cut while it has 36 cuts for 8-11pts. So I'll keep the flush and throw the 4S-8.

Thursday 5:19 PM

Oops!

Thursday 5:19 PM

At 358-52 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %___W6 %
A-2-4H-5___8.11+3.63+3.69=15.43____2.5____11.3
2-4-4-5____7.78+3.70+3.60=15.08____2.7____11.5
A-2-4S-8___4.83+3.35+6.48=14.66____2.2____10.5
A-2-4-4____4.70+3.33+5.49=14.52____2.0_____8.9

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
A-2-4H-5_______26.0____68.5
2-4-4-5________24.2____66.6
A-2-4S-8_______24.1____67.9
A-2-4-4________33.2____72.5

A-2-4H-5 is best for expected averages by 0.35pt. over 2-4-4-5 but 2-4-4-5 is slightly best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. As we're approaching a critical board position I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select A-8 to discard.

After the 6H cut I'll play Offense to the lead.